Economic assistance

[Speaknoevil]

Scary times !!!! I may finish the Atlas Shrugged series tonight so I can stay up all night afraid of where all of this is headed.....

I really hated it when they retired Taylor Schilling as Dagny after the first movie. I did end up watching the whole thing. The book was better. I thought the Fountainhead (book) though was far better.

 

[rcktnut]

This is wishful thinking .
All of the bill collectors still have there hand out with no grace period and if you own a bar in Illinois you no longer have any income period

I know wishful thinking. It all depends how long it lasts. I would think a month or 2 and most should make it, if much longer I don't know. If the bill collectors show no mercy, they won't collect anyway and what are all of those people with the businesses going to do if they "give up the farm."

 

[Winston]

Mar 13, 2020
Want to Help with Coronavirus? Donate to a Food Bank

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/donate-to-a-food-bank.html

Though canned food drives loom large in the charitable imagination, the most effective way to give to food banks is actually financially, not by donating your pantry leftovers or whatever you can stock up on at Costco. Food banks typically have special arrangements with wholesalers that allow them to purchase goods at a discount. The Atlanta Community Food Bank can provide enough food for four meals with a $1 donation, for example, according to its website.

The dire straits in which so many families are likely to find themselves should coronavirus spread more widely is apparent today in many supermarkets and corner grocery stores. Where many Americans have the means to shop and stockpile in case of quarantines, food bank administrators are expecting upticks in demand from those who don’t.

Food Banks Struggle as Coronavirus Crisis Intensifies
Mar 11, 2020

https://www.thekitchn.com/food-banks-covid19-23013912

My community of King County, Washington, is the epicenter of the unfolding coronavirus spread in the U.S. with 190 diagnosed cases as of this writing and tragically, 22 confirmed deaths. If you visit a grocery store in my area, you’ll be greeted with a lot of empty shelves. People are understandably scared and stocking up on toilet paper, dry goods, and provisions with the kind of vigor one might more commonly associate with preparing for a snowstorm or a natural disaster.

On its surface, this might seem like responsible behavior since the CDC is advising people in high risk categories to stock up on essentials, but while the financially secure may be able to amass six months worth of toilet paper and a year’s worth of rice, people who live paycheck to paycheck don’t have that luxury. They are forced to wait until payday to make their purchases. As much as they may want to take the CDC’s advice, it isn’t an option for everybody. This is where your local food bank could really use your help; they are stretched already, as those who rely on them face fresh stresses.

I understand what it’s like to be in this predicament. I was once a single mother living in poverty. Stocking up on essentials was impossible. I barely had enough money for food as it was. There were days I kept my eyes peeled for change on the sidewalk because I didn’t even have enough money for a day-old loaf of bread. Buying extra food or toilet paper was out of the question.

Not only is it impossible for someone living paycheck to paycheck or in poverty to stockpile items, they also have the added challenge of being unable to find essentials such as toilet paper because they’re being hoarded by the financially fortunate.

 

[BABAR]

Scary times !!!! I may finish the Atlas Shrugged series tonight so I can stay up all night afraid of where all of this is headed.....

The first movie was great, it went downhill from there.

 

[afadeev]

Just thinking ahead, when this is all past us, I'm confident all the businesses that are really hurting now will recover rapidly, and most likely overwhelmingly.

This is wishful thinking.
All of the bill collectors still have there hand out with no grace period and if you own a bar in Illinois you no longer have any income period

Agree completely.
I will take it a step further and suggest that many, if not most, restaurants, bars, entertainment venues, gyms, airlines, and resorts will not survive the 3-6 months of forced downtime. If you are monthly recurring cost overhead, and no revenue to cover it, you have a major problem. Larger businesses will declare bankruptcy, restructure, and/or get government bail outs.
Smaller ones will close.
In the interim, everyone effected will be cutting variable costs by laying off as many employees as possible.

Eventually, new establishments will replace the once that had gone out of business, once we achieve herd immunity among the US population.

The current focus of our response to this crisis is to alleviate over-subscription on hospital resources by "flattening the curve" (a very good idea, BTW). However, the more successful we are at spreading the hospital loads over time ... the longer the overall crisis time frame will be.

The current stock market valuations are reflecting all of the above.

It all depends how long it lasts. I would think a month or 2 and most should make it, if much longer I don't know. If the bill collectors show no mercy, they won't collect anyway and what are all of those people with the businesses going to do if they "give up the farm."

