Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

[Matt_The_RocketMan]

U.S. security officials warned that not only is Russia not withdrawing its troops, but it is making preparations to launch a combative attack.

 

[boomtube-mk2]

As much as I hate to say it; why shouldn't Putin try and take Ukraine?
Who's going to stop him?

 

[Matt_The_RocketMan]

In all technicality, it would be Ironic if Russia invades and the US has to declare war on them, giving that the Cold War would be for nothing, and sadly this may be a 3rd WW?

 

[boomtube-mk2]

I don't think it is likely that the U.S. would declare war, some of the NATO/E.U. nation's might, which could draw the U.S. into a direct conflict with Russia.
If that should happen then in the fullness of time one side or the other is going to begin ""Losing"" at which point somebody is going to start looking towards their nuclear arsenal to "Even the odds".

 

[Antares JS]

Ukraine is not worth starting world war 3 over. Even if Russia does invade, I doubt the west will take any military action to stop them.

 

[rharshberger]

In all technicality, it would be Ironic if Russia invades and the US has to declare war on them, giving that the Cold War would be for nothing, and sadly this may be a 3rd WW?

There is no fear of the US doing anything beyond "assistance" (we gave them a few guns, now we are going to whine at Putin and hope he does nothing more....), we have no commitment to Ukraine beyond friendship and a desire to see them be a democratically run country. If they were a NATO member then we would have to do something.

 

[Dotini]

In all technicality, it would be Ironic if Russia invades and the US has to declare war on them, giving that the Cold War would be for nothing, and sadly this may be a 3rd WW?

The Associated Press published this morning that the Russian government just announced massive nuclear drills commencing this weekend. But nothing to worry about, as the US has always had a "First Use" policy. And never mind that the UFOs are furiously hovering over our nuclear assets, as we have Free Will.

 

[boomtube-mk2]

Ukraine is not worth starting world war 3 over. Even if Russia does invade, I doubt the west will take any military action to stop them.

You are probably correct in that the west isn't going to go to guns with Russia over Ukraine, at least I hope they don't.
The U.S. and E.U. will impose various economic sanctions which they hope will be enough to get Putin to back-off.
How likely is that, is dependent on how much suffering Putin and the Russian people are willing to accept.

 

[Steven]

I went to the coffee shop. More fun there.

 

[jderimig]

Give all those countries Nukes. Thats the only thing that keeps the peace. Ukraine made a huge mistake by giving up its Nukes in exchange for security guarantees by the UK and the US.

 

[jderimig]

You are probably correct in that the west isn't going to go to guns with Russia over Ukraine, at least I hope they don't.
The U.S. and E.U. will impose various economic sanctions which they hope will be enough to get Putin to back-off.
How likely is that, is dependent on how much suffering Putin and the Russian people are willing to accept.

Putin won't suffer.

 

[boomtube-mk2]

Putin won't suffer.

Well, there is that.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

It’s looking pretty bleak in terms of avoiding an invasion. I don’t know if it’s just posturing or something else, but Russia is ramping up preparations, not pulling back, so if it’s not posturing, it makes most sense they are going to invade.

I don’t think the US or NATO countries will get directly involved with fighting. They will supply weapons, supplies, maybe intelligence or other aid, but American and NATO forces are not going to fight Russian forces directly. Things would have to spin completely out of control for that to happen.

The main things we can do in response are economic, which is a two-edged sword. There are things we can do to make it harder for Russia to sell its oil and gas, which would really hurt Russia, but it would also likely drive up energy prices for everyone.

Another thing we can do is give Putin more of what he doesn’t want, which is stronger NATO reinforcement in NATO nations. More troops and weapons systems positioned in the NATO nations closest to Russia.

 

[boomtube-mk2]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sue-hulett-economic-sanctions-may-212230556.html

Make of it what you will.

 

[hobie1dog]

 

[heada]

I don't remember where I saw it but Poland is very nervous and has said that if Russia looks at them twice they'll go all in since they want nothing to do with being a Russian state again. Since they've full NATO members, that'd pull all the rest of NATO in as well.

