Thoughts on the middle east conflicts.

[Bravo52]

Schumer did have a tinge of "election interference" in his peacocking. I say a tinge, only because he called for "elections" instead of coming right out and saying overthrow the Netanyahu government of Israel. What Schumer is doing is straight up domestic politicking in this country by interfering in another country where he has little standing. Historically, it has not been Israel that has stood in the way of the possibility of a peaceful solution. In the case of the prevailing regimes supported by the palestinians, they have always walked away even as far back as 1937 (Peel Commision and Arab civil wars). That said, Israel hasn't been a pushover when it come to negotiations either. To this day, one side has always been "from the river to the sea" so that kind of adds a wrinkle to the willingness for peace not to mention the immorality of that notion.

"Killing Kings Doesn't Start Wars. It Ends Them."

 

[cvanc]

Sir I will disagree with one thing - Schumer is a lifelong friend and advocate of Israel. This gives his speaking out a different resonance, a different weight.

 

[Bravo52]

Sir I will disagree with one thing - Schumer is a lifelong friend and advocate of Israel. This gives his speaking out a different resonance, a different weight.

Exactly, that’s why his words equate to nothing more than a sound bite for Gen Zers. He eluded to as much in he opening monologue of; “I know Netanyahu, he’s a good man…but…” I don’t think his words will have any bearing at the end of the day. By most accounts, Gaza is winding down so time is running out to be impactful…plus it doesn’t help when the U.S. aid drop takes out 15 or so folk (5D/10I).

 

[jqavins]

"Killing Kings Doesn't Start Wars. It Ends Them."

Whom are you quoting? I have to say, it doesn't ring true with me; killing kings may do either or both, case by case.

plus it doesn’t help when the U.S. aid drop takes out 15 or so folk (5D/10I).

Yeah, that was tragic and stupid. Dropping crates is dumb, not only because it's dangerous, but also because it lets Hamas get to the crates an keep them. If you want to feed ordinary Palestinians, you dump loads of halal MREs loose, so they scatter. And various other necessities (e.g. medical supply kits) the same way.

 

[jderimig]

Exactly, that’s why his words equate to nothing more than a sound bite for Gen Zers. He eluded to as much in he opening monologue of; “I know Netanyahu, he’s a good man…but…” I don’t think his words will have any bearing at the end of the day. By most accounts, Gaza is winding down so time is running out to be impactful…plus it doesn’t help when the U.S. aid drop takes out 15 or so folk (5D/10I).

Senator Schumer's speech was meant for domestic consumption mostly to shore up the party's splitting base for November. Sterner messages from the admin have already been passed to the Israeli gov't. If the target was Israeli citizens then that is definitely meddling in their democracy. But he has a point.

 

[Bravo52]

Whom are you quoting? I have to say, it doesn't ring true with me; killing kings may do either or both, case by case.

Matt Graver from the movie Sicario. The quote likely had origines from the Old Testament. More modern would be from the Battle of Hastings to the ascension of King George V. These are just my thoughts...but, no, it came from a movie.

 

[John Kemker]

Whom are you quoting? I have to say, it doesn't ring true with me; killing kings may do either or both, case by case.

Good point. Gavrilo Princeps' act comes to mind. I know Archduke Ferdinand wasn't a king, but very close.

 

[boatgeek]

Senator Schumer's speech was meant for domestic consumption mostly to shore up the party's splitting base for November. Sterner messages from the admin have already been passed to the Israeli gov't. If the target was Israeli citizens then that is definitely meddling in their democracy. But he has a point.

It will be interesting to see if Israel does attempt to take Rafah and if they do, what our response is. Netanyahu had gotten away with tweaking US presidents for a long time.

 

[jderimig]

It will be interesting to see if Israel does attempt to take Rafah and if they do, what our response is. Netanyahu had gotten away with tweaking US presidents for a long time.

Supposedly Israel has a plan to evacuate civilians in advance of the Rafa invasion that will be shared with the US. I think that is a political maneuver by N which is a shrewd one. Either the US admin has to accept it or reject it publicly.

