Those are actually semi-submersibles, they dont actually go under water. They just run really low in the water so they are harder to see.But those sorts of subs are capable of going what - maybe 10m below the surface?
Those are actually semi-submersibles, they dont actually go under water. They just run really low in the water so they are harder to see.But those sorts of subs are capable of going what - maybe 10m below the surface?
But those sorts of subs are capable of going what - maybe 10m below the surface?
Oil platform ROVs are good for hundreds to thousands of meters. Hemmacher lists various subs down to 2,000 ft.Those are actually semi-submersibles, they dont actually go under water. They just run really low in the water so they are harder to see.
I feel like I'm repeating myself, so I'll stop. All I'm saying is any reasonably competent company or criminal enterprise could rig up a battery-powered robosploder for $X million. Doesn't have to be nation-states anymore.But oil rig type subs dont have much range. They need some serious surface support and that would be noticed
But oil rig type subs dont have much range. They need some serious surface support and that would be noticed
nope.Methane breaks down into CO2 and water in a short time (relative to climate time). Another thing the media doesn't tell you. Its contribution to climate change is negligible compared to the millions tons of CO2 emitted every day by current combustion. The shut off of Russian natural gas is a net reduction greenhouse gas emissions even with the leak. (Until the Germans restart their coal plants).
I haven't watched that video yet, but Putin using subs to increase the price of gas for Gazprom seems to make sense. On the other hand, we have one of Europe's largest O&G providers who doesn't seem to be worried about next winter.One thing that I found interesting in the video is the thought that Gazprom may actually benefit from having the pipelines disabled. If that’s so, Gazprom would have both means and motive.
Yes. I can't add much. Nailed it. Minimizing energy use has many advantages, most of them financial. People need to realize there's a limit to global GDP.... methane emissions are a problem ... there's so much concern about trapped methane releases when Siberia melts and the oceans warm enough to melt the methane hydrates at the bottom? Runaway warming, yeah that's a big problem.
NATO released a joint statement on Thursday that said any attack on members' critical infrastructure would result in a "united and determined response".Hey, if a state actor attacked the energy infrastructure of NATO countries, is that an attack on NATO?
With the destruction of Nordstream pipelines make the single source (now) for European nat gas the Ukrainian pipeline? That would connect some of the dots wouldn't it?
Don't forget to add a proficient private scuba diving team to the mix.First question: who could have blown the pipelines?
Any navy with a deep sea submarine fleet (US, UK, France, Russia), plus
Any regional navy with any submarine fleet (Norway, Sweden, Finland, Poland, Germany)
Every other Baltic nation (Denmark, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania)
Any of a dozen of so major subsea construction companies
Any nation with a deep sea navy
Kewl for Putin. I trust he gets approval ratings boost he so desperately needs?Putin held a signing ceremony today with the Russian-appointed “leaders” of Russian occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia today, formally annexing the four provinces into the Russian Federation.
Nothing like it in Europe? The Ferris wheel in Vienna has been there for over 100 years and survived two world wars. I have a feeling that it was in the Russian sector after WW2 so someone in Russia must have noticed it! The guy's smoking dope.Kewl for Putin. I trust he gets approval ratings boost he so desperately needs?
This could only get better if he also opened another defective Ferris wheel as well:
Perfectly apropos!
- As Russia was forced to retreat in Ukraine, Putin spoke at the opening of a Ferris wheel, boasting: "There is nothing like that in Europe."
- One day later, the wheel broke, trapping visitors in the air, and people had to be refunded.
https://www.businessinsider.com/amid-ukraine-offensive-putin-opened-ferris-wheel-but-it-broke-2022-9
Commentators on CNN were commenting (cuz that’s what they do) that the faces in the audience for Putin’s announcement were blank. Videos of the event seemed to support that. Hopefully that means more and more people in Russia are turning against Putin, but unfortunately nobody yet has enough support to displace him.Kewl for Putin. I trust he gets approval ratings boost he so desperately needs?
This could only get better if he also opened another defective Ferris wheel as well:
Perfectly apropos!
- As Russia was forced to retreat in Ukraine, Putin spoke at the opening of a Ferris wheel, boasting: "There is nothing like that in Europe."
