ICEs and EVs

[bjphoenix]

The context of the discussion was refueling in an emergency evacuation.

If it is a forseen emergency you should charge ahead of time. I had to drive to my office Thursday and knowing we would have 3+ days of cold weather I filled up the gas tank on the way home. If I had an EV and had to leave my house to go somewhere in cold weather I would make sure the batteries were fully charged to start with.

 

[jderimig]

In December 2022 Ford EV engineers did cold weather testing in northern Minnesota. At an average of 0 degrees F, the EV range of various brand / model vehicles declined by 40% to 60%. In addition, at the same temperature 2% to 4% of range was lost just parked outdoors for 24 hours not plugged in. Simulating being parked outdoors at an airport. These EVs were not charged on the road during test drives because it was too cold and charging time was expected to at least double at that temperature.

Source was a Ford electrical engineer working on a future Ford EV program, who retired at the end of 2022.

The engineers there think EVs are worth $10000 less than an ICE but Ford is planning to charge $10000 more. They are not optimistic about the future of their company.

With EVs, every fault we knew of turns out to be worse than we originally thought and the list of disadvantages versus ICEs and hybrids just keeps growing

 

[afadeev]

In December 2022 Ford EV engineers did cold weather testing in northern Minnesota. At an average of 0 degrees F, the EV range of various brand / model vehicles declined by 40% to 60%. In addition, at the same temperature 2% to 4% of range was lost just parked outdoors for 24 hours not plugged in. Simulating being parked outdoors at an airport.
Source was a Ford electrical engineer working on a future Ford EV program, who retired at the end of 2022.

Cute anecdote, lots of bad data.
Where exactly is the link to the source?

40-60% range loss at 0F is pure BS.
I've driven my Tesla to ski resorts and parked it all day with temps hovering between +5F and -5F. No charging till I got home. Battery was stone cold on the way back.
In those temps, electricity consumption (inverse of range loss) goes up by ~30%.
Driving at "highway speeds" (75-80mph around here, allegedly) usually extracts another 20-25% penalty. But that is independent of the temps.

These EVs were not charged on the road during test drives because it was too cold and charging time was expected to at least double at that temperature.

No such thing as "too cold for charging".
There is also no such thing as "charging taking double" in cold temps.
Battery is preconditioned before/during charging to operating temps, then charges as normal. No drama.

The engineers there think EVs are worth $10000 less than an ICE but Ford is planning to charge $10000 more.

Any car is worth what the market will bear.
The rest is emotional gibberish.
Welcome to capitalism.

With EVs, every fault we knew of turns out to be worse than we originally thought and the list of disadvantages versus ICEs and hybrids just keeps growing

It's all fear mongering and faulty conclusions from sketchy data with you these days.
All the time. On any subject now?

BTW, my gas consumption also goes up in super cold temps.
The last ski trip mileage dropped to 22.5MPG at 15F ambient vs. 27+MPG on typical highway trips. That's about 20% cold weather penalty on an ICE car.
Comparable.
No big deal.

a

 

[jderimig]

Just relaying what I was relayed to me.

More FUD from NPR this time..
https://www.npr.org/2024/01/16/1224913698/teslas-chicago-charging-extreme-cold

 

[jderimig]

Cold temperature effect on range


https://www.geotab.com/blog/ev-range-impact-of-speed-and-temperature/

 

[cbrarick]

I saw the 240 v. generators. They weigh 100+ pounds and are really big and bulky. if everyone's evacuating, how are you gonna meet up with it, especially if you're running out of power and stuck in gridlock? i guess it may work if you have one in the back of your cybertruck, but it's too big for the rest of the tesla line.

 

[kuririn]

If it is a forseen emergency you should charge ahead of time. I had to drive to my office Thursday and knowing we would have 3+ days of cold weather I filled up the gas tank on the way home. If I had an EV and had to leave my house to go somewhere in cold weather I would make sure the batteries were fully charged to start with.

Absolutely.
Every time there's a hurricane watch here people are topping off their gas tanks, among other things.
I would expect EV owners to be just as prudent, Probably more so.

