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BABAR

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What did India do differently from what we (U.S., apologies to other nationals) have done that their cases are surging?
Are their vaccination rates that much lower?
Are they just more overcrowded?
Regarding masking and social distancing, it sure looks like U.S. is lowering its guard now.

because of those who choose not to be vaccinated here (they certainly have the right to decline, but still annoying and scary to those of us who got the shot or shots), now I am reading that U.S. may not reach “herd immunity”, and I am not sure it matters if the WORLD doesn’t reach herd immunity because any country of significant size that DOESN’T get there becomes the “petri dish” to breed vaccine resistant variants.

it looks like worldwide the number of daily new cases is about as high as it has ever been. I presume the probability of successful vaccine resistant strains is roughly proportional to the number of active cases, so it seems like we are far from being out of the woods at this point.
 
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boatgeek

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What did India do differently from what we (U.S., apologies to other nationals) have done that their cases are surging?
Are their vaccination rates that much lower?
Are they just more overcrowded?
Regarding masking and social distancing, it sure looks like U.S. is lowering its guard now.

because of those who choose not to be vaccinated here (their right, but still annoying and scary to those of us who got the shot or shots), now I am reading that U.S. may not reach “herd immunity”, and I am not sure it matters if the WORLD doesn’t reach herd immunity because any country of significant size that DOESN’T get there becomes the “petri dish” to breed vaccine resistant variants.

it looks like worldwide the number of daily new cases is about as high as it has ever been. I presume the probability of successful vaccine resistant strains is roughly proportional to the number of active cases, so it seems like we are far from being out of the woods at this point.
Up until two months ago, India looked great in terms of cases per day. As I understand it, there are a few factors in how things went to hell in a handbasket:
* Relatively lower vaccination rates
* Many large political rallies
* A few large religious festivals involving travel and lots of crowds
* Political aversion to new lockdowns
 

BABAR

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Up until two months ago, India looked great in terms of cases per day. As I understand it, there are a few factors in how things went to hell in a handbasket:
* Relatively lower vaccination rates
* Many large political rallies
* A few large religious festivals involving travel and lots of crowds
* Political aversion to new lockdowns
And we just reopened Disneyland (but only to Californians)......
 

Bowman

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What did India do differently from what we (U.S., apologies to other nationals) have done that their cases are surging?
Are their vaccination rates that much lower?
Are they just more overcrowded?
Regarding masking and social distancing, it sure looks like U.S. is lowering its guard now.

because of those who choose not to be vaccinated here (their right, but still annoying and scary to those of us who got the shot or shots), now I am reading that U.S. may not reach “herd immunity”, and I am not sure it matters if the WORLD doesn’t reach herd immunity because any country of significant size that DOESN’T get there becomes the “petri dish” to breed vaccine resistant variants.

it looks like worldwide the number of daily new cases is about as high as it has ever been. I presume the probability of successful vaccine resistant strains is roughly proportional to the number of active cases, so it seems like we are far from being out of the woods at this point.
Having been to India in the last 5 years makes me say I am not surprised that they are having a terrible battle with the virus.
Congestion and poverty on one hand contrast against far out rural areas with very limited access to healthcare.
It is a bad situation with no easy solution.

As for the US I agree. Seeing the population acting like this is over is scary.
I agree with your point that the variant risk is related to the number of infection. What scares me is the risk of a variant that exhibits a higher mortality rate. Every new infection brings that possibility and on the broader world stage it is probably an exponential increase in risk given the huge genetic pallette it has to work with.
 

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What did India do differently from what we (U.S., apologies to other nationals) have done that their cases are surging?
Are their vaccination rates that much lower?
Are they just more overcrowded?
Regarding masking and social distancing, it sure looks like U.S. is lowering its guard now.

because of those who choose not to be vaccinated here (they certainly have the right to decline, but still annoying and scary to those of us who got the shot or shots), now I am reading that U.S. may not reach “herd immunity”, and I am not sure it matters if the WORLD doesn’t reach herd immunity because any country of significant size that DOESN’T get there becomes the “petri dish” to breed vaccine resistant variants.

it looks like worldwide the number of daily new cases is about as high as it has ever been. I presume the probability of successful vaccine resistant strains is roughly proportional to the number of active cases, so it seems like we are far from being out of the woods at this point.
Yes, India has a lower vaccination rate and has had a relatively lower infection rate till now. Over crowding can play a part.

The US is lowering it’s guard and that concerns me, but it is human nature.
 

