Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

[boatgeek]

Mmmm perhaps.

More likely, I bet:. Russia wants those squatters to hold fake elections in favor of joining Russia, so that when Ukraine forces move in to reclaim their territory, Putin can say "see see, those meanies attacked Russia! Now this means war!"

I don't think that Putin ever really wanted Donetsk and Luhansk, except as a means to an end. IMHO, the only value of invading there was dividing Ukraine's attention away from Crimea. He definitely wants Crimea, and maybe was interested in taking the rest of the Black Sea coast. The tell is that Putin never made any moves to annex the separatist pieces of Donetsk and Luhansk like he did with Crimea. Russia has also been quick to drop pro-Russian Ukrainians (even ones with Russian passports!) like hot rocks once they try to leave Ukraine for Russia.

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[Antares JS]

I don't think that Putin ever really wanted Donetsk and Luhansk, except as a means to an end. IMHO, the only value of invading there was dividing Ukraine's attention away from Crimea. He definitely wants Crimea, and maybe was interested in taking the rest of the Black Sea coast. The tell is that Putin never made any moves to annex the separatist pieces of Donetsk and Luhansk like he did with Crimea. Russia has also been quick to drop pro-Russian Ukrainians (even ones with Russian passports!) like hot rocks once they try to leave Ukraine for Russia.

This opinion worth exactly what you paid for it.

You're probably partly right, but the other bit of value in invading the Donbas and recognizing Luhansk and Donetsk is that countries with current territorial disputes cannot join NATO.

 

[boatgeek]

You're probably partly right, but the other bit of value in invading the Donbas and recognizing Luhansk and Donetsk is that countries with current territorial disputes cannot join NATO.

That's an interesting point, though the more immediate issue is that Russia could declare it a war if "their territory" is invaded. That gives more flexibility for conscription, forcing people to fight, etc. Of course, it doesn't resolve the basic issue that they have very limited equipment. Lots of troops with no armored vehicles = piles of bodies and no territorial gains.

In the long run, Ukraine will likely want to join NATO and any other territorial claims would be an issue. I would expect that the West would insist that Russia give up all territorial claims to [pre-2022 or pre-2014 Ukraine] as a condition of dropping economic sanctions. That would clear Ukraine's entry into NATO. Ukraine's current negotiating position is that the borders should return to pre-2014. The better they do on the battlefield, the more likely they'll be able to make that stick.

I would hope that the ballots are being tracked by intelligence services as they come into the country. A few weeks ago, Ukraine destroyed a warehouse full of ballots. It's tough to hold a referendum if there's no ballots...

 

[cls]

This opinion worth exactly what you paid for it.

$0.03 because of inflation

the more immediate issue is that Russia could declare it a war if "their territory" is invaded.

Yes, exactly

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I think the idea is that recognizing these regions as Russian territory gives Putin more options for declaring war, or declaring a general mobilization. That provides more options for conscription of soldiers and diverting more personnel and equipment that is currently designated for defending Russian soil and not allowed to be used for a “special military operation”.

Of course, Putin doesn’t need these provinces to be part of Russia to declare war or a general mobilization. He could just do it. So far, it seems like he has been reluctant for internal political reasons. It seems to me like this scheme would tie his hands. This seems to me like something being pushed by the separatist leaders of Luhansk and Donetsk because they don’t feel like they are getting adequate protection, and by Russian hard-liners who feel like Putin is losing the war. Maybe they want to tie his hands.

I was just in my car and partially heard a report about Putin giving a speech tomorrow on this topic, but I didn’t catch the whole thing.

 

[teepot]

Under the Donbas is a lot of oil. I am surprised that the Russians didn't try to take Odessa. To me that was the prize Putin wanted. The farm land would give him leverage with the undeveloped countries of Africa and the Middle East. And who doesn't want oil.

 

[boatgeek]

Under the Donbas is a lot of oil. I am surprised that the Russians didn't try to take Odessa. To me that was the prize Putin wanted. The farm land would give him leverage with the undeveloped countries of Africa and the Middle East. And who doesn't want oil.

The Russians tried to take Odessa. They just only made it to the next river over from Kherson before getting stopped. Turns out the only kinds of war the Russians are good at are war crimes and advancing meters per day over land utterly leveled by artillery.

 

[afadeev]

I’ve seen several reports today and yesterday that separatist leaders in the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts want to hold an expedited referendum on joining the Russian Federation and they want Russia to officially recognize them as part of Russia. [...] Russia does not have complete control over Luhansk and Donetsk, so why would Putin want to declare them to be Russian territory and then deal with the criticism that he cannot control the nation’s territory? That’s a bigger problem than the one he has now.