And you do not have to drive 200 to 300 miles in a hurricane evacuation.
Biggest threat is from the storm surge inundating the coastal and low lying areas.
Just drive a few miles inland and hunker down in a sturdy shelter, and you're good.

 

[FredA]

Voltage is a don't care for a TINY generator that's portable.
2KW is 2KW regardless of the voltage.
Maybe you can find 5kW that fits in the trunk along with a gas can.
But still slow charging.
Lots easier and far more "quick" mileage putting 5 gallons into a ICE car.....100 miles in 1-2 minutes.
I guess you can charge and drive - making a horribly inefficient ICE.

 

[FredA]

Who's telling the people with Tesla's in Chicago that they don't know what they experienced?
We just saw a real-time test performed under real-world conditions by and it didn't come out well.

 

[bjphoenix]

Who's telling the people with Tesla's in Chicago that they don't know what they experiences?
We just saw a real-time test performed under real-world conditions by and it didn't come out well.

I saw on the internet today that the severe cold would reduce the charge by 30%. I don't know how accurate this is but it seemed low to me. I thought the design of the Tesla took care of this in that the car has systems to manage the temperature of the battery. When you come out of your office and get in the car the battery is probably cold but after driving a few miles it should be warmed up to operating temperature and you would have your full range back. If what I've seen about the Rivian is correct it doesn't have the ability to do this.

I'm sure there are a lot of drivers who didn't pay enough attention to how much charge they had and all of a sudden ended up with very little charge left. We have 3 cars, I know that my daily driver is full but I couldn't tell you how much fuel is in the other 2 cars. My wife is driving across town tomorrow for a dentist appt so I better check her car before she leaves.

 

[boatgeek]

Who's telling the people with Tesla's in Chicago that they don't know what they experiences?
We just saw a real-time test performed under real-world conditions by and it didn't come out well.

It’s only useful if there’s a comparison. How many ICE cars were unable to start because the battery and/or block got too cold? Without that, it’s a human interest story, not data.

 

[jadebox]

I saw on the internet today that the severe cold would reduce the charge by 30%. I don't know how accurate this is but it seemed low to me. I thought the design of the Tesla took care of this in that the car has systems to manage the temperature of the battery. When you come out of your office and get in the car the battery is probably cold but after driving a few miles it should be warmed up to operating temperature and you would have your full range back. If what I've seen about the Rivian is correct it doesn't have the ability to do this.

The power to warm the battery comes at the expense of range. Plus heating the cabin is an additional drain on the battery. So, it's true that the range of EVs is reduced in cold weather. Your range may drop from say 300 miles to 210 miles a few days a year. That doesn't seem like a great hardship if you understand it and are prepared for it. EVs are new and some new owners apparently aren't that familiar with their new cars.

 

[jderimig]

Who's telling the people with Tesla's in Chicago that they don't know what they experiences?
We just saw a real-time test performed under real-world conditions by and it didn't come out well.

Amazing.

 

[Donnager]

Absolutely.
Every time there's a hurricane watch here people are topping off their gas tanks, among other things.
I would expect EV owners to be just as prudent, Probably more so.

And you do not have to drive 200 to 300 miles in a hurricane evacuation.
Biggest threat is from the storm surge inundating the coastal and low lying areas.
Just drive a few miles inland and hunker down in a sturdy shelter, and you're good.

This assumption is inaccurate. All hotels, campgrounds, and shelters, in the affected area that are wind rated will be full. In fact, all hotels within 200 miles with the exception of the most expensive suites will be full. After Ivan/Katrina, Mobile, AL residents had to go to Memphis/Nashville/Atlanta to even find a room/campsite.

The close rest locations will also have no electricity next day, unless they have a standby generator.

Recharging may be difficult.

 

[OzHybrid]

That depends entirely on what kind of work you're doing with the truck. Truck usage is bimodal. Some do 5k miles/yr, some do 50k.

If you're in the first category, F150 Lighting seems to be the best thing ever. There are many trades where you drive to just a few regular, close by job sites every day. I've seen a few contractors with Lightnings, and I know a sprinkler guy who is thinking of getting a CT.

