Coronavirus Outbreak

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Winston

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Transmissible prior to symptoms during its up to 14 day gestation period.

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD (24 Jan 2020) - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak

2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing...

3/ ... We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan...

4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that...

5/ travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are...

6/ ...critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that...

7/ a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.”!!!! #wuhanvirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #ChinaCoronaVirus

The Chinese city of Wuhan (epicenter) is set to build a hospital in six days in order to treat patients suspected of contracting the coronavirus. According to state media, the new hospital will contain about 1,000 beds:


 

K'Tesh

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I'm only going out for food... and I go late in the evening. Yantai is unusually quiet. It's weird being the only customer in a restaurant for over an hour.
 

Winston

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I'm only going out for food... and I go late in the evening. Yantai is unusually quiet. It's weird being the only customer in a restaurant for over an hour.
Maybe you already know this, but don't touch anything on your face while out and, as a habit, wash your hands thoroughly once home. Also, consider anything you touched while out, like the grocery bag and contents, to be contaminated. So, don't wash your hands until after putting all of that away. Previous coronavirus surface survival time:

Human Coronavirus 229E Remains Infectious on Common Touch Surface Materials

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4659470/

We report here that pathogenic human coronavirus 229E remained infectious in a human lung cell culture model following at least 5 days of persistence on a range of common nonbiocidal surface materials, including polytetrafluoroethylene (Teflon; PTFE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ceramic tiles, glass, silicone rubber, and stainless steel.

And a very interesting bit from that same study that shows all public door handles should be brass plated - how about requiring THIS by government regulation instead of, based upon zero statistical justification, requiring me to put a freaking transponder on my 251 gram RC aircraft!

We have shown previously that noroviruses are destroyed on copper alloy surfaces. In this new study, human coronavirus 229E was rapidly inactivated on a range of copper alloys (within a few minutes for simulated fingertip contamination) and Cu/Zn brasses were very effective at lower copper concentration. Exposure to copper destroyed the viral genomes and irreversibly affected virus morphology, including disintegration of envelope and dispersal of surface spikes.


I'd buy some 91% isopropyl and wipe down the exterior of everything I bought while out and get the isopropyl all over my hands as I clean with an isopropyl saturated paper towel.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hand_sanitizer

90% alcohol rubs are highly flammable [watch out for static discharges - W], but kill many kinds of viruses, including enveloped viruses such as the flu virus, the common cold virus, and HIV, though is notably ineffective against the rabies virus.[18][19][20]

Also, I wouldn't use my hands to eat anything.

Interview with what I assume is an unnamed (for obvious reasons) physician in Hong Kong. Best from 14:05 minutes and onward.:

 
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cwbullet

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Don't overreact. Deaths are high is the range of 12-17% but the risk is low in those under 50 and devoid of long-standing disease. Over 50 with lung disease, heavy smoking, heart disease, and immunocompromise that the highest risk.

To lower your risk, wash your hands and avoid shaking hands or touching surfaces in public.
 

Winston

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5 Million Potential Carriers Have Left Wuhan As Coronavirus Appears To Mutate Into "More Transmissable" Form - 26 Jan 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics...ers-have-left-wuhan-virus-appears-mutate-more

...the much needed quarantine and lockdown were far too late, because as Wuhan's mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday during a press conference, about 5 million residents had already left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday. As the SCMP reports, many of Wuhan's residents had already left the city for the holiday, while others rushed out after the lockdown was announced on Wednesday night.

As a result, only 9 million people were remaining in the city after the lockdown, with roughly a third of it, including countless cases of coronavirus, having already spread across China.

Meanwhile, in Chinese health officials warned the virus’ ability to spread was getting stronger, and in the worst possible news for China, Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of China’s National Health Commission (NHC), told a press conference that battling the outbreak had become especially complicated, after it was discovered that the new virus could be transmitted even during incubation period, which did not happen with Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome).

In other words, as many as tens if not hundreds of thousands of Coronavirus carriers quietly fled, and may have infected as many as 3-4 other people each, depending on the R0 of the virus.

“From observations, the virus is capable of transmission even during incubation period,” Ma said, adding that the incubation period lasted from one to 14 days. “Some patients have normal temperatures and there are many milder cases. There are hidden carriers,” he said.

As for the piece de resistance, Ma said also that the virus had adapted to humans and appeared to have become more transmissible: "There are signs showing the virus is becoming more transmissible. These walking ‘contagious agents’ [hidden carriers] make controlling the outbreak a lot more difficult."

To help tackle the epidemic, which has closed off 17 cities, Ma said that 2,360 military and civilian doctors and nurses had been sent to Wuhan, the city in which the outbreak was first detected at the end of last month. As the pressure has mounted on the city’s hospitals, the medical system has moved ever closer to collapse.

