Coronavirus Outbreak

I heard about the drive-thru testing centers in South Korea yesterday on NPR. It's a brilliantly simple and effective idea.

mpitfield said:

Hands up if you are still in the "it's just another flu, what's the big deal, why are people stalking-up camp". Crickets

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Raise your hand if you *still* think that it's something that most of us are probably going to get, and you're still extremely unlikely to die from it.

Here’s a good article that explains a lot of the testing issues and changes being made to fix it:

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/13/trump-coronavirus-testing-128048

Many of the quoted sources are administration officials so it removes a lot of the politics of it.

My sister is a doctor and says the TP thing is all about comfort and control. If folks think they are going to be quarantined they want to be comfortable. And since the virus is a lot about personal hygiene, folks want to be in control of their comfort and hygiene at home. At least that’s one possible reason.


Tony

Mushtang said:

Raise your hand if you *still* think that it's something that most of us are probably going to get, and you're still extremely unlikely to die from it.

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It is not me I am worried about. It is my 90 year old grandmother, my 96 year old grandfather in law battling dementia, my patient battling xxxxx who's head is practically on my lap during transport, and my newborn being transported to NICU for any reason while we get them in and out of an isolette.

These fears are not unique to Covid-19 and I take precautions every time I take care of someone. Life will move on, but the world exists beyond me.There are steps we can take to protect others and should do so.

NateB said:

It is not me I am worried about. It is my 90 year old grandmother, my 96 year old grandfather in law battling dementia, my patient battling xxxxx who's head is practically on my lap during transport, and my newborn being transported to NICU for any reason while we get them in and out of an isolette.

These fears are not unique to Covid-19 and I take precautions every time I take care of someone. Life will move on, but the world exists beyond me.There are steps we can take to protect others and should do so.

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I couldn't agree more. My father and his wife are in their 80s, she's in very poor health to begin with, and I'm thinking it would be good to wait until there are quick and easy test methods available before I drive up to see them again - just in case.

I'm pretty sure I'm eventually going to get it but from what I hear the symptoms are highly likely to be a light cold at best or a flu at worst.

Speaknoevil said:

No, I really am wondering. I'm not totally up on the health-legal interplay, but haven't there been court cases involving deliberate HIV transmission? Could deliberate exposure of COVID-19 to those in the high risk demographic be considered illegal?

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So Fabio Wajngarten tested positive for COVID-19 after his meeting with Trump, and you're wondering if it was an assassination attempt?

Mushtang said:

Swine Flu
On April 17, 2009 the CDC reported the first case of Swine Flu in the U.S.
On April 27th the WHO declared it a pandemic.
On April 28th the first U.S. death occurred.
On May 4th the CDC reported that Swine Flu had spread to 36 states.
On October 24th President Obama finally took action and declared it a national emergency.
3433 people in the U.S. died.
....
More will get sick for sure. Unfortunately more are definitely going to die. Suggesting that our government did not do what it should when faced with a threat that was completely unknown, misunderstood, and the information from different parts of the world was conflicting, is just politics on your part and not an accurate description of what the options were. Also, hindsight is 20/20 so pointing out things that *could* have been done a month ago using today's information is not making an honest point.

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Not quite. The Obama administration declared it a Public Health Emergency on April 26th. As current vaccines were found to be ineffective, a crash program was launched to develop tests and vaccines and formulate a response. Although the 2009 H1N1 outbreak reached epidemic levels of infection early in 2009, it did not contribute to epidemic levels of pneumonia and influenza related deaths until October 2009. In the meantime, though, vaccines were developed and sent out. The later declaration allowed for isolation of patients and to push the vaccine after the virus came back in the fall, making it easier for U.S. medical facilities to handle a surge in flu patients by allowing the waiver of some requirements of Medicare, Medicaid and other federal health insurance programs as needed.

Earlier projections of deaths were much higher, and most give credit to swift action by the Obama administration. The after-action review lead to the creation of the Pandemic response team, which Trump has disbanded.

To suggest Obama did nothing for months is misleading at best and dishonest at worst.

gna said:

So Fabio Wajngarten tested positive for COVID-19 after his meeting with Trump, and you're wondering if it was an assassination attempt?

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If a person had malintent, they certainly wouldn't foil the attempt by making a declaration before infecting someone.

Mushtang said:

Raise your hand if you *still* think that it's something that most of us are probably going to get, and you're still extremely unlikely to die from it.

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That's what I think. But I also am concerned about my vulnerable loved ones who don't have as much chance of surviving it as I do. I'm most worried for my parents.

Mushtang said:

Raise your hand if you *still* think that it's something that most of us are probably going to get, and you're still extremely unlikely to die from it.

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Yes, I believe it will spread to all. In my case though, I wouldn't say "extremely unlikely" as I have a weakened respiratory system due to PE blood clots, messed up pulmonary lymph nodes due to sarcoidosis, and because of that am on prescription immunosuppressants. I am under 60, but other than that I'm close to being a "poster child" for COVID-19 victims.

The assassination thing is silly.

What is even sillier is that others who this Brazilian guy met with have been tested and found to be positive for COVID-19, but the president so far has said he will not get tested. He seems to be so stuck in reality-denial mode on this crisis that he won't even acknowledge the risk to himself, which seems really odd given his reputation as a germaphobe.

Experts say that if you have been in contact with someone who has tested positive, like shaking their hand or posing with them for picture, you should get tested. A responsible leader might choose to set a good example and model that behavior for others, but some leaders think they know more than experts and choose to ignore their advice. Whatever. if he gets sick, maybe THAT can serve as the example.

