Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

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Matt_The_RocketMan said:
So whats going to happen to the stray missile that just recently killed two Polish Civilians ? Again Poland is a NATO member… so i mean does this count as an act of war or was it more or less because Russian missiles kinda went off course and accidentally hit a target… I guess the world will find out when the smoke clears…
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Lots of hand-wringing, but I would be shocked if NATO retaliates for that. If we went to war over things happening by accident, the Earth would be a nuclear wasteland by now.
 
Antares JS said:
Lots of hand-wringing, but I would be shocked if NATO retaliates for that. If we went to war over things happening by accident, the Earth would be a nuclear wasteland by now.
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I would be surprised if Poland does not strike back.
 
Antares JS said:
Lots of hand-wringing, but I would be shocked if NATO retaliates for that. If we went to war over things happening by accident, the Earth would be a nuclear wasteland by now.
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It probably also depends on how often the accidents happen. If they start to look like "on-purposes" then there's a better chance that Poland declares an Article 5 attack. "Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is enemy action."
 
Matt_The_RocketMan said:
So whats going to happen to the stray missile that just recently killed two Polish Civilians ? Again Poland is a NATO member… so i mean does this count as an act of war or was it more or less because Russian missiles kinda went off course and accidentally hit a target… I guess the world will find out when the smoke clears…
Click to expand...
I don't think even Poland alone would want to escalate over this. Investigation first, and at worst some kind of diplomatic (edit: or economic) reaction. That's my best guess but hey I'm just sitting here with a keyboard.
 
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Matt_The_RocketMan said:
So whats going to happen to the stray missile that just recently killed two Polish Civilians ? Again Poland is a NATO member… so i mean does this count as an act of war or was it more or less because Russian missiles kinda went off course and accidentally hit a target… I guess the world will find out when the smoke clears…
Click to expand...
It will count as whatever Poland wants it to count.
There are no automatic triggers for declaration of war, just like there are no automatic triggers for Article 5.
Both are a political decision.

Poland may choose to do something, and not call it a war.
Or not.

a
 
afadeev said:
It will count as whatever Poland wants it to count.
There are no automatic triggers for declaration of war, just like there are no automatic triggers for Article 5.
Both are a political decision.

Poland may choose to do something, and not call it a war.
Or not.

a
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How Russia communicates about it will have influence on Poland also. If Russia denies it or acts defiant, Poland will react one way. If Russia apologizes for it, Poland would probably react differently.
 
Steve Shannon said:
How Russia communicates about it will have influence on Poland also. If Russia denies it or acts defiant, Poland will react one way. If Russia apologizes for it, Poland would probably react differently.
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Russia seems to be taking the bold "What missiles? We didn't fire any missiles near the border!" stance. NATO as a whole seems to be waiting for Poland to come to a conclusion. The Baltics are more strident, but that's not a big surprise since they'd want NATO to come support them as well. Polish national security officials are meeting now.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/europe/poland-missile-rocket-nato-przewodow-ukraine-intl/index.html
 
Regarding the issue at hand… Poland seems to be taking their time deciding as to what they want to do…. again from what the missiles were hitting and accidentally hit was probably a malfunction on Russia’s part… again “their military grade” weapons arent all that impressive…low grade… so i wouldnt be surprised if Poland shrugged and looked the other way… i dunno
 
I would be surprised if Poland shrugs their shoulders. That kind of response emboldens Putin. He's like a typical bully--give a strong response and he'll often back down. Turkey shot down a Russian fighter that had strayed from Syria to Turkish airspace for less than a minute, and Russian fighters stayed well clear of the border after that.

If the missiles prove to be Russian (still not proven), then I would expect that the response will be somewhere between giving Ukraine a wider suite of weapons to setting up an air defense umbrella over western Ukraine. But with Russia not apologizing for hitting Poland, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Poland could declare that they were attacked, invoke Article 5, and request NATO assistance in destroying any cruise missile launchers in Ukraine's pre-2014 borders. If it's the latter, we'll probably hear soon.
 
One of the moderators on an autism forum named Wrong Planet lives in Poland.
And I think not overly far from the border.
I'm going with what she says here,
and going no further.
https://wrongplanet.net/forums/viewtopic.php?f=21&p=9175376#p9175376
Well, some day it was expected to happen.
Probably two Russian missiles diverted from their track enough to cross the border to Poland. There are other possibilities being discussed but this one seems most likely.
If this is true, the Ukrainian war has just spilled to NATO territory.
Polish government is holding an emergency meeting. They refuse to officially confirm any information yet. The Pentagon alike.
Some official statements and actions will be likely decided tonight.
Click to expand...
 
Steve Shannon said:
How Russia communicates about it will have influence on Poland also. If Russia denies it or acts defiant, Poland will react one way. If Russia apologizes for it, Poland would probably react differently.
Click to expand...

