Thoughts on the middle east conflicts.

[jderimig]

CNN is reporting that the we are going to respond to the tragic deaths and maiming of US service personnel with targeted attacks on Iranian personal at bases in Syria and Iraq in the future. Do you think the US will give the GPS coordinates of the targets to CNN ahead of time also?

 

[Hobie1dog]

They would be foolish to do so.

 

[NTP2]

This Is not going to go well…

 

[Antares JS]

"Only the dead have seen the end of war."

-George Santayana

 

[Marc_G]

Not sure I see the problem. This is how politicians signal.

 

[cvanc]

I like that we are taking our time to respond. Partly because I think it's a good strategy and partly because screw these guys, make 'em sweat for a bit.

I'm hoping to see attacks directly against Iran's ability to make money.

 

[Rocketjunkie]

The Middle East has been a war zone continually since before the time of the Bible. There is no solution short of the glass parking lot.

 

[Hobie1dog]

I watched several videos where some of the great current thinkers all say that our next war will be in Iran. Looks like they might be right.

 

[Banzai88]

They've been saying that since the Shah was deposed. All the late unpleasantness in the desert was just an attempt to forestall the inevitable.

Wish they had let us finish it when we were over there the first time. Pissed that the Vietnam era soldiers-turned-generals didn't let us win....and damned if I'll send my sons and daughters to die unless we intend to glass the place over and stripe it as a parking lot for Disney Middle East.

In that case, I'd gladly ride the bomb from altitude to detonation myself.

 

[cvanc]

Check the news, folks. We've begun.

 

[cvanc]

Who the H**l made that video?

Signed,
Watched it over & over, liked it better every time

Also signed,
'Dune 3 - The sleeper has awoken'

 

[Antares JS]

Who the H**l made that video?

Signed,
Watched it over & over, liked it better every time

Also signed,
'Dune 3 - The sleeper has awoken'

Habitual Linecrosser is in the US Army (though he is leaving soon) and specializes in missile defense. I highly recommend all the other videos on his channel. Wait until you meet Grandpa Buff!

Edit: For those new to the thread, the video I posted got taken down for having some f-bombs in it. You can find Habitual Linecrosser easily on YouTube though.

 

[smstachwick]

Habitual Linecrosser is in the US Army (though he is leaving soon) and specializes in missile defense. I highly recommend all the other videos on his channel. Wait until you meet Grandpa Buff!

I follow him. Bad accents and hilarious takes on world news.

 

[boatgeek]

I didn’t object to the administration saying first that a response was coming and then that they had decided on a response. Saying what you plan to attack, even in general terms seems like a bad plan. Though it’s possible that it was useful to see who moves where after the announcement.

 

[Steven]

On a lighter side a visit to the coffee shop sounds best while I Marlin observe from above.

 

[Dotini]

I suppose there are about 2500 US troops in Iraq. Will the current actions result in the Iraqi government asking these troops to leave?

 

[Hobie1dog]

I suppose there are about 2500 US troops in Iraq. Will the current actions result in the Iraqi government asking these troops to leave?

That would be a bad place to be.

 

[Peartree]

I didn’t object to the administration saying first that a response was coming and then that they had decided on a response. Saying what you plan to attack, even in general terms seems like a bad plan. Though it’s possible that it was useful to see who moves where after the announcement.

One ex-military YouTuber basically said that a) it wasn't a secret anyway because we had to coordinate with the Syrian air force, and b) our airborne intelligence assets were specifically watching to see what moved (knowing that they'd move their most valuable assets first), where it started, where it went, and possibly where their warehouses were. All of those being added to the current and future target list.

 

[Dotini]

A ray of hope emerges for a truce that begins to address the root cause.

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry announces that Hamas has given its “initial positive confirmation” to a proposed deal that would see hostages freed and fighting in Gaza stop for a period of time.

It says Israel has agreed to the proposal, confirming reports that Jerusalem okayed the deal at negotiations in Paris on Sunday.

“The meeting in Paris succeeded in consolidating the proposals… That proposal has been approved by the Israeli side and now we have an initial positive confirmation from the Hamas side,” Majed al-Ansari said referring to meetings between Qatari, US, Israeli and Egyptian officials in the French capital.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveb...ial-hamas-approval-of-ceasefire-hostage-deal/

 

[Dotini]

One ex-military YouTuber basically said that a) it wasn't a secret anyway because we had to coordinate with the Syrian air force

That is an interesting suggestion. It would be good to know if it were at all true.

