Can HPR survive with $100 J motors?

[KenECoyote]

And just like that, the universe has decided that we are having sausage muffins with egg, and coffee for breakfast at TWA in a few weeks. We shall produce many a fart at Bong on February 11th. Careful with the degassing though, in case you have one in the chamber!

Methane powered rockets...

 

[shockie]

Sure, HPR will survive with $100 J motors; until all the old white men that can afford them , slowly but surely die off. Say 10 to 20 years max?

Now of course by then that $100 J motor will be $250.

This all assumes that people will still be here then. It's 50/50 in my estimation.

 

[shockie]

The first time I heard that was nearly 20 years ago and it was @ksaves2. I've only heard it a few times ever since.
As I understand it, the reasoning is that L2 is the first certification level that requires learning the safety rules (including some regulations) and has a test to document that knowledge. We don't test at the L1 level, probably to dangle the hook.

Can I ask a pertinent question?

How does one transport over public highways, sugar rocket motors, when it's my understanding that KNO3 + Sugar is considered an explosive by the BATFE? You know, the line about potassium nitrate explosive mixtures?

 

[Steve Shannon]

Can I ask a pertinent question?

How does one transport over public highways, sugar rocket motors, when it's my understanding that KNO3 + Sugar is considered an explosive by the BATFE? You know, the line about potassium nitrate explosive mixtures?

First, why do you believe any sugar + KNO3 mixture is an explosive mixture?

I have no idea what position the ATF would take and I'm not an expert on transportation laws.

 

[prfesser]

Can I ask a pertinent question?

How does one transport over public highways, sugar rocket motors, when it's my understanding that KNO3 + Sugar is considered an explosive by the BATFE? You know, the line about potassium nitrate explosive mixtures?

"Potassium nitrate explosive mixtures" is indeed in the list of BATFE regulated materials. Unfortunately.

It is nonetheless the most stupid, nonscientific way of describing such mixtures. Their list is absolutely rife with such terms. BATFE could, with equal logic, deem that "pickle juice explosive mixtures" are regulated. That's the kind of thing they do.

If you think about it, if something is in fact an explosive mixture it doesn't matter one whit what's in it. They COULD simply say "explosive mixtures" but throwing in KNO3 (or any other oxidizer) means that they can prosecute an individual for possessing a mixture containing KNO3.

I do wonder when they'll prosecute someone for possessing Sensodyne toothpaste. Check the label.

Terry
...who is absolutely LIVID about government entities that throw logic and science out the window, in the name of increased power.

 

[bad_idea]

Can I ask a pertinent question?

How does one transport over public highways, sugar rocket motors, when it's my understanding that KNO3 + Sugar is considered an explosive by the BATFE? You know, the line about potassium nitrate explosive mixtures?

ATF does exempt motors under 62.5g of propellant, so there is that.

First, why do you believe any sugar + KNO3 mixture is an explosive mixture?

The wording of the APCP exemption in the explosives regulations is pretty telling:

"Ammonium perchlorate explosive mixtures (excluding ammonium perchlorate composite propellant (APCP))."

The list names "explosive mixtures" with other oxidizers: "Ammonium nitrate explosive mixtures," "Potassium nitrate explosive mixtures," etc. It seems likely from that and from their definition of a low explosive as something that can deflagrate under pressure that they would consider any propellant mixture with an oxidizer named in the list to be an explosive until slapped down otherwise.

Maybe they need to be sued again.

 

[Steve Shannon]

ATF does exempt motors under 62.5g of propellant, so there is that.

The wording of the APCP exemption in the explosives regulations is pretty telling:

"Ammonium perchlorate explosive mixtures (excluding ammonium perchlorate composite propellant (APCP))."

The list names "explosive mixtures" with other oxidizers: "Ammonium nitrate explosive mixtures," "Potassium nitrate explosive mixtures," etc. It seems likely from that and from their definition of a low explosive as something that can deflagrate under pressure that they would consider any propellant mixture with an oxidizer named in the list to be an explosive until slapped down otherwise.

Maybe they need to be sued again.

