Hard to say, several videos track the rocket close up so you can't see the whole flight path in relation to everything else very easily.
I don't remember it arcing over the crowd under power..., although it was overhead (above the parking area) when the parachutes depoloyed, which made some folks nervous....
I don't know how many videos are up now - of the several I've seen, it looks to me like the rocket clears the tower, which sways back and forth as the rocket leaves, and then the rocket continues straight up, well past the tower, for 18 seconds w/o arcing...
In this video - it appears to me the rocket probably arced during motor burn out....which is how I remembered it when watching it.
See this video, and tell me what you think:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lixC3CNiO4
The tower sways at 1:15 in this video...and I thought rails preventd rod whip - (LOL)
Post flight reports indicated the tower had moved up to 10 feet from its original anchored position...I would ask if you all think the tower could travel horizontally if it rocked enough times, just like when you rock a piece of furniture to help move it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4l2aFkZ_VM
As for rail guides catching....I think what you guys are refering to is what you can see at 1:06....(stop the tape and tell me what you see):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bj4lj6YSwzg
Think maybe that caused the tower sway as the rocket left and the tower released?