Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

[kuririn]

Round obviously, like he said, has family connections to Russia and for my mind explains his point of view.

These aren't the rocketeers you're looking for.

You are easily fooled if you think that they would target TRF.

Someone is easily fooled, so you got that partially correct.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

We will never know for sure, it would be pure speculation, but how likely is it the US has covert special forces or CIA in Ukraine assisting its military with intelligence or other support?

100% likely.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

In the end, Russian firepower is probably going to overwhelm the Ukrainians, but this Russian army is crap! I don’t know very much about this stuff, but they seem incompetent to me.

 

[PhilC]

EU has no military capability "to deal with it", and that's not a funding problem. The US has had a policy of blocking creation of a pan-European army since the 70s, from Carter though Trump. Mostly because any such entity would compete for resources and authority with NATO:

The UK also opposes the idea of a European army for similar reasons. The UK sees NSTO as the keystone for the mutual defence of the West, and opposes the creation of competeing structures.
The background to the EU army comes from Franco-German politics. The EU has been struggling with an identity crisis since the Maastricht Treaty. Having decided on a single currency they’ve recongised that they need a central bank and the other trappings of government to manage the currency. France and Germany have been trying to morph the EU institutions into a federal government, while many nations are dragging their heels on this and some oppose it. Its no surprise that the federalists would also want their own foreign policy and army. The ‘Franco-German Brigade‘ is being pushed as the nucleus of this army but few nations have signed up to support it.

 

[rocket_troy]

Having decided on a single currency they’ve recongised that they need a central bank and the other trappings of government to manage the currency.

IIRC the European Central Bank was set up with the currency ie. you need a central bank to issue the currency. You pretty well, can't have a currency without one.

TP

 

[PhilC]

IIRC the European Central Bank was set up with the currency ie. you need a central bank to issue the currency. You pretty well, can't have a currency without one.

TP

The ECB was set up without effective mechanisms to interface with the national banks. I think that the lack of these political structures for the Euro has been its greatest weakness. In the context of my earlier post the Federalists in Europe see the creation of a European Government as the ‘best’ way to resolve the issue, and the weaknesses in the Euro offer a pretext for introducing quasi-governmental structures. Common foreign, defence and other policies would naturally result from the creation of these structures. There are merits to this, but I think it has to proceed at the pace of the slowest and may take a generation or two to achieve. France and Germany have been pushing this too quickly and the subsequent tensions contributed to Brexit. The eastern EU members, who have just shaken off the soviet yoke, are not keen to become subservient to new masters in Brussels.

 

[OverTheTop]

 

[NateB]

In the end, Russian firepower is probably going to overwhelm the Ukrainians, but this Russian army is crap! I don’t know very much about this stuff, but they seem incompetent to me.

Those are my first thoughts. Their army seems incompetent, unwilling or underfunded. Then when I see the released satellite images of the convoy slowly approaching Kyiv, I wonder if the first wave of Russian soldiers are just expendable and will be besieged along with the Ukrainian people.

 

[hball55]

Well, I can see that the censors are hard at work, deleting posts they don’t like. MJW you got your way. Too bad we can’t muzzle those in here with fascist tendencies, there’s quite a few of them. Round gave us his point of view; so what that we may not agree with him, but it’s always good to hear other points of view regardless. It is what fuels debates. What would this forum be like if we all agreed with each other . . . boring! This forum is becoming an echo chamber and certain members are just fine with it.

 

[PhilC]

Those are my first thoughts. Their army seems incompetent, unwilling or underfunded. Then when I see the released satellite images of the convoy slowly approaching Kyiv, I wonder if the first wave of Russian soldiers are just expendable and will be besieged along with the Ukrainian people.

There's still a high level of conscription in the Russian army which may account for the poor motivation of their troops.