I don't see Russia taking responsibility for any of this. It's just not their style.
Recall Russians claim that they didn't start the war with Ukraine (US did it, somehow), and it's not a war anyway, as per Russia. Just organized aggressive cultural exchange program.

boatgeek said:
Russia seems to be taking the bold "What missiles? We didn't fire any missiles near the border!" stance.
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Indeed.
One missile malfunctioning and hitting a wrong target in a wrong country is a mistake.
Two - are a trend, and a message.

georgegassaway said:
Yeah, Poland could just call it a "Special Military Operation".

See also - Goose/Gander
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Or bomb the @#$% out something in Russia (e.g.: Black Sea Fleet), and say nothing / hint that Antarctic penguins / Martians did it.

1668555565290.png
 
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Poland invoked section 4, NATO security council meeting first thing in the morning. I'm sure no matter what, Ukraine and Poland get the upgraded air defense stuff they've been asking us for.
 
cls said:
Poland invoked section 4, NATO security council meeting first thing in the morning. I'm sure no matter what, Ukraine and Poland get the upgraded air defense stuff they've been asking us for.
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Apparently, the Russian ambassador to Poland has been summoned to the Polish foreign ministry. That discussion will likely be informative for the Article 4 meeting. Calling an Article 4 meeting tomorrow also doesn't rule out (or in) an Article 5 declaration at that meeting.
 
WoShuGui said:
Ukraine Weapons Tracker
This source analyzed photographs of fragments from whatever crashed in the village of Przewodów, Poland and concluded they were from a Ukrainian S-300 AD SAM.
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Maybe. Maybe not.
Reading further down in the comments:
Those photos of the fragments were posted on an Israeli Twitter account and picked up by others. Are they from the missile that strayed into Poland? The analysts are assuming so. Perhaps not. How is it that an Israeli Twitter user obtains pictures of missile fragments before anyone else?
I'll wait for the results of the official Polish investigation.
EDIT: The S300 missile is used by both Russia and Ukraine and several former Soviet bloc countries.
 
S300 is anti-air SAM. It wouldn't be used in ground to ground or cruise missile roles. If they were S300 based then what were they shooting at?
 
Duda better invoke Article 4.

Enough is enough. Accident or not, attacking one of our closest and strongest allies, a people who have been run over by Russia for centuries and lost generations to Russia. This cannot go with just a slap on the hand. This would be a slap in the face to the people of Poland.
 
Steve Shannon said:
How Russia communicates about it will have influence on Poland also. If Russia denies it or acts defiant, Poland will react one way. If Russia apologizes for it, Poland would probably react differently.
Click to expand...

I think this is key. This is not a coincidence. If it is two missiles, it was deliberate.
 
I saw a report on CNN (youtube) that the missile that landed in Poland was the result of an attempted shoot-down of a Russian missile that then went off course*. I don't believe it, but my thoughts count for little. If it turns out that this *was* a missile launched by the Russians, (again, my opinion) the best response might be the authorization of the transfer of a batch of ATACMS to Ukraine. They would have the range to reach the launch sites of a lot of the (non-air launched) missiles, and some air bases fielding bombers.

*The airspace over Ukraine has to be one of the most heavily monitored regions of the world right now, especially by the US and allies. There are many air, sattelite, and ground based assets involved. We either know (or will shortly know) exactly what happened, and will likely have proof. I doubt the proof will ever be made public as this will reveal our capabilities.
 
kuririn said:
Maybe. Maybe not.
Reading further down in the comments:
Those photos of the fragments were posted on an Israeli Twitter account and picked up by others. Are they from the missile that strayed into Poland? The analysts are assuming so. Perhaps not. How is it that an Israeli Twitter user obtains pictures of missile fragments before anyone else?
I'll wait for the results of the official Polish investigation.
EDIT: The S300 missile is used by both Russia and Ukraine and several former Soviet bloc countries.
Click to expand...
Yes TBD for sure. The initial reports stated there were two rockets. The S-300 has a 150 km range. With all the possibilities I hope we get this right.
 
Sooner Boomer said:
I saw a report on CNN (youtube) that the missile that landed in Poland was the result of an attempted shoot-down of a Russian missile that then went off course*. I don't believe it, but my thoughts count for little. If it turns out that this *was* a missile launched by the Russians, (again, my opinion) the best response might be the authorization of the transfer of a batch of ATACMS to Ukraine. They would have the range to reach the launch sites of a lot of the (non-air launched) missiles, and some air bases fielding bombers.

*The airspace over Ukraine has to be one of the most heavily monitored regions of the world right now, especially by the US and allies. There are many air, sattelite, and ground based assets involved. We either know (or will shortly know) exactly what happened, and will likely have proof. I doubt the proof will ever be made public as this will reveal our capabilities.
Click to expand...

I would give them the ATACMS, retired A-10s, and MIGs.
 

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