Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

[rcktnut]

Putin is an exceedingly scary man. I will go further, I have no doubt that he is serious about using nukes, if he receives the wrong type of provocation; what that provocation is, is anybody’s guess. That’s what scares me.

I disagree, puny Putin has been a shak'en in his shoes over covid. The guys a coward, has to use threats to make him feel more secure. He's one of the last men on earth that would want to emerge from his bunker if he survives, to a nuclear waste land. He only sends the codes which the chicken sh*t won't, and those that push the button would most likely say FU Putin.

Time for us to show a little courage, exterminate Russian forces that are within Ukraines borders. The guys just like Hitler, just slower, he's gone far enough. I'm positive there are a lot of A-10 to F35 pilots out there that are licking their chops over that 40 mile long convoy. Don't be scared!!

 

[Peartree]

Germany and Europe, may have halted the pipeline for now, but either way, they'll be begging for it this fall.

My thought was similar but went this way, "When Germany is REALLY serious about helping Ukraine, they'll restart their idled nuclear reactors and coal fired power plants."

Green energy? Maybe not.

But, good for national security? Yes.

 

[heada]

I wish we (the free world) would go in and end this war with overwhelming force but we're stuck between a rock and a hard place.

If we go in and Putin hits the big red button, the world is pretty much screwed for a long time. They'd strike us, we'd strike them...lots of bad things. On the other hand, if we go in and Putin doesn't hit the big red button, then he'll be seen as powerless and ineffective and he'll be ousted in days/weeks. Russia would collapse in on itself due to the power vacuum and we'd have no idea who was in charge of the nearly 6000 nukes. The only safe option is to not go in which is what we're doing. That also means that we're handing Putin pretty much whatever he wants to take as long as it isn't a NATO country.

 

[Greg Furtman]

Sure, but ineffective. Putin didn't rise to power on his own. There's a ton of pressure on him to invade right now. It all comes back to that pipeline. They would never invade as long as the Ukraine controls their gas exports.

Lifting the embargo on the German pipeline was like leaving a suitcase of cash in my hotel room. I don't want to steal, but......... Russia can't resist this golden opportunity to take the Ukraine back. Ready or not, they'll never get an opportunity like this ever again. They got their pipeline, and the west is by far the weakest it's ever been.

Germany and Europe, may have halted the pipeline for now, but either way, they'll be begging for it this fall.

I think if we keep hard sanctions on the Oligarchs and start hurting them in their pocketbooks and seize their yachts & planes and make it impossible for them to get their money out of their banks (thank you Switzerland) they will grow very weary of Putin.

 

[MidOH]

I hope so.

 

[boatgeek]

I think of we keep hard sanctions on the Oligarchs and start hurting them in their pocketbooks and seize their yachts & planes and make it impossible for them to get their money out of their banks (thank you Switzerland) they will grow very weary of Putin.

It just occurred to me that Putin's practice of isolating himself to keep from getting COVID/assassinated might work to the advantage of a coup. Putin has a very limited number of advisors that he's in regular contact with. If a coup could isolate that bubble, he'd be rendered powerless. He may also be less likely to hear the rumblings of a coup before it springs.

 

[modeltrains]

If if weren't for the war being so deadly serious that would be hilarious,

Ukrainian authorities say citizens don't need to declare captured Russian tanks and military equipment for tax purposes
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukr...sian-tanks-not-personal-taxable-income-2022-3

Ukrainian authorities have reassured citizens that they don't need to declare captured Russian tanks or any equipment they pick up as personal income.

"Have you captured a Russian tank or armored personnel carrier and are worried about how to declare it? Keep calm and continue to defend the Motherland!" a statement from the Ukrainian National Agency on Corruption Prevention seen by Interfax-Ukraine said.

Hmm,

"Keep calm and defend the Motherland!"

Should be a tshirt and a hoodie.

 

[Blast it Tom!]

If if weren't for the war being so deadly serious that would be hilarious,

Ukrainian authorities say citizens don't need to declare captured Russian tanks and military equipment for tax purposes
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukr...sian-tanks-not-personal-taxable-income-2022-3


Hmm,

"Keep calm and defend the Motherland!"

Should be a tshirt and a hoodie.

I think it's grand - and another thumb in the eye to the Russians. Zelenskyy is continuing to show defiance, bless the man. I'd sure love to see his folks take out some of that 40 mile convoy, as someone upthread said, a few A-10's and some bunker-busters and that group is in a world of hurt!

