Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

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Our "support" for the UKR is limited, limited to what Russia allows us to provide. Putin will achieve his goals at a high cost that he doesn't care about.
He has threatened all kinds of retaliation and squawked and squirmed about a bunch of things the US has said and done. He doesn’t have the means to put up a real fight short of nukes, and intelligence analysts probably know how to tell when he’s being serious. I wouldn’t worry about him, at least not with the war in its current state.
 
Inch by bloody inch, the strong UKR salient in Donbas is being slowly pinched off. The major roads and waterways are defining the battle. Ammunition, reinforcements and new weapons are badly needed.
 
Ukraine admits they are losing 100 to 200 soldiers a day. What is the real number?
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The US and its allies lost an average of 71 soldiers per day in Vietnam over a span of ten years. The most in a single day was 281 US lives in one day. In WW2 the average was 220 US soldiers per day. 100 to 200 is not a surprising figure.

Possibly even more frightening is that China may be laying the groundwork for an attack on Taiwan. Would the world support *two* besieged democracies. Could they? By most accounts, an attack on Taiwan would screw up the world economy far worse than Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...t-as-china-acts-to-extend-military-operations
 
I think Putin doesn't care how long the Ukraine war smolders. He sees this as as restoring a breakaway province that must be brought back. The cost in physical destruction to Russia is minuscule. There seems to be many unwritten rules here. In general Russia can destroy Ukrainian property indiscriminately in eastern Ukraine, but technically Ukraine cannot attack Russia proper (yes, I know there are a few exceptions). In general Russia is not allowed to do large damage to western Ukraine. So, considering that the physical cost to Russia is comparatively low, the Russians can let this got on forever, kinda like what they did with Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine where Russian was widely spoken. Zelensky sees this war as an invasion that has been fought to a slow standstill. Without pressure from the outside he will continue.
 
I think Putin doesn't care how long the Ukraine war smolders. He sees this as as restoring a breakaway province that must be brought back. The cost in physical destruction to Russia is minuscule. There seems to be many unwritten rules here. In general Russia can destroy Ukrainian property indiscriminately in eastern Ukraine, but technically Ukraine cannot attack Russia proper (yes, I know there are a few exceptions). In general Russia is not allowed to do large damage to western Ukraine. So, considering that the physical cost to Russia is comparatively low, the Russians can let this got on forever, kinda like what they did with Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine where Russian was widely spoken. Zelensky sees this war as an invasion that has been fought to a slow standstill. Without pressure from the outside he will continue.
That pressure is likely being applied already through the sanctions that are taking effect. Already it’s more and more difficult for them to replace their stuff while Ukraine has gotten infusions from the West and from abandoned Russian equipment.

It’s just difficult to tell because Russia is so opaque about what’s going on behind their lines, all the stuff we get is spotty intelligence. We don’t have a clear picture of the reality the Russian people and government are facing and we likely won’t for years.
 
The US is sending another $1 billion in military aid to Ukraine. This tranch includes 18 more howitzers, 36,000 rounds of howitzer ammo, HIMARS ammo, two harpoon missiles systems, tactical vehicles, and a bunch of other goodies, plus $225 million in humanitarian aid.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/15/politics/biden-admin-ukraine-military-aid/index.html
I read elsewhere that the US is trying to source 152mm artillery rounds for Ukraine’s Soviet era artillery. They have plenty of rounds for the US supplied 155mm howitzers, and US suppliers are working triple shifts to crank out more, but the Ukrainians are running very low on 152mm. The US is trying to get NATO allies like Bulgaria who still use 152mm to start manufacturing more.

And I also read that there are conflicting views on the pace of heavy weapons flowing into Ukraine. Ukraine claims it’s not coming fast enough, but it’s also seeming to have trouble absorbing an integrating what is sent. One example is that they are clamoring for more MLRS and HIMARS systems, but the first crew is only completing training this week, so none of the systems supplied yet are in the field. No doubt they will need more of these systems soon, but they aren’t quite ready yet to use what has already been delivered or promised.
 
