Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

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boatgeek said:
HIMARS rockets are definitely not smokeless. I assume that they're meant to be fired far enough behind the lines that the user isn't as worried about the launch site being identified by the smoke trail.
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In the days of beyond line of sight battle/indirect fire and the advent of fire finder radars, the smoke trail isn't as important. Less is better of course but the launch location is pinpointed as soon as the first round or two is launched.
 
smstachwick said:
It’s also truck-mounted, they can do a shoot-and-scoot. I also wouldn’t be surprised if some are accompanied by AA defenses as well.
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Most likely MANPADS systems but maybe some small truck mounted ADA systems like the US Avenger system mounted on a Hummer.
 
According to this article, it looks like some Ukrainian units have crossed the Dnipro River in Kherson province and are operating on the Russian-occupied east (left) bank.

It‘s not clear exactly what they are doing or if this is some part of the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive. The terrain in the area is probably not great for an offensive. But whatever is going on, it’s an interesting development.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65379229
 
How soon do you think the Ukrainian offensive will start? It feels to me like it could be any day now. I’d be surprised it it’s any more than two weeks out. Maybe next week sometime. I think nearly all the promised vehicles have been delivered. It seems like almost everything is in place.
 
ThirstyBarbarian said:
How soon do you think the Ukrainian offensive will start? It feels to me like it could be any day now. I’d be surprised it it’s any more than two weeks out. Maybe next week sometime. I think nearly all the promised vehicles have been delivered. It seems like almost everything is in place.
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One figure I’ve seen is 98%. I’ll see if I can dig that up if requested.
 
ThirstyBarbarian said:
How soon do you think the Ukrainian offensive will start? It feels to me like it could be any day now. I’d be surprised it it’s any more than two weeks out. Maybe next week sometime. I think nearly all the promised vehicles have been delivered. It seems like almost everything is in place.
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So here's an answer that's not really an answer. I posted here a while back that the Russians have so few optical spy satellites in orbit right now that they only get good pictures of Ukraine every two weeks. I am guessing that Ukraine will mass forces near the front in one position, wait for the satellites to go over, then move them as quickly as possible to another position and attack.

Also, I saw somewhere else that back in February, Ukraine was saying something like "Bakhmut needs to hold until the end of April." Another option would be that Ukraine withdraws from Bakhmut and then strikes the next day either there (while the Russians are celebrating) or elsewhere before Russians can redeploy to defend other areas.
 
Yesterday they launched a drone attack on fuel storage at Sevastopol. If it was as successful as some Ukrainian YouTubers are saying it might have been, Russian ships now have a significant detour to be refueled. (Of course, Russian television said that someone was smoking where they shouldn't have been), With this, and a couple other strikes at Russian support, at least one Ukrainian television reporters said that the Spring offensive had already started and would only ramp up from here.
 
Peartree said:
Yesterday they launched a drone attack on fuel storage at Sevastopol. If it was as successful as some Ukrainian YouTubers are saying it might have been, Russian ships now have a significant detour to be refueled. (Of course, Russian television said that someone was smoking where they shouldn't have been), With this, and a couple other strikes at Russian support, at least one Ukrainian television reporters said that the Spring offensive had already started and would only ramp up from here.
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There’s going to be a sudden outbreak of Russians smoking where they shouldn’t be smoking — inside fuel storage depots, ammunition supply warehouses, airfields, ports, command centers, logistics hubs, and troop garrisons. And a lot of smoking inside tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, ships, helicopters, jets, trucks, rocket launchers, artillery pieces, and radars. Even too much smoking in bunkers, trenches, tree lines, and open fields. Way too much smoking, Russians! Dangerous and bad for your health!
 
ThirstyBarbarian said:
There’s going to be a sudden outbreak of Russians smoking where they shouldn’t be smoking — inside fuel storage depots, ammunition supply warehouses, airfields, ports, command centers, logistics hubs, and troop garrisons. And a lot of smoking inside tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, ships, helicopters, jets, trucks, rocket launchers, artillery pieces, and radars. Even too much smoking in bunkers, trenches, tree lines, and open fields. Way too much smoking, Russians! Dangerous and bad for your health!
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Russia is dangerous. Everyone smokes and can’t stay away from windows.
 
