The politics of incentives

[Blast it Tom!]

My solar power system is a 4kW system and cost around $9,000, which I had on hand, so I didn’t have to finance it. That’s after the tax credit, so I actually had to write the check for around $13k and then wait to get the tax credit. I think even if I’d had to finance it, it would still have been a good deal.

I have often wondered about these subsidies. First, the single working mom on night shift has some of her taxes going to my system. Second, as I very much fear with college, the presence of government support actually increases the prices. I had the same deal for my highly efficient furnace/air conditioning system. I wonder if you got $1000 off of a $10,000 pre-subsidy system, and then the price increased $3000. I guess I shouldn't think so uncharitably, but people are people....

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I have often wondered about these subsidies. First, the single working mom on night shift has some of her taxes going to my system. Second, as I very much fear with college, the presence of government support actually increases the prices. I had the same deal for my highly efficient furnace/air conditioning system. I wonder if you got $1000 off of a $10,000 pre-subsidy system, and then the price increased $3000. I guess I shouldn't think so uncharitably, but people are people....

In the case of solar, the price has definitely not increased with subsidies. The quotes I had 10 or more years ago were for systems that cost around twice as much as they do now, and those were for smaller systems that only offset about 60% of your usage. They weren’t designed to offset 100% because it wasn’t cost effective. Back then, our rates were tier based, so the rates went up in steps by usage, so the first block of kWh was at one rate tier, the next block at a higher rate, and the next was higher still, and so on. Solar power was more expensive than the lowest tiers, so they were designed to only offset the highest tiers. Now they are designed to offset the whole usage because solar is cheaper than any of the rates. Now our local rate structure has shifted to time of use, not usage tiers.

 

[boatgeek]

I have often wondered about these subsidies. First, the single working mom on night shift has some of her taxes going to my system. Second, as I very much fear with college, the presence of government support actually increases the prices. I had the same deal for my highly efficient furnace/air conditioning system. I wonder if you got $1000 off of a $10,000 pre-subsidy system, and then the price increased $3000. I guess I shouldn't think so uncharitably, but people are people....

The solar tax credit costs the feds a total of about $700M/year, on total federal spending of about $6.8T, or about 0.01% of the federal budget. From a systemic level, I'd be more worried about the cost of the SLS than solar panels, and I like rockets. There's plenty of other places in the federal government where billions disappears into the ether with little tangible benefit.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

So this is interesting. I said my last true up bill was for $200 or so. I might be misremembering it, or that could have been for my very first true up back when the meter was broken and only crediting me half the electricity I was sending to the grid. I just checked, and this month is my current true up bill. So here is the net metering record for the year with the total true up at the bottom.



So that’s the total I paid for electricity in the past year. $106. As I mentioned, in reality the bill is more complicated because the utility charges a minimum for electricity service regardless of usage, and that’s about $10 per month. That gets subtracted from the true up at the end, but if the minimum you already paid is higher than the net metering total, you don’t get a refund. So I already paid $121 in minimum charges, and I don’t get the $15 back. Those bastards! Anyway, at least for last year, my system was sized almost exactly right.

 

[jderimig]

So this is interesting. I said my last true up bill was for $200 or so. I might be misremembering it, or that could have been for my very first true up back when the meter was broken and only crediting me half the electricity I was sending to the grid. I just checked, and this month is my current true up bill. So here is the net metering record for the year with the total true up at the bottom.

View attachment 516861

So that’s the total I paid for electricity in the past year. $106. As I mentioned, in reality the bill is more complicated because the utility charges a minimum for electricity service regardless of usage, and that’s about $10 per month. That gets subtracted from the true up at the end, but if the minimum you already paid is higher than the net metering total, you don’t get a refund. So I already paid $121 in minimum charges, and I don’t get the $15 back. Those bastards! Anyway, at least for last year, my system was sized almost exactly right.

Wow nice! I wish there was sunshine here, I don't think I have paid less than $106 per month for electrons. Now that I am retiring my salt water aquariums that may change.

On a $9000 investment I would need to save about $720 year to make the investment make sense. I don't think I could get that return on Ohio solar radiation though.