The US is sending another $1 billion in military aid to Ukraine. This tranch includes 18 more howitzers, 36,000 rounds of howitzer ammo, HIMARS ammo, two harpoon missiles systems, tactical vehicles, and a bunch of other goodies, plus $225 million in humanitarian aid.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/15/politics/biden-admin-ukraine-military-aid/index.html
I read elsewhere that the US is trying to source 152mm artillery rounds for Ukraine’s Soviet era artillery. They have plenty of rounds for the US supplied 155mm howitzers, and US suppliers are working triple shifts to crank out more, but the Ukrainians are running very low on 152mm. The US is trying to get NATO allies like Bulgaria who still use 152mm to start manufacturing more.

And I also read that there are conflicting views on the pace of heavy weapons flowing into Ukraine. Ukraine claims it’s not coming fast enough, but it’s also seeming to have trouble absorbing an integrating what is sent. One example is that they are clamoring for more MLRS and HIMARS systems, but the first crew is only completing training this week, so none of the systems supplied yet are in the field. No doubt they will need more of these systems soon, but they aren’t quite ready yet to use what has already been delivered or promised.
They’re probably trying to stockpile for a major operation. Whether it’s offensive or defensive is difficult to say, but I think it’s clear that they know something that we, the public, don’t.
 
They’re probably trying to stockpile for a major operation. Whether it’s offensive or defensive is difficult to say, but I think it’s clear that they know something that we, the public, don’t.
Hopefully. There seem to be rumors of preparations for a major Ukrainian counterattack, but who really knows? Honestly, ongoing and upcoming military operations are one of the few things I'm okay with governments being secretive about.
 
A seized $300M Superyacht belonging to Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov pulled into Honolulu Harbor.



Maybe they can rent it out for dinner cruises. 😁

Wild. I was standing on the dock immediately behind the camera yesterday. Apparently I left Honolulu a day too early!
 
Politico is reporting that the US is considering supplying Ukraine with four additional HIMARS systems, doubling the number sent previously if the transfer goes forward. The Ukrainians are also requesting that they be supplied with the longer-range rockets that the system can use.

I’m inclined to think that this means Ukraine would like to improve its capability to conduct precision strikes on strategic targets in Russia itself, without putting its aircrew at risk. Because the system is truck-mounted, the crew could use the shoot-and-scoot tactics that have been used by tank and artillery crews for decades.
 
Politico is reporting that the US is considering supplying Ukraine with four additional HIMARS systems, doubling the number sent previously if the transfer goes forward. The Ukrainians are also requesting that they be supplied with the longer-range rockets that the system can use.

I’m inclined to think that this means Ukraine would like to improve its capability to conduct precision strikes on strategic targets in Russia itself, without putting its aircrew at risk. Because the system is truck-mounted, the crew could use the shoot-and-scoot tactics that have been used by tank and artillery crews for decades.

I think they definitely will need more HIMARS systems. Four in the first tranche is not enough. Four more is better. But they will need even more than that. I guess the first 60 Ukrainian soldiers have been trained on the system, so they will be able to get the first four systems into the fight soon. And more crews are scheduled to be trained. This might be something they build up as the crews become available.
 
I think they definitely will need more HIMARS systems. Four in the first tranche is not enough. Four more is better. But they will need even more than that. I guess the first 60 Ukrainian soldiers have been trained on the system, so they will be able to get the first four systems into the fight soon. And more crews are scheduled to be trained. This might be something they build up as the crews become available.
Might the Ukrainians work on building their own in-house training capability on it? Obviously they’re going to need more rounds, they’re going to need to pull some of their guys from the front to train and serve as instructors, and they’re going to need to keep some equipment on the training ground instead of at the front, but that sounds a lot better in the long-term than relying on Western expertise as well as materiel.
 
Another issue beyond training is keeping the launchers fed. Each pod weighs 2.5 tons and reload time is only 5 minutes. Even making conservative assumptions about total number of shots, each unit is going to go through 100+ tons of ammo per day. It looks like maybe 4-6 pods will fit in a 40-foot container or flat rack, so the 4 launchers already committed will use a literal trainload of ammunition every 2-3 days. That’s an enormous logistical tail.

