Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

Wildman Rocketry
madcow rocketry
SilicdyneTRF
The Rocketry Forum

Help Support The Rocketry Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
Antares JS said:
It seems the final word is that the missiles that landed in Poland were most likely air defense missiles fired by Ukraine that missed their targets.
Click to expand...
Yes it is interesting on all the posts that jumped to the conclusion that it was a Russian missile. Lessons learned here.
 
jderimig said:
Yes it is interesting on all the posts that jumped to the conclusion that it was a Russian missile. Lessons learned here.
Click to expand...
Speaking as a leaper to conclusions, it does point to needing to take initial media reports with a much larger grain of salt. In defense of the leapers, the initial media reports did heavily imply if not outright state that the missile was Russian. The direction of the initial media reports were accompanied by enough "confirming information" (various local leaders saying it was a Russian attack, Russian ambassador summoned to the Polish Foreign Ministry, etc.) that it might seem reasonable to assume that the missile was from Russia. Again, lesson learned about grains of salt, at least until 12-24 hours has passed.

It was also interesting (and frustrating) to see a dozen different "experts" conclusively identifying the parts/debris as being from half a dozen different missiles.
 
boatgeek said:
Speaking as a leaper to conclusions, it does point to needing to take initial media reports with a much larger grain of salt. In defense of the leapers, the initial media reports did heavily imply if not outright state that the missile was Russian. The direction of the initial media reports were accompanied by enough "confirming information" (various local leaders saying it was a Russian attack, Russian ambassador summoned to the Polish Foreign Ministry, etc.) that it might seem reasonable to assume that the missile was from Russia. Again, lesson learned about grains of salt, at least until 12-24 hours has passed.

It was also interesting (and frustrating) to see a dozen different "experts" conclusively identifying the parts/debris as being from half a dozen different missiles.
Click to expand...
I am probably the biggest offender, I sometimes leap to conclusion before the event happened.

Edit: Of the four parties, Duda and Zelinsky leaped first, Russia may have been telling the truth this time, and the Biden administration was the most correctly cautious, perhaps they knew.
 
In truth, it was a Russian(USSR) missile, it just wasn't fired by Russia. Both sides using former USSR hardware has made many aspects of this war harder and others easier. Harder to identify the source of the hardware and easier to bolster Ukraine's stocks with captured hardware.
 
jderimig said:
I am probably the biggest offender, I sometimes leap to conclusion before the event happened.

Edit: Of the four parties, Duda and Zelinsky leaped first, Russia may have been telling the truth this time, and the Biden administration was the most correctly cautious, perhaps they knew.
Click to expand...
Odds are there was a airborne Rivet Joint aircraft and AWACS aircraft and just about anything flying was recorded, by doing a "playback" of the information it is highly likely that the origin/launch position and therefore the respondsible party is known to the powers that be.
 
rharshberger said:
Odds are there was a airborne Rivet Joint aircraft and AWACS aircraft and just about anything flying was recorded, by doing a "playback" of the information it is highly likely that the origin/launch position and therefore the respondsible party is known to the powers that be.
Click to expand...
Thats exactly what happened. See my post about five posts up.
 
jderimig said:
Yes it is interesting on all the posts that jumped to the conclusion that it was a Russian missile. Lessons learned here.
Click to expand...
True 'dat.
Initial reports suggested two missile impacts, which turned out to be inaccurate.
When some civilian target goes "boom" in and around Ukraine, the two usual suspects come to mind:
  1. Liechtenstein navy
  2. Russian military
I don't believe #1 was at sea the other night, so we defaulted to #2.

Admittedly, we underestimated the probability of it being #3 - Ukraine firing AA missiles to defend against #1 or #2.
It looks like it was #3 in the end.

Next time around, I will very likely be biased to blame #1 or #2, again.
 
afadeev said:
True 'dat.
Initial reports suggested two missile impacts, which turned out to be inaccurate.
When some civilian target goes "boom" in and around Ukraine, the two usual suspects come to mind:
  1. Liechtenstein navy
  2. Russian military
I don't believe #1 was at sea the other night, so we defaulted to #2.

Admittedly, we underestimated the probability of it being #3 - Ukraine firing AA missiles to defend against #1 or #2.
It looks like it was #3 in the end.

Next time around, I will very likely be biased to blame #1 or #2, again.
Click to expand...

I think you mean the Luxembourg Navy. Although I believe they'd appreciate being mistaken for the Liechtenstein Navy. The more confusion the less likely they are to be found out.
 
modeltrains said:
One of the moderators on an autism forum named Wrong Planet lives in Poland.
And I think not overly far from the border.
I'm going with what she says here,
and going no further.
https://wrongplanet.net/forums/viewtopic.php?f=21&p=9175376#p9175376
Click to expand...
I joined Wrong Planet, a long time ago. I wasn’t really in a good spot at the time and felt really isolated, but I got some badly needed help/encouragement on there and moved on. Didn’t linger.

Good site, for those who may find it helpful.
 
