ThirstyBarbarian
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- Feb 11, 2013
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I am now almost sure that this year is it.
Seems unlikely to me.
I am now almost sure that this year is it.
I hope you're right.Seems unlikely to me.
I agree. And now there is a new twist of the noose around our necks. Russia and Estonia have expelled each others ambassadors. There is a strong possibility that Russia is preparing to attack Estonia, which is comparably defenseless. Poland may respond by attacking Kaliningrad, and how NATO might or might not react could be worrisome indeed. Theater nukes I believe are in the mix for this.I also think we are already having WW3. It's an us against them already. I think Putin is like the boy crying wolf. He has brought up his nukes enough times that nobody is listening any more. He has to know that if he uses one in Ukraine that the full weight of NATO and the rest of the world would bring the Russian Federation to an end.
Estonia is a NATO member. If Russia invades, they will be starting a land, air, and sea war with NATO. Please keep in mind that this war would be Russia's choice. Nobody is holding a gun to Putin's head and forcing him to invade Estonia.I agree. And now there is a new twist of the noose around our necks. Russia and Estonia have expelled each others ambassadors. There is a strong possibility that Russia is preparing to attack Estonia, which is comparably defenseless. Poland may respond by attacking Kaliningrad, and how NATO might or might not react could be worrisome indeed. Theater nukes I believe are in the mix for this.
Latvia has downgraded its diplomatic relations with Russia as well, to demonstrate support for Estonia.
Russia just keeps stepping in it.
No independent nation can afford to let Russia dominate it, but that’s what Russia demands.
I think theres a huge difference between expelling ambassadors and war. Weve not seen any evidence of mobilisations, ultimatums or any of the usual diplomatic steps which lead towards war. I can’t see Putin embarking on a general war with NATO while his forces are spread so thin - it would be suicidal.I agree. And now there is a new twist of the noose around our necks. Russia and Estonia have expelled each others ambassadors. There is a strong possibility that Russia is preparing to attack Estonia, which is comparably defenseless. Poland may respond by attacking Kaliningrad, and how NATO might or might not react could be worrisome indeed. Theater nukes I believe are in the mix for this.
I'm over-the-moon delighted to receive your robust assurances and those of the BBC that there is no trouble afoot. But somebody, maybe you or the BBC, should tell the Russian ambassador to shut his trap. He has apparently declared war on NATO.I think theres a huge difference between expelling ambassadors and war. Weve not seen any evidence of mobilisations, ultimatums or any of the usual diplomatic steps which lead towards war. I can’t see Putin embarking on a general war with NATO while his forces are spread so thin - it would be suicidal.
Earlier this week the BBC reported some threatened military activity in N Europe. Russia was saying that it would strengthen its forces on the Finnish border by a division if Finland joins NATO. This is probably a bluff as (a) Russia probably can’t find a spare division to move and (b) if you look at the size of the Finnish army one division would probably get swatted aside in any conflict.
i have to say that I completely disagree with the premise that this is WW3. At the moment we have a conflict restricted to the geographic area of one country. The fighting has not spread, and is unlikely to in current circumstances. It does not involve direct fighting between NATO and Russian forces. Ignoring the usual rhetoric and propaganda, it currently shows no signs of spreading or escalating into a world war.
Russia’s top diplomat on Monday said the invasion of Ukraine no longer represents a hybrid conflict but rather a “real” war between Russia and the West – a troubling escalation in rhetoric that aligns with growing concerns that Moscow is preparing to lash out at new NATO support for Kyiv.
“When we talk about what is happening in Ukraine, we are talking about the fact that this is no longer a hybrid war but a real one, which the West has been preparing for a long time against Russia,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said during a visit to South Africa, historically an ally of the Soviet Union and a contemporary Russian economic partner.
The combative assertion serves as the latest escalation in Russia’s public statements about its war in Ukraine – and the consequences for its recent string of embarrassing battlefield failures and blunders. A top Putin ally said two weeks ago that Russia had extended its war in Ukraine to NATO as well, not just forces loyal to the government in Kyiv.
In order:I'm over-the-moon delighted to receive your robust assurances and those of the BBC that there is no trouble afoot. But somebody, maybe you or the BBC, should tell the Russian ambassador to shut his trap. He has apparently declared war on NATO.
From https://www.usnews.com/news/world-r...-a-real-war-with-the-west-over-ukraine-lavrov
Comment:
In my own extremely humble opinion, Russia has 100% ruled out all possibility to a negotiated end to this "hybrid" (proxy) war, and intend to end the war militarily on its own terms. "Good luck with that", as Jordan Peterson might say. At some point, they will involve Belarus, Poland, Estonia, Finland, etc. in the conflagration. As Russia is now firmly allied with China as well as doing profitable business with India, money is of little concern to them, as the sanctions have obviously failed in their intent. Sanctions having failed, NATO is now left with the responsibility to rescue its project/client from failure and right the situation. Failure on the battlefield cannot be tolerated. But again, IMHO, NATO is not currently well led, organized or funded, let alone alone of a common mind about what to do. It has internal stresses, at the very least. When the fun goes out of the fun and games, do we reach for the reset button? And do we now ignore the role of China in all this? Should the US cease preparations to confront China over Taiwan, and instead devote our lives, fortunes and honor to war in Eastern Europe?
