Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

ksaves2

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I used to respect Vladmir Putin and Russia. A tough country to rule but when he rolled into Ukraine, I'm hoping an assassin would put a bullet in his head, moderates take over and pull out along with helping them (the Ukrainians) recover. That's a big fat chance with the devil Putin.

Russian mothers don't want their sons to die in a stupid war. Like Vietnam 2 for Russia. They left Afghanistan to us, (Vietnam I for them) the U.S. bailed out and the radical bastids are supressing women to the N'th degree. Hope they all roast in the place where the devil lives. Kurt
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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While I think the 1-year mark is a little too optimistic, I do believe this is the most likely end result.

Of course, I’m not going to attach myself to any particular prediction, that’s going to depend on the situation at any given time.

Yeah, I’m not sure about the timeframe, obviously, but it will be interesting to see where things stand on the 1-year anniversary.

Things seem to move in fits and starts. We are now back in a period where everything feels stalled again. But we’ve seen these stalled periods suddenly break in Ukraine’s faver a few times already — Russians pulling back from Kyiv in the early days, Russians routed in Kharkiv in the summer, and Russians abandoning western Kherson in the past couple of weeks. All of those victories developed very quickly. So it seems possible to me that something similar could happen between now and the end of February.

Or it could just turn into a stalemate that grinds on for that long, or it’s even possible Russia could rally itself and go back on the offensive, but that seems pretty unlikely to me. The situation is very unpredictable. And there’s always the possibility of an outside factor making a sudden change on the battlefield possible, like if the US suddenly changed position and decided to provide ATACMS missiles or a dozen F16s.
 

cbwho

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We need to hold the line. The war is going very badly for Putin. Did you hear of his meeting with the mothers? His tone deaf talk that at least her son didn't die of vodka?
 

smstachwick

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We need to hold the line. The war is going very badly for Putin. Did you hear of his meeting with the mothers? His tone deaf talk that at least her son didn't die of vodka?
I have no way of knowing if that’s true but it wouldn’t surprise me if it was.
 

aerostadt

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The ground rules for this war are very bad for Ukraine. Russia is allowed to hit the Ukraine's homeland, but Ukraine is not allowed to hit Russia. Putin can sit in his cozy palace this winter, while Ukrainians suffer in the cold. In general the Russian people are relatively comfortable except for the families that are suffering loss of sons in the fighting. Unless, there are some drastic surprises in Russia, it is hard to see an end to this war in the foreseeable future.
 

PhilC

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Yeah, I’m not sure about the timeframe, obviously, but it will be interesting to see where things stand on the 1-year anniversary.

Things seem to move in fits and starts. We are now back in a period where everything feels stalled again. But we’ve seen these stalled periods suddenly break in Ukraine’s faver a few times already — Russians pulling back from Kyiv in the early days, Russians routed in Kharkiv in the summer, and Russians abandoning western Kherson in the past couple of weeks. All of those victories developed very quickly. So it seems possible to me that something similar could happen between now and the end of February.