I would hope that if manufacturers decided to make motors other than APCP we could talk to ATF and come up with some kind of burn rate criteria, similar to what Judge Walton discussed.
But I really don’t know.

 

[shockie]

First, why do you believe any sugar + KNO3 mixture is an explosive mixture?

I have no idea what position the ATF would take and I'm not an expert on transportation laws.

Steve, I don't believe that sugar rocket motors are any more explosive than APCP motors. I do believe that they can both Cato. Cato is just an euphemism for explode.

When I used to work in IT back in the 80's and 90's as a Tech Support Analyst, I would say a job just blew up. The correct terminology was that job ABEND(ed), which meant an abnormal termination of the job.

The only reason I even asked was , the Wikipedia article on Rocket Candy states, "In the United States, rocket candy motors are legal to make, but illegal to transport without a low explosives users permit".

Has the BATFE ever officially decreed that?

 

[StreuB1]

"Potassium nitrate explosive mixtures" is indeed in the list of BATFE regulated materials. Unfortunately.

It is nonetheless the most stupid, nonscientific way of describing such mixtures. Their list is absolutely rife with such terms. BATFE could, with equal logic, deem that "pickle juice explosive mixtures" are regulated. That's the kind of thing they do.

If you think about it, if something is in fact an explosive mixture it doesn't matter one whit what's in it. They COULD simply say "explosive mixtures" but throwing in KNO3 (or any other oxidizer) means that they can prosecute an individual for possessing a mixture containing KNO3.

I do wonder when they'll prosecute someone for possessing Sensodyne toothpaste. Check the label.

Terry
...who is absolutely LIVID about government entities that throw logic and science out the window, in the name of increased power.

Government entities are a funny thing....

 

[AeroTech]

Here you go. Potassium and ammonium nitrates are both on the list (note that "explosive mixtures" seems to mean "burns fast under pressure" as far as the ATF is concerned, with the exception of AP, and that only due to the lawsuit, so pretty much any useful solid rocket fuel is going to be considered explosive if the oxidizer makes the list, at least unless ATF is sued again).

Interestingly, ammonium dinitramide - commonly touted as a less toxic alternative to ammonium nitrate, with potentially higher specific impulse too - is not on the list. However I believe ammonium dinitramide is still hideously expensive, and also, as soon as it comes into common use in the US the ATF will undoubtedly add it to the list along with every other oxidizer.

ADN is an explosive by itself, relatively insensitive at room temperature but supposedly much more sensitive around 95 deg C where it melts. It is lower density than AP and has less available oxygen. However it would be a good choice for minimum smoke military propellants as there is no chlorine in the molecule. Last time I checked it was over $1000/pound, I have no idea what the cost is now.

 

[Steve Shannon]

Steve, I don't believe that sugar rocket motors are any more explosive than APCP motors. I do believe that they can both Cato. Cato is just an euphemism for explode.

No, and I wish people wouldn’t perpetuate that myth. A cato usually (maybe always) is a bursting caused by overpressure. That doesn’t mean that the contents were “an explosive.” Otherwise superheated water would be “an explosive.”

 

[NateB]

If you think about it, if something is in fact an explosive mixture it doesn't matter one whit what's in it. They COULD simply say "explosive mixtures" but throwing in KNO3 (or any other oxidizer) means that they can prosecute an individual for possessing a mixture containing KNO3.

I can make coffee creamer and flour "explode" pretty easily. It's probably not in our best interest to draw attention by making too much noise about their terms. Unless donors pockets are deep enough for another legal battle.

 

[jbsommerfeldt]

Trying to get back to OP
For newbies please don’t take this as a warning. Really this hobby is fun. And you will find that as you get into more expensive complicated rockets friends, clubs and vendors will help you and even chip in. However, EVERY SINGLE HPR newbie was told after completing lvl one, the LCO just announced “Welcome to be being broke”. You were duly notified of what you were about to get into.