If you are hauling something over a distance, it's hard to beat a diesel truck. A large, slow-turning diesel has incredible fuel efficiency and range.

My next daily is likely to be an electric, but not my truck. For how I use it, I could even replace my truck with a CT with the range extender battery. I'd love to, but I just can't justify the price.

There's the right tool for every job. A battery-powered airplane makes about as much sense as a turbine-powered laptop.

A battery powered airplane makes very good sense in the right application. As a short use training aircraft it's perfect with low "fuel costs" and reduced maintenance requirements. This reduces the costs of training. Potentially....
Horses for courses.

 

[OzHybrid]

Amazing.

With the current battery technology available for vehicles, they are a bad idea in cold environments. That said, ICEs aren't great either and have to be plugged into the grid to stop the fuel freezing (waxing out in diesel). But they are better than full electric.

 

[boatgeek]

This assumption is inaccurate. All hotels, campgrounds, and shelters, in the affected area that are wind rated will be full. In fact, all hotels within 200 miles with the exception of the most expensive suites will be full. After Ivan/Katrina, Mobile, AL residents had to go to Memphis/Nashville/Atlanta to even find a room/campsite.

The close rest locations will also have no electricity next day, unless they have a standby generator.

Recharging may be difficult.

If there’s no grid power, most gas stations are offline too.

 

[Donnager]

If there’s no grid power, most gas stations are offline too.

Most (large chain) gas stations on the coast actually have enough backup generation to provide pump power. Not necessarily enough to run their coolers, but they can pump gasoline and diesel until their tanks run dry.

My experience after a major hurricane is that it takes about 36-48 hours, for all stations to be down (depending on the media fearmongering), and out of fuel, unless they can get deliveries. I don't believe these stations have significant provisions for charging, although that could be changing (Buc-ees for example).

 

[kuririn]

This assumption is inaccurate. All hotels, campgrounds, and shelters, in the affected area that are wind rated will be full. In fact, all hotels within 200 miles with the exception of the most expensive suites will be full. After Ivan/Katrina, Mobile, AL residents had to go to Memphis/Nashville/Atlanta to even find a room/campsite.

The close rest locations will also have no electricity next day, unless they have a standby generator.

Recharging may be difficult.

This is a common fallacy.
As I said the biggest danger is not from the wind but from the storm surge and inundation.
So evacuate a few miles away from the coast and low lying areas.
And you do not have to book into a hotel.
Just stay with friends or relatives for a few hours until the hurricane passes over.
I have been through many hurricane watches and warnings over the decades.
This is not my first rodeo.
If I evacuate 200 miles away I will be in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/hurricanes-tropical-storms-us-deaths-surge-flooding

 

[Donnager]

This is a common fallacy.
As I said the biggest danger is not from the wind but from the storm surge and inundation.
So evacuate a few miles away from the coast and low lying areas.
And you do not have to book into a hotel.
Just stay with friends or relatives for a few hours until the hurricane passes over.
I have been through many hurricane watches and warnings over the decades.
This is not my first rodeo.
If I evacuate 200 miles away I will be in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/hurricanes-tropical-storms-us-deaths-surge-flooding

Are we talking about EV charging on this thread, or storm surge? I feel we are dealing with some pretty mobile goalposts.

It must be nice to live on an Island (with steep sides)....so to speak.

 

[Tyeeking]

If there’s no grid power, most gas stations are offline too.

Hence the importance of range.

 

[boatgeek]

Let's see here:

In my fire department we have 3 engines, a heavy ladder, a heavy rescue, a tanker and 2 pickup trucks.
we have portable generators in 2 of our trucks, and only one each. Guess what? We're not going to leave them with a EV to charge
Every truck has at least one tank with gas in it. In a major emergency where we'd need it we have a few large portable tanks with electric pumps.

Most of our city cop cars carry 5 gallon gas can.

How large are those large portable tanks? Because...

This assumption is inaccurate. All hotels, campgrounds, and shelters, in the affected area that are wind rated will be full. In fact, all hotels within 200 miles with the exception of the most expensive suites will be full. After Ivan/Katrina, Mobile, AL residents had to go to Memphis/Nashville/Atlanta to even find a room/campsite.