Many people who developed feverish symptoms were turned away by hospitals earlier in the week because there were not enough beds, local residents said earlier. Medical practitioners are also running seriously short of protective kits and are being forced to recycle goggles and masks. Ma said 2,400 hospital beds had been added in Wuhan, and the government was planning to add 5,000 more over the next three days.

Wang Jiangping, China’s vice-minister of industry and information technology, said China had the capacity to produce a maximum of 30,000 protective outfits per day, but that was less than a third of what was needed in Hubei.

Meanwhile, the hunt for the real source of the pandemic continues. China imposed a nationwide ban on wildlife trade on Sunday, as the outbreak was originally suspected to have originated at a seafood market in Wuhan, which also sold wild animals. However, a research paper published by medical journal The Lancet on Saturday said the first confirmed case of the viral infection was a person who had not been to that market.
 

Winston

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China coronavirus outbreak means the world is once again gripped by the six-year pandemic panic syndrome - 27 Jan 2020

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinio...break-means-world-once-again-gripped-six-year

Every six years, the outbreak of a disease sends the world into a frenzy. But we face much greater daily risks from seasonal flu, being hit by a bus, or being murdered – and the greatest pandemic cost will be economic.

As the world wrings its hands over the emergence of a new pandemic threat from Wuhan in China, I am reminded of the last time I addressed the subject – in 2015, during the outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (Mers) – and of my discovery then of what I like to call the six-year pandemic panic syndrome.

Almost six years ago, I was writing about Mers. Six years before that, there was panic over swine flu (H1N1) and, six years earlier, I was observing hysteria over severe acute respiratory syndrome. Six years before Sars, we had graphic photos of mountains of chickens being disposed of in efforts to snuff out avian flu.

I know I should not make light of something as awful as a global pandemic – especially since I only recently stumbled upon, and disposed of, the large stock of Tamiflu pills that I panic-bought in 2003. But it really does take a good pandemic panic to remind us of how badly we judge the life-threatening risks around us.

According to the World Health Organisation, around 3-5 million people become “severely ill” every year as a result of seasonal flu. Of these, between 290,000 and 650,000 people die. Amid this routine annual dreadful mortality, Sars in 2003 was invisible.
 

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One wonders if the virus would survive amongst all the “Made in China” products. Imagine the impossibility if containing it then.
 

dhbarr

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One wonders if the virus would survive amongst all the “Made in China” products. Imagine the impossibility if containing it then.
One doesn't generally worry about that, because viruses tend to live on the order of hours-to-days outside a host, not weeks.
 

Stefan2k4

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I'd buy some 91% isopropyl and wipe down the exterior of everything I bought while out and get the isopropyl all over my hands as I clean with an isopropyl saturated paper towel.
I'm not a doctor and I don't know anything about this virus, but dilute solutions of household bleach (Sodium Hypochlorite) are sometimes better at killing viruses than alcohol. Once a long time ago, I had a cat that had FIP, which is caused by another kind of corona virus, and the vet recommended using bleach diluted with water as a disinfectant to reduce the risk of transmission to my other cats. Anyway, bleach seems to be effective at killing a broad spectrum of pathogens, including viruses.
 

Peartree

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I'm only going out for food... and I go late in the evening. Yantai is unusually quiet. It's weird being the only customer in a restaurant for over an hour.
Newspapers today are saying the US is withdrawing diplomatic personnel, their families, and some private US citizens from Wuhan. I assume that our embassy knows how to contact you should they choose to recall US citizens from a wider area?
 

Winston

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PhD pathologist who specialized in toxicology:


Latest video (26 Jan 2020). Describes exactly why he has major distrust of data coming out of china:


----------

Soviet nuclear war joke: "Comrade, what should we do if the Americans launch a nuclear attack?" "You wrap yourself in a sheet and make your way slowly to the nearest cemetery." "Why slowly, comrade?" "So as not to cause a panic."

So as not to cause a panic? I would not put it past the Chinese Communist Party to be doing that here. I've added "(possibly)" to overly definitive statements in the following column:

Relatives Wonder Why Pneumonia Deaths Not in Coronavirus Tally
Families describe discrepancies between information from doctors and death certificates

24 Jan 2020

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relati...a-deaths-were-tied-to-coronavirus-11579915630

This Is How China Is (Possibly) Hiding The True Number Of Coronavirus Deaths
25 Jan 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/how-china-hiding-true-number-coronavirus-deaths

The problem is that even as China theatrically pretends to be so forthright about the extent of the epidemic - if only to avoid panic and chaos over allegations it is again hiding the full impact of the disease - it is (possibly) doing precisely that, and now we know just how it is doing that: instead of putting down coronavirus as the cause of death for an unknown number of Wuhan casualties, China's coroners and hospitals merely ascribe death to "viral pneumonia", case closed.

