Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

SilicdyneTRF
eggtimer rocketry
rocket sok
The Rocketry Forum

Help Support The Rocketry Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
So there's at least one source out there saying that Prigozhin regularly flew with his transponder turned off, that his plane went down midway between Moscow and St. Petersburg, and noted that there have been a lot of drone attacks in Moscow lately. so it's at least theoretically possible that it was a "friendly fire" accident caused by Prigozhin's paranoia and trigger-happy air defense.

OK, I don't really believe that either. I'll give Prigozhin all the mourning he deserves...

Aaaand I'm back. Nearly shed a single tiny tear there.
 
Last edited:
So, what happens now... i mean a lot of questions floating in the air for me...

1) Are we 100% he died?

2) If so, what does it make him? ( An accidental martyr?) ( A political message?) ( Or no one cares and everything carries on?)

3) How much of the real truth are we getting from the crash? This is Russian state media...

4) Will this be a Putin dethroning event?

5) What does Wagner do?
 
I don’t know if Prigozhin was on the plane; but I would be very surprised if he’s not dead. Putin probably didn’t feel that he could allow him to live after Prigozhin made him look like a fool. Putin had to make it spectacular and public as a warning to others who might also be tempted to buck him. With the Ruble as devalued as it is, Putin probably wanted access Prigozhin’s billions that might be tucked away as US 💵.
 
Last edited:
Matt_The_RocketMan said:
So, what happens now... i mean a lot of questions floating in the air for me...

1) Are we 100% he died?
Click to expand...
Definitely not. He has a history of putting his name on one passenger list and getting on another plane. He has a definite motive to go underground. However, it's likely that he's /functionally/ dead in that we will likely never see his name again. Most likely, he's headed off to live the rest of his days on a heavily-guarded beach.
Matt_The_RocketMan said:
2) If so, what does it make him? ( An accidental martyr?) ( A political message?) ( Or no one cares and everything carries on?)
Click to expand...
Probably a political message, whether he's actually dead or faked his own death. And I do think that everything carries on, except possibly for Wagner (see below)
Matt_The_RocketMan said:
3) How much of the real truth are we getting from the crash? This is Russian state media...
Click to expand...
I trust that radio tower approximately as far as I can throw it...
Matt_The_RocketMan said:
4) Will this be a Putin dethroning event?
Click to expand...
Highly unlikely, unless Prigozhin faked his own death to take the heat off for a few weeks while he plans a coup. Even now, I'm sure Russian intelligence knows whether Prigozhin was actually on that plane or not. If they actually want to kill him, he has a limited survival time. Absent a coup in a few weeks, I think this allows Putin to consolidate power by showing what happens to those who oppose him.
Matt_The_RocketMan said:
5) What does Wagner do?
Click to expand...
Maybe it carries on looting and war criming its way through Syria and Africa, maybe the organization collapses. I think the former is more likely since there's money to be made but one can always hope for the latter. In theory, Wagner's co-founder was on the plane that went down, along with senior security staff and the money person. That kind of beheading can topple an organization. For how accurate the theory that they all died is, see #1. I find it a little hard to believe that the entire senior management was on a single plane in nominally hostile airspace though.
 
boatgeek said:
Definitely not. He has a history of putting his name on one passenger list and getting on another plane. He has a definite motive to go underground. However, it's likely that he's /functionally/ dead in that we will likely never see his name again. Most likely, he's headed off to live the rest of his days on a heavily-guarded beach.

Probably a political message, whether he's actually dead or faked his own death. And I do think that everything carries on, except possibly for Wagner (see below)

I trust that radio tower approximately as far as I can throw it...

Highly unlikely, unless Prigozhin faked his own death to take the heat off for a few weeks while he plans a coup. Even now, I'm sure Russian intelligence knows whether Prigozhin was actually on that plane or not. If they actually want to kill him, he has a limited survival time. Absent a coup in a few weeks, I think this allows Putin to consolidate power by showing what happens to those who oppose him.