I wonder what would it be like now if 3 or 4 years ago Ukraine asked us to have a base there. Would that be enough of a deterrent?

 

[jderimig]

Buy up your Baltic Birch now.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I wonder what would it be like now if 3 or 4 years ago Ukraine asked us to have a base there. Would that be enough of a deterrent?

I think from Putin’s point of view, having US or NATO bases in Ukraine would be a major, unacceptable provocation and not a great deterrent.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I don't remember where I saw it but Poland is very nervous and has said that if Russia looks at them twice they'll go all in since they want nothing to do with being a Russian state again. Since they've full NATO members, that'd pull all the rest of NATO in as well.

What do you mean by Poland going “all in”? Would Poland make a first move?

I don’t see that as likely. I also am not sure if Poland going on the attack really obligates the rest of NATO. The NATO agreement is a mutual defense pact — an attack on one is an attack on all and will be defended by all. I don’t think it means an attack BY one is an attack BY all. That’s something I think NATO would have to agree to in advance, not get pulled into.

I think it’s more likely any threat to Poland would be handled by NATO moving defenses into Poland and NATO making it clear that an attack on Poland would met be a full NATO defense/retaliation.

I actually think that’s starting already. Russia is moving troops and equipment into Belarus, which is part of its threat to Ukraine. But that also moves Russian forces closer to Poland and the Baltic states, which are now NATO members. In response, NATO is sending more forces to Poland and the Baltic’s. Apparently everyone is nervous that even if Russia doesn’t attack Ukraine from Belarus, Russia might leave those forces in Belarus, which is a threat to NATO members that border Belarus.

 

[Matt_The_RocketMan]

There is no fear of the US doing anything beyond "assistance" (we gave them a few guns, now we are going to whine at Putin and hope he does nothing more....), we have no commitment to Ukraine beyond friendship and a desire to see them be a democratically run country. If they were a NATO member then we would have to do something.

Like how the UN didnt do anything when the Ugandans were literally being killed by their own people? Id see that with Ukraine because you have a super power who needs water to support the Crimean Peninsula, and I dont think anyone will bat an eye when it comes to Russia invading, almost like Germany did back in pre WW2 to czechoslovakia...Instituted in the hope of avoiding war, appeasement was the name given to Britain's policy in the 1930s of allowing Hitler to expand German territory unchecked.

 

[Dotini]

At this desperate hour on the eve of his own and his nation's destruction, Volodymyr Zelensky has asked Vladimir Putin for a meeting to see if it can yet be avoided.

‘What are you waiting for?’ Zelensky slams world’s ‘appeasement’; asks Putin to meet

'We will protect our country with or without [outside] support,’ vows Ukrainian president, demanding 'a shift from appeasement,' as threat of Russian invasion grows

www.timesofisrael.com

I'm hoping the conversation will go like this :

Volodymyr: "What can I do to prevent this terrible war, Vlad?"

Vladimir: "Simply stop attacking Donbas and provide me with fresh water for Crimea, and you will live a long and rich life along with your nation."

Volodymyr: "That sounds like an offer I can live with, Vlad. Done!"

 

[Citizen Baslim]

Is it about water? Is it about the ethnic Russian population inside of Ukrainian borders? Or are either of those simply convenient excuses to use credible threat to obtain what they really want? And what is it they really want?

 

[aerostadt]

They don't want a NATO country on their border.

 

[rharshberger]

They don't want a NATO country on their border.

They have several already, they just don't want anymore, so they have more fronts to worry about.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

They don't want a NATO country on their border.

I think this is really what it all comes down to.

 

[Rocket501]

In general, one of the more interesting parts of what has been happening is the intelligence game that has been going on in the background. Russia has been failing hard on its false flags when it comes to being even somewhat credible. Meanwhile, the US has often been calling Russian plans, doctrine and plots out before they happen, which has boosted US credibility while hurting Russian psy-ops.