 

[K'Tesh]

I think it's grand - and another thumb in the eye to the Russians. Zelenskyy is continuing to show defiance, bless the man. I'd sure love to see his folks take out some of that 40 mile convoy, as someone upthread said, a few A-10's and some bunker-busters and that group is in a world of hurt!

Problem is, the Russian Air Force is larger, and can afford to lose more planes compared to the Ukrainian Air Force. But I agree, a hit on the convoy's front and rear would make quite the point to the guys in it.

 

[Peartree]

Problem is, the Russian Air Force is larger, and can afford to lose more planes compared to the Ukrainian Air Force. But I agree, a hit on the convoy's front and rear would make quite the point to the guys in it.

It wouldn't even take that. From some of the pictures I've seen, they often seem to be on a very narrow road, at the bottom of an impassable ravine/gorge/slope. Those are natural choke points. If you can mine, bomb, or otherwise blockade one or more of those choke points, the entire column stops until it can be cleared. Get a few guerilla fighters to hike up in the mountains with man portable TOW missiles or Vulcans, or something similar (even LAW rockets would make a mess) and you can create all sorts of chaos disproportionate to the manpower expended. A few squads doing "shoot and scoot" and you can really screw up a column like that.

 

[Blast it Tom!]

It wouldn't even take that. From some of the pictures I've seen, they often seem to be on a very narrow road, at the bottom of an impassable ravine/gorge/slope. Those are natural choke points. If you can mine, bomb, or otherwise blockade one or more of those choke points, the entire column stops until it can be cleared. Get a few guerilla fighters to hike up in the mountains with man portable TOW missiles or Vulcans, or something similar (even LAW rockets would make a mess) and you can create all sorts of chaos disproportionate to the manpower expended. A few squads doing "shoot and scoot" and you can really screw up a column like that.

Exactly. And I also note, airplanes can be painted... just sayin'...

 

[K'Tesh]

It wouldn't even take that. From some of the pictures I've seen, they often seem to be on a very narrow road, at the bottom of an impassable ravine/gorge/slope. Those are natural choke points. If you can mine, bomb, or otherwise blockade one or more of those choke points, the entire column stops until it can be cleared. Get a few guerilla fighters to hike up in the mountains with man portable TOW missiles or Vulcans, or something similar (even LAW rockets would make a mess) and you can create all sorts of chaos disproportionate to the manpower expended. A few squads doing "shoot and scoot" and you can really screw up a column like that.

But your forces would be vulnerable from aerial attack... The scoot part would need to be really fast, and you have to hope that the Russians don't have forces up there already looking to shield the column.

 

[Blast it Tom!]

But your forces would be vulnerable from aerial attack... The scoot part would need to be really fast, and you have to hope that the Russians don't have forces up there already looking to shield the column.

Very true, but I note the Finns put Stalin's troops through H-E-double toothpicks in 1939 with their strong determination and sharpshooting, hit-and-run tactics and so on. I just read that (though it may be apocryphal) there went a saying among them as the Russian invasion approached "There are so many of them, and our country is so small - where shall we find room to bury them all?" It probably didn't rhyme in Finnish, but man, if true, that's just raw guts there.

You can't protect both flanks of a column like that with troops in the weeds for 40 miles. And top cover by the MIGs is tough to keep up constantly, at 100% as well.

We can't armchair this very well from here to be sure, I just know that it appears that the Ukranians are a lot more determined than the poor souls that Vladimir sent in to accomplish his will. And that can take you a long way in a situation like this. I just hope we can get enough support to them quickly enough. This is already turning into an embarrassment for Putin, every day makes it worse. God bless the Ukrainian resistance!

 

[rcktnut]

I'm thinking 1 B-52 flying in Polish airspace with it's 20 cruise missiles would do the trick for that column. Take a Ukrainian refugee up, show them how to release the missiles. We didn't do it, just suppling the weapons.

 

[heada]

4 teams of 2 men with Javelins. 2 at the front and 2 at the rear. Along with that, 2 teams of 2 with a stinger, 1 team at the front and 1 at the rear to take out any air cover that comes. Total of 12 men with 6 pieces of weaponry that would put a serious hurt on that column. Even if the shoot and scoot doesn't work and it becomes a suicide mission, I'm sure there'd be men lining up to take it on. Repeat that every day at a different pair of points.

Give the teams laser designators and let a few reapers get "lost" from Turkey or Poland. Several hellfires dropping from 60k feet would result in a "bad day" for them as well.

 

[MidOH]

I'm thinking 1 B-52 flying in Polish airspace with it's 20 cruise missiles would do the trick for that column. Take a Ukrainian refugee up, show them how to release the missiles. We didn't do it, just suppling the weapons.

