When is the Starship orbital launch?

Onebadhawk
Wildman Rocketry
the rocketry show
eggtimer rocketry
The Rocketry Forum

Help Support The Rocketry Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
We were supposed to have an Xmas Eve launch of Vulcan Centaur and that was scrubbed, we were supposed to have a Falcon Heavy launch and that was scrubbed, we were supposed to have New Glenn soon as well, and that's nebulous since they are so secretive. Frankly, I predict Starship will be going to the moon before any of these other systems get off the ground. New Shepard is going up in 21 hours (hopefully); for the first time in over a year, so there's that, but aside from Rocket Labs' Electron, I don't see anybody doing anything. It's all like they fell asleep.

I hope 2024 will be more interesting, because 2023 was dominated by one firm and one firm only.
 
Marc_G said:
Any news on latest launch timing? I remember it was NET Dec31, haven't heard updates recently.
Click to expand...

According to the NasaSpaceflight website as of Dec 14 Ship 28 has been rolled out and is undergoing testing for Flight 3, which is scheduled for NET January 2024. Booster 10 is planned for Flight 3 and is sitting in the Rocket Garden waiting on final testing and stacking.
 
techrat said:
We were supposed to have an Xmas Eve launch of Vulcan Centaur and that was scrubbed, we were supposed to have a Falcon Heavy launch and that was scrubbed, we were supposed to have New Glenn soon as well, and that's nebulous since they are so secretive. Frankly, I predict Starship will be going to the moon before any of these other systems get off the ground.
Click to expand...
The first Vulcan Centaur is fully built. The latest Falcon Heavy is fully built and its predecessors have flown successfully eight times already. While New Glen is not complete, much of its hardware is, and its flights are to be more or less standard single-launch missions.

Starship has yet to achieve orbit or survive flight. In order to go to the moon, a tanker version has to be built and tested, an orbital propellant debot has to be built and tested, more than ten and possibly as many as high-teens tanker launches will have to be made to fuel the depot, and only then can a Starship be launched that will be able to go to the moon.

Even if we're talking about a free-return trajectory of a standard Starship, not the HLS, and even if the tankers and oribtal depot already existed (they don't), I find it next to impossible that SpaceX can achieve at least a dozen successul launches of at least three different versions of Starship (tanker, depot, standard) before Vulcan can fly or Falcon Heavy can fly again. I even expect New Glen to fly before any form of Starship goes to the moon, though I wouldn't bet a ton of money on it.
 
bad_idea said:
The first Vulcan Centaur is fully built. The latest Falcon Heavy is fully built and its predecessors have flown successfully eight times already. While New Glen is not complete, much of its hardware is, and its flights are to be more or less standard single-launch missions.

Starship has yet to achieve orbit or survive flight. In order to go to the moon, a tanker version has to be built and tested, an orbital propellant debot has to be built and tested, more than ten and possibly as many as high-teens tanker launches will have to be made to fuel the depot, and only then can a Starship be launched that will be able to go to the moon.

Even if we're talking about a free-return trajectory of a standard Starship, not the HLS, and even if the tankers and oribtal depot already existed (they don't), I find it next to impossible that SpaceX can achieve at least a dozen successul launches of at least three different versions of Starship (tanker, depot, standard) before Vulcan can fly or Falcon Heavy can fly again. I even expect New Glen to fly before any form of Starship goes to the moon, though I wouldn't bet a ton of money on it.
Click to expand...

Agreed. The Falcon Heavy is already proven, so that one really shouldn’t be in the “race”. It’s really between the unproven systems — Vulcan Centaur, New Glenn, and Starship. I wouldn’t be surprised if Vulcan Centaur flies successfully the first try. New Glenn and Starship are trying something new for both companies, and it might take awhile, but I bet Starship makes it to orbit first, while New Glenn makes it to orbit before Starship lands on the moon.
 
ThirstyBarbarian said:
Agreed. The Falcon Heavy is already proven, so that one really shouldn’t be in the “race”. It’s really between the unproven systems — Vulcan Centaur, New Glenn, and Starship. I wouldn’t be surprised if Vulcan Centaur flies successfully the first try. New Glenn and Starship are trying something new for both companies, and it might take awhile, but I bet Starship makes it to orbit first, while New Glenn makes it to orbit before Starship lands on the moon.
Click to expand...
Yes. Ariane 6 is another long-delayed rocket I expect to fly soon, and like Vulcan Centaur, I suspect odds are good the first flight will be successful.

I think a lot of people confuse the development state of Starship with that of mostly (or fully) complete, fully-designed rockets that are working through inevitable last-minute niggles. We went through this same thing with SLS.

Ultimately Starship may end up being all that's expected for it (I certainly hope so), and it may even prove to have an exemplarily low development cost and time, but SpaceX is very cagey about reporting the actual state of development, and I doubt it's nearly as close to being finished as many seem to think.

(I'm also unsure "move fast and break things" scales to this size and complexity, but that's a separate matter.)
 
I found this just amazing: (quote from linked article)

"The company performed 96 Falcon launches in 2023 and Musk said the company was planning “150 flights or thereabouts” in 2024. Company executives previously set a goal of 144 launches, or 12 per month, for 2024.

That flight rate will include a planned turnaround of less than 24 hours between launches from the same pad by the end of the year. Musk added SpaceX was working to qualify Falcon 9 boosters to perform 40 flights. The company has, to date, flown the same booster up to 19 times."

WOW.... Just wow.
 
