Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

[boatgeek]

If the target is the Patriot battery and the launch has been detected I would say the last part of the trajectory is very predictable.

I have this vision of the Patriot battery crew going out this morning with a Kinzhal stencil and some black spray paint.

 

[afadeev]

I wonder if the who has more missiles? Russia, or us?

WE know for sure who has more money and chips to build the new ones, and whose supply is running out with no replacements!

 

[Sooner Boomer]

[last night, 5/16] By my count, 20 missiles of some sort were fired in the video below.
from the web... "In an air defense response that lit up the night sky over Kyiv, Ukrainian officials say they downed all 18 missiles fired, including six Kh-47 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, nine Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles and three ground-launched missiles, as well as several drones. The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) meanwhile claimed that a Kinzhal struck one of two U.S.-provided MIM-104 Patriot missile systems in the latest attack against that air defense system."



Update from CNN - "A Patriot system was likely damaged but not destroyed by a Russian missile barrage Monday night, a US official tells @NatashaBertrand. US is still assessing the damage which to determine whether the system needs to be pulled back entirely or be repaired by the Ukrainians."

 

[afadeev]

If Ukrainians really managed to intercept all 18 incoming missiles (ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic) - that would be an absolutely remarkable achievement.
Regardless of the number and types of SAM batteries employed (Patriot and others) - totally astounding. Even if some of the SAM systems were damaged:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/patriot-missile-damage-ukraine/index.html
That would be a hell of a message to China, and will change their calculations on the cost and success rate of a planned Taiwan invasion!

 

[jderimig]

If Ukrainians really managed to intercept all 18 incoming missiles (ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic) - that would be an absolutely remarkable achievement.
Regardless of the number and types of SAM batteries employed (Patriot and others) - totally astounding. Even if some of the SAM systems were damaged:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/patriot-missile-damage-ukraine/index.html
That would be a hell of a message to China, and will change their calculations on the cost and success rate of a planned Taiwan invasion!

Taiwan is not Ukraine. The island factor is a huge difference.

 

[boatgeek]

Taiwan is not Ukraine. The island factor is a huge difference.

I agree, though I also agree that it's a good thing to give Beijing some hints that invading isn't a good idea at all. Amphibious landings were hard in WWII, and have only gotten harder in an era of man-portable antitank missiles with ranges of multiple kilometers. Even a couple of dozen Javelins would make a mess of a fleet of incoming landing craft.

 

[jderimig]

I agree, though I also agree that it's a good thing to give Beijing some hints that invading isn't a good idea at all. Amphibious landings were hard in WWII, and have only gotten harder in an era of man-portable antitank missiles with ranges of multiple kilometers. Even a couple of dozen Javelins would make a mess of a fleet of incoming landing craft.

The Chinese would be much more "impressed" if a regime change was the result in Russia more than the display of US military tech in my opinion.

 

[rocket_troy]

The Chinese would be much more "impressed" if a regime change was the result in Russia more than the display of US military tech in my opinion.

I just can't see that happening. With one finger effectively glued to the big red button combined with the tentacles of his vast & dense surveillance network, it would take unprecedented covert organization and laser precision execution to pull off (domestically). Things we don't typically associate with Russia.

TP

 

[NOLA_BAR]

Pretty good read on Patriot situation in Ukraine.

https://www.businessinsider.com/kin...n-russia-gunning-for-system-losses-2023-5?amp

 

[boatgeek]

The Chinese would be much more "impressed" if a regime change was the result in Russia more than the display of US military tech in my opinion.

Well, we'll see how long Putin lives. I doubt that Putin will survive long if Crimea is liberated. He could probably still stay on top of the heap if the Donbas is liberated, but he's put so much personal capital into Crimea that it's loss would be a major blow.

 

[afadeev]

Taiwan is not Ukraine. The island factor is a huge difference.

The Chinese would be much more "impressed" if a regime change was the result in Russia more than the display of US military tech in my opinion.

Taiwan has the same Western military tech as Ukraine is starting to deploy, and mostly the same Russian gear as is being obliviated in Ukraine.
If Patriot batteries can swat Russian/Chinese missiles with higher than expected success rate, including hypersonic ones, then they are more likely to survive and provide air cover for Taiwanese anti-ship missile batteries. Which would materially change the probability of those ships reaching Taiwanese shores.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-for-taiwan-to-upgrade-patriot-missile-system

The Chinese would be much more "impressed" if a regime change was the result in Russia more than the display of US military tech in my opinion.