Or it could just turn into a stalemate that grinds on for that long, or it’s even possible Russia could rally itself and go back on the offensive, but that seems pretty unlikely to me. The situation is very unpredictable. And there’s always the possibility of an outside factor making a sudden change on the battlefield possible, like if the US suddenly changed position and decided to provide ATACMS missiles or a dozen F16s.
I suspect that offensives will restart once the ground freezes. Ukraine seems to have a lot of options at the moment as the Russians seem to be unable to mount a sustained offensive.
If, as reported, Ukraine have a beachead on the Kinburn Spit it opens the prospect of shelling the western Crimea. It also ties down Russian forces to prevent that beachhead from expanding eastwards to flank the Russian positions on the Dnipro west bank. Russia could choose to try and dislodge this force but it could be costly.
Upstream the Russian need to keep a force in place to prevent a crossing by the Khakovka dam. This ties down more Russian forces and prevents them going to reinforce the Donbas.
A push by Ukraine into the Donbas could further reduce Russian supply lines. Thee are several options in that region which would have political and military advantages, but Ukraine needs to be careful to avoid creating salients where its forces could be vulnerable to counter attack.
My favoured option would be a push south from Zaporzhizhia to Melitopol to cut the Crimea land bridge before the Kersh bridge is fully operational. The forces behind Kherson would be very vulnerable, the nuclear plants would become indefensible, and the threat to Crimea would be a real blow to Russia. Russia will be aware of this threat and need to tie down more forces to defend against this threat.
Ukraine holds some very good cards at the moment. I'm interested to see how they play them.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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I suspect that offensives will restart once the ground freezes. Ukraine seems to have a lot of options at the moment as the Russians seem to be unable to mount a sustained offensive.
If, as reported, Ukraine have a beachead on the Kinburn Spit it opens the prospect of shelling the western Crimea. It also ties down Russian forces to prevent that beachhead from expanding eastwards to flank the Russian positions on the Dnipro west bank. Russia could choose to try and dislodge this force but it could be costly.
Upstream the Russian need to keep a force in place to prevent a crossing by the Khakovka dam. This ties down more Russian forces and prevents them going to reinforce the Donbas.
A push by Ukraine into the Donbas could further reduce Russian supply lines. Thee are several options in that region which would have political and military advantages, but Ukraine needs to be careful to avoid creating salients where its forces could be vulnerable to counter attack.
My favoured option would be a push south from Zaporzhizhia to Melitopol to cut the Crimea land bridge before the Kersh bridge is fully operational. The forces behind Kherson would be very vulnerable, the nuclear plants would become indefensible, and the threat to Crimea would be a real blow to Russia. Russia will be aware of this threat and need to tie down more forces to defend against this threat.
Ukraine holds some very good cards at the moment. I'm interested to see how they play them.

Your favored option of pushing south to Melitopol is the one I think is most likely.
 

Dotini

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According to 2nd or 3rd hand reports partially originating in Greece, the Russia general attack has begun. It is said:

Operational hubs of data exchange between the Ukrainian General Staff and NATO have been bombed. The event caused a blackout of communications between Ukrainian troops along the front line, NATO, and the Ukrainian GEETHA.

Russian has bombed Ukraine's military command and control system, as well as energy facilities associated with it.

Rail service of Ukrainian reserves has been interrupted with Russian Air Force bombing concentrations of troops and APCs.

Poles in Kharkiv suffered heavy losses when a temporary gathering of Polish soldiers were hit with more than 200 dead.

Foreign Legion training camps were hit with dozens of dead mercenaries, material and troop concentrations.

Bombing took place in Kramatorsk and Slavyansk where armed forces of Ukraine are gathering for an attack.

A ground satellite station has been bombed for the first time, a Starlink ground station.

"Its on", Lavrov is reported to have said.

Russia is reported to be currently striking along 3 lines.

CAVEAT: All the foregoing is unsubstantiated rumor. I don't see it in the mainstream US and UK media.
 

cwbullet

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According to 2nd or 3rd hand reports partially originating in Greece, the Russia general attack has begun. It is said:

Operational hubs of data exchange between the Ukrainian General Staff and NATO have been bombed. The event caused a blackout of communications between Ukrainian troops along the front line, NATO, and the Ukrainian GEETHA.

Russian has bombed Ukraine's military command and control system, as well as energy facilities associated with it.

Rail service of Ukrainian reserves has been interrupted with Russian Air Force bombing concentrations of troops and APCs.

Poles in Kharkiv suffered heavy losses when a temporary gathering of Polish soldiers were hit with more than 200 dead.

Foreign Legion training camps were hit with dozens of dead mercenaries, material and troop concentrations.

Bombing took place in Kramatorsk and Slavyansk where armed forces of Ukraine are gathering for an attack.

A ground satellite station has been bombed for the first time, a Starlink ground station.

"Its on", Lavrov is reported to have said.

