If Estes wants more of my money, then...

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In many businesses it's generally considered true that if one persons speaks up about an issue then ten more are thinking it. I don't know if that's true for this business and Estes's customers in general. It does mean, I think, that they should listen when we talk about what we'd like, because there might be nine others who'd like the same thing.
 
I do think that in general we understand Estes’ business less well than we like to think, mainly because of the volumes involved and the constraints they impose.
 
I think the buying power of this forum is considerable. As a child, I was way into the hobby, but very limited budget wise. Over a period of seven years, I probably bought two dozen rocket kits and maybe a hundred motors.

In the last month, I've purchased nearly that many Estes kits and probably 25 motors. As a BAR, I guarantee you that I've purchased as many Honest John kits from Estes as I did total rockets as a kid.

But I agree that they're doing a great job. Just hope the trend continues.
 
lowga said:
I think the buying power of this forum is considerable. As a child, I was way into the hobby, but very limited budget wise. Over a period of seven years, I probably bought two dozen rocket kits and maybe a hundred motors.

In the last month, I've purchased nearly that many Estes kits and probably 25 motors. As a BAR, I guarantee you that I've purchased as many Honest John kits from Estes as I did total rockets as a kid.

But I agree that they're doing a great job. Just hope the trend continues.
Click to expand...
Hahaha....
Over the last month, I bought over 50 motors alone. And I want more D's, Es, Fs, Gs, Hs, Is, and they only let me buy one J-K-L... At least for now.
But I digress...
Back to Estes and my money.
How about 29mm G motors or...
38mm Black Powder.
Now that would ROCK!
Hey, it doesn't hurt to dream.
 
Lynn McCall said:
How about 29mm G motors or...
38mm Black Powder.
Now that would ROCK!
Hey, it doesn't hurt to dream.
Click to expand...
Has anyone done an analysis of performance vs. cost of BP and APCP? I can't do it now in my morning quickies; the idea would be to gather total impulse and price for all the BP motors on the market and the same for composite motors and look at the average dollars per total impulse.

BP certainly has worse Isp (worse weight per impulse) and lower "impulse density" if you will (worse volume per impulse) so unless there is a cost advantage there's really no reason to go with bigger BP motors.

For best performance you'll always use APCP until ammonium dinitramide come way down in price, but there's room in the market (at least in what I'd like to see on the market) for good performance at a lower price. If BP gives it then yes, Estes, make bigger BP motors. If R-candy is it, then maybe Estes would be interested in finding a way to address the hygroscopicity problem. Maybe the Klima propellant? If none of those does it, I rather doubt Estes is interested in fundemental research into a whole new propellant type.
 
jqavins said:
Has anyone done an analysis of performance vs. cost of BP and APCP? I can't do it now in my morning quickies; the idea would be to gather total impulse and price for all the BP motors on the market and the same for composite motors and look at the average dollars per total impulse.

BP certainly has worse Isp (worse weight per impulse) and lower "impulse density" if you will (worse volume per impulse) so unless there is a cost advantage there's really no reason to go with bigger BP motors.

For best performance you'll always use APCP until ammonium dinitramide come way down in price, but there's room in the market (at least in what I'd like to see on the market) for good performance at a lower price. If BP gives it then yes, Estes, make bigger BP motors. If R-candy is it, then maybe Estes would be interested in finding a way to address the hygroscopicity problem. Maybe the Klima propellant? If none of those does it, I rather doubt Estes is interested in fundemental research into a whole new propellant type.
Click to expand...

https://patents.google.com/patent/US20040094250A1/en
 
I'd be *very* surprised if Estes were interested in dealing with any propellant other than BP. It'd be like starting up a new company. Rather, I would expect them to continue to explore ways to get the most out of BP, and the John Langford session at NARAM suggests they are definitely open to ideas. I think he said, though, that higher-thrust 29mm motors were unlikely. I'd like to see the C5 come back, never used one but the thrust curve looks really useful.
 
Abstract said:
The invention relates to propellant compositions comprising a solid inorganic perchlorate oxidizing agent, a nitrogen-containing fuel, and a burn rate catalyst. Such compositions may be used as a propellant material, (e.g., in rocketry), a pyrotechnic material, an explosive material, a light generating material, a heat generating material, or a sound generating material.
Click to expand...
Interesting. On the face it it sounds similar to the original APCP, which was AP and polyurathane, a nitrogen containing fuel. I read somewhere that this was developed by Lockheed as a shelf stable, shock insensitive, non-hygrospopic propellant for the Navy, which needed a propellant better suited to long term storage at sea than the previously available options.

Anyway, the summary data on this Google Patents page says it is abandoned.