I would say that's a bridge too far.
However, the longer Russia's failed invasion of Ukraine drags out, the more likely it is to destabilize Russian internal politics. Up to and including change in leadership.
Regime change can always go two ways - towards a more nationalistic / antagonistic attitude towards the Civilized World, as well as towards more reconciliatory government that parks Russian Imperial expansionist agenda, for a while. My money is on the former.

a

 

[jderimig]

Taiwan has the same Western military tech as Ukraine is starting to deploy, and mostly the same Russian gear as is being obliviated in Ukraine.
If Patriot batteries can swat Russian/Chinese missiles with higher than expected success rate, including hypersonic ones, then they are more likely to survive and provide air cover for Taiwanese anti-ship missile batteries. Which would materially change the probability of those ships reaching Taiwanese shores.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-for-taiwan-to-upgrade-patriot-missile-system

For how long? Chinese are patient. Taiwan would be very difficult to resupply without direct conflict of US and PLA forces.

 

[Peartree]

WE know for sure who has more money and chips to build the new ones, and whose supply is running out with no replacements!

And... they're using a $4 million missile to shoot down a $10 million missile.

 

[jderimig]

They are using a free missile to shout down a $10 million dollar missile.

 

[afadeev]

For how long? Chinese are patient. Taiwan would be very difficult to resupply without direct conflict of US and PLA forces.

Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan (the first step in an invasion) will absolutely succeed, unless US naval assets intervene. There is strategic ambiguity at to whether or not the US will intervene to assist Taiwan. If we don't, Taiwan is 100% toast.
If we do intervene and "unblock" naval supply lines, then Chinese navy will undergo a rapid unscheduled decommissioning of a significant portion of its fleet, with some degree of unhappiness expressed by Beijing towards the US. Likely by way of missile launches. That's where Patriot and other AA assets come into play in protecting military assets in Taiwan, Guam, and on the water.

As it is becoming evident that Patriot is a LOT more capable in intercepting hypersonic projectiles then previously advertised, it is very good news for Taiwan and the US, not so much for China. Because Patriots are protecting a very large and rapidly increasing quantity of Harpoons on the island, and on the water:
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...-face-china-threat-bloomberg-news-2023-04-17/

They are using a free missile to shout down a $10 million dollar missile.

Money alone can't buy Putin missiles in mother Russia:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-missiles.html
a

 

[teepot]

IIRC the Kinzha is only hypersonic during boost. After that it is continually slowing. It is supposed to be a maneuvering glide vehicle. Same thing with the Chinese hypersonic. Only during boost. The one we are working on is powered for the whole flight. Again IIRC.

Edit. I just saw a video on YouTube about Putin's missiles. They do have a powered air breathing hypersoinc missile. Called the Zircon. They are also working on a couple of ICBM's. He also has another glide vehicle. Forgot the name already.

 

[cwbullet]

IIRC the Kinzha is only hypersonic during boost. After that it is continually slowing. It is supposed to be a maneuvering glide vehicle. Same thing with the Chinese hypersonic. Only during boost. The one we are working on is powered for the whole flight. Again IIRC.

Edit. I just saw a video on YouTube about Putin's missiles. They do have a powered air breathing hypersoinc missile. Called the Zircon. They are also working on a couple of ICBM's. He also has another glide vehicle. Forgot the name already.

I think the missile could be intercepted in the "slow" phase. This might explain Ukraine's success at destroying them.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

It sounds like Biden is likely to give the OK for allies to provide F16s to Ukraine and to train Ukrainian pilots on their use.

Sorry if this is behind a paywall:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/19/world/europe/ukraine-f-16s-biden-russia.html

President Biden told U.S. allies on Friday that he would allow Ukrainian pilots to be trained on American-made F-16 fighter jets, several U.S. officials said, adding that the president is prepared to let other countries give F-16s to Ukraine — a major upgrade of the Ukrainian military and a sharp reversal.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine 15 months ago, officials in Kyiv have pleaded for advanced warplanes to overcome Russian air superiority. But Mr. Biden has resisted, concerned that the jets could be used to hit targets deep inside Russia, and prompt the Kremlin to escalate the conflict. Pentagon officials have said that other weapons, especially air defenses, were needed more urgently, and the high cost of the F-16s could squeeze out other matériel.

