Vendors in decline?

[les]

Do we need to start worrying?

Are some of our favorite vendors having issues due to a decline in our buying?

Yes - a lot of us went into a feeding frenzy with the sale that Estes just concluded. And a lot of us took advantage of the various Black Friday/Saturday sales. But are we buying if it is not on sale?

Some examples I've seen that have me concerned...

Shrox indicated sales were slow related to his new kits and may only offer plan packs as he doesn't have the capital to buy parts to offer new kits

Fliskits also indicated sales have been off making it difficult to invest in new kits. Their 11th anniversary kit, the K'TNG'A that was announced in September still is not available to buy

Semroc has 18% of their kits back ordered. And some kits (like the Saturn 1B) have evaporated from their lineup completely. Is Sheryl struggling to keep Semroc going with the loss of Carl?

Do we need to be concerned with the potential total loss of some of our great vendors?
Or is this just a temporary slow down and I am just over reacting? :confused2:

Thoughts? Comments?

 

[hball55]

I heard it was cell towers that was messing with their homing instinct so they can't seem to find their way to launches.

Yes, it's about bees and it has as much relevance to the subject as thinking that we aren't buying enough kits to keep vendors in business. Business is subject to cycles and strong business models will survive where weaker ones won't.

So, our buying habits, the Government, or even cell towers will only have as much effect as the individual vendor allows (based on their business model).

So, if you're an adherent to "the sky is falling" thinking, by all means buy as many kits as you can from any vendor you deem is on the verge of insolvency. Not sure it'll work, but at least you'll feel good doing it.

 

[RoyAtl]

I heard it was cell towers that was messing with their homing instinct so they can't seem to find their way to launches.

Did you possibly reply to the wrong thread?

 

[Zonie]

Probably a reference about Bee Colonies being in decline...

Did you possibly reply to the wrong thread?

 

[shrox]

I think so. It's going to shrink down to about 60% of it's current numbers, and it's going to become almost an underground hobby. Sad.

 

[fyrwrxz]

IMHO, hobbies (or handicrafts, if you will) are generally on the downswing. Witness the absolute desolation of brick and mortar hobby shops in the last ten years. You can blame that on whatever you will-economy, video games, single parent households, short attention spans, food additives or whatever, but the fact remains that we have lost the 'golden era' of hobbies as a mainstream diversion. It's enlightening to observe more sedentary hobbies are popular in the mid-west and eastern regions where weather plays a big part. I've also noticed that a lot of skills are not being handed down, i.e. Dad/Mom doesn't do it, so no role model. I('ve been tempted several times in my life to open a hobby store, going so far as to apply and get accepted to a pretty exclusive Entrepreneur's Workshop-based on an in depth business model with hard facts and surveys completed by a target audience. It was a full year of eye-opening schooling by some of the best local businessmen, bankers and marketing folks you cold ever meet. The 80k startup prevented me from filing bankruptcy early in my retirement. Regulations have also gotten out of hand and certainly with our sport, more restrictions have applied. Most of the folks I know in this rocket business have a passion and are driven by that. This often means a second 'real' job they can count on to pull them thru the lean times or at least fund the supplies they need to produce product. Profit margins are thin and the dedication to promote your business is way over any reasonable ROI. Yeah- I shop for bargains-who doesn't? But I also spread my dollars to the vendors who support our hobby at the launch site level as well as on-line. In 40 years, I've seen some pretty robust companies come and go. I can only hope the current crop we have continues on and we can all enjoy the fruits and creativity of the chaps that keep us in the air.

 

[shrox]

I'd just like to design and not worry about the kits themselves.

 

[belfert]

The local rocket club has grown from 40 to over 60 members in the past two years. Spending on motors appears to have increased as the economy has improved. Our local vendor seems to be doing pretty well, but I haven't asked him specifically.

Consumers are conditioned to expect sales all the time these days. Sales only excite me if the final price is a real savings over the typical price. Sales like they have at Kohl's where everything is priced sky high with constant sales don't excite me.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

My theory on the Estes sale is not that it is a harbinger of doom. I think they probably just wanted to lower inventory and get some money in the bank before year end, so they had a big sale.

 

[paul.nortness]

The biggest thread to hobbies in general is video games.