AP-PU is something I've considered experimenting with, as well as AP-parafin wax or AP-polyethylene, since those fuels might cost less than the PBAN or other binder/fuels more often used. The problem with that is that 75% or so of the propellant is AP, so it's the cost of AP that's the driving factor, and it's something cheaper than AP with good performance that's needed. KN might still be the answer, and then the question is what fuel can it be combined with it to get better performance per dollar than BP? (And keeping in mind that this is a simplified view, since materials are far from the only costs involved.)

I won't muse any further both because this is way off topic and because I don't want to stray into forbidden research territory.
 
jqavins said:
BP certainly has worse Isp (worse weight per impulse) and lower "impulse density" if you will (worse volume per impulse) so unless there is a cost advantage there's really no reason to go with bigger BP motors.
Click to expand...

I looked at this once, and BP does have better impulse/$$. The closest data point is the D13 (19.3 / $5.67 = 3.4) and the D12 (16.8 / $4.8 = 3.5).
 
Here's another data point: AT E20 is 35 N-s and $12.50 (0.357 $/N-s), Estes E16 is 33.4 N-s and $11.50 (0.344 $/N-s). That's basically a wash. Of course, there are a lot of costs other than the propellant itself, and these prices may have been established more for market competition reasons than the actual production costs. Obviously the fact that BP at this size will need hazmat and AP won't is a factor for mail order.

It seems very unlikely to me that Estes will go any larger with BP. Even the 29mm motors may not have much future.
 
jqavins said:
So that would be no significant difference, but one can't draw a conclusion from one data point for each propellant.
Click to expand...

mikec said:
Here's another data point: AT E20 is 35 N-s and $12.50 (0.357 $/N-s), Estes E16 is 33.4 N-s and $11.50 (0.344 $/N-s). That's basically a wash. Of course, there are a lot of costs other than the propellant itself, and these prices may have been established more for market competition reasons than the actual production costs. Obviously the fact that BP at this size will need hazmat and AP won't is a factor for mail order.

It seems very unlikely to me that Estes will go any larger with BP. Even the 29mm motors may not have much future.
Click to expand...

Yes, it's true. I didn't include the cost of the reload case for the composite motor (which isn't cheap), but mikec's data point is for a single use composite motor, so a better direct comparison. And that's a good point about not knowing the true cost of manufacturing, they may have very different profit margins.

I do recall reading somewhere that manufacturing BP motor larger than 29 mm is extremely difficult and unreliable. Even the 29mm motors are somewhat difficult to manufacture. It had something to due with pressing the material into a uniform grain, without cracks, defect, or a propensity to crack or separate from the casing walls under pressure.
 
mbeels said:
I do recall reading somewhere that manufacturing BP motor larger than 29 mm is extremely difficult and unreliable. Even the 29mm motors are somewhat difficult to manufacture. It had something to due with pressing the material into a uniform grain, without cracks, defect, or a propensity to crack or separate from the casing walls under pressure.
Click to expand...
38mm (aka 3 pound) and 54mm (aka 6 pound) SU BP motors are used in fireworks all the time.
 
All impulse data is from ThrustCurve.org. I tried to get all prices from one source but did not find one that carries everything; I have a mix of eRockets, JonRocket, and HobbyTown. (I checked eRockets first then went looking for what they didn't have. JonRocket had some but I still had to go to HobbyTown for the Estes E motors. I didn't look to see if HobbyTown could have given me everything. Also, my employer's filters block Apogee.)
upload_2019-8-27_13-17-55.png
 
jqavins said:
Has anyone done an analysis of performance vs. cost of BP and APCP? I can't do it now in my morning quickies; the idea would be to gather total impulse and price for all the BP motors on the market and the same for composite motors and look at the average dollars per total impulse.

BP certainly has worse Isp (worse weight per impulse) and lower "impulse density" if you will (worse volume per impulse) so unless there is a cost advantage there's really no reason to go with bigger BP motors.

For best performance you'll always use APCP until ammonium dinitramide come way down in price, but there's room in the market (at least in what I'd like to see on the market) for good performance at a lower price. If BP gives it then yes, Estes, make bigger BP motors. If R-candy is it, then maybe Estes would be interested in finding a way to address the hygroscopicity problem. Maybe the Klima propellant? If none of those does it, I rather doubt Estes is interested in fundemental research into a whole new propellant type.
Click to expand...
Dude,
I thought we were dreaming and talking about what-ifs. I am not trying to win the bid on a launch contract. I just like the BP motors. They are agressive and raw, but not crackley like Apcp Black Jack's.

I know 38mm is not realistic, but it might be entertaining. CATOs ... CAN be a lot of fun. Especially when it's someone else's rocket.

My Silver Comet just catod on a D12-3 a couple weeks ago. I roasted the rocket, but still looked cool.
 
jqavins said:
I tried to get all prices from one source but did not find one that carries everything...
Click to expand...
Using MSRP would eliminate bias from the various discounts that specific vendors manage to sell at, but I would concede that this suggests BP might be a little bit cheaper than APCP on an impulse basis. I still think it's unlikely that Estes will go any larger with BP and, from other indications, may well decide to quit making the 29mm line altogether.
 
jqavins said:
AP-PU is something I've considered experimenting with.
Click to expand...