Try 3-6 months, on the shortest end of the expectations.
Longer, if we succeed at "flattening the curve" (looks unlikely at this time).

Anything that has collateral (cars, homes, businesses, equipment), can and will be repossessed.
Unsecured bad loans will have to be absorbed by the banks, thus leading to tightened credit availability for new loans, and/or bank failures.
Y'all remember how that goes, circa 2008-9.

It is what it is.

 

[Speaknoevil]

Now this could get ugly...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/politics/unemployment-rate-mnuchin/index.html

 

[Steve Shannon]

What about our rocketry vendors? Some of them have that as their only vocation. Now is a great time to make any purchases you’ve been considering or even to order gift certificates for next Christmas.

 

[Bill S]

What about our rocketry vendors? Some of them have that as their only vocation. Now is a great time to make any purchases you’ve been considering or even to order gift certificates for next Christmas.

Good idea. Even though I strongly suspect I won't be able to launch until summer (have no area to launch in so I have to use a couple clubs I joined, and they are cancelling events left and right), I expect to have a LOT of nice new rockets all done and ready to go by summer. Cross our fingers things have settled down by then.

Everyone always waits for either "someone else" or "the government" to do something about a problem, instead of asking themselves what can THEY do to help out. Sad, really.

 

[cbrarick]

Try 3-6 months, on the shortest end of the expectations.
Longer, if we succeed at "flattening the curve" (looks unlikely at this time).

Dude, really? What's your source? that's a ridiculous statement.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0318-sitrep-58-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=20876712_2

look closely at page 7. January 19 was the first large scale reports in China. Today they had 39 new cases throughout all of China
By my count that's 2 months. That's facts, let's stick with them. We don't need wild azzz assumptions.
Your statement - fear mongering - is the worst thing we can do. Congratulations, you are now a large part of the problem.

I have to spend my days talking people off the ledge because of this crap.

 

[afadeev]

Try 3-6 months, on the shortest end of the expectations.
Longer, if we succeed at "flattening the curve" (looks unlikely at this time).

Dude, really? What's your source? that's a ridiculous statement.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0318-sitrep-58-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=20876712_2
look closely at page 7. January 19 was the first large scale reports in China. Today they had 39 new cases throughout all of China

1. Chinese statistics, like Chinese democracy, are good only for infotainment.
2. Economic impact is driven by "social distancing" and "lockdown" policies, not the virus itself. The clock starts on economic rebound when those policies are lifted. That is, the time it takes to reach "herd immunity" rate of 60-70% of the population infected and recovered.

Source: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/
"Modelling available data, the team found that depending on the intensity of the interventions, combinations would result in one of two scenarios.

In the first scenario, they show that interventions could slow down the spread of the infection but would not completely interrupt its spread. They found this would reduce the demand on the healthcare system while protecting those most at risk of severe disease. Such epidemics are predicted to peak over a three to four-month period during the spring/summer.

In the second scenario, more intensive interventions could interrupt transmission and reduce case numbers to low levels. However, once these interventions are relaxed, case numbers are predicted to rise. This gives rise to lower case numbers, but the risk of a later epidemic in the winter months unless the interventions can be sustained."

More info and data here:
https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/how-long-will-the-coronavirus-pandemic-last/
https://www.vox.com/science-and-hea...-covid-19-lockdowns-end-how-long-months-years
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/16/social-distancing-coronavirus/

By my count that's 2 months. That's facts, let's stick with them. We don't need wild azzz assumptions.

You just made something up, and called it a fact.
Thanks for the daily dose of humor.
We all needed that.

Your statement - fear mongering - is the worst thing we can do. Congratulations, you are now a large part of the problem.
I have to spend my days talking people off the ledge because of this crap.

Please don't forget to inform the US Federal government, and the world's health professionals, of your insight into the subject matter.
Those poor fools are planning virus-mitigating contingencies that “will last 18 months or longer” and could include “multiple waves”, as per U.S. Government COVID - 19 Response Plan:
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthe...367f758bec47cad361f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

You clearly know better, because... you are you + Chinese statistics extrapolated to the US - Chinese enforcement methods.

 

[cwbullet]

Ir is better than a swift kick in the behind.

 

[cbrarick]

ok, so your sources are quoting other reports, already published without looking at the latest data. AND those sources are popular press.

so here's the latest from the World Health Organization
https://www.who.int/blueprint/prior...f_SoA_and_outline_key_knowledge_gaps.pdf?ua=1

interesting, some of their transmission models are based on Flu A & B. that's how little we know about it.