Here's how the WSJ describes this treacherous "bait and switch":

"A 53-year-old fitness trainer died on Wednesday after checking into a hospital in Wuhan a little more than a week earlier, said his niece. His family had expected the death certificate to reflect the deadly coronavirus, because as his condition deteriorated, his doctors told his family he was suffering from an untreatable virus in his lungs.

"Instead, it recorded “severe pneumonia” as the cause of death, she said. The relatives of two other people who died in separate hospitals in Wuhan this week also described similar situations, saying the causes of death had been given as “viral pneumonia.”

Why did the hospital do this? Because as the relatives of all three now dead people said, the deceased hadn’t been included in China’s official count of 41 deaths attributed to coronavirus.

And that's how China is (possibly) suppressing the full extent of nCoV's lethality, and keeping the mortality rate of the coronavirus artificially low.
 

Jim Hinton

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Hi Folks;

I'm just hoping that maybe, for once, the Chinese government is telling the truth and this originated by ingesting exotic animals.
What I think really happened is that one of their pets got loose from a germ warfare lab. I sure hope that I'm wrong.

Jim
 

Winston

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I'm not a doctor and I don't know anything about this virus, but dilute solutions of household bleach (Sodium Hypochlorite) are sometimes better at killing viruses than alcohol. Once a long time ago, I had a cat that had FIP, which is caused by another kind of corona virus, and the vet recommended using bleach diluted with water as a disinfectant to reduce the risk of transmission to my other cats. Anyway, bleach seems to be effective at killing a broad spectrum of pathogens, including viruses.
I agree. Diluted bleach would probably be best for disinfecting things since it is highly effective and not flammable, while as stated at the Wikipedia link I provided, 90%+ concentrated isopropyl alcohol wipes would be best for use on skin while keeping the flammability risk in mind. Bleach on skin will cause chemical burns and I have no idea if bleach diluted enough to not cause burns would still be concentrated enough to kill viruses.
 

Winston

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What I think really happened is that one of their pets got loose from a germ warfare lab.
The first and extensive article linked below has tons of interesting info on China's bioweapons program. I disagree with the certainty of its claims of course. Genetic forensics might solve the mystery... if that's ever applied. It's interesting that this is all coming only from India:

Coronavirus Bioweapon – How China Stole Coronavirus From Canada And Weaponized It
By GreatGameIndia -January 26, 2020

http://greatgameindia.com/coronavirus-bioweapon/

Last year a mysterious shipment was caught smuggling Coronavirus from Canada. It was traced to Chinese agents working at a Canadian lab. Subsequent investigation by GreatGameIndia linked the agents to Chinese Biological Warfare Program from where the virus is suspected to have leaked causing the Wuhan Coronavirus outbreak.



26 JANUARY 2020
Coronavirus may have origins in China's biological warfare lab in Wuhan

https://www.outlookindia.com/newssc...chinas-biological-warfarelab-in-wuhan/1717828

Excerpt:

In a July article in the journal Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, Shoham said the Wuhan institute was one of four Chinese laboratories engaged in some aspects of the biological weapons development.

He identified the secure Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory at the institute as engaged in research on the Ebola, Nipah, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever viruses.

The Wuhan virology institute is under the Chinese Academy of Sciences. But certain laboratories within it "have linkage with the PLA or BW-related elements within the Chinese defense establishment," he said.

In 1993, China declared a second facility, the Wuhan Institute of Biological Products, as one of eight biological warfare research facilities covered by the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) which China joined in 1985.

The Wuhan Institute of Biological Products is a civilian facility but is linked to the Chinese defense establishment, and has been regarded to be involved in the Chinese BW programme, Shoham said.

"The US has compliance concerns with respect to Chinese military medical institutions'' toxin research and development because of the potential dual-use applications and their potential as a biological threat," the report added.

The biosafety lab is located about 20 miles from the Hunan Seaford Market that reports from China say may have been origin point of the virus.

Rutgers University microbiologist Richard Ebright told London''s Daily Mail that "at this point there''s no reason to harbor suspicions" that the lab may be linked to the virus outbreak.


---------

GREAT book:

Biohazard: The Chilling True Story of the Largest Covert Biological Weapons Program in the World--Told from Inside by the Man Who Ran It

https://www.amazon.com/Biohazard-Chilling-Largest-Biological-World-Told/dp/0385334966/

Biohazard is the never-before-told story of Russia’s darkest, deadliest, and most closely guarded Cold War secret.
 