Russia is reported to be currently striking along 3 lines.

CAVEAT: All the foregoing is unsubstantiated rumor. I don't see it in the mainstream US and UK media.

Be careful of what is propaganda and the truth. It is often difficult to identify,
 

cwbullet

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Agreed. IMHO there is always a lot more propaganda than truth. Truth is often the first casualty in war.
I will tell you that your first post's source was full of half-truths or no truths. It is good that you acknowledge the possibility.

In Ukraine, currently, there is a decrease in fighting, and that may preceed an attack by either side or a complete stop to the fighting. We will not know which until both sides play their hand. There were signs that one or the other might be true, I suspect it will be a long winter for one of the two participants.
 
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Funkworks

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According to 2nd or 3rd hand reports ... It is said:

"Its on", Lavrov is reported to have said.

Russia is reported to …

CAVEAT: All the foregoing is unsubstantiated rumor. I don't see it in the mainstream US and UK media.
It’s ok to say who reported this and where. That can help readers judge for themselves how reliable the information is.
 

cwbullet

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It’s ok to say who reported this and where. That can help readers judge for themselves how reliable the information is.

I think that is important. Reporting it is from Russian news or the Daily Beast is much different from Fox News, CNN, or the AP. Even though this is being reported from a Greek sources, I suspect it has a Russian Origen.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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According to 2nd or 3rd hand reports partially originating in Greece, the Russia general attack has begun. It is said:

Operational hubs of data exchange between the Ukrainian General Staff and NATO have been bombed. The event caused a blackout of communications between Ukrainian troops along the front line, NATO, and the Ukrainian GEETHA.

Russian has bombed Ukraine's military command and control system, as well as energy facilities associated with it.

Rail service of Ukrainian reserves has been interrupted with Russian Air Force bombing concentrations of troops and APCs.

Poles in Kharkiv suffered heavy losses when a temporary gathering of Polish soldiers were hit with more than 200 dead.

Foreign Legion training camps were hit with dozens of dead mercenaries, material and troop concentrations.

Bombing took place in Kramatorsk and Slavyansk where armed forces of Ukraine are gathering for an attack.

A ground satellite station has been bombed for the first time, a Starlink ground station.

"Its on", Lavrov is reported to have said.

Russia is reported to be currently striking along 3 lines.

CAVEAT: All the foregoing is unsubstantiated rumor. I don't see it in the mainstream US and UK media.

I haven’t seen anything about a big Russian offensive. Maybe there’s something everyone is overlooking, or maybe it’s misinformation.

Currently it seems like everything is bogged down — literally. The weather is wet, and the ground is muddy, so it’s not a great time for either side to attack. Maybe things will pick up in another week or two if the ground freezes. Or maybe not. It seems like nobody really knows what the next steps are right now. But it seems likely not much will happen until the weather is more favorable for heavy vehicles.
 

boatgeek

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@Dotini If you're already "concerned" about being labeled a pro-Russian stooge (see, for example your post in #5022), why on earth would you post something that is (a) in your own words unsubstantiated rumor and (b) completely contrary to how the war has gone so far?

Russia has never bombed command and control centers. Bizarrely, the Ministry of Defense in Kyiv still stands undamaged.
Russia has never widely bombed railway infrastructure except where civilians were using them for escape.
Russia hasn't been able to sustain forward motion on more than 2 axes of attack since mid-summer.

[edit] To clarify, I don't think you should not post news that is counter to the accepted Western narrative. I do think you should be careful with your sources, especially when they are not supported by any other news outlets. And if you think that something is unsubstantiated, it probably is.
 

smstachwick

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@Dotini If you're already "concerned" about being labeled a pro-Russian stooge (see, for example your post in #5022), why on earth would you post something that is (a) in your own words unsubstantiated rumor and (b) completely contrary to how the war has gone so far?

