Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

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I think my own disappointment recently has to do with my own expectations or hopes that Ukraine might be already successfully counterattacking by now. I have to remind myself that they have done EXTREMELY well.

The war needs a game changer to shift the momentum. Hopefully the new rocket systems will be it.
Don't forget that Ukraine is successfully counterattacking, just not in Luhansk. They've gained all of the ground around Kyiv, plus advancing roughly to the Russian border outside Kharkiv and moving towards Kherson. They are probably making fairly big moves near Kherson since the Ukrainian army has asked for a news blackout in that region to avoid telegraphing their moves to the Russians.
 
[snip]

Right now over half the world supports Russia, countries like China, India, Brazil, South Africa, etc.

[/snip]

At first, I thought this statement was crazy, then I thought about the fact that China and India are the two largest populations on Earth, so I went to worldometers.info and did some searching. It is very interesting to look at the data.

I imagine most countries are internally divided a bit, but in China (for instance) the political support for Russia is what counts, as the people have little to no say. I imagine it is similar in India and many other countries.

So, while I initially thought the statement was way off-base, I think it might be true. . .

Sandy.
 
Don't forget that Ukraine is successfully counterattacking, just not in Luhansk. They've gained all of the ground around Kyiv, plus advancing roughly to the Russian border outside Kharkiv and moving towards Kherson. They are probably making fairly big moves near Kherson since the Ukrainian army has asked for a news blackout in that region to avoid telegraphing their moves to the Russians.

What's more, it appears as through Vlad is throwing everything but the nuclear kitchen sink at the eastern zones right now - probably because the clock is ticking for Russia's energy leverage and Ukraine's ordnance shortfall. Also, Russia has now officially defaulted on their foreign interest obligations. Some might debate whether their economy has officially reached the threshold of "basket case" as of now, but the status quo isn't an option for a protracted intervention.

TP
 
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I imagine most countries are internally divided a bit, but in China (for instance) the political support for Russia is what counts, as the people have little to no say. I imagine it is similar in India and many other countries.
I think it's important to differentiate between political support and general support within these countries - especially China. If you're under the impression there's a natural unquestioned endorsement of Xi's policies and alliances, then you're likely mistaken. Politics aren't discussed within China and that's not due to conventional polite social courtesy.

India: everyone who has an education in India has a political opinion (generally a strong one) that's not strongly influenced by authoritarian propaganda. Pragmatism certainly can't be overstated and just because they see the opportunity of cheap energy to trump morale stances, that shouldn't be seen as a glowing endorsement of Vlad's adventures.

TP
 
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I think it's important to differentiate between political support and general support within these countries - especially China. If you're under the impression there's a natural unquestioned endorsement of Xi's policies and alliances, then you're likely mistaken. Politics aren't discussed within China and that's not due to conventional polite social courtesy.

India: everyone who has an education in India has a political opinion (generally a strong one) that's not strongly influenced by authoritarian propaganda. Pragmatism certainly can't be overstated and just because they see the opportunity of cheap energy to trump morale stances, that shouldn't be seen as a glowing endorsement of Vlad's adventures.

TP

Agree on both counts.

Sandy.
 
It’s been somewhat depressing news lately with Russia loses that advantage.
...
Hopefully the Russians are about exhausted and the new rocket systems will start taking a toll, because something needs to shift.
It's worth remembering that they've been losing a couple of generals (and lots of colonels) every week to snipers and Putin's recalls. Even in a big military, generals are in very finite supply. And, since the Russian military only functions with officers in command, once they start running out, the army loses function altogether/collapses.
 
This is really something to think about.

Right now over half the world supports Russia, countries like China, India, Brazil, South Africa, etc. A collapse of the work being done to bring democracy to Ukraine since 1991, and more so since 2014, would strongly signal the end of anything like a unipolar rules-based world order.

That's a nicely summarized pitch of latest round of Russian propaganda. Which shamelessly flips reality on its head: black is white, no democracy in Ukraine, Nazis everywhere, Kremlin was “forced” to invade Ukraine, blah, blah, blah.
Here is the full version, from uncle Vlad himself:
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/putin-declares-end-‘unipolar-world’-203105
We would be hip deep in a multipolar world.

Putin certainly wishes for that to become reality.
Unipolar - bitching by the Russia and China that the US-rules-based approach to the world relations is constraining their empirical ambitions.
Multi-polar - get the US out of the way, let Russia and China revert the world to 19th century of regional imperialism.

A couple of folks on this forum, and in our media, are cheering for Russia and China.