 

[teepot]

All we need is to organize 100,000 or so Californians to move to Wyoming, and we could completely take over that state.

That's what happened here. The Californians moved to Clark county where Vegas is. Now the state has changed hands because there are more people in Vegas that the rest of the whole state. Clark county controls the whole state even though the rest of the state votes differently.

 

[boatgeek]

That's what happened here. The Californians moved to Clark county where Vegas is. Now the state has changed hands because there are more people in Vegas that the rest of the whole state. Clark county controls the whole state even though the rest of the state votes differently.

Square miles don't vote. People vote. If 50% of the state lives in Clark County, then it *should* control the whole state. Democracy, yo.

 

[boatgeek]

Wow nice! I wish there was sunshine here, I don't think I have paid less than $106 per month for electrons. Now that I am retiring my salt water aquariums that may change.

On a $9000 investment I would need to save about $720 year to make the investment make sense. I don't think I could get that return on Ohio solar radiation though.

What are your electric rates, and what was the $/kW (after tax credits) for the installation they quoted you? Out here is rainy Seattle (also north of you), 1 kW of installed panel facing south or west generates ~1 MWh per year. We benefit from helpful weather patterns, with very sunny Julys and Augusts with 14+ hours of sunlight near the solstice. YMMV depending on shade, roof angle, etc.

 

[Titan II]

That's what happened here. The Californians moved to Clark county where Vegas is. Now the state has changed hands because there are more people in Vegas that the rest of the whole state. Clark county controls the whole state even though the rest of the state votes differently.

They are in the process of destroying Reno and Carson City.

 

[Blast it Tom!]

The solar tax credit costs the feds a total of about $700M/year, on total federal spending of about $6.8T, or about 0.01% of the federal budget. From a systemic level, I'd be more worried about the cost of the SLS than solar panels, and I like rockets. There's plenty of other places in the federal government where billions disappears into the ether with little tangible benefit.

Good point. It's just the constant jiggling with things that gets me. It's like I bellyached somewhere else on here, I am no tycoon, just a regular old retired engineer, nothing more than a 401k and HSA and a little private savings in a mutual fund and my tax return went 9 schedule and 14 pages!
And, like I said, I suspect the incentives get eaten by the suppliers, not us. It may be small here and small there but it's like death by a thousand cuts. Speaking of moon rockets, $1 million in singles would be just a few feet short of the height of the Saturn V. Our national debt in the same terms would go to the moon about 5 times... I 've lost track...

Edited to add: Yeah, I had to look... $3.8 trillion for one pile of singles to the moon, assuming a Lunar distance of 240,000 miles. So yeah, right now we're at about what? Nearly 8 piles of singles to the moon?

 

[rharshberger]

Good point. It's just the constant jiggling with things that gets me. It's like I bellyached somewhere else on here, I am no tycoon, just a regular old retired engineer, nothing more than a 401k and HSA and a little private savings in a mutual fund and my tax return went 9 schedule and 14 pages!
And, like I said, I suspect the incentives get eaten by the suppliers, not us. It may be small here and small there but it's like death by a thousand cuts. Speaking of moon rockets, $1 million in singles would be just a few feet short of the height of the Saturn V. Our national debt in the same terms would go to the moon about 5 times... I 've lost track...

Edited to add: Yeah, I had to look... $3.8 trillion for one pile of singles to the moon, assuming a Lunar distance of 240,000 miles. So yeah, right now we're at about what? Nearly 8 piles of singles to the moon?

And those singles are not laid end to end.....

 

[boatgeek]

Good point. It's just the constant jiggling with things that gets me. It's like I bellyached somewhere else on here, I am no tycoon, just a regular old retired engineer, nothing more than a 401k and HSA and a little private savings in a mutual fund and my tax return went 9 schedule and 14 pages!
And, like I said, I suspect the incentives get eaten by the suppliers, not us. It may be small here and small there but it's like death by a thousand cuts. Speaking of moon rockets, $1 million in singles would be just a few feet short of the height of the Saturn V. Our national debt in the same terms would go to the moon about 5 times... I 've lost track...

Edited to add: Yeah, I had to look... $3.8 trillion for one pile of singles to the moon, assuming a Lunar distance of 240,000 miles. So yeah, right now we're at about what? Nearly 8 piles of singles to the moon?