I thought AP-PU was that bad smell in my car when I drive back from rocket launching and forget to take the expended casings out of the rockets and stick them in a zip lock bag.
 
mikec said:
Using MSRP would eliminate bias from the various discounts that specific vendors manage to sell at, but I would concede that this suggests BP might be a little bit cheaper than APCP on an impulse basis. I still think it's unlikely that Estes will go any larger with BP and, from other indications, may well decide to quit making the 29mm line altogether.
Click to expand...
No argument. What I think it shows is that there is very little difference. Never mind which comes out a very little bit better, it's not enough to matter. And you make a good point about using MSRP. Maybe I'll update the data. Maybe not.

BABAR said:
I thought AP-PU was that bad smell in my car when I drive back from rocket launching and forget to take the expended casings out of the rockets and stick them in a zip lock bag.
Click to expand...
I'll be sure to watch out for that if I ever get such stuff going. ;) (But I've got a different idea now that I'm thinking about it again.)
 
It had better be dang low! Have you ever seen those videos of when something goes wrong and all sorts of stuff is going off on the ground? It's really spectacular from a safe distance, but it could easily get someone killed.
 
jqavins said:
It had better be dang low! Have you ever seen those videos of when something goes wrong and all sorts of stuff is going off on the ground? It's really spectacular from a safe distance, but it could easily get someone killed.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I wonder if anyone has ever used those firework motors in rocketry. I assume it would require an EX launch.
 
Want, especially upscaled:

Estes Hornet 2030

https://www.oldrocketplans.com/estes/est2030/est2030.htm

est2030-jpg.148618

https://www.rocketryforum.com/threads/possible-upscale-estes-hornet-2030.59127/
 
mbeels said:
Interesting, I didn't know that. I wonder what the CATO rate is in fireworks.
Click to expand...
I don't know the CATO rate but they're damp pressed using multi-ton presses behind blast shields. I've made 1 pound rockets (29mm) and I'd never go as large as 6 pound. I've heard of 10 pound rockets but I don't know the casing size for that.

Here is a very cool 6pound rocket (about 54mm) They use 2in OD parallel wound paper tubes as the cases. Same thing Estes uses just MUCH bigger.

 
mbeels said:
Interesting, I didn't know that. I wonder what the CATO rate is in fireworks.
Click to expand...
As I understand, for large motors it's high enough that even the BP-motor-masters have to take stringent measures to minimize rapid spontaneous disassembly.;)

With BP motors, the larger the grain, the more likely the cracks. Core-burning motors that provide short duration high thrust are even more fragile.

In "Amateur Rocket Motor Construction" by David Sleeter he speaks of H and I BP motors. The I motors are 1.5" id, 2" od., paper casings. It would be interesting to see.
 
BRS Hobbies said:
Estes is doing a lot of cool things, even more so with the new ownership. With that being said, if Estes wants more of my money then -

1) Bring back the classics with some sort of twist - upscale, different decals, larger motor mount, etc. I love the Cherokee E with the different color decals, E motor mount and longer body tube.

The recently released Multi-Roc is cool but I would be running out to get one right away if they upscaled it to a BT55 body tube size. It would be so much cooler in a slightly larger size. Same with the Citation Patriot, if they did it in a BT80 size, more people would be excited. These kits are still cool but how about getting a little crazy and brings us something that gets us all excited.

The Boosted Bertha seems to be selling well but why not throw in an extra nose cone and design it so it can be flown multiple ways - Big Bertha and a Baby Bertha or as a Boosted Bertha.

2) Estes please release some more boost gliders like the Scissor Wing Transport or the Tomcat that have a moveable main wing. I love it when the wings spring out at ejection. But not only bring it out again as is, see if you can improve the design for better performance.

3) Pro Series Jayhawk (BT80 size) - This is a classic scale kit, that most want to have without paying crazy prices on eBay.

Basically, this is 2019, let's honor the old but give it a twist that gets the model rocket community in a frenzy.

What does Estes need to do to get more of your money?
Click to expand...
Agreed bring back the crusader and the scissor wing transport, rerelease the Tomcat and some upscaled versions of the Centuri fighter series.
On top mercury atlas, Sat1b and the obvious Gemini Titan and large version of the SLS a better shuttle stack
 
heada said:
Exactly how much of Estes market are we? If we all stopped buying kits and motors, would they even notice? We all can have requests and desires but I'm not sure how much actual influence we wield.
Click to expand...

TRF members/die-hard Estes fans represent 1-2% of Estes sales at most.
Hobbyists always over-estimate their 'value' to a hobby/business.

I found that out working for AeroTech thirty years ago.
 

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