Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

[boatgeek]

I have to agree. Reportedly, the Patriot is not able to do that. I have read that the maneuverability of the hypersonic is overstated but Russia and China and the PAC-3 Patriots might be a defense. Either way, the clear indicated that the Russian missile is not the game changer we thought.

It might also have been a lucky shot by the Patriot.

 

[Steve Shannon]

It might also have been a lucky shot by the Patriot.

No, the narrative is incorrect, comrade. The Russians were able to shoot down an obsolete American Patriot missile using their highly advanced hypersonic missile!

 

[cwbullet]

It might also have been a lucky shot by the Patriot.

I did more research on the Patriot. It is possible, but I think the Russian missile being over stated is a much more likely possibility. They tend to overstate everything and we tend to overestimate their capabilities.

 

[kuririn]

Ahem.
Please see the link in post #6296.
Our military has said that current radar architecture does not support shooting down hypersonic missiles.
Especially those that can alter their trajectories, like the Khinzal (supposedly).

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

What do you suppose this year’s Russian Victory Day Parade is going to look like on May 9? Do they still have any equipment or soldiers to parade? Maybe a few rusty WWII era tanks, some donkey carts, and put a bunch of prisoners in uniform? Maybe a parade of 100,000 moms holding pictures of their sons killed in Ukraine followed by 200,000 amputees who left limbs there?

 

[smstachwick]

What do you suppose this year’s Russian Victory Day Parade is going to look like on May 9? Do they still have any equipment or soldiers to parade? Maybe a few rusty WWII era tanks, some donkey carts, and put a bunch of prisoners in uniform? Maybe a parade of 100,000 moms holding pictures of their sons killed in Ukraine followed by 200,000 amputees who left limbs there?

I don’t know what goes through your mind to come up with something so brutal as that. Good Lord.

How sad for the Russians, though. I genuinely hope Ukraine and the West can find it in themselves to render aid once the war is over. A weak, angry Russia does nobody any favors.

 

[boatgeek]

What do you suppose this year’s Russian Victory Day Parade is going to look like on May 9? Do they still have any equipment or soldiers to parade? Maybe a few rusty WWII era tanks, some donkey carts, and put a bunch of prisoners in uniform? Maybe a parade of 100,000 moms holding pictures of their sons killed in Ukraine followed by 200,000 amputees who left limbs there?

They'll have some T-14 Armata tanks, since (virtually) none of the prototypes are fit for combat anyway. Maybe one of them will break down on the parade route like it did in 2015. Oh, and Pootie will be reviewing the parade on Zoom. Because nothing says strength and power like apparently being afraid to show up to a victory parade.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32628236

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I don’t know what goes through your mind to come up with something so brutal as that. Good Lord.

How sad for the Russians, though. I genuinely hope Ukraine and the West can find it in themselves to render aid once the war is over. A weak, angry Russia does nobody any favors.

Reportedly some Victory Day parades have been canceled this year in various cities, and it may be over concerns about these kinds of things. It might just call too much attention to how badly things are going. Victory Day is mostly about the Russian defeat of the Nazis, but veterans and war dead are honored, and there could be some concern about people wanting to honor their dead and wounded in the current “special military operation”, and that might put the not-a-war in a bad light.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

The UK is getting ready to send some long-range precision missiles to Ukraine. Probably air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles with a range of about 200 miles. That would give Ukraine the ability to hit targets in all Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, including Crimea.

I really wish the US would take the next step and provide ATACMS long-range missiles to use with the HIMARS systems we’ve already provided. These kinds of long-range missiles would be a huge help in the coming Ukrainian offensive. Maybe by the UK going first, we will choose to go next, but it seems like the counteroffensive is likely to have to go forward without long-range missiles.

The Russians are already moving their command centers further away from the front lines in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson to get out of HIMARS range before the counteroffensive starts. Long-range missiles would mean Ukraine could still take them out during their offensive, but it doesn’t seem like they are likely to have that capability when the offensive gets underway. It could start any day.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/08/britain-ukraine-long-range-missile/

 

[smstachwick]

The UK is getting ready to send some long-range precision missiles to Ukraine. Probably air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles with a range of about 200 miles. That would give Ukraine the ability to hit targets in all Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, including Crimea.

I really wish the US would take the next step and provide ATACMS long-range missiles to use with the HIMARS systems we’ve already provided. These kinds of long-range missiles would be a huge help in the coming Ukrainian offensive. Maybe by the UK going first, we will choose to go next, but it seems like the counteroffensive is likely to have to go forward without long-range missiles.