They started with claims that they had discovered a genocide in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatists and an IED, both rather diminished by the fact that the US said they were going to make those claims several days beforehand and either no evidence or a rather incredible video for the IED. Still, this hardly counts as a ****-up considering what they did next.



The next fiasco was the so-called evacuation videos, in which the speaker's claim were recorded on the 18th, while they ended up forgetting to scrub the metadata, which proves both videos were recorded within an hour of each other on the 16th.



Basically, Russia blew up a car in an abandoned parking lot while claiming that Ukranian spies did it as part of an assassination attempt. They claim they have already caught the spy responsible who then spit out some propaganda on television. Turns out while they not only were careful to ensure there were no injuries or serious property damage, they were too cheap to blow up the actual car in question, instead sticking the plates on some old car nobody would care to lose.

Then, we come to the chlorine tank video, where spectral analysis was used to prove that it was faked as well as we've found the video (M72A5 LAW and APILAS live fire) they stole audio from. In addition, the metadata also shows it was created days before the alleged attack happened.

Hell, there's even more. The Russian seperatists are really, really bad when it comes to faking things and seem to have been utterly ignorant when it comes to metadata hygeine.

Interestingly enough, it seems that the codename for this Russian disniformation campaign is "Mongoose Leap", which was also found out due to the disaster that is their information security (the video was stored in a file of that name). That also probably helps explain why the US seems to know their plans in advance and why Russia is trying to hard to stem the leaks.

In addition, they also seem to have started to regret hyping the kindergarten shelling false flag, as that has somewhat backfired when the evidence is basically clear that Russian-backed rebels actually did it.

However, the counterpoint is that while to any informed observer, they are easily disproven, they could very well work with the domestic Russian audience. NATO seems to be providing a large amount of aid and intelligence support to Ukraine, but should Russia actually invade, will most likely not directly intervene with military forces. Instead, expect support in terms of providing intelligence, sanctions on Russia, etc.

I hope this doesn't turn into a full-blown war, but Putin sure is hell is trying his best to make it one.

Fundamentally, I disagree that this is about Putin not wanting a NATO country on his border. Sure, they say this, but in fact, I believe this to be Russian propaganda.

In general, NATO was slowly dying as countries were doing the bare minimum and questioning if it was really necessary. If Russia had just put effort into being a good neighboor for like 5 years, it would already be effectively dead. If NATO dissolved, that would actually hurt Putin's ability to maintain power, as having an external boogeyman is actually wonderful for him. It allows him to blame much of Russia's problems on NATO and the EU rather than his own leadership. Also, with the imaginary threat (and Putin knows full well that Nato will never decide to launch an offensive war again Russia) people are more willing to back hardliners like Putin versus his moderate opposition.

Russia's actions have breathed life back into NATO and will most likely lead to more countries bordering Russia to joining NATO. History shows full well that Russian promises are meaningless, but they don't dare invade a full NATO member state.

For Russia, Ukraine being a full NATO member would be bad, but manageable for Putin. However, Ukraine becoming a successful democracy? That could very well be the end of Putin as Ukraine was (despite extensive Russian meddling) rapidly on track to beat Russia in terms of per capita income in like 2-3 years pre-invasion. Russia is currently having a large number of domestic issues and by Russian standards, Putin's popularity is relatively low.

There's also Putin's nostalgic longings for the Soviet Union. Altogether, a lot of complicated factors that would take too long to explain here.

 

[dhbarr]

I think the global response will be similar to Georgia & Crimea. Papers will be shuffled, lots of tutting.

 

[Gus]

..

 

[RocketT.Coyote]

Ukraine citizens are presently receiving small arms training from the military. Citizens to be allowed pistols.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

In general, one of the more interesting parts of what has been happening is the intelligence game that has been going on in the background. Russia has been failing hard on its false flags when it comes to being even somewhat credible. Meanwhile, the US has often been calling Russian plans, doctrine and plots out before they happen, which has boosted US credibility while hurting Russian psy-ops.