 

[PhilC]

Well, I can see that the censors are hard at work, deleting posts they don’t like. MJW you got your way. Too bad we can’t muzzle those in here with fascist tendencies, there’s quite a few of them. Round gave us his point of view; so what that we may not agree with him, but it’s always good to hear other points of view regardless. It is what fuels debates. What would this forum be like if we all agreed with each other . . . boring! This forum is becoming an echo chamber and certain members are just fine with it.

At risk of being controversial, as a Brit I've been watching more and more American groups become echo chambers in recent years. IMO freedom of speech includes the right for all people to have their say, including those with whom I totally disagree.

 

[DAllen]

Dee Snider approves Ukrainians’ use of ‘We’re Not Gonna Take It’ amid Russian invasion

 

[GlueckAuf]

There's still a high level of conscription in the Russian army which may account for the poor motivation of their troops.

When we in the West boast of our qualitative edge in professionalism, equipment, and training, the Russian retort is always the same, and usually makes a pretty strong case for their approach—“Quantity has a quality all its own.”

 

[DAllen]

Some of you are getting the whole "freedom of speech" thing confused. This is a privately owned forum. Not public. TRF mods can delete any and all posts as they see fit since the constitution does not apply in that way here. Freedom of speech also means on a private message board on the internet they have the right to delete anything. Don't like it? Go elsewhere and start your own message board.

 

[jderimig]

You are easily fooled if you think that they would target TRF. Round obviously, like he said, has family connections to Russia and for my mind explains his point of view. He obviously knows much more than we do about the area and should be allowed his point of view despite what others may think. That is what free discussion is about, not shutting down opinions with which we disagree.

Apparently wrong or incorrect opinions must be blocked for all to not see. This fits in with Putin's or Xi's methods, but is not American. I wonder what TRF's TOS did Round's posts violate? I looked at the TOS and could not find any.

 

[kuririn]

In the end, Russian firepower is probably going to overwhelm the Ukrainians, but this Russian army is crap! I don’t know very much about this stuff, but they seem incompetent to me.

Take it with a grain of salt, but saw a posting of two captured Russian soldiers. caption said their vehicle ran out of gas so they walked into a Ukrainian police station (!) and asked for gasoline.
How idiotic is that?
Also reports that the soldiers aren't being told where they're going and most importantly, why.
Morale seems low, logistics are terrible (supplies of food and fuel not keeping up).

 

[jderimig]

Some of you are getting the whole "freedom of speech" thing confused. This is a privately owned forum. Not public. TRF mods can delete any and all posts as they see fit since the constitution does not apply in that way here. Freedom of speech also means on a private message board on the internet they have the right to delete anything. Don't like it? Go elsewhere and start your own message board.

You are 100 correct but I find it ironic that those here that lament or criticize Putin's and Xi's control or censorship of free opinion and discourse applaud it when it happens here.

 

[kuririn]

I wonder what TRF's TOS did Round's posts violate? I looked at the TOS and could not find any.

You are 100 correct but I find it ironic that those here that lament or criticize Putin's and Xi's control or censorship of free opinion and discourse applaud it when it happens here.

Read Putin's speech he gave justifying the invasion then read Round's post. Virtually a word for word rehash. Being a Russian psy op troll would be a rule violation.. If you can't see that then I just hope you're not active duty military.
If it walks like a duck.

 

[user 13]

Man, I can't keep up with this thread.
Then again, we might be witnessing the defining security challenge of the 21st century. So the interest is commensurate with the problem.



OK, that's what we are here to discuss.
The key to having a fruitful discussion is presenting evidence to justify a conclusion. I laid out my claim to why the Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a direct affront to US National interests. Kindly state your counter-argument.



Europeans are not in the business of defending American interests. Any more then the Japanese, or Chinese.
One might argue that we share many values with Europeans, but when the US National interests are being threatened and attacked by an opportunistic despot (Putin), it is in the US interests to respond. And respond with enough force to assure a favorable outcome. No half-measures.