If you need to fill a substantial number of cars with enough gas to get even 100 miles away, it's an awful lot of gas. That 5-gallon can in the police car might get my minivan 100 miles. Or perhaps 2-3 Priuses. If there are several hundred cars by the side of the road, that's going to take a non-trivial amount of time. Yes, it probably would be faster than EVs, but probably not as much faster as you're implying. There is still a logistics chain to establish.

Most (large chain) gas stations on the coast actually have enough backup generation to provide pump power. Not necessarily enough to run their coolers, but they can pump gasoline and diesel until their tanks run dry.

My experience after a major hurricane is that it takes about 36-48 hours, for all stations to be down (depending on the media fearmongering), and out of fuel, unless they can get deliveries. I don't believe these stations have significant provisions for charging, although that could be changing (Buc-ees for example).

I suppose it doesn't really matter what causes the gas station closures if there's no gas available for 2-5 days after a major storm. Let's also not forget that the people preparing for a storm tend to buy a lot of gas, which can run stations dry even before the storm hits. And sometimes it takes a while to recover, even from a non-hurricane storm. Take this case in FL for example. There were widespread gas shortages a week after a relatively local storm, and the state was expecting shortages to continue for another week.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/south-florida-no-gas-fuel-supply-issues-fort-lauderdale-miami/
Anyone with an electric car in those circumstances would be happily charging as normal while the ICE cars circle looking for a gas station that still has gas.

Again, I'm not saying that EVs are perfect. Or that there aren't complications. I'm saying that it's not as simple as "ICE cars are better in cold/hurricanes/other natural disaster."

 

[Back_at_it]

As someone that lives in communist state of Illinois and more specifically, the burbs of Chicago I can comment on the cold snap. Over the past 5 days I've had to commute to a memorial service, Breakfast, dinner, clients and shockingly, into our office for the first time in ages. There is a Tesla charging station on my route to the office and I saw at least two dozen cars sitting waiting to charge at 6am on Monday. These ranged from older Model S all the way to a brand new X and interestingly a Rivian that didn't even have its plates yet. There are only six chargers there so you can do the math on how long those people had to wait to "fill up".

Heading to the office. there was a IONIC5 sitting on the side of the road dead. My office complex has four charging stations and had seven cars waiting. The cars charging didn't even have people in them. As a comparison, I didn't see a single ICE car stalled or stranded other than the one goof trying to drive his Mustang up a hill in the snow storm.

Besides the fact that we are 20 years away from having the infrastructure to support the current amount of EV's on the road, people don't take into account that power goes out in cold snaps like this. Mine was out intermittently on Friday while others were out for multiple days. My guess is that the people that were caught sitting at these chargers were the same ones whos power was out and couldn't change at home.

Now lets look at projected EV market. Hertz just announced they are dumping 200,000 of their EV's due to increased cost of maintenance, lack of range and the simple fact that no one rents them. Ford slashed lightning production by 50% for 2024 and the Mach-E currently has 304 days of unsold inventory on the dealer lots.

Toyota is fighting the EV trend at every step and recently announced that their joint venture with Subaru will be a one and done. Once that model runs its course they aren't building another EV with Subaru. They are also postponing the battery plant in NC. saying the project is on hold while they determine if they are moving forward with EV's in the future. GM and Honda scrapped joint ventures on an EV and GM put their electric truck releases on hold indefinitely. GM is also walking back their decision to be all electric by 2035 now stating that they will see what the market wants.

To add insult to injury, there are a number of dealerships across the country and even some near me that will not take an EV in on trade. The local Ford dealer has a sign on their front door that states they will not take your EV as a trade on a new or used car. I was in having a car serviced and talked to a salesman and he confirmed they won't take them. The joke was that you could buy a new Mach-E from him today but he won't take it back on trade tomorrow. If that doesn't tell you everything you need to know then I don't know what will.

Personally, I feel the EV bubble is going to pop. I don't think the market is completely dead as there will continue to be those that think they are saving the planet by owning an EV but it's pretty obvious that gas electric or even diesel electric hybrids are the future. With all of the battery plants being built they will need to justify them while finding a way to actually sell cars. You get all the benefits of electric without the downside of limited range.