Peartree said:
Yesterday they launched a drone attack on fuel storage at Sevastopol. If it was as successful as some Ukrainian YouTubers are saying it might have been, Russian ships now have a significant detour to be refueled. (Of course, Russian television said that someone was smoking where they shouldn't have been), With this, and a couple other strikes at Russian support, at least one Ukrainian television reporters said that the Spring offensive had already started and would only ramp up from here.
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In the story out in the dead tree today, Russia acknowledged that the attack on the Crimea fuel depot was by Ukrainian drones. So at least that one wasn't a smoking-related incident.
 
boatgeek said:
In the story out in the dead tree today, Russia acknowledged that the attack on the Crimea fuel depot was by Ukrainian drones. So at least that one wasn't a smoking-related incident.
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But are we sure the drone actually destroyed the fuel depot? Or did it just deliver a lot of cigarettes?
 
smstachwick said:
Russia is dangerous. Everyone smokes and can’t stay away from windows.
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If you criticize the war, you fall out a window. If you go to the war, you die of smoking. Or maybe the falling out of windows happens while opening it a bit to sneak a smoke? That’s probably the most dangerous of all — smoking next to an open window.
 
ThirstyBarbarian said:
If you criticize the war, you fall out a window. If you go to the war, you die of smoking. Or maybe the falling out of windows happens while opening it a bit to sneak a smoke? That’s probably the most dangerous of all — smoking next to an open window.
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Yes, I believe that's in the oligarchical safety manual p. 101.

Maybe that's why they like their big yachts - lots of internal rooms with no windows :questions:

TP
 
ThirstyBarbarian said:
There’s going to be a sudden outbreak of Russians smoking where they shouldn’t be smoking — inside fuel storage depots, ammunition supply warehouses, airfields, ports, command centers, logistics hubs, and troop garrisons. And a lot of smoking inside tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, ships, helicopters, jets, trucks, rocket launchers, artillery pieces, and radars. Even too much smoking in bunkers, trenches, tree lines, and open fields. Way too much smoking, Russians! Dangerous and bad for your health!
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Acts of saboutage have been breaking out all over Russia behind the lines at various depots, HQs, storage areas, etc. Presumably by annoyed Russians and people who do not want to be recruited to fight Putin's war.
 
Prigozhin says he’s pulling Wagner out of Bakhmut on May 10 due to lack of ammunition. He says Wagner has lost tens of thousands of troops due to the Russian MoD not providing adequate ammo. He says he’ll transfer the Wagner positions to the Russian military and withdraw his troops to logistical centers to “lick our wounds”.

It could be a ploy to get more resources, or maybe he’s serious. Or maybe it’s a way to avoid blame if Bakhmut can’t be taken or falls back into Ukrainian control. Either way, it reflects in-fighting between Wagner and the Russian military.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65493008
 
ThirstyBarbarian said:
Prigozhin says he’s pulling Wagner out of Bakhmut on May 10 due to lack of ammunition. He says Wagner has lost tens of thousands of troops due to the Russian MoD not providing adequate ammo. He says he’ll transfer the Wagner positions to the Russian military and withdraw his troops to logistical centers to “lick our wounds”.

It could be a ploy to get more resources, or maybe he’s serious. Or maybe it’s a way to avoid blame if Bakhmut can’t be taken or falls back into Ukrainian control. Either way, it reflects in-fighting between Wagner and the Russian military.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65493008
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I wonder if that means we’ll see an end to officers ordering suicide charges at this scale. The army does their own foolish stuff but I feel like Wagner is on another level.
 
jderimig said:
Big if true. How do they know it was launched from a Mig31 in Russian territory? Does Ukraine have that capability to determine?
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If Ukraine doesn't, the US and UK have the E-3 and Rivet Joint aircraft flying around just outside Ukraine's airspace keeping an eye on everything that happens inside.
 
ThirstyBarbarian said:
Wow. That is a big deal, if it can be verified. This war has been a great testing ground for NATO systems vs Russians.
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I have to agree. Reportedly, the Patriot is not able to do that. I have read that the maneuverability of the hypersonic is overstated but Russia and China and the PAC-3 Patriots might be a defense. Either way, the clear indicated that the Russian missile is not the game changer we thought.
 

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