So I'm not unbiased here, but I think that the energy efficiency incentives are a place where federal action really helps the little guy. You end up paying something up front for a tangible reduction in your monthly costs. I've taken advantage of that for metal roofing, insulation, and solar panels (twice). One message I got loud and clear from various public policy involvement is that it's almost always worth paying capital costs to save operational costs.

I hear you on the tax forms. I think the college tuition one is the worst for the maximum number of lines to meet their obvious goals. Also, while I appreciate being able to take a deduction for my college student (too old for the child tax credit), I'm not sure that the new dependent tax credit form was the best way to accomplish that. It makes me wonder how much time and effort could be saved with small rewrites of the tax laws. But that's a discussion for another thread...

 

[jderimig]

What are your electric rates, and what was the $/kW (after tax credits) for the installation they quoted you? Out here is rainy Seattle (also north of you), 1 kW of installed panel facing south or west generates ~1 MWh per year. We benefit from helpful weather patterns, with very sunny Julys and Augusts with 14+ hours of sunlight near the solstice. YMMV depending on shade, roof angle, etc.

I pay ~$0.11 per kwh. I priced the project with me doing all the installation. My capital expense was all components. Used the NREL calculator for my location to predict 6MWh out of a 5kw system per year. That's around $660 per year savings. I don't remember what my BOM cost was but I remember that the return on the capital was not competitive with other investment roptions that were liquid and not sunk like a PV system.

 

[Blast it Tom!]

And those singles are not laid end to end.....

Correct, stacked flat. I forgot to make that clear.

 

[AeroTech]

Thirsty,

I looked hard at putting solar panels on my 4000 SF Ohio Home (the one that is immune from the rampaging wildfires that seem to plague you). The reality is that they still are not efficient enough. The presentation was very slick. They had the roof of my home modeled and showed where the panels would be placed, and how much energy they would produce. I was very tempted. Until they got to the financial benefits part. The projections they showed were ridiculous. They show 3 curves, What you pay now, what you will pay in electric costs if you do nothing (meaning stay on the grid), and what you will pay with the panels. The assumptions of the future energy costs looked ridiculous to me. They were pressuring me to sign right then and there. I asked for the materials so I could do my diligence which they gave me. Armed with their projections I looked at what the Ohio Utility Commission showed the energy rates were at over the past 40 years. The growth over 40 years was about 1/10 of the ridiculous growth rate that they predicted.

So I called them on it at the next sit down along with some of the other inaccuracies in their business case. The reality is they couldn't defend their numbers. I further asked for local people that had their systems installed that I could talk to both about the installation experience as well as did the savings they promised materialize? I'm still waiting for that analysis and it's been over a year.

I like the idea of solar, that is, you pay for infrastructure and become your own energy generator either storing the power in a battery bank or selling it back to the grid. The reality is that it's an upside down proposition here in North East Ohio. As near as I could calculate the whole thing would have cost me $200 more a month to have the system installed. They basically sell you the system, offset it with federal tax credits and finance the rest over 30 years which is the life of the panels. So instead of paying the energy generators you pay the finance company. If that cost was lower than what I reasonably expected to pay, I would have done it. It isn't even close when armed with real data. Especially considering that panel efficiency degrades 3% a year. For some areas where it is constantly sunny, it makes great sense. If I lived in TX or AZ or anywhere in the south, I'd have them in a heartbeat. But here in Ohio, it just doesn't work. Someday it might if they can make the panels less expensive, their efficiency increased or the government pays to install them. Until then, I will continue to buy power from the grid and heat my home with natural gas, pretty much like everyone else.

Buyer Beware!

Modern panels lose about 0.4% in output per year. We've had our system nearly 8 years and it paid for itself in a little over 5 years. Then again, we use about half the energy to charge EVs, in which case the value of the power is higher (as a gasoline substitute) than the value in only powering your home.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Wow nice! I wish there was sunshine here, I don't think I have paid less than $106 per month for electrons. Now that I am retiring my salt water aquariums that may change.

On a $9000 investment I would need to save about $720 year to make the investment make sense. I don't think I could get that return on Ohio solar radiation though.