Winston

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CDC Says 110 Suspected Coronavirus Cases Identified In US; Public Health Risk Remains "Low"

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...virus-death-toll-accelerates-supply-shortages

Update (1150ET): Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the Director of the Center for the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), spoke on behalf of the CDC. During the press conference, she said that the US had identified 110 people who are under observation and being tested for the virus. While 5 cases have already been identified in the US, another 32 have definitively tested negative.

Though a vaccine remains elusive, the Messonnier said the CDC had developed a diagnostic test that can quickly confirm cases of the virus. So far, CDC researchers have seen no signs of "mutation" in the virus. If the virus does mutate, as Chinese scientists suggested it might, that could create problems for those trying to develop the exam. On Friday, a "blueprint" for the test was uploaded and shared with the world. All governments can now follow this blueprint to develop their own tests.

Right now, the CDC is focused on providing tests to "priority" states (presumably, Cali, Washington, Arizona and Illinois, the states where cases have been confirmed). But soon they will expand the program to supply governments in need.

The CDC has also uploaded the entire genome of the virus from the first two cases. From what the CDC can tell so far, the virus doesn't appear to be "mutating", as some Chinese officials had suggested.

Messonnier stressed that this is a "rapidly changing situation" both here and abroad, adding that the virus has spread to 16 countries from China.

Update (1030ET): Chinese state media have just confirmed that Beijing has suffered its first confirmed death from the novel coronavirus. They also confirmed 8 new confirmed cases.
 

Winston

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Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens
Maximum-security biolab is part of plan to build network of BSL-4 facilities across China.
22 February 2017

https://www.nature.com/news/inside-...tudy-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

A laboratory in Wuhan is on the cusp of being cleared to work with the world’s most dangerous pathogens. The move is part of a plan to build between five and seven biosafety level-4 (BSL-4) labs across the Chinese mainland by 2025, and has generated much excitement, as well as some concerns.

[snip]

But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, notes Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey. Tim Trevan, founder of CHROME Biosafety and Biosecurity Consulting in Damascus, Maryland, says that an open culture is important to keeping BSL-4 labs safe, and he questions how easy this will be in China, where society emphasizes hierarchy. “Diversity of viewpoint, flat structures where everyone feels free to speak up and openness of information are important,” he says.
Yuan says that he has worked to address this issue with staff. “We tell them the most important thing is that they report what they have or haven’t done,” he says. And the lab’s international collaborations will increase openness. “Transparency is the basis of the lab,” he adds.

The plan to expand into a network heightens such concerns. One BSL-4 lab in Harbin is already awaiting accreditation; the next two are expected to be in Beijing and Kunming, the latter focused on using monkey models to study disease.

Lina says that China’s size justifies this scale, and that the opportunity to combine BSL-4 research with an abundance of research monkeys — Chinese researchers face less red tape than those in the West when it comes to research on primates — could be powerful. “If you want to test vaccines or antivirals, you need a non-human primate model,” says Lina.

But Ebright is not convinced of the need for more than one BSL-4 lab in mainland China. He suspects that the expansion there is a reaction to the networks in the United States and Europe, which he says are also unwarranted. He adds that governments will assume that such excess capacity is for the potential development of bioweapons.

“These facilities are inherently dual use,” he says. The prospect of ramping up opportunities to inject monkeys with pathogens also worries, rather than excites, him: “They can run, they can scratch, they can bite.”

Hazard suits hang at the National Bio-safety Laboratory, Wuhan, the first lab on the Chinese mainland equipped for the highest level of biocontainment.




The central monitor room at China’s National Bio-safety Laboratory.

 

NateB

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We have several cleaners and types of wipes for disinfecting our work area and equipment. Bleach based cleaners are needed for certain pathogens, c-diff being the most common that we encounter. I want to say that alcohol based cleaners and wipes are effective on 90% of the time. Of course we don't always know what people have when we encounter them, so it is best be on the safe side. Obviously, we have gloves on at a minimum, but both cleaners are irritating to the skin.

For me the alcohol wipes are less irritating than bleach. I'm not a fan of the foam hand cleaners, I'll use them in a pinch, but they really dry my skin and make it crack in the winter. Soap and water are best.

Late last week, according to an update provided by our County Health Comission, this Coronavirus does spread readily and is not known to have spread from patients to providers. With patients being treated in the US, we will have a better understanding of the disease progression and potential mortality rate without worry about any Chinese propaganda.

How hospitals report cause of death is interesting too. In recent years I had 2 patients die from the flu who were both middle aged with no known health concerns. Both quickly progressed from influenza to ARDS and did not survive aggressive care. Either one could have been listed as the cause of death.
 

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Lysol kills corona virus... I wonder if the Chinese know what Lysol is...
 
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