Compare the date codes on your Estes motors with the ones in the MESS reports. You'll find that certain batches (date codes) account for most of the problems, and other batches are totally missing from those reports. My wife just bought two 3-packs of D12-5's and, unfortunately, their date code appears prominently in the MESS reports. I'm thinking of building a quick, simple rocket to test one of them and see what happens.