Why sit at a desk for a weekend building a F-16 when you can just insert a disk and grab the controller and fly one? Why go through the hassle of building a rocket, going outside to launch it when you could just sit on your couch and launch one on your X Box?

 

[jadebox]

Without going into too much detail, our sales have been steadily rising each year both online and onsite. Since new competitors have arrived during that time, I am sure that it is mostly due to growth of the market.

I think the new owners of Estes boosted interest in rocketry with the introduction of larger rockets and new products like their altimeter - and, yes, even ARF pink crayon rockets.

The unavailability of some popular Semroc kits and Estes dumping so many kits might slow that trend a little in the short term, but not much. Hardcore hobbiests, like the one's here are not the majority of our customers. So, most customers are not looking for a specific kit and most probably were not aware of the sale.

If the rumors are true about Estes getting back into Walmart (or another big retailer - I saw a lonely boxed kit in the toy section at Target last night), then there's the potential for faster growth.

-- Roger

 

[crossfire]

Model or HP rocketry is not in decline. Our local club membership is up by 10-15 people. And here at Top Flight Recovery 2013 has been a very good year in fact its been our best year in the 22 years that we have been in business. I was told years ago you must run TFR like a real business not just to be here to support your hobby. All I can say is 2013 many flyers who were not coming to launches for a few years came back this year and there are many new members.
Looking forward to 2014
Happy Holiday's to all
Miki & Gary
TFRLLC

 

[Luke]

I'd just like to throw in my two cents before we all start bashing the youth and those blasted video games.

I am 24, an avid video games fan and I live in the city. But I have also been into RC hobbies since I was a kid, it was passed on to me through my Dad who flew line control aircraft when he was young. It started with RC cars, then a break for a while during my teens when it was 'uncool', until I discovered rocketry, and now I am just nearing the end of building a balsa RC aircraft from plans, alongside a couple of rockets.

The whole thing that attracts me to these hobbies is the building, engineering, learning skills and using my hands to create something (I have never been a fan of ready to fly aircraft and I am put off many rocket kits because of their ease of build).

Sadly I have never met anybody my own age (outside of clubs) that shares the same passion or interest in RC or any similar hobby. I have had friends who have always shown interest in what I am building, but would never take the step of being involved themselves. I think it is more to do with mindset, as I say I obviously have an engineers mind and that is what fascinates me.

There is also the obvious costs involved, over here in the UK hobbies are extremely expensive to become involved in as well as just 'awareness' of the range of things out there available to get involved with, build, fly, race, drive whatever.

As for the decline in vendors and 'kits', I have already touched on the fact I enjoy building from scratch and solving issues myself, I would much prefer to see a business model based on selling plans rather than kits, stocking numerous components which can be used across different plans etc seems like a far more sustainable business model than selling full kits.

 

[jadebox]

I think there's definitely a "rose-colored glasses" nostalgia side to this. Even back in the pre-video games days, I don't think that kids who spent time building things like rockets or airplanes were all that common. When our entire sixth-grade class built and flew rockets back in the early 1970s, only three of us were interested enough to continue with rockets after the class project ended. (And, I'm pretty sure that only one of use continues to build and fly them now.)

-- Roger

 

[thobin]

Our club is growing and we are planing more launches not less. More products are coming available not less, everything has a cycle a ebb and flow. Its how the free market works.

TA

 

[Area66]

My theory on the Estes sale is not that it is a harbinger of doom. I think they probably just wanted to lower inventory and get some money in the bank before year end, so they had a big sale.

Companies lower their inventory at the end of their fiscal years to lower their assets and give less money to IRS, it's not for make more money, it for pay less.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Companies lower their inventory at the end of their fiscal years to lower their assets and give less money to IRS, it's not for make more money, it for pay less.

I understand that lowering inventory is not always about making money, but it does bring in money, even if everything is sold at a loss.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Unless you can get access to all the vendors' financials, it's hard to know what is going on with their businesses. But if club memberships are still robust, then there is still a market, and I wouldn't worry too much about it.