The Russians are already moving their command centers further away from the front lines in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson to get out of HIMARS range before the counteroffensive starts. Long-range missiles would mean Ukraine could still take them out during their offensive, but it doesn’t seem like they are likely to have that capability when the offensive gets underway. It could start any day.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/08/britain-ukraine-long-range-missile/

Moving command centers away from the front may make it more difficult to get up-to-date information on battlefield conditions. Withholding missiles for now may be a calculated decision to keep Russian command in back and let some confusion set in before taking them out once the line gets moving.

Or there may be some other reason. Maybe Zelenskyy is chomping at the bit to attack targets in Russia’s recognized borders.

 

[teepot]

If it was up me I would wait for about a month before I attacked. The Russians are on edge now. Imagine four weeks of nerve wracking waiting. They would be jumping at every little sound. Shooting at shadows. I think Bakhmut is a diversion. Reminds me of a sight gag. Two guys about to fight. One holds up his left hand and says "look at my hand" and the other guy does and gets knocked out by a right. Where Ukraine wants to go or how or when I have no idea.

 

[smstachwick]

If it was up me I would wait for about a month before I attacked. The Russians are on edge now. Imagine four weeks of nerve wracking waiting. They would be jumping at every little sound. Shooting at shadows. I think Bakhmut is a diversion. Reminds me of a sight gag. Two guys about to fight. One holds up his left hand and says "look at my hand" and the other guy does and gets knocked out by a right. Where Ukraine wants to go or how or when I have no idea.

A bit of anticipation may wear down their morale, but I wouldn’t want to go that long. The Russians are likely preparing counteroffensives of their own and right now Ukraine probably has the initiative.

 

[boatgeek]

Moving command centers away from the front may make it more difficult to get up-to-date information on battlefield conditions. Withholding missiles for now be a calculated decision to keep Russian command in back and let some confusion set in before taking them out once the line gets moving.

Or there may be some other reason. Maybe Zelenskyy is chomping at the bit to attack targets in Russia’s recognized borders.

I saw a side mention the other day that Russia had gotten better at jamming/spoofing GPS signals, making systems like HIMARS less accurate and therefore less valuable. Laser targeting is harder to jam, but of course requires a clear line of sight.

If it was up me I would wait for about a month before I attacked. The Russians are on edge now. Imagine four weeks of nerve wracking waiting. They would be jumping at every little sound. Shooting at shadows. I think Bakhmut is a diversion. Reminds me of a sight gag. Two guys about to fight. One holds up his left hand and says "look at my hand" and the other guy does and gets knocked out by a right. Where Ukraine wants to go or how or when I have no idea.

Some Dude on the Internet noted that there's a new moon on May 19. The Russians don't have great night-vision capabilities, so a counterattack on a dark night makes a lot of sense. On the other hand, Ukraine doesn't have a lot of experience in combined arms training, so maybe an attack in the dark of night doesn't make sense.

Clearly I cannot choose the wine in front of me.

 

[boatgeek]

What do you suppose this year’s Russian Victory Day Parade is going to look like on May 9? Do they still have any equipment or soldiers to parade? Maybe a few rusty WWII era tanks, some donkey carts, and put a bunch of prisoners in uniform? Maybe a parade of 100,000 moms holding pictures of their sons killed in Ukraine followed by 200,000 amputees who left limbs there?

Well, they put up a good show in light armored vehicles, but had one, count 'em, one tank. A literal WWII vintage T-34. Apparently, they couldn't even get the T-14s going. No fighter jet overflight, either.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...attack-ukraine-moscows-sacred-day-2023-05-09/

 

[Peartree]

Looks like Russia's hypersonic missile isn't unstoppable after all. Ukraine reportedly took one down within a month or so of getting a Patriot defense system online.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-patriot-kinzhal-6b59af8e60853b4d6d16dd8d607768be

The story I heard was that Russia's hypersonic missile is only hypersonic in the boost phase but in its terminal coast phase is actually flying close to normal speed for a cruise missile.

Prigozhin says he’s pulling Wagner out of Bakhmut on May 10 due to lack of ammunition. He says Wagner has lost tens of thousands of troops due to the Russian MoD not providing adequate ammo. He says he’ll transfer the Wagner positions to the Russian military and withdraw his troops to logistical centers to “lick our wounds”.

It could be a ploy to get more resources, or maybe he’s serious. Or maybe it’s a way to avoid blame if Bakhmut can’t be taken or falls back into Ukrainian control. Either way, it reflects in-fighting between Wagner and the Russian military.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65493008

And... the very next day Prigozhin retracted his statement saying that he is promised more ammunition. It seems that he's been told that he's not in charge and he *will* do as he is told. There may or may not have been threats of defenestration.