Russia has never bombed command and control centers. Bizarrely, the Ministry of Defense in Kyiv still stands undamaged.
Russia has never widely bombed railway infrastructure except where civilians were using them for escape.
Russia hasn't been able to sustain forward motion on more than 2 axes of attack since mid-summer.

[edit] To clarify, I don't think you should not post news that is counter to the accepted Western narrative. I do think you should be careful with your sources, especially when they are not supported by any other news outlets. And if you think that something is unsubstantiated, it probably is.
Indeed. Russia doesn’t seem overly concerned with winning the war so much as just inflicting suffering.
 

Dotini

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@Dotini If you're already "concerned" about being labeled a pro-Russian stooge (see, for example your post in #5022), why on earth would you post something that is (a) in your own words unsubstantiated rumor and (b) completely contrary to how the war has gone so far?

Russia has never bombed command and control centers. Bizarrely, the Ministry of Defense in Kyiv still stands undamaged.
Russia has never widely bombed railway infrastructure except where civilians were using them for escape.
Russia hasn't been able to sustain forward motion on more than 2 axes of attack since mid-summer.

[edit] To clarify, I don't think you should not post news that is counter to the accepted Western narrative. I do think you should be careful with your sources, especially when they are not supported by any other news outlets. And if you think that something is unsubstantiated, it probably is.
Well, either there is a Russian offensive underway, or there is not. It should be easy to substantiate one way or the other within a few hours of such rumors. Concerns of Russian gains are on the minds General Milley, among others, so it is a valid concern.
 

Peartree

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While not a primary news source, I usually check to see what this guy says:
https://youtube.com/@DenysDavydov

He lives in Ukraine, is normally on top of, if not ahead of, most major news sources, and posts at least daily. He posts more often if things are developing, includes more details thananyone I've seen, and makes corrections when he's wrong. If anything major, on either side, was happening, I'd expect that he'd be posting about it.
 

CalebJ

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Well, either there is a Russian offensive underway, or there is not. It should be easy to substantiate one way or the other within a few hours of such rumors. Concerns of Russian gains are on the minds General Milley, among others, so it is a valid concern.
If you're going to lead with things like 'it is said', the least you could do is acknowledge -where-. Otherwise it might as well be your own thoughts. A half hearted citation is worse than none at all.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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While not a primary news source, I usually check to see what this guy says:
https://youtube.com/@DenysDavydov

He lives in Ukraine, is normally on top of, if not ahead of, most major news sources, and posts at least daily. He posts more often if things are developing, includes more details thananyone I've seen, and makes corrections when he's wrong. If anything major, on either side, was happening, I'd expect that he'd be posting about it.

I just checked out the channel, and he seems like a good source.
 

heada

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While not a primary news source, I usually check to see what this guy says:
https://youtube.com/@DenysDavydov

He lives in Ukraine, is normally on top of, if not ahead of, most major news sources, and posts at least daily. He posts more often if things are developing, includes more details thananyone I've seen, and makes corrections when he's wrong. If anything major, on either side, was happening, I'd expect that he'd be posting about it.
I've watched many of his videos. I believe he is a commercial airline pilot. Very informative.
 

WoShuGui

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While not a primary news source, I usually check to see what this guy says:
https://youtube.com/@DenysDavydov

He lives in Ukraine, is normally on top of, if not ahead of, most major news sources, and posts at least daily. He posts more often if things are developing, includes more details thananyone I've seen, and makes corrections when he's wrong. If anything major, on either side, was happening, I'd expect that he'd be posting about it.
Yes, he does a nice daily summary, explains events from the perspective of a Ukrainian and gives insights that aren’t obvious to an outsider. Unfortunately he recently needed to leave Ukraine so his daughter could safely attend school. With the blackouts, there is not even remote learning in Ukraine.
 

heada

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This could become a deciding battle, a turning point.
The NYT article I read said it has been going on since mid summer and that it isn't likely to change much in the immediate future. What makes you think this city, which is mostly destroyed now, is so important that it could decide anything of importance?
 
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