 

[JPVegh]

I can't speak to the vendor question because I just don't know but for me personally, I just have a lot less money to spend on hobbies. Even though the family gross income has risen it has not kept up with increases at the grocery store or the gas pump. A 45% increase in health insurance will kick in January 1st taking even more of our discretionary dollars. I'm sure that mine is not an unique situation. Folks out there are having to make some decisions about where to spend their dwindling disposable income, rocketry may lose out to higher priorities. Something like an unplanned root canal or trip the emergency room can quickly eat up a hobby budget and then some.

 

[RoyAtl]

Probably a reference about Bee Colonies being in decline...

ah, ok. Not the wrong thread, but a *thin* thread.

 

[rcktnut]

I look at the Estes sale as get a bunch of rockets out there and they will buy our motors. Sort of like some motor manufactures at times, have a buy a couple reloads and get a free case.

 

[tmacklin]

I can't speak to the vendor question because I just don't know but for me personally, I just have a lot less money to spend on hobbies. Even though the family gross income has risen it has not kept up with increases at the grocery store or the gas pump. A 45% increase in health insurance will kick in January 1st taking even more of our discretionary dollars. I'm sure that mine is not an unique situation. Folks out there are having to make some decisions about where to spend their dwindling disposable income, rocketry may lose out to higher priorities. Something like an unplanned root canal or trip the emergency room can quickly eat up a hobby budget and then some.

You don't suppose that the "sticker shock" of the not so Affordable Health Care Act is coming home to roost? Anybody want to buy a good, used bass boat? :cyclops:

 

[gdjsky01]

Did you possibly reply to the wrong thread?

Video Games, 'The President', Cell Towers (giggle) "It's always some damn this or that."

Was no different 5 years ago when we bitched about this or that, 10 years ago when bitched about this or that, 20 years ago when we bitched about this or that. Really. I could cut and paste this thread every few years, make a small reference to current events change, and you'd all think it was today.

Rocketry ain't that big. Look at all the small vendors we have. Go to, JonRocket, Apogee, or eRockets and look at the vendor list. It's pretty big for a purported 4000 to 5000 hobbyists amongst millions. I'd say we are lucky. What I'd be far more worried about (IF I was gonna fret over things, which I am not) is if there were no readily access BP motors.

 

[RocketT.Coyote]

I'm doing my part, but I'm only able to affect about a dozen kids per year directly, and I'm being back-stabbed and undercut by competing programs and hobbyists.

The Mr. AMA of our youth group thinks he can motivate them to come out and fly RC Planes on meeting nights and Saturdays when we wouldn't relocate to launch free model rockets. But now we got ourselves a STEM kit, and AMA guy does love to play Santa when it's someone else's stuff.
:eyeroll:

 

[Delta-IV]

As a "manufacturer" and a fairly new one at that, to me it is knowing what you can vs what you want to do. If I was retired I'd be trying to push more kits out and to more vendors. In reality its my day job that allows me to do the thing I love and that's "more rockets".

My case in the last couple of years has been pretty good, my sales are up and I am offering more products and services as I gain experience and equipment. Knowing how to do things better, quicker and cheaper (don't ask my wife about that last one) is also helping.

I know this is a niche market and one where I know I won't be adding CEO as a title and a big bonus every quarter. Maybe I could get a quarter every quarter

-Carl-

 

[shrox]

You don't suppose that the "sticker shock" of the not so Affordable Health Care Act is coming home to roost? Anybody want to buy a good, used bass boat? :cyclops:

No.

 

[crossfire]

Carl
What is the normal shipping time for a pre built model?
Gary

 

[JStarStar]

Sheryl from Semroc has posted on YORF that the Sat 1B deletion was essentially a computer glitch; they are behind on getting some detail parts ready for kitting but they do intend to continue offering the model.

Everybody probably ought to cool off a bit and take a few deep breaths. Patience will pay off.

 

[JStarStar]

My health insurance premiums had been jacked up more than 15% in each of the SIX previous years (more than 30%, twice). So yes, discretionary income is going down.

 

[shrox]

My health insurance premiums had been jacked up more than 15% in each of the SIX previous years (more than 30%, twice). So yes, discretionary income is going down.

Until now I have been uninsurable. Now I will have health coverage, and since my condition does directly affect my rocket wizard powers, it's probably a good thing.