Coronavirus: What questions do you have?

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kuririn

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Any opinion on the German vaccine failing its' trial at less than 50% efficacy? The manufacturer says that the multitude of variants in the trial undermined the results.
 

Marc_G

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Sure: I think there is a meeting of regulatory agencies tomorrow re: the cardiac inflammation in young men from the J&J vaccine.

What can we expect to hear, based on I think only one death due to this, and how can it be messaged properly. Many people I hear from are freaking out about the situation , and I try to tell them to remain calm, that vaccinations do cause inflammation at times, and this one is being studied intensively to see if there are ways to narrow down the risk profile.

Would love to hear your thoughts.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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Chuck, I have a question about vaccine effectiveness statistics and how the effectiveness for a total population relates to how well a given vaccinated individual is protected.

If a vaccine is 90% effective against infection, then my understanding is that the number of infections for a population of vaccinated people is reduced by 90% compared to a same population of unvaccinated people under the same circumstances.

How does that translate on the individual level? Does it mean that every vaccinated individual develops an immune response that makes them 90% less likely to actually catch covid from a given exposure? Or does it mean that 90% of individuals who get the vaccine are around 100% safe from infection, but in 10% of people the vaccine doesn’t “take”, and they aren’t really any more protected after the vaccine than they were before?

Basically, are 100% of vaccinated people 90% protected, or are 90% of people 100% protected? I’m sure it’s probably some combination of the two, with virtually everyone getting some benefit but some people benefitting less than others, but what is it more like?
 

Rocketjunkie

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The FDA has given the vaccines provisional approval. This was to help prevent deaths. They have not gotten through the full set of clinical trials yet. However, they have proven very safe. The worst effect is the clotting and this only occurs in 1.9 per million vaccinations. Since COVID kills 10-20 THOUSAND per million cases I went ahead and got vaccinated.
 

Cl(VII)

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Any opinion on the German vaccine failing its' trial at less than 50% efficacy? The manufacturer says that the multitude of variants in the trial undermined the results.
I don't believe the variant argument stands up to what we are seeing among the vaccinated population. I think the more likely issue is that the CureVac mRNA molecules are inherently less stable than the Pfizer/BioNtech or Moderna vaccines. Without getting too wonky, the CureVac vaccine uses only the naturally occurring mRNA bases, where as the other two employ some modified bases that biologically mimic the natural bases, but impart a higher degree of stability to the mRNA molecules (they are still readily subject to degradation in the body, just not as much so). Basically, the CureVac mRNA sequences are probably getting degraded too quickly.
 

cwbullet

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Chuck, I am curious if there have been any deaths reported caused purely due to COVID in a vaxxed individual? My apologies if it's been posted before.
I pulled a report. I have no seen any but nations wide, there might be some. The vaccine results in a 93-95% reduction in admissions and serious infections. I have not seen a single death, intubation, or admission in vaccinated patients.
 

kuririn

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Is long Covid commonplace or rare? Trying to get a handle on the full impact of the disease.
 

cwbullet

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Is long Covid commonplace or rare? Trying to get a handle on the full impact of the disease.
It depends on what you mean by rare. We suspect it is tied to activating of Ebstein Barr Virus. A lot of folks say they have it, but we do not have criteria that are solid to diagnose it.
 

cwbullet

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drgarymartinez

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10 years ago, after 9 vocal chord surgeries, my ENT tried a vaccine -deafardeer- and the papilloma was arrested. No more reoccurrences. After getting COVID-19 in Nov of 2020, followed up by the 2 shot vaccine, it came back with a vengeance. My ENT said he has seen several cases of viruses returning after the vaccine. Just under went my vocal chord surgery and have had the deafardeer (not sure of spelling) injected again. Hoping and praying this works. Thoughts regarding the COVID vaccine’s impact on the immune system?
 

boatgeek

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Chuck, I am curious if there have been any deaths reported caused purely due to COVID in a vaxxed individual? My apologies if it's been posted before.
I just saw an article in the paper that said that of the 18K US COVID deaths in May, 150 were fully vaccinated. I don't have any more than that, so I don't know if those 150 had other underlying conditions (probably yes).

[edited a few minutes after posting to correct the total deaths in May]
 

cwbullet

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I just saw an article in the paper that said that of the 18K US COVID deaths in May, 150 were fully vaccinated. I don't have any more than that, so I don't know if those 150 had other underlying conditions (probably yes).

[edited a few minutes after posting to correct the total deaths in May]
That is a safe assumption. Nearly all deaths have an underlying health condition.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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I just saw an article in the paper that said that of the 18K US COVID deaths in May, 150 were fully vaccinated. I don't have any more than that, so I don't know if those 150 had other underlying conditions (probably yes).

[edited a few minutes after posting to correct the total deaths in May]
That’s interesting — less than 1% of those who died were vaccinated. I tend to say that “everyone” who is in the hospital or dying of covid right now is suffering from something that was preventable. If they had gotten vaccinated, they could have avoided it. But maybe instead of “everyone”, I should say “99%”. Or is 99% close enough, I can still just say “everyone”. Hmm…

Of course, if everyone were vaccinated and anyone died of covid, then you would have someone say, “100% of the people dying of covid have been vaccinated!” Even if that number of deaths were 1. That’s a form of lying with statistics that seems to be very popular.

I wonder what percentage of the total population were vaccinated during that May period. If it were a third and then the other two thirds were to be vaccinated, I’d be happy to see the number of deaths of vaccinated people triple in exchange for the unvaccinated number being eliminated. Instead of 18,000 unvaccinated and 150 vaccinated dying, have 0 unvaccinated and 450 vaccinated. That would be a good trade, but of course, the numbers would be even better than that because the virus would not be circulating. The numbers would be 0 and 0.
 

rharshberger

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That’s a form of lying with statistics that seems to be very popular.
One of my sisters favorite quotes "Figures lie and liars figure" she is a Statistician and Mathematics double major graduate. She has always said take all Statistics that you didn't compile yourself with a grain of salt, since what the numbers can say depends on what the group presenting them wants you to hear.
 