That statement is functionally identical to statements made by Russians for the entirety of the conflict (if not before). At no point along the way has this escalated to a wider war. The obvious conclusion is that Russia is beating its chest with no intention (or and likely no ability) to follow through. At first, the chest-beating had some effect on Western governments. As time went on, it's clear that it's a boy crying wolf.I'm over-the-moon delighted to receive your robust assurances and those of the BBC that there is no trouble afoot. But somebody, maybe you or the BBC, should tell the Russian ambassador to shut his trap. He has apparently declared war on NATO.
From https://www.usnews.com/news/world-r...-a-real-war-with-the-west-over-ukraine-lavrov
Absolutely, good luck with ending the war militarily on their terms. They can't even advance faster than a few meters a day on average in one sector of the front.Comment:
In my own extremely humble opinion, Russia has 100% ruled out all possibility to a negotiated end to this "hybrid" (proxy) war, and intend to end the war militarily on its own terms. "Good luck with that", as Jordan Peterson might say.
Evidence? Sure, they've tried to involve Belarus in invading Ukraine, but Belarus seems to regularly come close and then back off. If they haven't done it yet, why do you think that will change?At some point, they will involve Belarus, Poland, Estonia, Finland, etc. in the conflagration.
Correction: China and India are profiting greatly from the increased trade with Russia. Russia is selling them oil at rock-bottom prices, at or near the cost of production. Russia isn't profiting greatly from that situation. "We're losing money on every barrel, but we'll make it up on volume!"As Russia is now firmly allied with China as well as doing profitable business with India, money is of little concern to them, as the sanctions have obviously failed in their intent.
Sanctions were never presented (by governments) as a means to completely end the war, certainly not in the course of 10 months. So I'm not sure why you think that they've failed. Also, I do think that it's important to save NATO's important projects from Russian aggression: rule of law, respect for human rights, and respect for (small d) democratic processes.Sanctions having failed, NATO is now left with the responsibility to rescue its project/client from failure and right the situation.
I am shocked, shocked that an organization made up of 20-some countries has differences of opinion about how to proceed! Why there is gambling going on in this casino! What evidence do you have that NATO is not well led, organized, or funded? Or is it just that the military minds at NATO are not dictating terms to the civilian governments? I see that as a feature, not a bug.Failure on the battlefield cannot be tolerated. But again, IMHO, NATO is not currently well led, organized or funded, let alone alone of a common mind about what to do.
Answered by Steve above.It has internal stresses, at the very least. When the fun goes out of the fun and games, do we reach for the reset button? And do we now ignore the role of China in all this? Should the US cease preparations to confront China over Taiwan, and instead devote our lives, fortunes and honor to war in Eastern Europe?
Yup, they moved it closer to midnight and in doing so they clearly blamed it on Russia. I just wonder why you don’t clearly blame Russia. You seem to think the rest of the world should acquiesce to Russia’s demands for more “Lebensraum.”Whatever you may think of my humble observations, what do you make of the top scientists and security experts who moved the "Doomsday Clock" to the closest it's ever been to the hour of our doom? Is this real, or is it just a random narrative that we can ignore, and shouldn't discuss with our friends, family or representatives in government? If it is real, then to ignore it constitutes denial, cognitive dissonance. To hide or suppress this sort of discussion seems like fear.
https://news.yahoo.com/doomsday-clock-moves-closest-ever-154817908.htmlTop scientists and security experts moved the "Doomsday Clock" forward on Tuesday to just 90 seconds to midnight -– signaling an increased risk to humanity's survival from the nuclear shadow over the Ukraine conflict and the growing climate crisis.
The new timing of the clock set by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is closer to midnight than ever before.
The hands of the clock, which the Bulletin describes as a "metaphor for how close humanity is to self-annihilation," had been at 100 seconds to midnight since January 2020 -- the closest to midnight it had been in its history.
A decision to reset the hands of the symbolic timepiece is taken each year by the Bulletin's science and security board and its board of sponsors, which includes 10 Nobel laureates.
In a statement, the Bulletin said it was advancing the hands of the clock by 10 seconds this year "due largely but not exclusively to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the increased risk of nuclear escalation."
"Russia's thinly veiled threats to use nuclear weapons remind the world that escalation of the conflict -- by accident, intention, or miscalculation -- is a terrible risk," it said. "The possibility that the conflict could spin out of anyone's control remains high."
Sanctions failed? The most significant sanctions only went into effect in the past few weeks.Sanctions having failed,
That statement is functionally identical to statements made by Russians for the entirety of the conflict (if not before). At no point along the way has this escalated to a wider war. The obvious conclusion is that Russia is beating its chest with no intention (or and likely no ability) to follow through. At first, the chest-beating had some effect on Western governments. As time went on, it's clear that it's a boy crying wolf.
