What exactly is this test flight supposed to prove?
That 1960’s technology still works?
Then we ask the $64,000,000,000 question. What is this going to be used for?
Hauling people up to the space station?
What’s the purpose of the space station?
To have some place for this thing to go?
If for one second I truly believed that NASA et all, actually had a realistic plan to return to the Moon and from there to Mars I might get excited by this but let’s face it folks; the next people to set foot on the Moon will most likely be speaking Chinese and that’s assuming they don’t loose interest or go broke first.
Well, in all fairness, this is an all-new capsule... with all new structures, systems, and in a lot of cases, materials and methods. The space program flew the same sort of unmanned test flights with all their new spacecraft, from Mercury, to Gemini, and then Apollo, prior to flying the things manned. The only exception to that was the first flight of the space shuttle, and that was because the thing was purposely designed to not be capable of autonomous, unmanned operation. Incidentally, the first flight of the shuttle was actually very lucky to come back intact and not kill the first crew. It's also good to see that they're making the effort to verify their spacecraft design in an unmanned test prior to committing lives to the operation of the thing... It's not a matter of "proving 60's technology still works". Orion has the largest heat shield ever constructed using the materials and design used... it shouldn't be assumed that everything is "okay" simply because its similar to the Apollo design.
What's it going to be used for?? That IS a good question, and one without a very satisfactory answer... One thing it WON'T be used for is carrying personnel to ISS... that ship has sailed, and it's considered "too expensive" to be used for ISS crew ferry, plus it wouldn't be ready (or have a sufficiently powerful booster) until ISS is ready for retirement anyway... ISS is, IMHO, mainly about giving NASA 'something to do'... the old saying "peeing in jars, looking at stars" comes to mind... that's basically what ISS is about...
I tend to agree with your assertions about "no realistic plan". I see that as one of the biggest problems with this whole operation. There isn't even another mission planned for Orion for another three years, and that one unmanned as well (EM-1)... then FOUR YEARS after that, the first manned Orion mission is scheduled... EM-2. NOTHING past that is planned, budgeted for, etc.
We're building a beyond Earth orbit capsule, but no upper stage capable of propelling it and a payload beyond Earth orbit. We're building the world's largest heavy lift rocket, but no payloads for it beyond the Orion capsule. Orion isn't designed to perform missions alone... it can do about as well as Apollo, perhaps two-weeks or maybe a tad more by itself, but it has NO amenities to make life aboard for the crew pleasant (the weight scrubs of Orion caused the galley and toilet to be stripped out-- so any crew performing a mission in Orion alone will be crapping in bags and eating out of toothpaste tubes, just like Apollo). Any "livability" or amenities are to be designed into the "mission module", whatever habitation module intended to accompany Orion on the mission. Problem is, there ARE no mission modules... NASA has been doing some mock-up work, but NOTHING is approved or budgeted... and NOTHING is being built. NO missions have been approved for Orion...
This is the most troubling aspect of the entire operation... Orion and SLS are going to be THE most expensive systems NASA has ever developed... and yet NOBODY seems to be able to offer a clearly stated reason for their existence, NO vital mission that Orion/SLS is essential for, nothing...
That's why I don't see this thing surviving long-term... maybe another political cycle, or two... but sooner or later, SOMETHING is gonna happen, some new bubble bursting, some big downturn, some new war, or the election of a new Administration or Congress that will either have bigger issues to deal with or who won't support it or be outright opposed to it, and that'll be that... Coupling the enormous cost of this thing with the low flight rates of one flight every 2-3 years or so, and I don't think it's going to garner enough public or political support to sustain it and prevent it from ending up being cancelled...
PLUS, NASA simply CANNOT afford to do any sort of exploration missions while still funding ISS operations. This has been noted both inside and outside NASA from MANY sources... so as long as ISS exists, Orion and SLS won't have the funding necessary to do any real missions of any consequence... maybe some sort of "stunts" (like lassoing an asteroid and dragging it back to cislunar space, or something like that) but that's about it...
Later! OL JR