But several European countries that belong to the NATO alliance and have F-16s in their arsenals have called for an international effort to provide the training and transfer of their jets to Ukraine. Doing so would require American permission, because the weapons were first sold to them by the United States. Though not the most advanced U.S. fighter, the F-16 carries powerful radar that can spot targets from hundreds of miles away and modern missiles and other technology that American officials do not want duplicated or falling into hostile hands.

Mr. Biden told other leaders of the Group of 7 nations, the world’s wealthiest democracies, of his decision on pilot training, opening a path to supplying Ukraine with fighter jets, at their summit meeting in Hiroshima, Japan, according to several officials who requested anonymity to speak candidly about sensitive deliberations.

 

[Titan II]

It sounds like Biden is likely to give the OK for allies to provide F16s to Ukraine and to train Ukrainian pilots on their use.

Throwing more money away.

 

[CalebJ]

Throwing more money away.

We really need an eye roll reaction.

 

[rocket_troy]

According to Justin Bronk (and Google), the USAF have been using old/obsolete F16s for target practice, although he also stated F16s most likely would be unsuitable for Ukrainians from a strategic and operational perspective.
What surprised everyone (especially US top command) was how quickly the Ukrainians came up to speed on operating the handful of F16s they have been supplied. Ditto for SAMs - even the Patriot system. It seems as though completely new (foreign) complicated systems are no barrier to the Ukrainians - hats off!

TP

 

[jderimig]

Retired USAF pilot at work says F16's would splashed pretty easily if they got anywhere near Russian forces.

 

[rocket_troy]

Retired USAF pilot at work says F16's would splashed pretty easily if they got anywhere near Russian forces.

Yeah, probably true for anything pre-5th gen. However, altitude=range for missiles, so they wouldn't necessarily need to be within Russian range to have some use... Maybe...

TP

 

[cwbullet]

Throwing more money away.

Well, at least we will not have to store them in the dessert.

 

[smstachwick]

Well, at least we will not have to store them in the dessert.

That’d be pretty sticky and gross, I think. Not as tasty as it sounds either.

 

[Titan II]

Well, at least we will not have to store them in the dessert.

Dessert?

 

[teepot]

I do not consider it throwing money away to stop Putin from invading another country. I do not consider it throwing money away to stop Putin's army from committing war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and the kidnapping of children. If Putin isn't stopped he will erase Ukraine from the map, scatter it's people and raze the whole country to the ground. We are giving them stuff we won't use or weapons in excess of what we need. What we need will get built at the current cutting edge with lessons learned from this War. We and the rest of the Allies are giving Ukraine a fighting chance. We are helping David against Goliath. We are helping a country to maintain it's sovereignty. You want to see money wasted by the Government look at the Budget. There are agency's and Organizations that get tens of millions of dollars to do things that will make you laugh. Boondoggles and Pork.

 

[boatgeek]

Well, at least we will not have to store them in the dessert.

I do not consider it throwing money away to stop Putin from invading another country. I do not consider it throwing money away to stop Putin's army from committing war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and the kidnapping of children. If Putin isn't stopped he will erase Ukraine from the map, scatter it's people and raze the whole country to the ground. We are giving them stuff we won't use or weapons in excess of what we need. What we need will get built at the current cutting edge with lessons learned from this War. We and the rest of the Allies are giving Ukraine a fighting chance. We are helping David against Goliath. We are helping a country to maintain it's sovereignty. You want to see money wasted by the Government look at the Budget. There are agency's and Organizations that get tens of millions of dollars to do things that will make you laugh. Boondoggles and Pork.

Hear hear. Except for a few examples, what we are giving Ukraine is old stuff that was destined for the scrap heap. M113s (for example) might have a list price, but they haven’t been used in decades. The new stuff (GMLRS, Patriot for example) is getting a trial in combat that is absolutely invaluable If we’re ever in a war of our own.

You can bet that every arms manufacturer in the West is in Ukraine either making their products better or learning what new products they would put on the table. That’s worth an enormous amount even before you get to the very valid moral aspects.

 

[cwbullet]

Dessert?

Late typo. Desert

 

[boatgeek]

It appears that Bakhmut has finally fallen. It only took Russia a year and tens of thousands of dead soldiers to move 25 km up the road from Popasna. Wagner is purportedly pulling out almost immediately, leaving the Russian army to try to hold those gains. Of course, Prigozhin has said before that he’s leaving, so take that with a grain of salt.