 

[boatgeek]

The story I heard was that Russia's hypersonic missile is only hypersonic in the boost phase but in its terminal coast phase is actually flying close to normal speed for a cruise missile.



And... the very next day Prigozhin retracted his statement saying that he is promised more ammunition. It seems that he's been told that he's not in charge and he *will* do as he is told. There may or may not have been threats of defenestration.

And today Prigozhin reports that he's been told that he'll either stay in Bakhmut or be labeled a traitor. We'll see if he's pushed a little further than his support allowed.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...still-no-sign-promised-ammunition-2023-05-09/

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Well, they put up a good show in light armored vehicles, but had one, count 'em, one tank. A literal WWII vintage T-34. Apparently, they couldn't even get the T-14s going. No fighter jet overflight, either.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...attack-ukraine-moscows-sacred-day-2023-05-09/

They have an operational T-34? Get that tank to the front!

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I’ve been seeing several editorials and opinion pieces, and even a few news reports with the opinions of Ukrainian or US officials, and they are trying to temper expectations for the counteroffensive.

War is very unpredictable, so maybe it’s smart to not get too carried away with hopes for an easy Ukrainian victory. But I also wonder if there’s other reasons for getting this story out. Is it about realistically lowering expectation for Ukrainian allies. Or is it about shaping the Russian perceptions about Ukrainian readiness? Hard to say. I guess we won’t know until it happens. I guess I’m going to try to stay cautiously optimistic.

 

[smstachwick]

I’ve been seeing several editorials and opinion pieces, and even a few news reports with the opinions of Ukrainian or US officials, and they are trying to temper expectations for the counteroffensive.

War is very unpredictable, so maybe it’s smart to not get too carried away with hopes for an easy Ukrainian victory. But I also wonder if there’s other reasons for getting this story out. Is it about realistically lowering expectation for Ukrainian allies. Or is it about shaping the Russian perceptions about Ukrainian readiness? Hard to say. I guess we won’t know until it happens. I guess I’m going to try to stay cautiously optimistic.

I’m not hoping for a complete Russian defeat just yet. Another offensive like we saw last summer/fall is about what I’m hoping for but I’m preparing for surprise either way.

 

[afadeev]

The story I heard was that Russia's hypersonic missile is only hypersonic in the boost phase but in its terminal coast phase is actually flying close to normal speed for a cruise missile.

The hypersonic missile in question is Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, and is a slightly updated air-launched version of the old Soviet 9K720 Iskander.
Neither one is any more, or any less hypersonic, then any other ballistic missile.
Which is to say that both fall towards target on ballistic trajectory at terminal speeds of above Mach 5.
In the case of truck-launched Iskander (designed in the 80s), it's terminal descent speed is around Mach 6–7.
Kinzhal is air-launched, so it piggy backs on the Mig-31 airframe to save fuel during the initial acceleration boost phase. Consequently, it can fly further and attain higher terminal velocity of around Mach 10.


Russia claims that both missiles can maneuver during the terminal hypersonic phase of the flight. That may, or may not be, a bluff. Or Russian definition of "maneuver" maybe equivalent to US definition of minor course correction.
The one that got intercepted by Patriot clearly did not maneuver enough.

https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/eviden...-kinzhal-missile-is-powered-by-american-tech/

 

[rocket_troy]

I’ve been seeing several editorials and opinion pieces, and even a few news reports with the opinions of Ukrainian or US officials, and they are trying to temper expectations for the counteroffensive.

War is very unpredictable, so maybe it’s smart to not get too carried away with hopes for an easy Ukrainian victory. But I also wonder if there’s other reasons for getting this story out. Is it about realistically lowering expectation for Ukrainian allies. Or is it about shaping the Russian perceptions about Ukrainian readiness? Hard to say. I guess we won’t know until it happens. I guess I’m going to try to stay cautiously optimistic.

We should also remember that Vlad has that nuke deterrent. It's that joker up his sleeve that really limits the rate that Russia is allowed to lose which is painful to watch as military & civilian lives are lost and heinous war crimes are committed almost daily [deep sigh].

TP

 

[boatgeek]

News out today that Ukraine has retaken substantial area in Bakhmut and that one of the Russian Army units has fled the city entirely. The retaken area is purportedly in single-digit square kilometers. If true, that is roughly a month's worth of Russian progress retaken in a day or two. Granted, the primary sources on this (Ukraine's MOD and Prigozhin) have substantial incentive to overstate the gains, so I'll wait for confirmation from more neutral sources before popping any figurative corks.