That's what I'm thinking as well. 700 cruise missiles launched from well over the horizon. Simce this is halfway our nations fault, it's the least we can do to help.

Deny everything. And if Putin wants to get lippy about it, he can kiss every single one of his submarines good by, that same minute.

 

[MidOH]

I disagree, puny Putin has been a shak'en in his shoes over covid. The guys a coward, has to use threats to make him feel more secure. He's one of the last men on earth that would want to emerge from his bunker if he survives, to a nuclear waste land. He only sends the codes which the chicken sh*t won't, and those that push the button would most likely say FU Putin.

Time for us to show a little courage, exterminate Russian forces that are within Ukraines borders. The guys just like Hitler, just slower, he's gone far enough. I'm positive there are a lot of A-10 to F35 pilots out there that are licking their chops over that 40 mile long convoy. Don't be scared!!

I agree. Putin wants the Ukraine. But he wouldn't start this without huge pressure from his supporters.

And don't forget, his troops are completely expendable. He (they) don't care enough about them to go nuclear. His (their) threat to go nuclear is because they don't want to lose, not because they give a darn about the Russian troops.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Lots of armchair generals rattling their sabers now! Take it easy, guys! No need to jump straight to Armageddon just yet. Let’s savor the End Times!

Speaking of which, who wants to steal a yacht with me? Apparently some congressman is submitting a bill to have the US issue “Letters of Marque” that would authorize private citizens to seize vessels and aircraft of Russian oligarchs. Basically old-style privateers, or state-sanctioned piracy. The US hasn’t done this for over 200 years, but if they start up again, we’ve got to get in on it! I always dreamed of being a pirate! Who’s with me? Let’s get a boat!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...s-let-you-seize-this-russian-oligarchs-yacht/

 

[Greg Furtman]

It wouldn't even take that. From some of the pictures I've seen, they often seem to be on a very narrow road, at the bottom of an impassable ravine/gorge/slope. Those are natural choke points. If you can mine, bomb, or otherwise blockade one or more of those choke points, the entire column stops until it can be cleared. Get a few guerilla fighters to hike up in the mountains with man portable TOW missiles or Vulcans, or something similar (even LAW rockets would make a mess) and you can create all sorts of chaos disproportionate to the manpower expended. A few squads doing "shoot and scoot" and you can really screw up a column like that.

During the Winter War of 1939 when the Soviets invaded Finland they brought in all their mechanized forces on a narrow road through the forest, hardly anything more that a logging road. The Finns would ski across the convoy and throw satchel charges and blow up trucks & tanks in different places at the same time. The Soviets couldn't proceed until they removed all the obstacles. Really slowed the bastards down.

 

[heada]

Lots of armchair generals rattling their sabers now! Take it easy, guys! No need to jump straight to Armageddon just yet. Let’s savor the End Times!

Speaking of which, who wants to steal a yacht with me? Apparently some congressman is submitting a bill to have the US issue “Letters of Marque” that would authorize private citizens to seize vessels and aircraft of Russian oligarchs. Basically old-style privateers, or state-sanctioned piracy. The US hasn’t done this for over 200 years, but if they start up again, we’ve got to get in on it! I always dreamed of being a pirate! Who’s with me? Let’s get a boat!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...s-let-you-seize-this-russian-oligarchs-yacht/

Arrrr! Sign me up matey!

 

[Orien]

I disagree, puny Putin has been a shak'en in his shoes over covid. The guys a coward, has to use threats to make him feel more secure. He's one of the last men on earth that would want to emerge from his bunker if he survives, to a nuclear waste land. He only sends the codes which the chicken sh*t won't, and those that push the button would most likely say FU Putin.

Time for us to show a little courage, exterminate Russian forces that are within Ukraines borders. The guys just like Hitler, just slower, he's gone far enough. I'm positive there are a lot of A-10 to F35 pilots out there that are licking their chops over that 40 mile long convoy. Don't be scared!!

If it’s such a juicy target, why can’t the Ukrainians hit it? Has their air force been wiped out already? Have they no rockets? Missiles? Artillery? They need foreign intervention for this? Where’s the Ghost of Kiev?

 

[MidOH]

Arrrr! Sign me up matey!

Are there any on the Great Lakes?

 

[PhilC]

I'm thinking 1 B-52 flying in Polish airspace with it's 20 cruise missiles would do the trick for that column. Take a Ukrainian refugee up, show them how to release the missiles. We didn't do it, just suppling the weapons.

I'm not convinced that an attack from NATO airspace would be deniable.