That move comes across as an act of desperation to distract domestic audiences from how poorly the war is going down.
There is no pretense of legitimacy to the "referendum" card, but Putin's propaganda machine can spin it at home as "progress is being made" if not "mission accomplished".
From European / American perspective, it will be an irrelevant clown show that may marginally piss people off and reinforce resolve to flush Russia down the toilet.
From Ukrainian perspective, it will like piss them off even more. Just in case they need extra motivation to kick Russian ass.

so that when Ukraine forces move in to reclaim their territory, Putin can say "see see, those meanies attacked Russia!
Now this means war!"

As opposed to a friendly quarrel over Thanksgiving table that has been going down for the prior 6 months....

The hard reality is that Putin has NOTHING to escalate with anymore. No extra equipment to throw into the war (without unpopular and economically ruinous mobilization), no reserves to throw into the fight (Russia has already pulled forces out of Africa, Syria, and all domestic border areas), and no infrastructure left to build or train the replacement force. I consider nukes to fall under the above consideration - they are totally useless in the context of war with Ukraine. Tactical nukes could only be used against massive troop concentrations (e.g.: stadium full of people), of which Ukraine offers none. And the fallout from their use would only make things more challenging for Russia's own forces. Bigger strategic nukes only make these problem worse, never mind the international and US response would likely be swift, overwhelming, and catastrophic to Russia.

When Ukraine attacked Crimea, which Russia nominally pretends is its territory, Putin did nothing. Because he could not do a thing.
More on that from Ward Carroll interviewing David Axe:

You're probably partly right, but the other bit of value in invading the Donbas and recognizing Luhansk and Donetsk is that countries with current territorial disputes cannot join NATO.

That card had already been plaid after Russia annexed Crimea and occupied parts of Easter Ukraine in 2014..
Ukraine wasn't going to recognize loss of Crimea then any more or less than it would recognize Russia's move on any other part of its territory.

a

 

[PhilC]

Bigger strategic nukes only make these problem worse, never mind the international and US response would likely be swift, overwhelming, and catastrophic to Russia.

Somehow I can’t see the USA, UK or France launching a nuclear attack on Russia if it choses to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Would Washington really initiate a general nuclear exchange in those circumstances? I could, however, see support from China and some central Asian states melting away if Russia is that foolish.

 

[Dotini]

Somehow I can’t see the USA, UK or France launching a nuclear attack on Russia if it choses to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Would Washington really initiate a general nuclear exchange in those circumstances? I could, however, see support from China and some central Asian states melting away if Russia is that foolish.

Is the human race essentially bent on a course of madness and self destruction? Are we controlled by our basest instincts, evil gods and demons? Protracted war in Ukraine combined with catastrophic damage to the economies, politics and energy situation in Europe might seem a juicy prospect for the harbingers of doom and disaster, confirming the very worst in us. Watching all this play out in real time on TV might be a worthwhile trip for apocalyptic redneck millennialists in the US. But even though I'm old with one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel, I would prefer a negotiated settlement before this thing destroys civilization too much more.

 

[PhilC]

Is the human race essentially bent on a course of madness and self destruction? Are we controlled by our basest instincts, evil gods and demons? Protracted war in Ukraine combined with catastrophic damage to the economies, politics and energy situation in Europe might seem a juicy prospect for the harbingers of doom and disaster, confirming the very worst in us. Watching all this play out in real time on TV might be a worthwhile trip for apocalyptic redneck millennialists in the US. But even though I'm old with one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel, I would prefer a negotiated settlement before this thing destroys civilization too much more.

I tend to leave the ’evil gods and demons‘ stuff to those better qualified.
Once again I’ll point put that, while there are problems with economies politics and energy here in Europe, we’re a long way from ’catastrophic damage’. National governments and the EU are producing workarounds. We’ve got through a lot worse than this in the past.

 

[Steve Shannon]

Is the human race essentially bent on a course of madness and self destruction? Are we controlled by our basest instincts, evil gods and demons? Protracted war in Ukraine combined with catastrophic damage to the economies, politics and energy situation in Europe might seem a juicy prospect for the harbingers of doom and disaster, confirming the very worst in us. Watching all this play out in real time on TV might be a worthwhile trip for apocalyptic redneck millennialists in the US. But even though I'm old with one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel, I would prefer a negotiated settlement before this thing destroys civilization too much more.

And by “we” you mean Putin?
Nobody else is invading a sovereign country. Nobody else is attempting to deceive the entire population of his own country in order to subjugate the entire population of another country.
Nobody else is trying to draft 300,000 experienced conscripts. Nobody else is doubling down on a failed “Special Military Operation.”
So, apparently the answer is yes, Putin is controlled by his basest instincts, evil gods and demons. Nothing will change until the people of Russia do something about it. Hopefully something very final for Putin.