They started with claims that they had discovered a genocide in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatists and an IED, both rather diminished by the fact that the US said they were going to make those claims several days beforehand and either no evidence or a rather incredible video for the IED. Still, this hardly counts as a ****-up considering what they did next.



The next fiasco was the so-called evacuation videos, in which the speaker's claim were recorded on the 18th, while they ended up forgetting to scrub the metadata, which proves both videos were recorded within an hour of each other on the 16th.



Basically, Russia blew up a car in an abandoned parking lot while claiming that Ukranian spies did it as part of an assassination attempt. They claim they have already caught the spy responsible who then spit out some propaganda on television. Turns out while they not only were careful to ensure there were no injuries or serious property damage, they were too cheap to blow up the actual car in question, instead sticking the plates on some old car nobody would care to lose.

Then, we come to the chlorine tank video, where spectral analysis was used to prove that it was faked as well as we've found the video (M72A5 LAW and APILAS live fire) they stole audio from. In addition, the metadata also shows it was created days before the alleged attack happened.

Hell, there's even more. The Russian seperatists are really, really bad when it comes to faking things and seem to have been utterly ignorant when it comes to metadata hygeine.

Interestingly enough, it seems that the codename for this Russian disniformation campaign is "Mongoose Leap", which was also found out due to the disaster that is their information security (the video was stored in a file of that name). That also probably helps explain why the US seems to know their plans in advance and why Russia is trying to hard to stem the leaks.

In addition, they also seem to have started to regret hyping the kindergarten shelling false flag, as that has somewhat backfired when the evidence is basically clear that Russian-backed rebels actually did it.

However, the counterpoint is that while to any informed observer, they are easily disproven, they could very well work with the domestic Russian audience. NATO seems to be providing a large amount of aid and intelligence support to Ukraine, but should Russia actually invade, will most likely not directly intervene with military forces. Instead, expect support in terms of providing intelligence, sanctions on Russia, etc.

I hope this doesn't turn into a full-blown war, but Putin sure is hell is trying his best to make it one.

Fundamentally, I disagree that this is about Putin not wanting a NATO country on his border. Sure, they say this, but in fact, I believe this to be Russian propaganda.

In general, NATO was slowly dying as countries were doing the bare minimum and questioning if it was really necessary. If Russia had just put effort into being a good neighboor for like 5 years, it would already be effectively dead. If NATO dissolved, that would actually hurt Putin's ability to maintain power, as having an external boogeyman is actually wonderful for him. It allows him to blame much of Russia's problems on NATO and the EU rather than his own leadership. Also, with the imaginary threat (and Putin knows full well that Nato will never decide to launch an offensive war again Russia) people are more willing to back hardliners like Putin versus his moderate opposition.

Russia's actions have breathed life back into NATO and will most likely lead to more countries bordering Russia to joining NATO. History shows full well that Russian promises are meaningless, but they don't dare invade a full NATO member state.

For Russia, Ukraine being a full NATO member would be bad, but manageable for Putin. However, Ukraine becoming a successful democracy? That could very well be the end of Putin as Ukraine was (despite extensive Russian meddling) rapidly on track to beat Russia in terms of per capita income in like 2-3 years pre-invasion. Russia is currently having a large number of domestic issues and by Russian standards, Putin's popularity is relatively low.

There's also Putin's nostalgic longings for the Soviet Union. Altogether, a lot of complicated factors that would take too long to explain here.

I do think preventing Ukraine from eventually joining NATO is an important goal for Putin, but I agree that Putin is also motivated to prevent a large, successful democracy right on the border. I don’t know which is the bigger motivation, but I’m sure they are both important.

Preventing Ukraine from joining NATO is about a national security concern for Russia. Preventing Ukraine from succeeding as a democracy is about Putin’s own legitimacy and the long-term viability of the authoritarian system that keeps him in power.