 

[PhilC]

Confirmed on Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...n-brigade-flees-bakhmut-outskirts-2023-05-10/

 

[afadeev]

We should also remember that Vlad has that nuke deterrent. It's that joker up his sleeve that really limits the rate that Russia is allowed to lose which is painful to watch as military & civilian lives are lost and heinous war crimes are committed almost daily [deep sigh].

I'm not sure nuke deterrent has any practical role in Ukrainian war. To date. Ukrainians have publicly stated they are not deterred from defending their land by the prospect of Russians using nukes on them (previously discussed here), and Russians can derive no tactical or strategic benefit from using nukes (also previously discussed).

However, even without nukes, the definition of what it will mean for Ukraine to "win" this war remains hazy.
Even if we gave them full use of all US military assets, then what?
That would certainly expedite the process of Ukrainians liberating their territory from Russians, but with Putin and his gang of neo-Imperialists in power in Kremlin, that is unlikely to end the war. Russia will just buy time to regroup, rearm, and attack Ukraine again at the time and place of their choosing.

I don't think Ukraine has enough manpower or resources to successfully march onto Moscow, and THAT is when the nukes might come into play, from Russian desperation. Nor has this been Ukrainians' ambition anyway.
So the only viable course of action for them, and for the West, is to defang Russian military from having any offensive capability to project power for the next decade or so.

From armor, experienced military units, and naval capability in Black sea perspective, Ukraine is well on the way towards that goal.
From airpower perspective, they are nowhere close, but we are largely containing Russian AF with the SAMs.

This war will end when the Russians themselves conclude that the pain of continuing the Ukrainian war of imperial expansion hopelessly outweighs the prospect of any future gains they can achieve with their degraded military capabilities.
We'll see how far along that road we can walk them with Ukrainians' spring/summer counter-offensive.

 

[smstachwick]

 

[PhilC]

This war will end when the Russians themselves conclude that the pain of continuing the Ukrainian war of imperial expansion hopelessly outweighs the prospect of any future gains they can achieve with their degraded military capabilities.

In war studies the criteria for victory are defeating the enemy in the field or undermining his will to continue. I think military defeat of Russia is unlikely. Undermining his will to continue is more likely. Continuing to push troops into the meat grinder is not a sustainable option for Putin. The losses in manpower and material cannot be hidden from the public indefinitely. More worrying to Putin must be the consumption of material and ammunition. It seems to exceed the ability of Russia (and possibly others) to supply it.
Ukraine's biggest worry must be that the west tires of supporting them. I think that's the only way Russia can win.

 

[Antares JS]

I seriously wonder if it might be morally better to just get directly involved. Russia would most likely be forced to fold in a matter of days or weeks if NATO actually joined Ukraine in the fight (plus whatever time it took to actually deploy and position NATO forces in Ukraine), and the war would be over swiftly, rather than being drawn out for more months or even years.

 

[Petrokas73]

I've been thinking the same thing since the start. When the president said "no American troops on the ground in Ukraine" it kind of tied our hands behind our backs.

Don't take this wrong, I don't wish for NATO solders in harms way. I just feel like the option might have been a card that Putin would have had to consider.

Obviously this is the least expensive way to contain the Russian expansion for the west. However, Ukraine is paying dearly and how much more will they need to until this is over.....

 

[afadeev]

Some of what we are talking about is below.
I don't agree with all of this guy's conclusions (prediction of famine in Crimea is widely overblown, Crimea has a multi-cultural population of under 2M people (not 3M Russians), Russian spring mobilization is way smaller than 1/2 million soldiers), but other observations have merit:

 

[boatgeek]

I seriously wonder if it might be morally better to just get directly involved. Russia would most likely be forced to fold in a matter of days or weeks if NATO actually joined Ukraine in the fight (plus whatever time it took to actually deploy and position NATO forces in Ukraine), and the war would be over swiftly, rather than being drawn out for more months or even years.

I hear you. Deploying and positioning would be fast--there's a couple of divisions in Poland at some level of alert. It wouldn't surprise me if Russia lost nearly all combat capability in Ukraine within two weeks of NATO actually getting involved.

What makes me less eager for that is something I saw early on when there was talk of a NATO no-fly zone. To establish air superiority and close the skies, NATO would need to destroy all anti-air assets within range of Ukraine's borders. I don't doubt that they can do that, but that zone extends some dozens of miles into Russia. While I don't take Vlad's nuclear threats about actions in Ukraine particularly seriously, I think there is a lot of room for error turning into catastrophe if we started bombing Russia proper.