Absolutely, good luck with ending the war militarily on their terms. They can't even advance faster than a few meters a day on average in one sector of the front.
Evidence? Sure, they've tried to involve Belarus in invading Ukraine, but Belarus seems to regularly come close and then back off. If they haven't done it yet, why do you think that will change?
Correction: China and India are profiting greatly from the increased trade with Russia. Russia is selling them oil at rock-bottom prices, at or near the cost of production. Russia isn't profiting greatly from that situation. "We're losing money on every barrel, but we'll make it up on volume!"
Sanctions were never presented (by governments) as a means to completely end the war, certainly not in the course of 10 months. So I'm not sure why you think that they've failed. Also, I do think that it's important to save NATO's important projects from Russian aggression: rule of law, respect for human rights, and respect for (small d) democratic processes.
I am shocked, shocked that an organization made up of 20-some countries has differences of opinion about how to proceed! Why there is gambling going on in this casino! What evidence do you have that NATO is not well led, organized, or funded? Or is it just that the military minds at NATO are not dictating terms to the civilian governments? I see that as a feature, not a bug.
Answered by Steve above.
Well reasoned and stated. Russia will not negotiate other than to buy time. Russia must be disassembled in detail. Her nukes must be secured, removed, and destroyed. Oligarchs must be stripped of their ill-gotten wealth. Russia must never again be allowed to threaten its neighbors, the world, or the species ever again.
Best way to accomplish this task is to keep full sanctions on her and her allies. When the people get cold and hungry enough, and enough of their sons and daughters come home in pieces in bags, they will revolt... hopefully, they will "French Revolution" the ENTIRE Russian shadow aristocracy (politicians, intel establishment, oligarchs, criminal organizations.)
We should ban immigration of ANY Russian or Russian ally for 50 years. Let them fix their own dumpster fire.
In fact, we should deport as many Russians, et al. as possible.
China is watching.
North Korea is watching.
Iran is watching.
If we falter in this mission even a little bit, the CCP, that fat crazy bastard in NK, and the "wannabe world enders" in that Islamic dumpster fire will NEVER believe another thing we say or do.
Baerbock’s remarks align with Russia’s view that it is not just fighting Ukrainian forces in the conflict but also the US and NATO. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov made similar comments recently, saying that Ukraine is “shedding blood” for a “NATO mission.”
The idea that NATO is directly involved in the war signals Russia has the pretext to launch an attack on a NATO country in retaliation if they choose to take that step. There’s no sign that Russia is plotting to do so, but the Western powers continue to risk dangerous escalations as they continue to ramp up military support for Ukraine and as the US is discussing helping Ukraine attack Crimea.
Beautiful view.Oh joy of joys, the female German foreign minister announces Germany is at war with Russia. Is this exactly what is needed?
https://www.newsweek.com/germany-says-quiet-part-out-loud-about-ukraine-war-1776593
If this forum so fervently desires World War 3 with Russia, then we are definitely on the high road. Congratulations, I guess we deserve it.
From antiwar.com:
View attachment 559516
Above is the view from my fishing cabin on Hood Canal. In the distance is The Brothers, a mountain I climbed in my youth back in the 70's. At left center is the northernmost pier of Sub Base Kitsap, where the greatest concentration of nuclear weapons in North America is said to be stored. Shortly I will be leaving all this behind to spend time in purgatory while my soul is judged.
Glad you like the view. You should visit me at my fishing cabin. Maybe we have more in common than we thought?Beautiful view.
Don’t worry, nothing we say here is going to be the straw that breaks Putin’s back.
I am curious what you think we should do? Just tell Putin to take Ukraine, but please don’t use nukes on the rest of the world?
Life’s too short to live in abject fear.
Is there any intelligence indicating that there is a Russian buildup of forces on Estonia's border?
Glad you like the view. You should visit me at my fishing cabin. Maybe we have more in common than we thought?
Yes. There was a significant troop build-up in FEB 2022 on the Lavian and Estonian border, which has continued through today. Loss of cooperation between Russia, Finland and Estonia puts Russian access to the Gulf of Finland at risk. There is significant distrust between Russian and the Baltic states resulting from the prior invasions by the Russians and Soviets.
U.S. officials were split on how to handle the Ukraine war, which started nearly a year ago.
Burns and Biden's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, "wanted to end the war quickly so they could focus on China," while Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin "didn't want to let Russia get away with destroying the rule-based peace order and called for massive military support for Ukraine."
I do not know why this was leaked. Other people's motives are notoriously difficult to nail down. The obvious is that this reveals the truth to the American people and to the world at large: Ukraine is losing the battle, neither side will negotiate, the US administration is deeply befuddled, and WW3 - or at least a regional escalation involving Polish and US ground troops - looks inevitable at this moment.So the question is why did this get leaked? Leaks are not random, they are leaked for a reason. Was it to put pressure on Ukraine? on Russia? I am not sure this leak helps Ukraine. Did the Russians leak it to a German?
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