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One of my sisters favorite quotes "Figures lie and liars figure" she is a Statistician and Mathematics double major graduate. She has always said take all Statistics that you didn't compile yourself with a grain of salt, since what the numbers can say depends on what the group presenting them wants you to hear.
You have to be carefull when reading data. It is easy to misread stats
 

boatgeek

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One of my sisters favorite quotes "Figures lie and liars figure" she is a Statistician and Mathematics double major graduate. She has always said take all Statistics that you didn't compile yourself with a grain of salt, since what the numbers can say depends on what the group presenting them wants you to hear.
Never trust anyone who uses the phrase “we’ll see where the data takes us.”
 

Marc_G

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@cwbullet New question:

Have you seen any longitudinal studies looking at case rates in different age cohorts, say weekly tallies, that demonstrate that X weeks after vaccinations started in (let's just say) 70+, we see the #cases per week in a state start dropping, but the younger cohorts mostly staying stable, then when (again, for example) 65+ opened up for vaccinations, we then see that age cohort start to drop # cases per week, and so on as the age limit dropped over time?

I'm in a discussion with someone I will never convince, but others are watching... I'd love to be able to have a line graph showing the correlation of the initiation of vaccination and the drop in case rate in that cohort.
 

fyrwrxz

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Hey CW! Seriously need to know what treatments are being used for long haul covid symptoms.
 

cwbullet

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Hey CW! Seriously need to know what treatments are being used for long haul covid symptoms.
Not a whole lot out there, but give me a few weeks and I will see what I can find in our labs.
 

cwbullet

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@cwbullet New question:

Have you seen any longitudinal studies looking at case rates in different age cohorts, say weekly tallies, that demonstrate that X weeks after vaccinations started in (let's just say) 70+, we see the #cases per week in a state start dropping, but the younger cohorts mostly staying stable, then when (again, for example) 65+ opened up for vaccinations, we then see that age cohort start to drop # cases per week, and so on as the age limit dropped over time?

I'm in a discussion with someone I will never convince, but others are watching... I'd love to be able to have a line graph showing the correlation of the initiation of vaccination and the drop in case rate in that cohort.
I think I have seen this. i will bounce this off my ID and epidemiologist and get back to you.
 

rocketsaway

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Chuck, what are you hearing about getting a second booster dose, for people that got the 1-shot ?
I was vaccinated w/ J&J 1 shot in March and have been reading article blubs on getting a second dose, especially if its was J&J or Astrazeneca.
I figured, like the flu shot, I would be getting another shot in Sept-Oct., anyways
Heres 1 article, MedRxiv. Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the B.1.617.2 variant
and another-Neutralizing antibody levels are highly predictive of immune protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection
(I dont understand all of it until the point about efficiency being lower at 250d)

I found this comment from above links by Michael Z. Lin, MD, PhD, Stanford, referring to the Delta variant.
"The 40% expected breakthrough in J&J recipients exposed to Delta is a big contrast to the 12% expected for RNA recipients. And recall J&J recipients can and should be going about their daily business the same as RNA recipients, e.g. dining in restaurants "
 
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cwbullet

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Chuck, what are you hearing about getting a second booster dose, for people that got the 1-shot ?
I am hearing that J&J will send up with a similar booster schedule. The coverage is similar although slightly inferior (I had to use that term). Please do not let that make you think it is not a good vaccination. It is great and prevents deaths and hospitalizations.

I suspect there will be a fall to winter booster. The big question is whether it will be the same vaccine or modified for the variants. Will they cross-vaccinate Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J? The studies and research are coming near an end with info to be released soon.
 

Marc_G

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I think I have seen this. i will bounce this off my ID and epidemiologist and get back to you.
Gentle ping on this just to keep it on the radar.

Also, new(ish) question:

Are there any good resources discussing extent of known cases of Covid, suspected extrapolated infections, and the overlap with vaccination demographics?

So, we know of about 34 Million US cases. How many infections do we currently think there have been? In the old days at the start, infections were like 10:1 over cases. Do we have a model of historical cases versus infections since the start of this? So, there are 34 M cases and suspected XXX M infections total.

And current estimates: There are currently ~13k new infections each day and we think there are YY k new infections each day.

If the pool of infected folks that have some level of natural immunity is more like 100M rather than the known 34M cases that would be interesting data, also how do we think it meshes with the vaccination demographics...

Thanks Chuck!
 

cwbullet

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Gentle ping on this just to keep it on the radar.

Also, new(ish) question:

Are there any good resources discussing extent of known cases of Covid, suspected extrapolated infections, and the overlap with vaccination demographics?

So, we know of about 34 Million US cases. How many infections do we currently think there have been? In the old days at the start, infections were like 10:1 over cases. Do we have a model of historical cases versus infections since the start of this? So, there are 34 M cases and suspected XXX M infections total.

And current estimates: There are currently ~13k new infections each day and we think there are YY k new infections each day.

If the pool of infected folks that have some level of natural immunity is more like 100M rather than the known 34M cases that would be interesting data, also how do we think it meshes with the vaccination demographics...

Thanks Chuck!
I thought I responded to this. The epidemiologists have not found anything, yet.

Currently, there has not been a large nationwide epidemiology study to date. We have no idea how many have many people in US have been infected because a good study had yet to be completed. The problem with infection rates is we have limited ability to estimate the length of protection from a live infection.
 
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