BABAR

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. What scares me is the risk of a variant that exhibits a higher mortality rate. Every new infection brings that possibility and on the broader world stage it is probably an exponential increase in risk given the huge genetic pallette it has to work with.
Very nicely and eloquently put.
 

BABAR

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What makes it particuarly scary to those who are vaccinated?
Currently to my knowledge at least the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are continuing to provide some protection against the variants. But for the most part in the case of infectious diseases, if you can’t completely eradicate it from the population, resistance eventually develops. I am concerned this will go from being epidemic/pandemic * to being ENDEMIC, and like the flu vaccine, will require annual shots that are aimed at the “best SWAGS**” of the current variants from the previous year. And as you know, the flu shot concocters do their best but don’t always guess right.

of course, another reservoir is wildlife. Whether WE got it from bats or pangolins or unicorns, we’ve given it to minks and tigers and all sorts of other animals. Turnabout being fair play, they also may return “the gift that keeps on giving” back to us in a form that is vaccine resistant, more communicable, more deadly, or any combination thereof,

but right now, the main reservoir is human, and the total size of that actively infected reservoir WORLDWIDE isn’t changing much, even as cases and deaths ARE declining in countries that have out effort into both prevention (masks, distance, hand hygiene) and vaccinating. The best we can shoot for now is to balance prevention measures with economic sense while we hope to get most of the WORLD population vaccinated with the most up to date vaccines. As I said, absolutely people have a right to decline the vaccination. Probably MOST of those will eventually get some variant or another. A small proportion will die, a slightly larger proportion will have severe chronic side effects, a small proportion will have mild long term effects. Most will probably completely recover. Of all those who DO recover, however, the evidence suggests they are higher risk for REPEAT infection as it appears acquired immunity (from actually getting the disease) isnot as durable/long lasting as vaccination immunity. (And I’m a doctor and I I did NOT expect that!)

this is a battle that much be won at the individual level, the family level, the community level, the state level, the National level, and the global level. If not, it’s like “Poltergeist: They’re baaaa-aback!”


*from webmd


An epidemic is a disease that affects a large number of people within a community, population, or region. A pandemic is an epidemic that has spread to multiple countries or continents across the world.Oct 6, 2020

**SWAGs: Scientific WAGs.
 
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Nytrunner

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I am concerned this will go from being epidemic/pandemic * to being ENDEMIC, and like the flu vaccine, will require annual shots that are aimed at the “best SWAGS**” of the current variants from the previous year.
Given the nature of coronaviruses like the common cold and others, was it ever a possibility that it it could be headed off without become an endemic?
That's a serious question. As far as I was aware the best case scenario was reducing death toll due to the novel phase and getting into about as decent control as we have for the flu.
 

Peartree

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Given the nature of coronaviruses like the common cold and others, was it ever a possibility that it it could be headed off without become an endemic?
That's a serious question. As far as I was aware the best case scenario was reducing death toll due to the novel phase and getting into about as decent control as we have for the flu.
As I understand it, yes, but that ship sailed a year ago when a) it was not contained in China, and b) everyone else let it spread before enacting serious control measures. Once it was in tens if countries and in the tens if millions of victims, there wasn't much chance if getting the genie back in the bottle.
 

mo2872

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24 hour JJ report......woke at 3 this morning with a headache, “heavy” body, aches in the joints. Was awake until almost five with just overall discomfort. Took some Advil. Woke again around 6:30 with shivers, but no fever, still aching. Pretty much felt like a ton of bricks landed on me. Stayed home today to rest.

The vax has felt worse than having Covid so far. However, my case was pretty lame with only a 6 hour fever, no other symptoms, and yet a positive test.

Oh, have also had various tender lymph nodes today.
 

Bowman

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a) it was not contained in China, and b) everyone else let it spread before enacting serious control measures.
I personally find it frustrating that when we hear about new controls being implemented it is "effective (pick some date in the future)" thereby initiating the scramble to move to where you want to be when it takes effect.

We didn't do that with Sept. 11th, we shut things down now!

I don't know that it matters now but it sure seems like immediate implementation of controls make more sense than giving 5 days notice, unless, you implement advanced and vigorous screening with forced quarantine, immediately during the buffer period.
Once you know you have a fire, you focus and stay focused on containment until it is knocked down, unless you are waving the white flag.
I sometimes feel that politicians are afraid of offending someone so they stay away from the right measures.
 

Bowman

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The vax has felt worse than having Covid so far. However, my case was pretty lame with only a 6 hour fever, no other symptoms, and yet a positive test.
I had my 2nd dose of Moderna last Thursday.
Soreness in my arm was slightly worse but did not last as long (12 hrs).
The next day I woke to slight body aches but no other symptoms.
Took 1 200mg Ibuprofen at ~10am and discomfort was gone thereafter.
Grateful for a non-eventful experience & hope the same for others.
 