Maybe it carries on looting and war criming its way through Syria and Africa, maybe the organization collapses. I think the former is more likely since there's money to be made but one can always hope for the latter. In theory, Wagner's co-founder was on the plane that went down, along with senior security staff and the money person. That kind of beheading can topple an organization. For how accurate the theory that they all died is, see #1. I find it a little hard to believe that the entire senior management was on a single plane in nominally hostile airspace though.
Click to expand...
I think, you answered the questions pretty well. I agree that he probably isnt dead and used the event to slip out of the political light forever, and evade being assassinated.

On the other hand, I feel like Putin's days are numbered, no progress on the front lines, home front is being attacked so the facade of being safe for most Russians isnt so, in which even propaganda cant fix.

I do feel like if a resolution of the war is to come, its probably going to be a tragic ending for the Russian people, as historically speaking costly wars caused the people to straight up revolt and topple the said power. (When is it going to happen, we dont know but it will happen if the war is dragged on)
 
BBC News channel in the UK reports that locals heard a bang before the plane started to fall which suggests an explosion, either onboard or from weapons fire.
The other interesting snippet from the BBC was that there's a lot of personal loyalty to Prigozhin among the Wagner group. Perhaps some of them will seek revenge. It's a good time for generals and Putins inner circle to stay away from windows.
 
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-66599774
  • Pentagon: there is no information to indicate that a surface-to-air missile brought down the plane and will not be drawn on what other reason could have caused the crash.
  • Pentagon: Prigozhin was 'likely killed' in plane crash.
  • Puiin: “initial information suggests” Wagner leaders were on the plane.
Not too definitive from ANYWHERE.
But yeah, 1 of the 2 Wagner planes that were flying one behind the other, was brought down, one way or another. The other went back to Moscow, and then flew abroad.

Clear as mud.

a
 
The video of the jet coming down is eerie. It took a long time for it to fall. More than likely the passengers were dead well in advance, or at least unconscious, considering the altitude that the tail was blown off at, by a bomb that was planted... wait, no, the missile strike that blew it off (probable)... No... ok... I got it now... the unfortunate accident that the Russians will publicly investigate and determine how this horrific tragedy could have occured.
 
Evidence of shrapnel on released videos seems to conclusively point to being taken out by a SAM. That certainly seems like Putin took them out.

The odd point though is that it would be unbelievably terrible operational security to put ALL of your top leadership on one airplane in hostile airspace. If anything points to this being Pregozin faking his death, that would be it.

In other news, apparently the big Crimean anti-aircraft radar kaboom was done by amphibious special forces on the ground. The Ukrainians are definitely shaking things up.
 
The Russians said they would do a molecular study of the bodies. Did it in a day. That seems to fast to me. And how or why did the Russian government have DNA of everyone on the plane. I don't think Pregozhin was/is stupid. Why would the entire group of leaders be on the same plane. They didn't do that before. I think Putin said they didn't need DNA. Just go off the passenger list. It would not surprise me if Pregozhin showed up somewhere.
 
If they landed a small number of troops, skirmished with the Russians, and vacated a short time later that's only significant for propaganda purposes.
If they landed a large number of troops and equipment, established a beachhead and expanded it then THAT would be significant.
 

Similar threads

B
Interesting Reading
Replies
7
Views
527
cls
C
Dotini
Serious Nation Security Threat?
3 4 5
Replies
127
Views
4K
Peartree
Peartree
smstachwick
(Un)official Star Wars Rebels Thread
2
Replies
43
Views
2K
smstachwick
smstachwick
Winston
Drunken Ukrainian Air Force Officer Smashed His Volkswagen Into A MiG-29 Fighter
Replies
14
Views
2K
rellis2
rellis2
Winston
Everything New We Just Learned About The 2020 Iranian Missile Attack On U.S. Forces In Iraq
Replies
0
Views
816
Winston
Winston

Latest posts

Back
Top