I don't claim to know more, just not gonna buy into popular press causing more fear.
models based on hospital bed utilization are of little use regarding overall spread of disease
and we still have to reconcile ourselves that it will never "go away" completely. As you will read, coronaviruses have been in animals for quite a while. Another will emerge
The model you present also doesn't take into account the effect of the development of a vaccine.

Step away from the ledge. It will be ok. Some of the smartest people in the world are working on it.

The best thing we can do is NOT over-react, STOP hoarding stuff and panic buying, and follow common sense precautions

Support your local businesses. Order some take-out at least once a week if you can afford it. Go on a walk, fly a rocket.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

 

[PXR5]

Sadly I lost my retail hobby store in 2008

So yes, buy hobby stuff and rockets, especially if you are shut in

 

[Bill S]

I have been seeing reports of docs in China/Taiwan/asia using older drugs to interfere withe CV replication. They don't "kill" the virus, but keep it from reproducing and gives your immune system a chance to catch up and kill off the virus particles... There seem to be a few different versions of the treatments, but they involve old anti-malarial drugs. One uses Zinc in conjunction with chloroquine, the drug ensures that the zinc gets inside the cell walls where it blocsk virus replication.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32074550/

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32150618/

 

[Speaknoevil]

I have been seeing reports of docs in China/Taiwan/asia using older drugs to interfere withe CV replication. They don't "kill" the virus, but keep it from reproducing and gives your immune system a chance to catch up and kill off the virus particles... There seem to be a few different versions of the treatments, but they involve old anti-malarial drugs. One uses Zinc in conjunction with chloroquine, the drug ensures that the zinc gets inside the cell walls where it blocsk virus replication.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32074550/

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32150618/

This is what I keep seeing... many statements as those in the second reference, "...immunomodulatory effect of hydroxychloroquine also may be useful in controlling the cytokine storm that occurs late-phase in critically ill SARS-CoV-2," yet there is all this discussion for those on immunomodulators like Azathioprene, as to whether to stop their dosing. I don't think anyone knows--it's all a crap shoot.

 

[BBowmaster]

My income is down almost 50% this month. My bills are down about 5% (gas is cheaper). My savings are non-existent.

Some bills will have to be postponed. Car payment? Nope, need car to work. Utilities? Need heat, water, and electricity. Food? Yep. Only place to cut back.

 

[kuririn]

Mitt Romney suggested a few days ago that a $1000 check be mailed to Americans ASAP for virus hardship relief.
Last I heard Congress is considering upping that to $2000. Hope a bill gets ratified and relief is sent out to those who need it ASAP.

 

[jlabrasca]

Last I heard Congress is considering upping that to $2000. Hope a bill gets ratified and relief is sent out to those who need it ASAP.

Weird to think of all of us crowding into banks to deposit checks while also social-distancing. I am sure they have taken this into consideration and there will be a plan in place, right?

 

[Steve Shannon]

Weird to think of all of us crowding into banks to deposit checks while also social-distancing. I am sure they have taken this into consideration and there will be a plan in place, right?

I use mobile deposit, using my bank’s app on my phone. I sign the check and the app allows me to take a picture of the front and back and click deposit.

 

[cwbullet]

First of all, the 3-6 months is conjecture and I would not use the Chinese model of "do nothing" to model the US response of any length of impact. The Chinese have much more densely populated areas than the US. The same is true for Europe. Ital has a population density of 206 people per Km and China is 145. The US is 94. That is a huge difference. We have some social distancing built into our society and culture.

We are weeks to months ahead of the Italian response and months ahead of China. If the models play out, it should be less of an impact in the US per capita. Let the experts work and save the criticism until we see the impact. If end up having bodies stacked like cordwood, then all of the forum and news experts will be correct, but I for one want to thank those that are our there working to make a difference instead of sitting back and criticizing.

As far as the check, I will gladly take it because of uncompensated time I spend planning this little real-world exercise.

 

[jlabrasca]

Never mind. Unwatching the thread. Stay safe.

 

[bibbster]

Coworker's brother list lost his job at Red Lobster. They told him if he wants a check, he will have to file for unemployment. Then they closed the doors.