EU has no military capability "to deal with it", and that's not a funding problem. The US has had a policy of blocking creation of a pan-European army since the 70s, from Carter though Trump. Mostly because any such entity would compete for resources and authority with NATO:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outl...-should-support-creation-european-union-army/


Me likey.
Just found this.
Mods, is it too much, or just right?

View attachment 507089



I see no value in tolerating and excusing 100% pro-Kremlin propaganda.
Please note that this is an international forum, and we are guaranteed to have a few folks here whose job it is to make pro-Kremlin posts, because that's what they are paid to do. They are not necessarily bad people (everyone has to make a living somehow), but that does not mean that the rest of us should all bend over and take it.

a

EU is just a convenient way of saying Europe. The member states DO have a military and this military works well
together as a semi cohesive entity.

The US national interests are worldwide, The most basic US national interest is freedom, peace, and commerce.
So yes the Ukraine is part of our national interest. I expect the US is supplying almost all the important intel and I expect/hope that US clandestine personnel are assisting the Ukraine in many ways.

However, If non Ukrainian military boots on the ground ( Not special opps types) are needed it needs to be European personnel. This is their back yard. Their interests should be to limit Putin's expansion and foster freedom.
Let them spend blood and treasure.

The Europeans seem to be making some progress. Money, fighter aircraft, weapons, and economic diplomacy are a good start. If some US NATO weapons make it to the Ukraine so much the better.

All this is, of course, my opinion. That and $4 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

As I said I respect your opinion, you have made a good argument. I just disagree. But I expect our views are closer
than either of us think.

EDIT:

This would be a great time to see how the Typhoon and Rafale fight against the Russian Su-27 and MiG-29's
It would be a good test of the A400 also.
Just sayin...

 

[kuririn]

This would be a great time to see how the Typhoon and Rafale fight against the Russian Su-27 and MiG-29's

US F-35s from Germany have been dispatched to bolster NATOs' eastern flank.
The Dutch have also added a couple of F-35s.
Ukraine has asked NATO to enforce a no fly zone but if they did we would have an all out war with Russia. Nevertheless it would be interesting to see how western fighters fare against Sukhois and MiGs. In particular F-22s and F-35s. I suspect our command and control is superior. It's not just about the aircraft.
F-22 Stealth Fighters: How NATO Could Enforce a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine? - 19FortyFive

 

[StreuB1]

They don't need F35's. All they need are A10's and F15's taking on anti-armor roles. F16's taking on SAM roles. Mobile Stinger platforms taking on helo and cruise missile roles. THAAD to take on SRBM's. Apache's to augment the anti-armor efforts of the A10/F15's as well as provide rapid standoff support.

Remove the air component and I think the Ukrainians can handle the rest.

 

[bwayne64]

I know it's a total pipe dream, but wouldn't it be nice if the world would rise as one, and demand the removal of all nuclear weapons. I know, I know, Pandora's box only opens, never closes. But if Putin didn't have 6000 plus nukes he never would have done this. The U.S and Nato would light him up like the 4th of July. Not just in Ukraine, but in Moscow. Of course you could imagine conventional wars all over the place, too I suppose. Oh well, I don't know what the future holds, but I know who holds the future. Prayers for the people of Ukraine and for the people of the world. : (

 

[user 13]

US F-35s from Germany have been dispatched to bolster NATOs' eastern flank.
The Dutch have also added a couple of F-35s.
Ukraine has asked NATO to enforce a no fly zone but if they did we would have an all out war with Russia. Nevertheless it would be interesting to see how western fighters fare against Sukhois and MiGs. In particular F-22s and F-35s. I suspect our command and control is superior. It's not just about the aircraft.
F-22 Stealth Fighters: How NATO Could Enforce a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine? - 19FortyFive

We have a pretty good idea how US 4th gen fighters stand against Russian 4th gen fighters.

I suspect the Rafale is a better pure air to air aircraft than the Typhoon, but I have no real expertise in that.

I suspect that if F-22's were used it would be VERY one sided, the F-35 will be a somewhat asymmetrical asset once the Air Forces flying them get some experience with how to best use them.