 

[boatgeek]

Supposedly Israel has a plan to evacuate civilians in advance of the Rafa invasion that will be shared with the US. I think that is a political maneuver by N which is a shrewd one. Either the US admin has to accept it or reject it publicly.

I expect that whatever happens, it won’t be a surprise to either side. I would expect that Israel has already shared the plan. On second thought, Schumer’s speech may have been intended to communicate displeasure with the plan. I think your theory is more likely though.

 

[shockie]

CNN is reporting that the we are going to respond to the tragic deaths and maiming of US service personnel with targeted attacks on Iranian personal at bases in Syria and Iraq in the future. Do you think the US will give the GPS coordinates of the targets to CNN ahead of time also?

Yeah? What's up with the Pentagon signalling to Iran what they would hit? Misformation? Disinformation?

The FEDGOV needs to get it's s**t together.

 

[shockie]

How do I really feel?
Caedite eos. Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius.

 

[Bravo52]

How do I really feel?
Caedite eos. Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius.

The latin roughly translated..."Kill them all and let God sort them out!"

 

[Peartree]

Yeah? What's up with the Pentagon signalling to Iran what they would hit? Misformation? Disinformation?

The FEDGOV needs to get it's s**t together.

It is impossible to craft an answer to that question in a way that doesn't cross the "politics" line.

 

[boatgeek]

Yeah? What's up with the Pentagon signalling to Iran what they would hit? Misformation? Disinformation?

The FEDGOV needs to get it's s**t together.

I didn’t object to the administration saying first that a response was coming and then that they had decided on a response. Saying what you plan to attack, even in general terms seems like a bad plan. Though it’s possible that it was useful to see who moves where after the announcement.

One ex-military YouTuber basically said that a) it wasn't a secret anyway because we had to coordinate with the Syrian air force, and b) our airborne intelligence assets were specifically watching to see what moved (knowing that they'd move their most valuable assets first), where it started, where it went, and possibly where their warehouses were. All of those being added to the current and future target list.

This was discussed pretty thoroughly after the message you quoted. These are two of the responses (that don't involve politics) on the general outlines of the response were given. Making it clear to the Iranians that we not only know where you were but also where you went afterwards will likely damp down their enthusiasm for a repeat. If I'm not mistaken, attacks on US troops have more or less stopped since our response in early February. So it seems to have worked.

 

[Bravo52]

From a military standpoint, it appears telling the enemy when an where you are going to strike is not tactical and more strategic. Meaning, there is nothing they can do about it even when they know it's coming. One of the downsides is it minimizes the material value of striking said targets. As Clausewitz said; "War is the continuation of politics by other means" and telling them adds to the "morality" favor of political conflict.

 

[jqavins]

U.S.: We'd like you to stop using this site to attack us.
Iran: Screw you!

BOOM BOOM BOOM ​

U.S.: OK, now we'd like you to stop using this site to attack us.

 

[shockie]

From a military standpoint, it appears telling the enemy when an where you are going to strike is not tactical and more strategic. Meaning, there is nothing they can do about it even when they know it's coming. One of the downsides is it minimizes the material value of striking said targets. As Clausewitz said; "War is the continuation of politics by other means" and telling them adds to the "morality" favor of political conflict.

They can run and hide in the hills while you're blowing stuff up.

It's the people that needs to be killed, not the stuff

I don't believe in morality in ear. The Russians,Chinese,Iran,North Korea don't care about collateral damage.

Why should we? Anybody remember WW2, were we firebombed civilians and then went nuclear on Japan?

Total War. Quit tying one hand behind your back.

We are going to f**k around and let Iran get nuclear weapons and they have literally hundreds of not thousands ballistic missiles

We should have nuked NK back in the 80's and Iran sooner than later.

Russia and China can sit back and allow their allies nuke us and they can stay out of it unscathed.