 

[bjphoenix]

Lots of hobbies are expensive, some can be expensive or not so expensive. J motors are likely less expensive than a bass boat, or a motorcycle, and very definitely less expensive than horses or airplanes.
I'm on a limited budget so I am pretty content with black powder motors. I have some midpower rockets and one highpower rocket that I would like to launch again even if it is just one H or I motor a year. Otherwise I'll be launching a lot of B through D motors.

 

[bad_idea]

Last time I checked it was over $1000/pound, I have no idea what the cost is now.

Last time I checked (in the past year), it was around $500/pound at sample quantities so presumably at least a little cheaper in bulk. Still not going to move any needles in hobby rocketry anytime soon.

 

[FlyBy01]

View attachment 559432

Nice, now I know what I’m doing this weekend

 

[green dragon]

How many M motors can you get for two Taylor Swift tickets?

Got me .. but for what we spent for two IronMaiden tickets, plus gas and parking, we could get one real nice full up M .

All about what you want more with your ( limited ) extra cash

 

[Dipstick]

Welp, since I have this rocket to build and two L1000s to try set the CAR L motor altitude record...gonna build and fly while I can

Maybe my side plan will get cranked up enough to add some disposable income.

 

[GalantVR41062]

I plan to continue flying, I have a list of hobbies and look at time and budget for each the beginning of the year. I am not to surprised in the price increase.

I was thinking sense the termination of the NASA shuttle program and a vast stock pile of surplus AP did the manufacturers of AP ramp down production? Now the surplus AP supply is dwindling or gone and production has not ramped back up to have AP in excess for NASA Artemis and other AP motors being used to get rockets to space?

So now with inflation and AP supply/cost we are seeing a large price increase.

It is my opinion Aerotech and CTI could stop producing Hobby motors and still survive as a company.

 

[gdjsky01]

I think G's at HPR enabled clubs has always been the HPR sweet spot. H's as well (L1 certs)
BP? IIRC C's dominate.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I think G's at HPR enabled clubs has always been the HPR sweet spot. H's as well (L1 certs)
BP? IIRC C's dominate.

I like G motors at LPR launches when they have a G motor limit. Usually only a few fly at any given launch, and it gives you a chance to be the big fish in the little pond.

 

[charrington]

We should do something with cheaper motors. Like a highest altitude competition with an E or F motor, goal is to smash the current record since IIRC it hasn't changed in awhile. Highest recorded altitude gets a 100 dollar J motor. We should all choose a location and date to meet up and see what designs we came up with. Sounds fun to me. Maybe the rules can be a two stage E or a single stage F lol. I can see it in rocket magazine already. "Can these rocketeers go higher than inflation?". We just need a catchy name for the competition now.

 

[Initiator001]

Welcome back to BP motors, Boys . . . NAR Competition may be thriving, before long !

( Bruce Springsteen - "My Hometown" is playing, softly, in the background )

Dave F.

You just keep on dreaming that if HPR 'Goes Away' all those rocket flyers will suddenly become NAR competitors excited to fly 1/2A Parachute Duration models.

Not going to happen.

 

[gdjsky01]

You just keep on dreaming that if HPR 'Goes Away' all those rocket flyers will suddenly become NAR competitors excited to fly 1/2A Parachute Duration models.

Not going to happen.

truer words were never spoken. I would LIKE to compete. But all my life I have never, ever, felt the NEED to be better than anyone else. Just be as good as I can be. So I quit competition before I ever got started. Too many 'Big Time Competitors' spending way more hours creating rockets and GSE that I'd never invest the time in. So why bother?

 

[gdjsky01]

I like G motors at LPR launches when they have a G motor limit. Usually only a few fly at any given launch, and it gives you a chance to be the big fish in the little pond.

I just am recalling (correctly I hope), flight card stats from ROC-Stocks back when I wrote the launch reports.

A $25 G is, even in inflated prices, a 1/4 tank of gas in my vehicle. John's original title is still valid. Can we live with $100 J's? If the answer is 'yes' than this, like many other hobbies, becomes a rich(ish) person's hobby.