BABAR

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24 hour JJ report......woke at 3 this morning with a headache, “heavy” body, aches in the joints. Was awake until almost five with just overall discomfort. Took some Advil. Woke again around 6:30 with shivers, but no fever, still aching. Pretty much felt like a ton of bricks landed on me. Stayed home today to rest.

The vax has felt worse than having Covid so far. However, my case was pretty lame with only a 6 hour fever, no other symptoms, and yet a positive test.

Oh, have also had various tender lymph nodes today.
You are not alone. Having already been exposed to Covid “Primes” you for a stronger reaction to the vaccine than Covid Naive recipients. For what it’s worth, the experts still think you will get a more durable immunity from a Covid plus vaccine than just Covid alone.

hope you are back to 100% soon.

 

mo2872

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You are not alone. Having already been exposed to Covid “Primes” you for a stronger reaction to the vaccine than Covid Naive recipients. For what it’s worth, the experts still think you will get a more durable immunity from a Covid plus vaccine than just Covid alone.

hope you are back to 100% soon.

That‘s partly why I went with the JJ........reading reports that people that have had COVID may only need 1 vax shot. Plus, I don’t have to remember to go to a second shot. Also, I wanted some variety in the house......wife got Moderna. We have a 15 year old waiting for things to approve for him......
 

BABAR

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What makes it particuarly scary to those who are vaccinated?
One other important thing. Sick people (of any type) take up space in hospitals, and really sick people take up space in ICUs.

hospitals are designed to manage the “expected” number of sick and severe trauma cases and elective surgery cases, possible with a small “buffer” which can absorb the normal variance. Covid last year (and currently in India NOW) is NOT normal Blip in the numbers, it was and can again be a massive sustained SURGE. Which means even when vaccination rates reach 50-70 percent, if a particularly easily transmitted and/or more severe disease causing variant pops up and hits the UNVACCINATED minority, if they start taking up space again that reduces available beds and more importantly STAFF to take care off NON-Covid patients, for example vaccinated patients with heart attacks, strokes, or unfortunately crossing paths with drunk drivers.

so those who choose not to get the vaccine (and again, not trying to judge here) still have an impact on those of us who DO elect to get the shot.
 

BABAR

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Also, I wanted some variety in the house......wife got Moderna. We have a 15 year old waiting for things to approve for him......
You need to get out more. Oh, wait.......never mind....
 

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India is getting clobbered - 380K a day and 3500 deaths. Howdy mackerel.
 

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It's a massive humanitarian tragedy for sure. My heart goes out to them; I have many colleagues and friends there.

As a comparator, their current numbers (cases and deaths per day) are similar to the US spike around the holidays, and remember the population of India (1.3 billion) is four times that of the US. So, seen from a particular angle, what unfolded here in the US was ~4x as bad as what's going on there now.

Factor in our better access to health care, better sanitation, and lower density of population overall, and the enormity of the crisis we had becomes more stark, particularly because so much of it could have been avoided here.

My big worry is that what is happening in India is only the beginning of an even more severe upswing.
 

Nytrunner

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so those who choose not to get the vaccine (and again, not trying to judge here) still have an impact on those of us who DO elect to get the shot.
Similar to those who choose not to get flu shots, but more severe in the meantime because of the still relatively novel status of the virus?
 

boatgeek

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That‘s partly why I went with the JJ........reading reports that people that have had COVID may only need 1 vax shot. Plus, I don’t have to remember to go to a second shot. Also, I wanted some variety in the house......wife got Moderna. We have a 15 year old waiting for things to approve for him......
With any luck the 15YO will be able to get Pfizer starting next week.
 

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What is really bad is that this is reportedly being underreported. Somewhere between four and twenty times that is the real figure.
Having done mission work in Liberia, I can believe that. If there isn't any medical care where you live, there isn't anyone to report statisics of sickness and death. No doctors, no hospitals, no death certificates.
 

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What is really bad is that this is reportedly being underreported. Somewhere between four and twenty times that is the real figure.
This is India and not China. That being said, India is rural and I am sure it is not intentional.
 

afadeev

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This is India and not China. That being said, India is rural and I am sure it is not intentional.
Right, not intentional data suppression, but organic disorganization and lack of accurate data collection.

In contrast, observe China "officially" reporting +7 infections for the past 24 hours (similar to what they have been BS-ing for the last ~12 months).
Yep, that number is a bad joke.
 
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