Also, a centrally located unit can cover nearly the entire front line, so having more spread down the line doesn’t necessarily help all that much.
 
So, with China and India buying Russian oil, thus financing Russia's side of the war, then it truly becomes a war of attrition.
Meaning, which side runs out of people first.
 
The other thing to remember is that multiple countries are actively supporting Ukraine and Ukraine troops are much more highly motivated than the Russian conscripts. It’s not going to be easy, but they aren’t out of the fight.
 
So, with China and India buying Russian oil, thus financing Russia's side of the war, then it truly becomes a war of attrition.
Meaning, which side runs out of people first.
But China and India are also buying at "heavy discounts." I don't know if that's less than pre-war prices, or just less than current prices.
 
So, with China and India buying Russian oil, thus financing Russia's side of the war, then it truly becomes a war of attrition.
Meaning, which side runs out of people first.

I think there is still is a strong economic component. China may be replacing some Russian income lost to sanctions, but that doesn’t mean it’s all free money to go to the war. Russia had expenses before the war that oil profits paid for. They still have those expenses, plus the cost of the war, plus the other hits to their economy from other non-oil sanctions. They may have trouble sustaining the war for long, even with this oil money from China.
 
I think there is still is a strong economic component. China may be replacing some Russian income lost to sanctions, but that doesn’t mean it’s all free money to go to the war. Russia had expenses before the war that oil profits paid for. They still have those expenses, plus the cost of the war, plus the other hits to their economy from other non-oil sanctions. They may have trouble sustaining the war for long, even with this oil money from China.

Technically speaking, Russia does not need foreign income to keep funding and fighting the war.
The soldiers are paid in rubbles, and all the military equipment is made inside Russia. Even with zero FX coming in from hydrocarbon sales, they could keep this up for as long as they have the willing manpower and the equipment to throw into the war (and there are reports that both a running low, but not fast enough).

Where sanctions come into play is in:
  • Choking off supply of Western equipment and technology, which was integral to some of the high-tech military equipment and ordinances.
  • Strategically choking Russian economy overall and their ability to invest into military technology and manufacturing in the future.
  • Tactically restricting access to all foreign made industrial goods and services (constraining industrial growth across the board) and consumer goods (hitting living standards of Russians immediately, across the board).

Sanctions have a role to play, but they will not win the war:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/dont-expect-sanctions-to-win-the-ukraine-war-11650550229


Here is info on Russia imports:
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I saw today that Germany blocked the transfer of Leopard MBT's from Spain to Ukraine. I find that surprising and disturbing. This is not the time to start dragging our collective feet. Personally, I believe this war is a pivotal moment in the history of the human race. This is a global fight between good and evil. Evil can not be allowed to win. If evil wins in Ukraine. Evil will spread around the world. Starting with Taiwan.
Totally agree, I am Italian but my entire important life has been in Scotland so I consider more Scottish than Italian and despite this I feel ashamed by the level of selfishness of Italians who looks only to the cost of living. Here in Scotland we see again cost of living increasing and dramatically. But every pensioner that I had chance to speak to refer to Putin as an Evil that must be stopped at all costs. I am sure that if we do not stop this now, more will come maybe not in the immediate but in the coming years. I totally share the view of the UK Army Secretary General, who said that this is the generation that have to prepare to fight and defeat Russia on the ground and protect Europe once again. This will happen, as WWII, because lack of vision of our politicians (or part of them) who are incapable to motivate common people to fight for something higher than your personal grocery list.
 