Which brings me to my last point. On my way home yesterday, I looked down and was a touch under a half a tank so I pulled into the gas station where no one was waiting, filled up and was on my way with 520 miles of range in 5 mins. The only time EV's are going to become main stream is when you can pull up, plug in and drive off in under 10 mins with 300+ miles of range. I personally will never own one.

 

[OzHybrid]

As someone that lives in communist state of Illinois and more specifically, the burbs of Chicago I can comment on the cold snap. Over the past 5 days I've had to commute to a memorial service, Breakfast, dinner, clients and shockingly, into our office for the first time in ages. There is a Tesla charging station on my route to the office and I saw at least two dozen cars sitting waiting to charge at 6am on Monday. These ranged from older Model S all the way to a brand new X and interestingly a Rivian that didn't even have its plates yet. There are only six chargers there so you can do the math on how long those people had to wait to "fill up".

Heading to the office. there was a IONIC5 sitting on the side of the road dead. My office complex has four charging stations and had seven cars waiting. The cars charging didn't even have people in them. As a comparison, I didn't see a single ICE car stalled or stranded other than the one goof trying to drive his Mustang up a hill in the snow storm.

Besides the fact that we are 20 years away from having the infrastructure to support the current amount of EV's on the road, people don't take into account that power goes out in cold snaps like this. Mine was out intermittently on Friday while others were out for multiple days. My guess is that the people that were caught sitting at these chargers were the same ones whos power was out and couldn't change at home.

Now lets look at projected EV market. Hertz just announced they are dumping 200,000 of their EV's due to increased cost of maintenance, lack of range and the simple fact that no one rents them. Ford slashed lightning production by 50% for 2024 and the Mach-E currently has 304 days of unsold inventory on the dealer lots.

Toyota is fighting the EV trend at every step and recently announced that their joint venture with Subaru will be a one and done. Once that model runs its course they aren't building another EV with Subaru. They are also postponing the battery plant in NC. saying the project is on hold while they determine if they are moving forward with EV's in the future. GM and Honda scrapped joint ventures on an EV and GM put their electric truck releases on hold indefinitely. GM is also walking back their decision to be all electric by 2035 now stating that they will see what the market wants.

To add insult to injury, there are a number of dealerships across the country and even some near me that will not take an EV in on trade. The local Ford dealer has a sign on their front door that states they will not take your EV as a trade on a new or used car. I was in having a car serviced and talked to a salesman and he confirmed they won't take them. The joke was that you could buy a new Mach-E from him today but he won't take it back on trade tomorrow. If that doesn't tell you everything you need to know then I don't know what will.

Personally, I feel the EV bubble is going to pop. I don't think the market is completely dead as there will continue to be those that think they are saving the planet by owning an EV but it's pretty obvious that gas electric or even diesel electric hybrids are the future. With all of the battery plants being built they will need to justify them while finding a way to actually sell cars. You get all the benefits of electric without the downside of limited range.

Which brings me to my last point. On my way home yesterday, I looked down and was a touch under a half a tank so I pulled into the gas station where no one was waiting, filled up and was on my way with 520 miles of range in 5 mins. The only time EV's are going to become main stream is when you can pull up, plug in and drive off in under 10 mins with 300+ miles of range. I personally will never own one.

Your last point is the issue. There is no way a bunch of vehicles could all charge at 1000's of amps each to top up their battery in a reasonable time. The infrastructure is not there and the battery technology is not yet possible at a reasonable price.
Where the tech goes, and at the moment I'd agree that hybrid, although complicated is the way to go, where that ends up, I don't know. There is no clear direction other than away from fossil fuels. Our governments have not dictated a clear path, which is their job.......
And I love the sound of a V8.

 

[FredA]

Our governments have not dictated a clear path, which is their job.......

What do they know????
Seems the market and auto manufacturers need to determine the path.
Not some performative hacks in Washington who barely got their GED.