The world's trust and reliance on the US and the US dollar may be questioned, even ended. It may be hard to adjust to this.

If it was true, that is.
You seam to be forgetting that Putin's dream world, where he is fighting the good fight against the Nazis who are surrounding and attacking mother Russia, is a LOOOOooooong way away from reality.

a
 
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It's worth remembering that they've been losing a couple of generals (and lots of colonels) every week to snipers and Putin's recalls. Even in a big military, generals are in very finite supply. And, since the Russian military only functions with officers in command, once they start running out, the army loses function altogether/collapses.

Not to worry, they've got this guy out of retirement. Major General Pavel.
He is clearly worth at least 3 generals. At least, by bulk.
Might need a little extra help getting transported to the front line:
1656608249542.png
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/obese-retired-russian-general-67-27328697
 

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Sadly, the Snake Island shooting gallery may have closed for the season.
Russians have given up and withdrawn as a "gesture of goodwill":

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61992491
The thing is, I did the math and post a while back, that some of Ukraine's anti-ship missiles would be in range of more Russian ships (in port) if based/launched on Snake Island.
 
In a gesture of good will to the people who keep blowing us off this rock, we are going to leave now. Good-bye good friends, and thanks for all the bombs!
 
A new British recruitement ad. Not related to "Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War", but I didn't want to start a new thread just for this.

 
A018C62C-4057-4EE6-B9AF-4405357C96FF.jpeg

Yo General’s so fat, an entire armored battalion tried to drive around him and ran out of gas.

Yo General’s so fat, he’s his own separatist republic.

Yo General’s so fat, he tried to board a ship to the battle, and it sank to the bottom of the Black Sea.

Yo General’s so fat, just keeping him fed is a logistical impossibility.

Yo General’s so fat, he lost the Battle of the Bulge.

Yo General’s so fat, his tank has stretch marks.

Yo General’s so fat, if he was in Star Wars, his character would be Admiral Snackbar.

Yo General’s so fat, the only reason he was sent to the war is because they said they needed more “rounds”.

Yo General’s so fat, when he wears camo, he looks like the forest moon of Endor.
 
Not to worry, they've got this guy out of retirement. Major General Pavel.
He is clearly worth at least 3 generals. At least, by bulk.
Does make you wonder what the process is for recruiting these retired generals and high ranking officers. Like you can't imagine a big fella like that would be champing at the bit to get back involved in a military debacle operation. Wouldn't surprise me if it was literally a gun to the head.

TP
 
Does make you wonder what the process is for recruiting these retired generals and high ranking officers. Like you can't imagine a big fella like that would be champing at the bit to get back involved in a military debacle operation. Wouldn't surprise me if it was literally a gun to the head.

TP

They offer a sweetener to make it a carrot-and-stick approach. He could choose between a bullet in the brain or unlimited all-you-can eat sausages.

99611C99-35CE-4CBF-8EC8-2E07E3CAA83F.jpeg
 
Maybe they’re picking generals that won’t be a drag on depleted “pension funds”.
 
They offer a sweetener to make it a carrot-and-stick approach. He could choose between a bullet in the brain or unlimited all-you-can eat sausages.

View attachment 525076
Hehe. I suppose he has one key advantage - if the Ukrainians cut off the supply lines, he'd last a while albeit not his jovial self.

TP
 
I think that he is missing a point. Ukraine's largest confirmed oil reserves are under the Donbas. Giving the Donbas up to Russia is a big deal. And I don't see Russia stopping the war until they have Odessa.
Odesa is a melting pot. People from all over the world call Odesa home. The indigenous locals speak Russian.
They (as Mrs points out) really don’t care who in in charge and just wish to live their lives.
Odesa has largely been spared the relentless bombing and rockets. The recent rockets and bombs are changing the way the folks in Odesa feel. They are quickly becoming very anti Russian.
I don’t think the orcs will get into Odesa any time soon.
 
Odesa is a melting pot. People from all over the world call Odesa home. The indigenous locals speak Russian.
They (as Mrs points out) really don’t care who in in charge and just wish to live their lives.
Odesa has largely been spared the relentless bombing and rockets. The recent rockets and bombs are changing the way the folks in Odesa feel. They are quickly becoming very anti Russian.
I don’t think the orcs will get into Odesa any time soon.
I sure hope so. Russians controlling Odessa would be a very bad thing.
 
I think that he is missing a point. Ukraine's largest confirmed oil reserves are under the Donbas. Giving the Donbas up to Russia is a big deal. And I don't see Russia stopping the war until they have Odessa.
Energy is power and control over those that need it.
Slava Ukraini
 
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