As an amateur astronomer I know about 'hobby costs' way beyond what rocketry costs. However if I spend $1000 on a telescope (which is not a lot), it will not burn up in 4 seconds. Or launching 10 J's in 40 seconds total.

I can afford this hobby because I bought most of what I have 6 to 10 years ago. Anything I buy right now is because I sold something. Can this hobby survive 100 dollar J's. IMO no. Because it will only get worse. I should revise that, the HOBBY will survive. Estes will keep on chuggin. I believe the HPR hobby will shrink. Which may cause an issue with CTI and AT.

As for the $5 cup at Starbucks... lets see... $5 x 30 days $150. Would I give up one Caramel Macchiato each day for 1.25 Js? Probably not. Because it is death by $5 a day. Not all at once. And go ahead. Ask your SO to give up his or her Caramel Macchiato so you can buy a J.

 

[teepot]

I think it can. What ever the market will bear.
$300 hotel room are not expensive. Been to Vegas lately?
I have a investment grade motors. They are worth more than I paid for them.

 

[DAllen]

My "point" is that what I said applies to ALL areas of the Economy & Society, not just Aerotech's employee's.

The "bottom line" is that, whenever wages are increased, suppliers, employers, distributors, & vendors all increase their prices to offset their losses and maintain their profit margins. They would never "freeze prices" and "increase payroll expenses" ( raise wages ), which undermines their "bottom line".

There is no "cost of living utopia" . . . Also, remember that, when income increases, so does income tax !

What are your thoughts on how to remedy the situation and how much, at a minimum, do you think each employee should be paid, in order to be able to afford the cost of living ? ( This will vary, widely, across the country - Hawaii vs. Mississippi, for example ) . . . https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/cost-of-living-index-by-state

Thanks,

Dave F.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UnnecessaryQuotes/

 

[BigMacDaddy]

That made me wonder, what proportion of model rocket launches are done at a sanctioned launch?

I bet it's a lot lower than what most people think. If you are flying HPR you are already outside the normal model rocket flyer.

A related question -- what percentage of people that buy/build rocket kits and never launch them... But that is off the HPR topic and on hobby health in general.

 

[BigMacDaddy]

Ok, definitely not an HPR guy and have only been to one club launch so this may be totally naïve.

Do any clubs buy reloadable hardware so that members can just purchase reloads and use the clubs hardware? Seems that if everyone at an launch has their own hardware that there is lots of extra hardware. I was thinking members could sign out hardware, club representative could oversee the member loading the reload, member preps / launches rocket, returns hardware, etc... (likely need some more process around that).

Clubs could actually sell the reloads as a way to fund themselves (and to keep refreshing hardware inventory). Getting access to a wider range of reloadable motors might be a nice value proposition to members. Might need to charge a subscription or membership fee. Not sure how many launches the typical reloadable motor gets but a shared / usage based model (instead of purchase) seems to make more sense than everyone having $ thousands in various hardware that gets used infrequently till the reloads are no longer available.

 

[Steve Shannon]

Ok, definitely not an HPR guy and have only been to one club launch so this may be totally naïve.

Do any clubs buy reloadable hardware so that members can just purchase reloads and use the clubs hardware? Seems that if everyone at an launch has their own hardware that there is lots of extra hardware. I was thinking members could sign out hardware, club representative could oversee the member loading the reload, member preps / launches rocket, returns hardware, etc... (likely need some more process around that).

Clubs could actually sell the reloads as a way to fund themselves (and to keep refreshing hardware inventory). Getting access to a wider range of reloadable motors might be a nice value proposition to members. Might need to charge a subscription or membership fee. Not sure how many launches the typical reloadable motor gets but a shared / usage based model (instead of purchase) seems to make more sense than everyone having $ thousands in various hardware that gets used infrequently till the reloads are no longer available.

One of the nicest things about HPR is the willingness to share hardware by those who have it. It’s not as club centric (most club monies go towards portapotties) as you describe, but we recommend to newcomers that they slow down and borrow cases until they really know what they want. Nothing is sadder than seeing a new rocketeer invest heavily and get discouraged the first time they have a serious and expensive failure.