 

[Greg Furtman]

I ran across this article this morning. Now, even more, I do not consider Russia a "civilized" country.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62970845

 

[georgegassaway]

Regarding usefulness of nuclear weapons in this war, I thought I saw a post here, but perhaps I read it in a news article or such.

Effectively, it said nuclear weapons would not be of much use against Ukrainan troops, unless they were gathered in a large group like a stadium, but they are not. They are too spread out in smaller groups. While attacking some weapons depots might be useful, there is one scenario that would probably end the war in days, .or at least a massively devastating blow

If Russia sent several nukes to "pepper" Kiev, when they knew president Zelenskyy was there, as history's sloppiest assassination attempt (and worst war crime since WW-II). Of course, for some time, he has been staying in the same building, but I would hope since then that he has been staying at various other places and moved around with great secrecy so Russian spies there can't track him. Otherwise, use a small tactical nuke to take out that one building including the bomb shelter it must have (never mind the uncertainty at this point if a small tactical nuke would land accurately enough to take it out, given how inaccurate many Russian missiles have been in this war).

Without Zelenskyy, I think it would be vary hard for the Ukrainain war effort to go forward. And if Kiev got "peppered", and the whole city [pretty much destroyed, that would take out a lot of critical leadership and military command structure. Imagine a "Stealth" nuclear attack out of nowhere that hit Washington D.C with less than 3 minutes notice. (I presume if Russia launched short range nuclear missiles from their border to Kiev, that the U.S. could warn Kiev they have been launched ,but even that would take some time to relay, and no time left to leave for elsewhere).

I mean, if Putler/Pootin becomes more hell-bent to "Win" by any means, that's the most likely way to end it, world consequences be damned,

 

[WoShuGui]

Nobody else is trying to draft 300,000 experienced conscripts.

The media is using the term reservist which implies these are people who are obligated to serve if called. That said, if they are former conscripts, it goes against the statement that conscripts are not being sent into combat.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

This partial mobilization is not going to be popular. I heard flights out of Moscow sold out shortly after the announcement— lots of people leaving before they get called up.

I also think the mobilization is probably not going to be much use. I doubt Russia has the ability to prepare and equip this many reservists. And if they do get 300,000 soldiers into Ukraine, how are they going to support them with their logistics the way they are?

One plus for Russia is that these people at least have some kind of prior military service, unlike the raw conscripts, “volunteers”, and prisoners that they’ve been getting recently and sending to the front with zero training, but that doesn’t mean these reservists are ready for combat. I don’t really know, but I kind of suspect that Russian reservists do not receive much in the way of ongoing training.

I wonder if there are any officers in the reserves who are being called up. Russia is not just running low on canon fodder, they are also running out of officers.

 

[smstachwick]

Better get some more out there. The snipers are going hungry!

 

[NOLA_BAR]

This partial mobilization is not going to be popular. I heard flights out of Moscow sold out shortly after the announcement— lots of people leaving before they get called up.

I also think the mobilization is probably not going to be much use. I doubt Russia has the ability to prepare and equip this many reservists. And if they do get 300,000 soldiers into Ukraine, how are they going to support them with their logistics the way they are?

One plus for Russia is that these people at least have some kind of prior military service, unlike the raw conscripts, “volunteers”, and prisoners that they’ve been getting recently and sending to the front with zero training, but that doesn’t mean these reservists are ready for combat. I don’t really know, but I kind of suspect that Russian reservists do not receive much in the way of ongoing training.

I wonder if there are any officers in the reserves who are being called up. Russia is not just running low on canon fodder, they are also running out of officers.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...-in-minutes-after-putins-speech-on-conscripts

 

[boatgeek]

The head of Moscow Aviation Institute died after a fall. Though this time it was down "several flights of stairs" and not out a window. Apparently people have gotten the message not to hang out near windows.

At first, I thought this might be related to the number of people trying to book flights out of country, but it appears that the MAI is a technical university, not an administrative entity.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-ally-dies-falling-down-stairs-day-russia-mobilization-1744944

 

[afadeev]

Somehow I can’t see the USA, UK or France launching a nuclear attack on Russia if it choses to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Me neither.
Using nukes in Ukraine, by any side, is massively counter-productive.
Here is what a retired US general has to say on that:

Would Washington really initiate a general nuclear exchange in those circumstances?

Not at all.
Because there is no need, and no purpose. We will respond, if attacked (US or NATO), but otherwise, there is no point.
See the above.

I could, however, see support from China and some central Asian states melting away if Russia is that foolish.