But I suspect a few F-15's, F-16s, and A-10s would do the job very well.

 

[Dotini]

We have a pretty good idea how US 4th gen fighters stand against Russian 4th gen fighters.

I suspect the Rafale is a better pure air to air aircraft than the Typhoon, but I have no real expertise in that.

I suspect that if F-22's were used it would be VERY one sided, the F-35 will be a somewhat asymmetrical asset once the Air Forces flying them get some experience with how to best use them.

But I suspect a few F-15's, F-16s, and A-10s would do the job very well.

If NATO attempted to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, that would probably be the ideal provocation to get Putin to use his nukes. He already strongly hinted this a few days ago.

 

[heada]

If NATO attempted to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, that would probably be the ideal provocation to get Putin to use his nukes. He already strongly hinted this a few days ago.

I think that is the only reason it hasn't been done days ago.

Ideally Ukraine would have set up things like no-fly zone and defensive systems (Patriot, CIWS, etc.) before the invasion because doing it afterwards is too late and it would have acted as a deterrent. I don't think selling those defensive systems to Ukraine would have been possible but a 10 year lease, where we maintain ownership, I think could have passed and if Ukraine joined NATO, then ownership could transfer. I'm sure Israel would have loved to lease out an IronDome as well.

 

[GlueckAuf]

Read Putin's speech he gave justifying the invasion then read Round's post. Virtually a word for word rehash. Being a Russian psy op troll would be a rule violation.. If you can't see that then I just hope you're not active duty military.
If it walks like a duck.

I prefer to let both the sages and simpletons here full freedom to argue intelligently or regurgitate the silly, simplistic talking points they embrace. If I disagree, I try to present them with objective, dispassionate documentation to the contrary, Then let the reader decide.

As long as they avoid personal attacks, threats, or offensive language, let them make us all more knowledgeable...or hang themselves with their own foolishness.

 

[boatgeek]

I've been online so many years I'll choose to believe Poe's law

Being familiar with @boatgeek , I do indeed firmly believe that that’s a jab at that viewpoint, not an expression of support for it.

Eeek. I should have thought that my post could have been interpreted as endorsing Friedman's argument, but I did intend it as satire. Poe's Law strikes again. I added a note to my post to clarify.

I'm not exactly surprised that Friedman himself didn't figure out that he was sabotaging his own article by explicitly comparing Putin to an abusive husband and then going on to blame NATO--he's so enamored of his own brilliance that I can see him missing it. What boggles my mind is that nobody else (successfully) intervened. Where were the editors?

 

[dhbarr]

Eeek. I should have thought that my post could have been interpreted as endorsing Friedman's argument, but I did intend it as satire. Poe's Law strikes again. I added a note to my post to clarify.

I'm not exactly surprised that Friedman himself didn't figure out that he was sabotaging his own article by explicitly comparing Putin to an abusive husband and then going on to blame NATO--he's so enamored of his own brilliance that I can see him missing it. What boggles my mind is that nobody else (successfully) intervened. Where were the editors?

I did read your post as satire-by-summary, FWIW.

 

[CalebJ]

Well, I can see that the censors are hard at work, deleting posts they don’t like. MJW you got your way. Too bad we can’t muzzle those in here with fascist tendencies, there’s quite a few of them. Round gave us his point of view; so what that we may not agree with him, but it’s always good to hear other points of view regardless. It is what fuels debates. What would this forum be like if we all agreed with each other . . . boring! This forum is becoming an echo chamber and certain members are just fine with it.

Opposing viewpoints are great and can foster all sorts of discussion and understanding.

Blatantly false information shared as truth is not the same thing.
Calling others fascists or any of the other things you've tossed out as insults are also not the same thing.

There's an ocean of difference between the moderators removing things that break the rules and your rights being trampled by 'those in here with fascist tendencies'.

 

[Matt_The_RocketMan]

Ok people, we are drifting away from the center point of the conversation... lets get back on track