 

[Dotini]

There have been no updates in this thread for a while. Maybe some of the significant developments include:
- No definitive improvement in the military situation in Gaza.
- Broadly increasing concerns over the lives of aid workers and others in Gaza.
- Houthis continue threats to global commercial navigation causing expensive measures by one and all.
- Small Russian fleet enters Red Sea.
- Increasing skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israel along the northern border.
- Recent Israeli bombing with loss of life in Iranian embassy at Damascus. This could precipitate a like-for-like response from Iran.

 

[teepot]

There is a growing concern in the US and Israel of a retaliation from Iran. I'd be surprised if it wasn't something significant. Iran said today that Israeli Embassies are now fair targets.

 

[jqavins]

Since embassies are considered the sovereign territory of their countries, that's tantamount to a declaration of war. Which is no surprise after Israel struck the Iranian embassy in Syria. There just are no good guys there.

 

[jderimig]

Teheran successfully. Israel is very capable of attacking oil production facilities in Iran. It is time for the white house to fully support Israel, not meddle with their internal politics, and boldly counter the true opposition, namely Iran.

Which is why the Iranian revenge "response" will be somewhat measured (against Israel).

 

[PhilC]

Matt Graver from the movie Sicario. The quote likely had origines from the Old Testament. More modern would be from the Battle of Hastings to the ascension of King George V. These are just my thoughts...but, no, it came from a movie.

Unconvinced. It failed to stop any number of wars in Europe, for example executing Charles I failed to stop the English Civil War. It started many wars, for example executing Louis XVI was one of the triggers of the Napoleonic wars. Intermarriage was a far more successful way for ending European wars from post-Roman times up to about 1800.
It could be argued that Hastings restored the legitimate succession of William I after Harold Godwinson usurped the throne, so his death at Hastings ended the Saxon insurrection. I'm not quite sure where the accession of George V fits into this hypothesis so perhaps someone can explain.

 

[boatgeek]

The White House recently (always?) acts as a supplicant to Iran. In particular, their conveyed message was that the (successful) bombing in Damascus was carried out by Israel without the US being aware of it. Why is Biden kissing Iran's A--? The equivocal actions of Biden et al., as manifested in broadcasting the timing and location of retaliatory responses in advance only boldens Iran. Israel can finish the job if Biden didn't "micromanage" and attempt to make Israel a vassal state. The US military has already been attacked by Hisballah (sic), Iraqies, Syrians and the Houties. Isn't it time that the white house realize that the US forces have already been attacked by Iran. Israel in the past flew undetected F-35 jets over Teheran successfully. Israel is very capable of attacking oil production facilities in Iran. It is time for the white house to fully support Israel, not meddle with their internal politics, and boldly counter the true opposition, namely Iran.

Because there are rules. Among them that you don't get to bomb embassies or consulates. Even if there are military folks there. Part of the reason for that is that we don't want our embassies bombed. As for why we don't attack Iran? Well, it might have something to do with not wanting the Persian Gulf closed to oil shipping. In the modern era of man-portable guided missiles (eg Javelin), it is entirely possible to close the straits with small infantry forces that are very difficult to track or destroy prior to launch. Or maybe that Iran is better armed than Iraq, with a larger, more hostile population. Want to get thousands of American troops killed? Go ahead and invade Iran.

Also, this isn't Monopoly. Just because you invaded three countries in a row doesn't mean you get to build hotels.

IMHO, Israel really beefed it with both the World Central Kitchen attack and the Iranian Consulate bombing. The former turned the WCK, one of their more vocal allies and reliable food delivery agents, into an opponent (of the current regime), and the second opened Israel up to attacks on their embassies anywhere in the world.

 

[FMarvinS]

Because there are rules. Among them that you don't get to bomb embassies or consulates. Even if there are military folks there. Part of the reason for that is that we don't want our embassies bombed. As for why we don't attack Iran? Well, it might have something to do with not wanting the Persian Gulf closed to oil shipping. In the modern era of man-portable guided missiles (eg Javelin), it is entirely possible to close the straits with small infantry forces that are very difficult to track or destroy prior to launch. Or maybe that Iran is better armed than Iraq, with a larger, more hostile population. Want to get thousands of American troops killed? Go ahead and invade Iran.