Certainly the weather conditions make a difference. And the local electric rates and the cost of the system all make a big difference too. It’s definitely working for me, but it might not work out the same for everyone.

When I was considering getting solar, I attended a free presentation by a program set up by my county. The purpose of the program was to connect people to the right resources to address their energy needs in the most cost efficient ways. And one of the points they repeated over and over was that the dramatic high-cost solutions are not always the most cost efficient. So for example, it is often best to do the smaller efficiency upgrades before the high-cost solar installation. That could be switching out the lights for LEDs, upgrading to more efficient appliances, and the big one is doing all the boring insulation and sealing work to cut heating and cooling costs.

They had a couple speak at the meeting who had taken advantage of the program a few years earlier. They had been paying exorbitant heating and cooling energy bills to keep their home comfortable, and they had been considering upgrading their HVAC systems and getting solar, but the costs for the systems were prohibitive. The county connected them with a service to do a detailed analysis of their home and found a significant number of insulation and sealing failures. Once those issues were all properly addressed, they found they could upgrade the HVAC to a much smaller system than they originally thought, and they didn’t need as much solar capacity either. Addressing the insulation and sealing saved tens of thousands on the HVAC and solar installations. And the ongoing energy cost savings were huge. Plus, the home was just a lot more comfortable than it was before.

We need to do that here. I know that we can make some big improvements. We didn’t do it before getting the solar power system because of timing issues. We desperately needed a new roof and wanted to do the solar at the same time. And the tax credits were set to expire, and it wasn’t certain they would be extended. But before we think of upgrading our own HVAC, we will definitely take care of the insulation and sealing.

One other aspect of the county program was that they had a list of participating contractors who had been vetted by the county to meet a set of standards. For the solar installers, they had all agreed to a competitive price per kilowatt limit. So it was a good starting point for getting quotes. We got bids from two of those installers, and we also got one from Sunrun through Costco. We went with one of the two we met through the county program.

 

[AeroTech]

What are your electric rates, and what was the $/kW (after tax credits) for the installation they quoted you? Out here is rainy Seattle (also north of you), 1 kW of installed panel facing south or west generates ~1 MWh per year. We benefit from helpful weather patterns, with very sunny Julys and Augusts with 14+ hours of sunlight near the solstice. YMMV depending on shade, roof angle, etc.

Here in southern Utah we get about 1.9 MWh annually per 1 kW of installed solar.

 

[FredA]

Now if they could just make the panels look good.
The WAF for covering the roof is very low.

Also - would really like to see micro-controllers take off. Partially shaded arrays destroy overall efficiency.

 

[ep29030]

View attachment 516387

I'm looking for gov't incentives to fly 98mm motors.

 

[jderimig]

Now if they could just make the panels look good.
The WAF for covering the roof is very low.

Also - would really like to see micro-controllers take off. Partially shaded arrays destroy overall efficiency.

Yes our HOA would never allow them.

 

[boatgeek]

Now if they could just make the panels look good.
The WAF for covering the roof is very low.

Also - would really like to see micro-controllers take off. Partially shaded arrays destroy overall efficiency.

Beauty's in the eye of the beholder. I may be in the minority, but I like how solar panels and wind turbines look. They're definite4ly better than the $2M+ gray box houses that seem to be the current fashion in our neighborhood.

 

[Peartree]

Honest question since I don't live in the Midwest and have little reason to know about tornado dynamics. Do tornadoes tend to form over open ground like dust devils do? If so, increasing suburbanization might be an explanation for the reduction in total numbers of tornadoes. I understand that once formed, they'll blow through towns/suburbs if the towns are in the way, but if they need 1000 acres of open ground to form in the first place, turning farms into subdivisions might reduce total numbers.

Nope. They can form anywhere.

BLUF - (Bottom line up front ) Tornados happen in mountainous areas too... It's really the atmospheric instability that has the most impact on the twirly bits.