Indeed.
FWIW, Ukrainian president had recently requested to speak to the UN via video instead of attending the session in person (as is customary). Russia, predictably, objected.
A vote was held, which Russia lost 101-7. China obtained. India voted against Russia.
Countries supporting Russia were: Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, Nicaragua, North Korea, Russia and Syria.
That's it.
https://apnews.com/article/united-n...ne-zelenskyy-2427ea0fce71024167bbecc6db0a6cc2

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

The head of Moscow Aviation Institute died after a fall. Though this time it was down "several flights of stairs" and not out a window. Apparently people have gotten the message not to hang out near windows.

At first, I thought this might be related to the number of people trying to book flights out of country, but it appears that the MAI is a technical university, not an administrative entity.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-ally-dies-falling-down-stairs-day-russia-mobilization-1744944

So, it sounds like it’s a good idea to avoid both windows AND stairs. Maybe stick to single-story buildings. And it might be a good idea to stay away from bathrooms where the floor might be slippery and a person could conceivably fall and smack their head on the tile or accidentally drown in a toilet.

 

[afadeev]

The head of Moscow Aviation Institute died after a fall. Though this time it was down "several flights of stairs" and not out a window. Apparently people have gotten the message not to hang out near windows.

I can't wait to hear a Russian report blaming all this on the Evil Capitalist Gravity, manipulated by NATO and Israel.

So, it sounds like it’s a good idea to avoid both windows AND stairs. Maybe stick to single-story buildings. And it might be a good idea to stay away from bathrooms where the floor might be slippery and a person could conceivably fall and smack their head on the tile or accidentally drown in a toilet.

I would stay away from Russia altogether.
The entire country is massively accident prone as of late: slip and falls, smoking causing all sorts of detonations, accidental shootings.
When the war is over, they will really need to ditch KGB-lead government structure, and replace it with OSHA for a generation or two.

 

[Antares JS]

Been reading live updates on The Guardian. Apparently there are protests breaking out all over Russia and Google reported that interest in "how to break an arm" spiked massively in Russia.

 

[NOLA_BAR]

Been reading live updates on The Guardian. Apparently there are protests breaking out all over Russia and Google reported that interest in "how to break an arm" spiked massively in Russia.

I would think being a doctor in Russia just got a lot more lucrative.

 

[Antares JS]

I would think being a doctor in Russia just got a lot more lucrative.

Bribery is a way of life there, it's why dashcams are so prolific - so they have proof when cops are just there to shake them down. I imagine if you have some spare cash, you might not need to break an arm to get out of military service.

 

[boatgeek]

The entire country is massively accident prone as of late: slip and falls, smoking causing all sorts of detonations, accidental shootings.
When the war is over, they will really need to ditch KGB-lead government structure, and replace it with OSHA for a generation or two.

[thread drift] One of my favorite pet peeves in fantasy and sci fi movies is the total lack of regard for occupational safety. Why did the dwarves die out in Moria? It wasn't the Balrog, it was all of those 2-foot wide catwalks with no railings where one would fall to one's death! And how come the [pre-reboot] Enterprise crew don't have seat belts even though they get thrown out of their seats on a regular basis? Plus, install some circuit breakers, Starfleet!
[/thread drift]

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

[thread drift] One of my favorite pet peeves in fantasy and sci fi movies is the total lack of regard for occupational safety. Why did the dwarves die out in Moria? It wasn't the Balrog, it was all of those 2-foot wide catwalks with no railings where one would fall to one's death! And how come the [pre-reboot] Enterprise crew don't have seat belts even though they get thrown out of their seats on a regular basis? Plus, install some circuit breakers, Starfleet!
[/thread drift]

Don’t get me started on the Empire! Their starships have huge drops with no safety railings whatsoever. Their technology seems intentionally designed to have major safety hazards. Lots of control panels that can only be accessed by crawling out on a ledge. Maybe Putin will take note and ban railings — so much easier to push someone off an edge that way.

 

[NOLA_BAR]

Here is one way to discourage protesters!
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-warns-protesters-will-drafted-military-1744983?amp=1

 

[smstachwick]

[thread drift] One of my favorite pet peeves in fantasy and sci fi movies is the total lack of regard for occupational safety. Why did the dwarves die out in Moria? It wasn't the Balrog, it was all of those 2-foot wide catwalks with no railings where one would fall to one's death! And how come the [pre-reboot] Enterprise crew don't have seat belts even though they get thrown out of their seats on a regular basis? Plus, install some circuit breakers, Starfleet!
[/thread drift]

Don’t get me started on the Empire! Their starships have huge drops with no safety railings whatsoever. Their technology seems intentionally designed to have major safety hazards. Lots of control panels that can only be accessed by crawling out on a ledge. Maybe Putin will take note and ban railings — so much easier to push someone off an edge that way.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Putin’s speech included this nuclear threat. “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff.”

BS! That definitely IS a bluff!

Putin is losing in a big way, and this is a ploy to intimidate Ukraine and its allies. But Ukraine is obviously not intimidated, and we should not be either.