Also, this isn't Monopoly. Just because you invaded three countries in a row doesn't mean you get to build hotels.

IMHO, Israel really beefed it with both the World Central Kitchen attack and the Iranian Consulate bombing. The former turned the WCK, one of their more vocal allies and reliable food delivery agents, into an opponent (of the current regime), and the second opened Israel up to attacks on their embassies anywhere in the world.

The Damascus attack hit an ancillary building of the embassy and not the consulate building. Further as per rules, several previous US embassies, particularly in Africa were bombed by Iranians or their proxies. Also, over 700 Iranian/Proxy based direct attacks against American troops have occurred since Oct 7 (). During the previous wars carried out in Iraq, Iranian training and technology were responsible for the deaths of and injuries to thousands of Americans via the use of IEDs. Thus, both directly and indirectly we have been at war with Iran. We don't have to invade Iran to deter their bellicose activities. Real iron-clad economic sanctions (as done under Trump) would be effective. In addition, already oil tankers have essentially stopped traversing the Red Sea due to current Houthi attacks. With appropriate economic sanctions, the Iranians could be compelled to cease Houthi activities.
With regards to Israel, the mistaken attack on the aid workers was awful and Israel (Prime Minister and President) rapidly ackowledged the unfortunate occurrence and fired military officials involved with the attack. In contrast, Biden mistakenly ordered a drone attack on an aid worker and his family in Kabul which led to the deaths of 9 individuals-mostly children. There was no international uproar. It took the Pentagon several weeks to state a "mea culpa." Biden was silent. Even at the the arrival of the coffins of 13 Americans killed at the Kabul airport, Biden was shown to have no empathy and was only concerned in looking at his watch! Obviously, Biden and the white house staff donot "practice what they preach." Israel is responding to an attack that mirrors the horrors of the holocaust. Their response overall has been ethical. When 911 occurred, no foreign or domestic source attempted to micromanage our response. But due to opposition by a small voting block in Michigan, Biden again acquiesces!

 

[boatgeek]

So... Biden is simultaneously a vicious warmonger and a lapdog. Huh.

You can't win a conflict with an air war. You need ground troops. Kosovo proved that.

Tankers can avoid the Red Sea by going the long way around. Tankers cannot avoid the Persian Gulf, at least not if they're taking exports from Iraq, Kuwait, or a significant fraction of Saudi Arabia's output. So your solution to the partial closure of a non-essential waterway is to guarantee closure of an essential waterway? Bold move, Cotton. Hopefully we won't see how that works out for you.

Oh, and tankers have not "essentially stopped" using the Red Sea. This is a current map of commercial ships. The red arrows are tankers underway. There are at least 30 tankers passing Yemen right now.

 

[NTP2]

So... Biden is simultaneously a vicious warmonger and a lapdog. Huh.

You can't win a conflict with an air war. You need ground troops. Kosovo proved that.

Tankers can avoid the Red Sea by going the long way around. Tankers cannot avoid the Persian Gulf, at least not if they're taking exports from Iraq, Kuwait, or a significant fraction of Saudi Arabia's output. So your solution to the partial closure of a non-essential waterway is to guarantee closure of an essential waterway? Bold move, Cotton. Hopefully we won't see how that works out for you.

Oh, and tankers have not "essentially stopped" using the Red Sea. This is a current map of commercial ships. The red arrows are tankers underway. There are at least 30 tankers passing Yemen right now.
View attachment 639439

What are the green ones?

 

[boatgeek]

What are the green ones?

https://help.marinetraffic.com/hc/en-us/articles/204062548-Live-Map

 

[FMarvinS]

It appears that my last post was deleted. So, I'll conclude that intefering in the internal politics of an allied country is dead wrong. Also, acquiescing to every 3rd rate regime not only empowers them but also terribly diminishes the international standing of the U.S.A.

 

[Dotini]

For some strange reason, Israel has pulled all its troops out of southern Gaza. What can this mean?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...roops-from-southern-gaza-for-tactical-reasons