There have been new allegations that Syrian army troops fighting ISIS elements as well as Syrian civilians were killed in the strikes.

 

[boatgeek]

I suppose there are about 2500 US troops in Iraq. Will the current actions result in the Iraqi government asking these troops to leave?

Iraq is already encouraging us out the door, as is their right. We're in the middle of negotiating an exit agreement for our troops to leave Iraq.

 

[NTP2]

I suppose there are about 2500 US troops in Iraq. Will the current actions result in the Iraqi government asking these troops to leave?

I think the important word here is “2500 US troops” they aren’t leaving unless they want to.

 

[boatgeek]

I think the important word here is “2500 US troops” they aren’t leaving unless they want to.

We are presently in Iraq at the invitation and with the agreement of the Iraqi government. As a sovereign nation, they can tell us to leave at any time, though there is some disagreement about who exactly in the Iraqi government can tell us to leave. Those negotiations are underway.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2020/01/can-iraq-evict-us-forces.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...us-forces-no-deadline-set-pm-says-2024-01-10/
While it is strictly speaking true that Iraq likely couldn't evict US forces by military force, we also don't want to get into another shooting war in Iraq. There's little point in making ourselves a target if we're not wanted.

 

[Peartree]

That is an interesting suggestion. It would be good to know if it were at all true.

There have been new allegations that Syrian army troops fighting ISIS elements as well as Syrian civilians were killed in the strikes.

As I reread what I wrote, it may have been the Jordanian air force rather than the Syrian air force.

Yup. I checked, it was the Jordanians.

Here's the (short) explanation I was talking about:

 

[NTP2]

We are presently in Iraq at the invitation and with the agreement of the Iraqi government. As a sovereign nation, they can tell us to leave at any time, though there is some disagreement about who exactly in the Iraqi government can tell us to leave. Those negotiations are underway.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2020/01/can-iraq-evict-us-forces.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...us-forces-no-deadline-set-pm-says-2024-01-10/
While it is strictly speaking true that Iraq likely couldn't evict US forces by military force, we also don't want to get into another shooting war in Iraq. There's little point in making ourselves a target if we're not wanted.

I was not saying we would not leave, just that we could stay if we wanted to.

 

[smstachwick]

I didn’t object to the administration saying first that a response was coming and then that they had decided on a response. Saying what you plan to attack, even in general terms seems like a bad plan. Though it’s possible that it was useful to see who moves where after the announcement.

I don’t see much downside if there isn’t f- all they can do about it.

 

[Dotini]

No let up in deadly proxy attack on US base in Syria:

 

[Hobie1dog]

We really do need to vacate the Middle East completely, we got no business being over there. They've been fighting religious-based wars for centuries and they will never stop.

 

[teepot]

If you think it's bad now it would be worse if we left. Iran would eventually control the whole Middle East. The moderate countries, like Jordan and some of the Gulf States would be in for a rough time. Israel's existence would be in serious jeopardy. Iran already has a foothold in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Today the UN representative admitted that they had been funding, training and providing help to Hamas. Iran has stated to many times to count that they want to destroy Israel. Without the US as a buffer that entire region would descend into the Abyss. The Iranian backed Houthi are causing a global economic crisis. From recent reports Iran is very close to becoming a nuclear power. Other than Israel no one else has nuclear weapons. The Iranians would threaten and blackmail every other country in the region. The Iranians are Persians. The Palestinians are Arabs and the Iranians only tolerate them. I doubt they would care if they went up in a nuclear fireball if it meant the end of Israel. Once Iran has consolidated control over the Middle East do you think they'll stop there. Of course not. Turkey would get involved. Then Article 5 gets invoked and we really will have WWIII. We can't just stick our collective heads in the sand and hope everything will get better.

 

[Antares JS]

As much as I would like to withdraw from the middle east, @teepot has summarized the unfortunate reality. Globalization has resulted in a world where one country's bad actions can negatively impact the entire world, and it's best to get things under control before they really explode.

My big gripe is that the US shouldn't have to be the only "world policeman." One thing that Trump got right was pressuring the rest of NATO to increase their contributions to the alliance.