Totally agree, I am Italian but my entire important life has been in Scotland so I consider more Scottish than Italian and despite this I feel ashamed by the level of selfishness of Italians who looks only to the cost of living. Here in Scotland we see again cost of living increasing and dramatically. But every pensioner that I had chance to speak to refer to Putin as an Evil that must be stopped at all costs. I am sure that if we do not stop this now, more will come maybe not in the immediate but in the coming years. I totally share the view of the UK Army Secretary General, who said that this is the generation that have to prepare to fight and defeat Russia on the ground and protect Europe once again. This will happen, as WWII, because lack of vision of our politicians (or part of them) who are incapable to motivate common people to fight for something higher than your personal grocery list.
Then again, political leaders throughout the West can’t be bothered with something as simple as grocery lists. There’s a failing in the hierarchy of needs that is no doubt affecting people’s thinking. The problems at home are severe enough (or are perceived to be severe enough) that geopolitical security issues in distant lands are easily pushed aside.

The error lies in thinking that solving the problems are mutually exclusive. In fact, progress on one may make the other easier.
 
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Then again, political leaders throughout the West can’t be bothered with something as simple grocery lists. There’s a failing in the hierarchy of needs that is no doubt affecting people’s thinking. The problems at home are severe enough (or are perceived to be severe enough) that geopolitical security issues in distant lands are easily pushed aside.

The error lies in thinking that solving the problems are mutually exclusive. In fact, progress on one may make the other easier.
I am not saying politician should not be bothered with domestic issues, they are otherwise we would be much more pro active. The problem is that people are not guided in this period of uncertainty, we lack of inspiring figures who would led us as Zelensky is doing with his own people, or other leaders of the past. People see the war in Ukraine, just a problem that should be put away asap. Instead they should know more about what is occurring in Russia, how Putin has created even a Youth Army and promoting the propaganda that Russia is surrounded by Nazis enemy and Europe is the center. I feel so bad, to not being able to do more for that country, I feel the weight of my privilege to be back home and know that my wife and kids are safe. How this is not widespread, why we do not recognise that the freedom we give as granted is not free?
 
I am not saying politician should not be bothered with domestic issues, they are otherwise we would be much more pro active. The problem is that people are not guided in this period of uncertainty, we lack of inspiring figures who would led us as Zelensky is doing with his own people, or other leaders of the past. People see the war in Ukraine, just a problem that should be put away asap. Instead they should know more about what is occurring in Russia, how Putin has created even a Youth Army and promoting the propaganda that Russia is surrounded by Nazis enemy and Europe is the center. I feel so bad, to not being able to do more for that country, I feel the weight of my privilege to be back home and know that my wife and kids are safe. How this is not widespread, why we do not recognise that the freedom we give as granted is not free?
It is very probable that Russia has been conducting campaigns to destabilize democracies by backing candidates that have authoritarian and regressive social views. The damage done to the domestic situation in many countries is severe, sometimes provoking constitutional crises, democratic backsliding on both regional and national scales, and less-than-peaceful transfers of power.

By recruiting or placing unofficial operatives in legislatures and executive positions, the Russians have eroded the international means and resolve to oppose their ambitions.

Thankfully this endeavor hasn’t worked as well as hoped. In many key regions, democracy fought back and the Russians were forced to go forward with the invasion when everyone was still thinking damage control regarding their own lives. It was very much “now or never” on February 24th.
 
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The US Air Froce has been trying to retire the A-10 for years. There has been a huge push-back on that and I agree. The A-10 fills a role that no other plane fills nearly as well. There are 23 A-10s at the reserve base in North East Indiana that are scheduled to be replaced with F-16s. USAF has the F-16s ready to give the reserves but there's still push back. I say give those 23 A-10s to Ukraine. They're ready to be retired already. Replacements are ready and in place. The A-10 is ideal for the fight in Ukraine and due to the nature(stick and rudder, old school) of the A-10, any pilot can fly it with very minimal training. Supply them with the planes, 30mm ammo and spare parts. The cost to the US is so minimal is it's a rounding error on the state budget much less the federal budget. How many similar cases are there throughout the US?

I love the A-10 but say let those warthogs free to wage war like they were designed to do and are the absolute best solution for a tank war in Europe.
 
Stoltenberg says the war could go on for years. All of Europe will be involved even if only through huge energy and economic cost.
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are now on the hit list for Russia to repeal their recognition as independent states. In Germany, the coal mines are being reopened to stave off the coming winter.

 
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