As explained to my by the flier, it seems a few things happened that prevented this from being a safer launch than what it was. He is a very good friend and I trust 100% what this he tells me, and yes, as David said the result disturbed him quite a bit. As they say, hind sight is 20/20 so it was good for him to discuss this. So the same should be true here.
My first thought, which he agrees with is that the 1st stage did not have enough thrust to get the rocket moving fast enough for the fins to provide stability. You can see the yellow tape blowing in the wind and when launched, the rocket seems to instantly weather cock and never recovers. The motor was old, and was probably a little over rated to begin with. I think it just didn't have enough oomph off the pad. Had it been a J500+, the fins might have done their job as they were designed.
His simulations said it was stable and did not indicate any real problems. I'm talking numerous simulations here too. This guy in general is a data guru. Even still he didn't trust their results. However, and this is where it goes down hill, most all of the people he spoke with about it were able to convince him to trust the simulations and in the end, not trust his gut.
We all want to see a cool flight like a 2 stage, but when the concern of safety takes a back seat to seeing something cool, our minds need to be re-programed. I understand peer pressure and as ridiculously smart as my friend is, he is not perfect. The atmosphere you are in when attending a rocket launch needs to be one of being safety consciousness with a vigilance. I'm not advocating you be a safety nazi, but it needs to lead your decisions as well as your recommendations to others on what they should do when they ask you your advice. If you're telling someone they should fly something because it would be cool to see, without first qualifying it as being a safe flight, you need to re-program.
So he was convinced to fly it. He brought his simulations up to the RSO, got his signature and he "the flier" marked it as a "heads up" flight. He fully intended to take it out to the far pads, however when he went out to the pads, the pad manager on duty instructed him to put it on the closer set of pads so it could be seen better. (yes, this is what he told me the individual said) I was told he didn't continue out to the far pads because it didn't seem like there was a choice in the matter. That's where he made yet another mistake IMO.
Lessons learned....he agrees, in the future, it is his rocket, his decision and his responsibility alone on whether to fly and where to fly it from. If somebody doesn't let you fly it from where you think it can be safely flown from, it is also your decision NOT to fly it.
Lastly, it gets launched. As the video above shows, there is a quick announcement of the flight, at the end of which is stated "head's up flight". This is immediately followed by the count down. 5 seconds after the words "head's up flight" are announced, the rocket is leaving the pad.
Marking the box "Head's Up Flight" is the fliers way of letting everyone know that they as a flier have a safety concern about some aspect of the flight. It is also the last "safety check" of sorts before the button is pushed. All too often we treat this announcement with a lack of respect. However, the more importance the LSO puts on those words just prior to flight, the more aware and conscious those attending the event will be about what is to happen next. The "norm" I think is that when heads up is called prior to a flight, everyone is asked to get out of their chair, stand up and look out at the rocket being launched. At least that's what I am use to. IMO, at the very minimum, "heads up flight" should be announced at both the beginning and the end of a flight announcement in order to give everyone enough time to stop what they are doing and pay attention.
It only takes one bad thing to ruin your day. At Airfest this year I had a ~54mm rocket nearly puncture my brand new canopy. At the MWP 3 night launch, I had a 4" diameter rocket on a I-300 come in ballistic about 3-4 feet from the drivers side rear door of my car. There had been a car backed in next to be about 10-15 seconds prior to that. He was less than 100 feet away when it hit the ground. It impacted right about where the drivers seat would have been on his SUV. I want to say his name was Bill Bertoldi. He does rockets for schools or something like that I believe. After I showed him the large hole in the ground the next morning and told him when it happened, he was a bit shaken. The last I spoke with him a few years later, he said that was why he no longer attends night launches.
My point in telling the above, is that these were a few examples of close calls that directly involved me. However there are many of us that these things have happened to. Tim Dixon's 2nd stage on pad ignition comes to mind. It happened strait out in front of me and scared the crap out of me cause I thought he got hurt at first. I'm pretty sure Tim went back and changed his pants. These things change us, and change how we act, as they should. They need to be talked about and learned from if at all possible. Even if it upsets and ruffles a few feathers, I'd take that any day over seeing the same thing happen twice and perhaps seeing someone get hurt the next time around.
I know I have ruffled my share of feathers over different safety issues with this club before. I do apologize if I have ever offended, rubbed someone the wrong way, or just plain ticked you off. I would only ask that you put yourself in my shoes for a moment. I depend on the safe continuation of this hobby activity for my sole income and complete livelihood. I don't have a retirement fund pension or government contracts to keep me happy. YOU participating in this hobby is what keeps me happy. To see people use poor judgement on safety issues or the complete lack there of on anything that could jeopardize an entire club, a field, a waiver or the entire sport of flying in general is seen by me as a threat to my livelihood. I don't take kindly to threats and my general politeness tends to go out the window. Do things correctly and be safe to yourself and those around you and I'm a very pleasant person to be around.
The way every person acts from a flier, to a Prefect, to a LSO or a pad manager, your actions directly influence and affect those around you. If you think and act safety first, those around you will be more likely to do the same. However, if you think and act to be cool, show off, act wild and reckless, it will also affect those around you in the same manner. When it come to launching fast pointy things high in the air, the former generally has positive results, the latter generally has negative results. Please keep that in mind.