 

[darrenf]

To add insult to injury, there are a number of dealerships across the country and even some near me that will not take an EV in on trade. The local Ford dealer has a sign on their front door that states they will not take your EV as a trade on a new or used car. I was in having a car serviced and talked to a salesman and he confirmed they won't take them. The joke was that you could buy a new Mach-E from him today but he won't take it back on trade tomorrow. If that doesn't tell you everything you need to know then I don't know what will.

It does tell me everything I need to know. That those dealers are idiots that won't be in business 10 years from now.

 

[FredA]

That those dealers are idiots that won't be in business 10 years from now.

Seems prudent to me - If they take in lemons that won't move off their lot they won't last that long.

 

[jderimig]

What do they know????
Seems the market and auto manufacturers need to determine the path.
Not some performative hacks in Washington who barely got their GED.

WSJ: The Electric-Vehicle Cheating Scandal​

2024-01-16

A government rule makes them look nearly seven times as efficient as they are.​

It’s hard to think of a worse environmental scandal in recent years than Volkswagen’s 2015 diesel-emissions cheating. The German automaker was rightly pursued by regulators, enforcement agencies and class-action lawyers.
The scandal ended up costing Volkswagen an estimated $33 billion in fines... regulators punished carmakers that had cut corners and misled the public. But when it comes to electric cars, the government has a cheating scandal of its own. That scandal, grabbing far fewer headlines, is buried deep in the Federal Register—on page 36,987 of volume 65.
...under an Energy Department rule, carmakers can arbitrarily multiply the efficiency of electric cars by 6.67. This means that although a 2022 Tesla Model Y tests at the equivalent of about 65 miles per gallon in a laboratory (roughly the same as a hybrid), it is counted as having an absurdly high compliance value of 430 mpg. That number has no basis in reality or law.
...After environmental groups pointed out the illegality of this charade, the Energy Department proposed eliminating the 6.67 multiplier for electric cars, recognizing that the number “lacks legal support” and has “no basis.” Carmakers have panicked and asked the Biden administration to delay any return to legal or engineering reality....

 

[Donnager]

How large are those large portable tanks? Because...

If you need to fill a substantial number of cars with enough gas to get even 100 miles away, it's an awful lot of gas. That 5-gallon can in the police car might get my minivan 100 miles. Or perhaps 2-3 Priuses. If there are several hundred cars by the side of the road, that's going to take a non-trivial amount of time. Yes, it probably would be faster than EVs, but probably not as much faster as you're implying. There is still a logistics chain to establish.

I suppose it doesn't really matter what causes the gas station closures if there's no gas available for 2-5 days after a major storm. Let's also not forget that the people preparing for a storm tend to buy a lot of gas, which can run stations dry even before the storm hits. And sometimes it takes a while to recover, even from a non-hurricane storm. Take this case in FL for example. There were widespread gas shortages a week after a relatively local storm, and the state was expecting shortages to continue for another week.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/south-florida-no-gas-fuel-supply-issues-fort-lauderdale-miami/
Anyone with an electric car in those circumstances would be happily charging as normal while the ICE cars circle looking for a gas station that still has gas.

Again, I'm not saying that EVs are perfect. Or that there aren't complications. I'm saying that it's not as simple as "ICE cars are better in cold/hurricanes/other natural disaster."

If that's the conclusion you draw.....

ICE cars/trucks have had 100 years of learning to address harsh climates........And they do address those, evidenced by the presence of food at grocery stores in winter.

You really need to do a 36-48 hour evac drive bound by hurricane traffic from Mobile to Memphis to cement your beliefs. My wife made this trip in a Mazda, with an ICE, and it took almost two days of travel due to evac traffic.

How many supercharger stations do you believe are in Shubuta or Scooba MS?

 

[Back_at_it]

It does tell me everything I need to know. That those dealers are idiots that won't be in business 10 years from now.

Possibly, but for right now they are trying to stay in business. With the various manufactures forcing dealers to take EV's and holding deliveries of ICE cars, dealerships are just trying to survive.

My local dealer had 15 new Lightings and two full rows of the Mach-E and hadn't sold one in over a month and they are asking well below sticker. In the meantime, they can't keep normal F150's, Raptors or Broncos in stock. That tells me what the market wants even at our grossly inflated gas prices here.