Hopefully, the new test I heard about during my trip and was announced today will be available rapidly. FDA provable is great, but how much do they have in storage and what it is production rate.

ThirstyBarbarian said:

The assassination thing is silly.

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I think you guys are taking my statement way too literally. The only one that seems to get it is shreadvector who referenced the Japan incident. The fact is there are crazy people out there that have in the past tried to cause harm to others, even to the point of death, via infection. With this virus, it is most effective in a target demographic of which Trump is a member. Simple as that.

heada said:

My office just announced that all non-essential employees (everyone but manufacturing and the call centers) should work from home until April 30th. 5000 people working from home for 6 weeks.

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Bittersweet

Speaknoevil said:

Yes, I believe it will spread to all. In my case though, I wouldn't say "extremely unlikely" as I have a weakened respiratory system due to PE blood clots, messed up pulmonary lymph nodes due to sarcoidosis, and because of that am on prescription immunosuppressants. I am under 60, but other than that I'm close to being a "poster child" for COVID-19 victims.

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Be safe!!!

I don't believe everyone will get it, but certainly everyone will know someone who gets it. A teacher in my daughter's religious school just tested positive; fortunately she worked in the preschool side of the building and none of us had contact with her. Still, it's getting closer. Our township's schools are all closed for the next two weeks at least, and pretty much every event of any kind has been cancelled.

Pretty great beer!!!

Zeke Johnson said:

.
I just woke up with a major headache. I think I have the Modelovirus.

View attachment 409045

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Mushtang said:

Raise your hand if you *still* think that it's something that most of us are probably going to get, and you're still extremely unlikely to die from it.

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What I heard was over 50% of people will get it in the US. However 80% will have mild to zero symptoms.

Michael Osterholm infectious disease expert.

Have a lor of family in Korea. What they're saying is far worse then what the media is saying

Today I saw true fear in a man's eyes because of coronavirus...he was pulling a skid full of TP out of the back of WalMart onto the floor. By the time he got to the empty TP section half the store was following him...I hope he survived.

What is the issue with freakin toilet paper? Publix has been out for 8 days. What are people hoarding it?

There’s no expiration date therefore it can’t go bad. I think it gives some a sense of security.
Not that it’s expected to happen but how you gonna flush the TP down the toilet when the water is shut off in the hi rise apartments some live in?

cwbullet said:

What is the issue with freakin toilet paper? Publix has been out for 8 days. What are people hoarding it?

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It’s the new paper currency

cwbullet said:

Based on my review, I think we need to do something to reduce the spread. The suggestion is that we would reach as high as 40% of the public infected if we take no action.

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Out of curiosity, why 40%?
I would have directed the same question to Markel who claimed 70% of Germans will get infected, but I don't think she is on this forum:
https://www.incpak.com/world/angela-merkel-70-of-germany-could-be-infected-by-the-coronavirus/

Given how fast-spreading this thing is, the running theory is not to avoid the spread (far too late for that), but to slow down the speed of dissemination. This way, we can smooth out demand spike on the health care over longer period of time.

Break for a little humour

afadeev said:

Given how fast-spreading this thing is, the running theory is not to avoid the spread (far too late for that), but to slow down the speed of dissemination. This way, we can smooth out demand spike on the health care over longer period of time.

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"Flattening the Curve"

mpitfield said:

Hands up if you are still in the "it's just another flu, what's the big deal, why are people stalking-up camp". Crickets

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Mushtang said:

Raise your hand if you *still* think that it's something that most of us are probably going to get, and you're still extremely unlikely to die from it.

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I'm firmly in that camp.
There is no evidence that the death rates for those below 50 are much of a concern.

That's not to say that some of us wont get nicked, but that the probability matches the fatal car crash rates for my age group:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/810853

I do believe it is prudent to avoid unnecessary contact with folks over 70, though.

Winston said:

Almost as fast as a pregnancy test.

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Let me go on record and predict a major birth rate spike 9-10 months down the road...

timbucktoo said:

I am still intrigued with the TP hoarding!

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cwbullet said:

What am I missing? What are people hoarding toilet paper? Can goods and water are more important (please do no hoard).

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TP and bottled water!
What gives?

The water is perfectly safe to drink, and Covid19 still doesn't give you diarrhea.
Unless, of course, you start eating your canned emergency food supplies, in which case, all bets are off.

On the other hand, I did bulk up on unreasonable quantities of beer, whiskey, and rocketry kits.
They may not look perfect or fly straight after the fact, but I plan to have lots of fun building them!

a

afadeev said:

I'm firmly in that camp.
There is no evidence that the death rates for those below 50 are much of a concern.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

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But of course the primary problem has *never* been that young(ish) people are going to get it and die.

Sad news out of California, a firefighter is reported to be in grave condition in an ICU after being diagnosed with Covid-19. We do not know where or how he caught it nor do we know about any comorbidities.

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/loc...s-positive-for-coronavirus-officials/2253159/

Still in Spain, coming back Monday. I finally found one paragraph of useful information:
>>
Travelers returning from impacted countries after the new restrictions are implemented on Friday must arrive through 13 US airports set up for enhanced screening. Returning travelers will need to self-quarantine for 14 days.
<<
So it looks like my screening will happen in Seattle, and they're just going to tell me to go home and stay there for 2 weeks.
Feels kind of lame compared to all the hype.