If Jeff Bezos can recover an F1 Saturn V first stage motor from the bottom of the ocean, I think Musk's group will work out the bugs and get their system flying reliably eventually.

Ever see the videos from the '50's of all the U.S. rockets that blew up on the pads or had to be self destructed in flight when they went out of control? I think there were a fair number of failures then.

Musk is just paying for it himself. Yeah he can charge to launch commercial stuff but I bet the insurance premiums would be substantially high on the payloads at this time. I think they'll eventually get the bugs and gremlins worked out as long as Musk doesn't run out of money. Kurt
 
ksaves2 said:
Musk is just paying for it himself. Yeah he can charge to launch commercial stuff but I bet the insurance premiums would be substantially high on the payloads at this time. I think they'll eventually get the bugs and gremlins worked out as long as Musk doesn't run out of money.
Click to expand...
SpaceX, being a privately held company, doesn't issue an annual report that I know of. Therefore, we don't know what they have in the bank. However, it can be reasonably guessed that they make a few million dollars profit from each Falcon 9 launch, especially at this point where the large majority of Stage 1 is on it's 10+ reuse, therefore, the biggest cost to SpaceX at this point is propellant.

That said, SpaceX is invested in Starlink, and Starship. Those are eating into profitability (which I suspect is one of the reasons SpaceX is *not* a public firm, because a Board of Directors and shareholder votes tend to put the kibosh on anything not immediately profitable, and SpaceX is playing a long game, something most American companies do NOT do). And that said, Musk himself has enough net worth to single-handedly fund SpaceX for the next 30 years, more than enough time to get things to where he wants them to be.

Starship will eventually work, even if it takes 10 more IFTs to get things right. And I predict it'll be much sooner than that.
In 3 or 4 years, Starship flights will be so routine, we'll start ignoring them.
 
Greg Furtman said:
Maybe they need to launch a Tesla Semi into orbit the next flight. :)
Click to expand...
One change is that they are going ahead making IFT-3 an orbital attempt rather than sub-orbital to consume more propellant. They may also include a partial payload of satellites to be released to test out the "pez dispenser". This will add mass that will require the propellant to be used up so that they don't have to bleed excess oxygen or fuel which in turn should increase safety because of not bleeding it out.
 
Last edited:
SpaceX has completed and sent the Mishap Report to the FAA this week. The analysis of the report, recommendations for improvements, and approval shouldn't take too long. So a February launch is a very real possibility. Next steps will like by a WDR at the pad and testing the improvements with the quick disconnect.
SpaceX is marking time with numerous improvements on the launch site and prepping for an additional launch tower. They might complete the second launch system for late this year or more probable, early next year. To get to SpaceX's planned cadence, they will need multiple launch towers and not just at Boca Chica but also Cape Canaveral and possibly Vandenburg.
 
Last edited:
techrat said:
...

Starship will eventually work, even if it takes 10 more IFTs to get things right. And I predict it'll be much sooner than that.
In 3 or 4 years, Starship flights will be so routine, we'll start ignoring them.
Click to expand...
SpaceX's iteniterative approach to design is such that Starship is unlikely to have a complete lock-down in design but rather improvements made on each flight. Each flight will have additional changes, improvements, and missions. Version 2 will fly after then next 4 IFTs and Version 3 (extended booster and starship) will fly at some point in the future. They have to test it to make it an efficient launch vehicle, they test it as a fuel depot, then as a payload vehicle, then test it as personnel vehicle before eventually completing a landing vehicle. All different versions. 4 IFT launches are scheduled for this year so I don't expect a usable version until sometime next year even if every goes as planned.
 
Last edited:
Lord Rory Gin said:
SpaceX's iteniterative approach to design is such that Starship is unlikely to have a complete lock-down in design but rather improvements made on each flight. Each flight will have additional changes, improvements, and missions. They have to test it to make it an efficient launch vehicle, they test it as a fuel depot, then as a payload vehicle, then test it as personnel vehicle before eventually completing a landing vehicle. All different versions. 4 IFT launches are scheduled for this year so I don't expect a usable version until sometime next year even if every goes as planned.
Click to expand...
They will need to stop improvements at some point after the 3rd config and before finalizing the 4th (manned). Once they go to get the "man rated" certification, the speed, and type if changes need to slow to a crawl.

Remember both NASA and FAA stepped in when spacex wanted to keep changing the "man rated" version if the Falcon-9. Everyone has different opinions of what the definition of "minor improvements" is/was, and what re-tests are required.
 
NTP2 said:
It sort of seems like the FFA splits its time between planes and approving all the spaceX stuff.
Click to expand...
I mean, yes. Because those are major parts of its job. That's sort of like saying that the Secret Service splits its time between investigating counterfeiting and protecting the President.

But there is also an issue where the FAA doesn't really have enough staff right now to keep up with the increase in space launch activity.
 

Similar threads

Ez2cDave
Senate puts NASA on notice over Mars mission
Replies
21
Views
2K
RocketPro
RocketPro
bandman444
Project Sasquatch (24" diameter Madcow Squat)
2
Replies
51
Views
4K
cbrarick
cbrarick
Adrian A
Featherweight Altimeters News and Updates, November 2021
Replies
23
Views
4K
Onebadhawk
Onebadhawk
Woody's Workshop
Fun Fact of the Day 2/20/20
Replies
0
Views
899
Woody's Workshop
Woody's Workshop
Winston
OneWeb launches its first six low-Earth broadband satellites
Replies
2
Views
621
Tech 68
Tech 68

Latest posts

Back
Top