- One day later, the wheel broke, trapping visitors in the air, and people had to be refunded.
https://www.businessinsider.com/amid-ukraine-offensive-putin-opened-ferris-wheel-but-it-broke-2022-9
Commentators on CNN were commenting (cuz that’s what they do) that the faces in the audience for Putin’s announcement were blank. Videos of the event seemed to support that. Hopefully that means more and more people in Russia are turn8ng against Putin, but unfortunately nobody yet has enough support to displace him.
Or, he might be smiling, the funky Russian way, like these guys do in the group photos:
View attachment 516315
I suspect it means that they will work out a response which is proportionate to any hostile action. Keeping their options open is a good policy as it keeps Putin guessing.NATO released a joint statement on Thursday that said any attack on members' critical infrastructure would result in a "united and determined response".
Whatever that means.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/topics/ukraine-war
Exactly. Back in the late 90's early 2000's I was a technical dive instructor down in Mexico. We routinely dove to the 200 to 300 foot depths. Handling 200 lbs of anything down there would require a large group of extremely experienced tech divers. And easy is not a term I would use to describe it. You would need some serious surface support. And the Baltic aint the Caribbean. High levels of shipping traffic, cold water and low visibility.I think there's a few things worth clarifying. First of all, yes, scuba divers and relatively inexpensive commercial ROVs could have gotten to the pipeline. I'd be interested to learn how many technical scuba divers could handle 200 lbs of [object] underwater and guide it to a specific destination in >50m of water. The list of people who could have attached 200 lbs of TNT to the pipeline and then blown it up is smaller than that. And any of them would have been easily identified by commercial or military intelligence. Yes, it's theoretically possible that an ROV hobbyist who has a good buddy in the mining industry could have done this. But spent the effort and danger to do it? Seems extremely unlikely.
OK, on to minisubs. The cocaine subs have a relatively easy job for a submarine, and nothing is easy on submarines. They just need to go from point A to point B underwater, surface, and then offload some cargo. If they have a GPS whip above water, they know exactly where they are. A sub blowing up the pipeline has to navigate underwater, find the pipeline, drop off explosives (either held outside the hull or getting them through the hull), and get out of there before they blow. And do that four times. That is two or three orders of magnitude more difficult than a cocaine sub trip. Not to mention that you have to get the sub into the water in Denmark, Sweden, or Germany without anyone raising an alarm or asking inconvenient questions. I'd posit that's a lot harder than in Mexico.
High end hobbyist to low end commercial ROVs or high end scuba divers could also have done this. However, they'd need to be attended by a fairly good sized boat. Also, as mentioned above, the limiting factor is likely to be the explosives part of the equation. More importantly, either the ROV option or the scuba option need to be supported by a boat or ship. While it could theoretically have been a recreational boat, I think that's a pretty tall order in terms of getting the people/equipment and explosives into the water and recovering them. Also the attacks happened squarely in the middle of the Baltic nearl shippping lanes. There are highly monitored waters. Anything of significant size will have an AIS (automatic identification system) unit on board, continuously broadcasting the boats name, unique ID number, location, speed, bearing, etc. You can pick up this info on sites like marinetraffic.com, and see several-day-long tracks of vessel positions. It is relatively trivial to sort AIS data to look for boats that spent time around all four sabotage points. If there's any boats that did in the last couple of weeks, their owners have likely already gotten a knock on the door.
The other upside of the AIS data is that it thins down the herd of interesting boats. There's lots of radar out there, and any decent size radar target that doesn't have an AIS signal is automatically of interest because it's likely a naval ship or up to no good. The relevant coast guards likely have a list of radar targets that spent time in the area of the sabotage. They certainly know if any Russian navy ships did.
Again, I go back to the idea that this is not an easy task, and that there are relatively few people who could have done it. There are far, far fewer people or organizations who could have done it and avoided detection.
There's lots of radar out there, and any decent size radar target that doesn't have an AIS signal is automatically of interest because it's likely a naval ship or up to no good.
What we could all be headed for...
Kewl for Putin. I trust he gets approval ratings boost he so desperately needs?
It was turned off. It hadn’t begun to flow yet. There was some residual “test gas” in the system, which I understand contains some methane.I have a question. I hope it's not a stupid one. Why not just turn the gas off at the source?
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