Well, being as I own the farm that Challenger 498 launches from down at Needville and am a lifelong resident of that part of the state, I'll chime in.
We're 35 miles WEST of downtown Houston, thankfully this was 35 miles EAST. At the risk of offending someone from that part of the world, once you go East of Houston and start getting into the Piney Woods, you start seeing a WHOLE DIFFERENT attitude about things... I know because half my family is from the Lufkin/Jasper/Pineland/Bronson/Center, TX area... lots of guns and chainsaws and "we don't need no gub'mint stuff goin' round here" type attitudes...
Given that there was a significant investigation into the event from last year, and presuming for a moment this WAS an actual rocket and that events transpired as they were reported to authorities then I'd say the most likely explanation is a lone "experimenter" launching large-ish homebrew propellant rockets. Clearly this was TOO high to be a 'model' rocket-- the impulse required WOULD necessitate HPR motor-equivalent impulse to achieve such altitudes. Assuming a minimum-diameter model flying on a home-made motor, it's certainly possible it could reach that altitude. That proximity to an airliner in flight is certainly would require either active guidance or extraordinary luck on the order of winning the lottery! You're talking about an airliner moving at a couple hundred miles an hour (at least) being approached at altitude by a (presumably unguided) rocket travelling a ballistic trajectory at several hundred miles an hour and they both come within (several most likely) hundred feet of each other?? Probabilities on that one are almost off-scale low...
Regardless, a 'rocket' that size SHOULD have been visible on radar, especially that close to the installations, and despite not having a transponder. That would at least confirm or deny the existence of a 'foriegn object' in the flightpath of the plane. A rocket of such size and impulse would require either someone with HPR knowledge and (presumably) the certifications necessary to buy the motors of the appropriate impulse, which was all fairly well investigated last year AFAIK, or else a 'maverick' "experimenter" making homemade propellants and launching illegally. AFAIK, there are NO HPR launching fields in that area being used by any Houston area clubs.
So, eliminating the probable and the possible, we're left with two possibilities-Either 1) and individual of unknown motive or intent possessing the knowledge, skills, and access to materials necessary to either procure or construct a HPR rocket motor from existing manufactured components or manufacturing them from raw materials as an 'experimental' motor/rocket, launching illegally and either a) accidentally or b) intentionally trying to hit an airliner for kicks, to create bad publicity for rocketry in general, or just abject stupidity, or 2) unknown individual(s) actually firing guided munitions at airliners in an attempt to bring one down, which have thankfully so far been unsuccessful. Such individual(s) may be using smuggled armaments or home-made components or a combination thereof. Given the proximity of the sightings (assuming the accounts are accurate and credible for a moment) then it seems a deliberate attempt IS being made by whomever is doing this to either frighten or actually hit an aircraft. Either that or supremely monumental stupidity combined with extraordinary luck in bringing the two vehicles into such proximity that the 'rocket' is observable from the aircraft.
As for enforcement-- well, outlawing legal rocketry activities will do NOTHING to prevent any 'maverick' individual from obtaining materials to illegally construct things to continue such 'stunts'. The individual(s) doing this are clearly operating outside the law, the safety code(s) and provisions of the national rocketry organizations, and the rules governing both HPR certifications and experimental rocketry activities. Apprehending such individual(s) engaged in such clandestine activities is extremely difficult, as evidenced by the time required to apprehend the Unabomber and other such 'lone wolves' engaging in illegal activities.
Hopefully law enforcement will get a break and apprehend these individual(s) as they ARE putting a bad light on legal and safe rocketry activities, and all rocket enthusiasts SHOULD cooperate fully with law enforcement to that end, as Trip mentioned.
JMHO! OL JR