Well now that the missile was confirmed both accidental and Ukrainian, I wonder what the ultimate response will be. Currently I’m betting that it’ll be a friendly request to please be more careful and maybe pay a nominal sum for cleanup after the war. Or maybe punitive actions will be directed towards Russia instead.
 
smstachwick said:
Well now that the missile was confirmed both accidental and Ukrainian, I wonder what the ultimate response will be. Currently I’m betting that it’ll be a friendly request to please be more careful and maybe pay a nominal sum for cleanup after the war. Or maybe punitive actions will be directed towards Russia instead.
Click to expand...
I would guess that the official public response will be that it was a terrible accident and it's all Russia's fault for firing the missiles near the border anyway. I've been wrong a fair amount in the last 24 hours on this topic, but I don't think I'm very far out on a limb here. There may be an additional private message to Zelenskyy to get his facts in order before blaming Russia to spare everyone the embarrassment of having to walk it back. I would be very surprised if anyone tries to get compensation out of Russia for the incident. A) Russia will just blow it off and b) it's a challenge to prove that these particular people died because of Russia's action. If Ukraine had not fired SAMs in self-defense, nobody would have been killed.
 


An observation making the rounds is that the coordinates of the Przewodów, Poland site happen to be the latitude of Kyiv ( 50.45 N) and the longitude of Lviv (24.031 E). The implication being that a Russian missile was somehow programmed with transposed target coordinates. This kind of speculation happens when there is no exculpatory evidence coming from the official sources. I get why, but it is vexing nonetheless.

edit: corrected Lviv longitude
 
Last edited:
WoShuGui said:


An observation making the rounds is that the coordinates of the Przewodów, Poland site happen to be the latitude of Kyiv ( 50.45 N) and the longitude of Lviv (20.031 E). The implication being that a Russian missile was somehow programmed with transposed target coordinates. This kind of speculation that happens when there is no exculpatory evidence coming from the official sources. I get why, but it is vexing nonetheless.
Click to expand...

In the absence of a more supported explanation, I could have accepted this as plausible. All it would have taken was for somebody to be careless with entering target coordinates.
 
Last edited:
Apparently the Russians are running low on the "good stuff", and are now launching nuclear-capable cruise missiles (KH-55, NATO AS-15 "Kent") with conventional warheads, or only concrete ballast. One theory is that they're using them as decoys to reduce the amount of air defense ammunition. This is turning out to be a war of attrition. Can Russia keep the pace? Can it resupply? Is there "more of us" than there is of them?

Now would be a *really* good time for China to move against Russia. There's no way Russia has the capability to handle two wars at the same time. If Putin ever goes nuclear, his lifetime after will be measured in minutes.
 
Cnorm said:
afadeev said:
When some civilian target goes "boom" in and around Ukraine, the two usual suspects come to mind:
  1. Liechtenstein navy
  2. Russian military
Click to expand...
I think you mean the Luxembourg Navy. Although I believe they'd appreciate being mistaken for the Liechtenstein Navy. The more confusion the less likely they are to be found out.
Click to expand...
Man, those two conniving axes-of-L's countries got the best of me.
Again.

As soon as either one of their navies comes in range of my trebuchet, they'll pay for it. I swear.
 
Last edited:
Has Zelensky seriously offended NATO and the US by falsely claiming Russia attacked Poland and calling for an Article 5 escalation to full-on WW3 with Russia? Who is really in charge of this war, him, the US, or someone else like General Cluster and Major Disaster?
 
Dotini said:
Has Zelensky seriously offended NATO and the US by falsely claiming Russia attacked Poland and calling for an Article 5 escalation to full-on WW3 with Russia? Who is really in charge of this war, him, the US, or someone else like General Cluster and Major Disaster?
Click to expand...
No. You'll note Poland discussed Article 4, which you will further recall was already invoked in February when Бункерный дед invaded.
 
Dotini said:
Has Zelensky seriously offended NATO and the US by falsely claiming Russia attacked Poland
Click to expand...
I don’t believe that is the current claim. The most notable, relevant quote from him that I found related to the spillover was:

“This is not Ukraine’s fault. Russia bears the ultimate responsibility.”

What that means to me is that if Russia had not invaded in the first place, none of this would have happened. Ukraine has a right to defend its territory and airspace, and accidents will occasionally happen during intercepts.

What I will concede on, however, is that Zelenskyy’s stance on what sort of assistance NATO should be providing has never been fully consistent beyond Ukraine needing more of it. The question of whether Ukraine desires full membership also seems to be in flux. It seems there is some disagreement on that within his government too.

That doesn’t mean that Zelenskyy is an ineffective wartime leader, though. I seriously doubt anyone else anywhere in the world has all the answers either. All of what we thought we knew went out the window in early March when Kyiv went unconquered. His value as “cheerleader in chief”, openly defying the Russian bear and standing his ground by staying in the country, is also essentially unquestioned.
 

Similar threads

B
Interesting Reading
Replies
7
Views
516
cls
C
Dotini
Serious Nation Security Threat?
3 4 5
Replies
127
Views
4K
Peartree
Peartree
smstachwick
(Un)official Star Wars Rebels Thread
2
Replies
43
Views
2K
smstachwick
smstachwick
Winston
Drunken Ukrainian Air Force Officer Smashed His Volkswagen Into A MiG-29 Fighter
Replies
14
Views
2K
rellis2
rellis2
Winston
Everything New We Just Learned About The 2020 Iranian Missile Attack On U.S. Forces In Iraq
Replies
0
Views
809
Winston
Winston

Latest posts

Back
Top