Fear is a liar. Clearly the virus is an ugly thing, but far worse than that is the fear based decisions that people are making. Quarantine for two weeks. Good idea. Buying enough groceries for two months, a fear based bad idea. According to the CDC, the elderly and those already sick with something are at the most risk of not being able to fight off the virus. They also say that healthy people will likely not even know they have it and survive it just fine. The virus will not be our downfall, we'll do that to ourselves.

 

[Steve Shannon]

Coworker's brother list lost his job at Red Lobster. They told him if he wants a check, he will have to file for unemployment. Then they closed the doors.

Fear is a liar. Clearly the virus is an ugly thing, but far worse than that is the fear based decisions that people are making. Quarantine for two weeks. Good idea. Buying enough groceries for two months, a fear based bad idea. According to the CDC, the elderly and those already sick with something are at the most risk of not being able to fight off the virus. They also say that healthy people will likely not even know they have it and survive it just fine. The virus will not be our downfall, we'll do that to ourselves.

healthy people will likely not even know they have it and survive it just fine.

Actuality: Some healthy people will likely not even know they have it and will pass it along to multiple others unless they aggressively practice social distancing.

 

[bibbster]

Actuality: Some healthy people will likely not even know they have it and will pass it along to multiple others unless they aggressively practice social distancing.

Yep, just like we have passed colds, flu, and everything else for years.

 

[Steve Shannon]

Yep, just like we have passed colds, flu, and everything else for years.

Exactly, but this is two or three times as easily transmitted and has a much higher mortality rate. From the statistics: the mortality rate of flu is 0.1%. The mortality rate for Coronavirus by age is twice that for young people (10 - 39) and 148 times that for 80+ year old people.

AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old. (Confirmed cases - 21.9%) - 14.8%
70-79 years old - 8.0%
60-69 years old - 3.6%
50-59 years old - 1.3%
40-49 years old - 0.4%
30-39 years old - 0.2%
20-29 years old - 0.2%
10-19 years old - 0.2%
0-9 years old - no fatalities

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

 

[bibbster]

Yep! Now look at those same statistics for the flu when it first reared its head...and currently. I know the situation is fluid with this virus, but it should NOT have instated a panic. Like the flu, if your immune system is compromised, it could be bad for you. No offense, but if you are old and/or dealing with any kind of sickness, stay home. The rest of us should be allowed to function as usual. All this fear has tanked the economy, caused job loss, etc. Because of fear and ignorance, regular folks cant do their regular grocery shopping. Because of fear and ignorance, regular folks are losing jobs that they desperately need. I think you hear what I am saying.

 

[Steve Shannon]

Yep! Now look at those same statistics for the flu when it first reared its head...and currently. I know the situation is fluid with this virus, but it should NOT have instated a panic. Like the flu, if your immune system is compromised, it could be bad for you. No offense, but if you are old and/or dealing with any kind of sickness, stay home. The rest of us should be allowed to function as usual. All this fear has tanked the economy, caused job loss, etc. Because of fear and ignorance, regular folks cant do their regular grocery shopping. Because of fear and ignorance, regular folks are losing jobs that they desperately need. I think you hear what I am saying.

I do, but I disagree. So does the vast majority of doctors who deal with this.
Yes, we have to find a way to not kill the economy, but for the near future it’s irresponsible for “the rest of us to function as usual.” There will be a different “as usual” for the immediate future. Will it be as limited as California and New York? Hopefully not, but neither can it be “go anywhere, get together in groups, and ignore the precautions.”

 

[bibbster]

Continue to focus on the negative and fear and that's all you'll see. Focus on what the media is not reporting to you. The number of people who are actually recuperating from this virus. Again, fear is a liar and it has no place in my life.

 

[Steve Shannon]

Continue to focus on the negative and fear and that's all you'll see. Focus on what the media is not reporting to you. The number of people who are actually recuperating from this virus. Again, fear is a liar and it has no place in my life.

So you think that following government rules and paying attention to what doctors tell us is focusing on the negative and fear?
And you’re afraid of admitting to fear.
Okay.

 

[Speaknoevil]

Continue to focus on the negative and fear and that's all you'll see. Focus on what the media is not reporting to you. The number of people who are actually recuperating from this virus. Again, fear is a liar and it has no place in my life.

You know, I've actually tried to do that, but if you look at the Johns Hopkins data, it doesn't look great. Below is Indiana for example--no cases of recovery. Many states are like this. And if you look at the world numbers for recovery, it certainly is not exponential, so far it is flat.