 

[boatgeek]

Lots of armchair generals rattling their sabers now! Take it easy, guys! No need to jump straight to Armageddon just yet. Let’s savor the End Times!

Speaking of which, who wants to steal a yacht with me? Apparently some congressman is submitting a bill to have the US issue “Letters of Marque” that would authorize private citizens to seize vessels and aircraft of Russian oligarchs. Basically old-style privateers, or state-sanctioned piracy. The US hasn’t done this for over 200 years, but if they start up again, we’ve got to get in on it! I always dreamed of being a pirate! Who’s with me? Let’s get a boat!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...s-let-you-seize-this-russian-oligarchs-yacht/

I'll lend my expertise to that cutting-out expedition for a share of the profits! Half to Ukraine, half split among the crew?

At first glance, it's probably not legal.
https://law.jrank.org/pages/8441/Marque-Reprisal.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Declaration_Respecting_Maritime_LawBut! The US didn't sign the 1856 treaty outlawing privateering, they just "agreed to abide by it." Times change, me hearties!

 

[Peartree]

If it’s such a juicy target, why can’t the Ukrainians hit it? Has their air force been wiped out already? Have they no rockets? Missiles? Artillery? They need foreign I for this? Where’s the Ghost of Kiev?

It can't be easy. We don't know how much of Ukraine's air force exists or is useful. Russia seems to have a dominant air superiority. Rockets? I don't know that they ever had any kind of medium range rockets (essentially cruise missiles). They do have short range, battlefield rockets, like Javelins, but they are a line of sight weapon so firing on something hundreds of miles, or even fifty miles away isn't possible. Artillery? Almost the same answer. Artillery has a range of 15 to 25 miles at most and you need to have a forward observer either on the ground or in the air. So yeah, infantry can do this, as I mentioned, but their odds of survival aren't good (but it's still often worthwhile to trade a few infantry soldiers to screw up a miles long convoy of supplies and weapons). Air power may not be able to penetrate Russian air defenses at all.

 

[Peartree]

I'm not convinced that an attack from NATO airspace would be deniable.

It wouldn't.

 

[Greg Furtman]

Lots of armchair generals rattling their sabers now! Take it easy, guys! No need to jump straight to Armageddon just yet. Let’s savor the End Times!

Speaking of which, who wants to steal a yacht with me? Apparently some congressman is submitting a bill to have the US issue “Letters of Marque” that would authorize private citizens to seize vessels and aircraft of Russian oligarchs. Basically old-style privateers, or state-sanctioned piracy. The US hasn’t done this for over 200 years, but if they start up again, we’ve got to get in on it! I always dreamed of being a pirate! Who’s with me? Let’s get a boat!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...s-let-you-seize-this-russian-oligarchs-yacht/

I'm ordering up an eyepatch and a parrot.

 

[Greg Furtman]

Very true, but I note the Finns put Stalin's troops through H-E-double toothpicks in 1939 with their strong determination and sharpshooting, hit-and-run tactics and so on. I just read that (though it may be apocryphal) there went a saying among them as the Russian invasion approached "There are so many of them, and our country is so small - where shall we find room to bury them all?" It probably didn't rhyme in Finnish, but man, if true, that's just raw guts there.

Krushev was reported to say that the Soviets lost a million men trying to take Finland! Never underestimate a country trying to protect themselves from invasion.

 

[MidOH]

Tomahawk cruise missile has a 1500 mile range.

Is the Med that close?

 

[boatgeek]

It can't be easy. We don't know how much of Ukraine's air force exists or is useful. Russia seems to have a dominant air superiority. Rockets? I don't know that they ever had any kind of medium range rockets (essentially cruise missiles). They do have short range, battlefield rockets, like Javelins, but they are a line of sight weapon so firing on something hundreds of miles, or even fifty miles away isn't possible. Artillery? Almost the same answer. Artillery has a range of 15 to 25 miles at most and you need to have a forward observer either on the ground or in the air. So yeah, infantry can do this, as I mentioned, but their odds of survival aren't good (but it's still often worthwhile to trade a few infantry soldiers to screw up a miles long convoy of supplies and weapons). Air power may not be able to penetrate Russian air defenses at all.

An awful lot of the convoy pictures that I saw were soft-sided trucks. You wouldn't need Javelins or LAWs to make a hash of them. RPGs, old school thrown grenades, or even Molotov cocktails would probably do the job.

Since it appears to be that easy, I'm guessing that the Ukrainians have deliberately decided not to attack it. Maybe that's because they think that it won't actually get to Kyiv, maybe they have more important targets right now, maybe the PR value of the convoy is high while it's still on the road but barely moving, maybe something else.