Yup. I've seen them on hillsides in a forest. Well, technically the one I remember best was determined to be a "microburst" but the insurance adjuster had to come out in person to make the final determination, and that determination was based on the pattern of downed trees. Trees that all go in one direction are said to be from a microburst and a "swirlier" pattern indicates tornadic activity. I can't say I could make the distinction, but the fact that the adjuster could says that tornadoes in forests, on a rural hillside was a common occurrence. My father-in-law and I cut and hauled firewood out of that forest (just down the street from our home at the time) for a couple of weeks.
.

and the fact there are less 'trailer home parks'. They were essentially 'tornado bait'..

What makes you think that there are any less trailer parks than there used to be? The people that build them sure aren't going out of business and, at least where I live, there are a ton of trailer parks... and many of them have been there for generations.

 

[Dugway]

Modern panels lose about 0.4% in output per year.

I thought I was seeing the effect of my panels aging, and then 2020 was the highest production yet, with 2021 in second place. I guess this could be climate change contributing to clearer skies???

 

[Woody's Workshop]

The fact of the matter all comes down to one thing, and one thing only.
The World is over populated.
The Oil Wars have already started with Poopon going after Ukraine's to secure it's Oil.
Saturday night we had the only (very small, only open 3 days a week and only exists for skeet & trap shooters) break in, in years.
That same night people had reported 3 people dressed in the KKK uniform harassing people. (Probably Kids)
But for a small town like this it show's the crap is already starting in small town, rural America.
Corporate Conglomerates are continually taking advantage of the COVID thing to further there profits.
Creating shortages deliberately to prolong the effects of the shortages during COVID.
Greed...Is NOT Good for all of us.
When there is no more sheep, the wolves will starve.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Now if they could just make the panels look good.
The WAF for covering the roof is very low.

Also - would really like to see micro-controllers take off. Partially shaded arrays destroy overall efficiency.

Fortunately for me, the best side of the house for my panels is not visible from the street. I don’t actually mind the look as long as it is organized, but I’m glad mine are on the side.

My system uses Enphase micro-inverters and an Enphase “combiner box”, and that was a major selling point for me. A panel or even a portion of a panel can be shaded without bringing the performance of ALL the panels down to the lowest common denominator. And it also makes the system easy to expand by adding new panels or batteries without having to upgrade other equipment. The combiner box, allows a lot more modules to be added.

 

[smstachwick]

Beauty's in the eye of the beholder. I may be in the minority, but I like how solar panels and wind turbines look.

Agreed. You want to save yourself some energy/money and the most visible change you’re making is to put an expanse of flat dark-blue panels on your roof? Fine by me. There are far worse things that people can put on their property, and I live in an area where people sometimes do.

 

[jderimig]

Fortunately for me, the best side of the house for my panels is not visible from the street. I don’t actually mind the look as long as it is organized, but I’m glad mine are on the side.

My system uses Enphase micro-inverters and an Enphase “combiner box”, and that was a major selling point for me. A panel or even a portion of a panel can be shaded without bringing the performance of ALL the panels down to the lowest common denominator. And it also makes the system easy to expand by adding new panels or batteries without having to upgrade other equipment. The combiner box, allows a lot more modules to be added.

I had those inverters in my BOM. Great gadgets

 

[AeroTech]

View attachment 516906
I thought I was seeing the effect of my panels aging, and then 2020 was the highest production yet, with 2021 in second place. I guess this could be climate change contributing to clearer skies???

I agree that’s not a large enough sample size to see any degradation trend. Ours is similar since we upgraded from 36 to 44 panels in late 2016. We also had a couple of panels reduce their output by about 1/3 a few years ago (we don’t know if it is the panels themselves or the power optimizers), and that impact on overall system performance is in the noise level as well.

 

[dr wogz]

What makes you think that there are any less trailer parks than there used to be? The people that build them sure aren't going out of business and, at least where I live, there are a ton of trailer parks... and many of them have been there for generations.

I had thought they went out of fashion.. Like, they had their time & place.. but those who lived in them transferred to low rent or co-op housing..

 

[Peartree]

I had thought they went out of fashion.. Like, they had their time & place.. but those who lived in them transferred to low rent or co-op housing..

Some may have gotten pushed to the edges of the suburbs by taxes and land values, but I still know of quite a few around here that are thriving in the middle of urban areas, though some of them are a bit hidden from the main streets.