Coronavirus: What questions do you have?

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boatgeek said:
It'll be worth checking back in a few weeks and see how flu compares to COVID-19 then. Washington has had ~75 flu deaths since October, and the season is starting to level off. In that time, there have been 51 outbreaks in long-term care facilities. The overall mortality rate for flu in Washington is about 1 per 100,000 cases (0.001%) per the state Health Department.

In WA, COVID-19 is a few weeks ahead of NY, with cases circulating for 4-6 weeks depending on who you ask. There have been 22 deaths over 162 confirmed cases* so far, many from a single outbreak in a long-term care facility. The spokesperson for that facility said that several patients went from no symptoms to death in a matter of hours. There are several other long-term care facilities that have at least one confirmed positive test among residents or staff. Rough estimates are that there are a couple of thousand COVID-19 infections in WA, most undetected.

COVID-19 appears to be at least one or two orders of magnitude more deadly than flu, and perhaps more infectious. If cases at two or three of the long-term care facilities with current infections blow up like the one in Kirkland did, we will pass the absolute number of flu deaths in a week or two. If (global outside of China) infection trends continue in WA (~15% increase in infections each day) and the WHO mortality rate around 3% holds, we'll be looking at passing the flu in total number of deaths in a couple of weeks.

I'm not saying that we all need to run in circles screaming and shouting over COVID-9, but it is definitely worse than the flu and we definitely need to take it seriously. Anything we can do to lower that 15% number will save a lot of lives. And that's before we even get to the really terrifying scenarios where hospitals get overloaded and medical care breaks down.

* Note that testing in WA is basically confined to people who have been hospitalized so far. There has not been widespread testing available to people with some symptoms but not severe enough to admit to a hospital.
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This explains it:

Look for a graph showing death rate vs. age group. The rate is .02% up to age 40, .04% to fifty, then increasing to 8% over 70 and 13% over 80. The reason that the death rate is so high is that the majority of cases have occurred in people over 60,.
 
In the above missive the key phrase is long term care facilities. Long term care facilities, by and large are populated by people who are either 1) Over 60 and 2) dealing with ailments that increase the risk of death if the person contracts Corona,. Those "couple thousand undetected cases" have to carefully analyzed by age, and general health conditions, especially if when fully detected, death occurs
 
WhiskyTangoFoxtrot said:
This explains it:

Look for a graph showing death rate vs. age group. The rate is .02% up to age 40, .04% to fifty, then increasing to 8% over 70 and 13% over 80. The reason that the death rate is so high is that the majority of cases have occurred in people over 60,.
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It's those damned cruise ships.

What possesses any normal rational person to think that staying in a tightly closed environment just for the meals, drinks, and music is a good idea?

Seriously.

Ships are notorious for harboring sickness and diseases. Ask any who spent time in the Navy at sea. You spend time on the boat, you WILL spend time in Sick Bay. It's a given.

The Army is not without its issues as well. I recall bunk bed and window protocols to minimize meningitis risks in boot camp. I walked a troop over to emergency sick call one night and was hospitalized for several days with "URI" (upper respiratory infection) and the other guy...an 18 year old kid from Visalia...died.

Distance, Mr. Towns. Distance.
 
WhiskyTangoFoxtrot said:
This explains it:

Look for a graph showing death rate vs. age group. The rate is .02% up to age 40, .04% to fifty, then increasing to 8% over 70 and 13% over 80. The reason that the death rate is so high is that the majority of cases have occurred in people over 60,.
Click to expand...

I hope I'm not misreading you here. People aren't exactly any less dead if they're old. There are roughly 35 million people over age 65 in the US. Running estimates were that 50%-70% of the population was expected to contract this coronavirus. Let's say 20% in the next year so we're not being excessively alarmist. If the death rate is 5% of infections for people over 65, you'd expect ~350,000 deaths in the next year. That compares to ~16,000 deaths from flu this season. Even if we're really optimistic about infection rates and fatality rates for COVID-19, flu is bush league in comparison.

WhiskyTangoFoxtrot said:
In the above missive the key phrase is long term care facilities. Long term care facilities, by and large are populated by people who are either 1) Over 60 and 2) dealing with ailments that increase the risk of death if the person contracts Corona,. Those "couple thousand undetected cases" have to carefully analyzed by age, and general health conditions, especially if when fully detected, death occurs
Click to expand...

And even if long-term care facilities ban kids from visiting Grandma, the workers there still have children and still have lives outside of the facility. They can bring the virus in, particularly if there are significant numbers of asymptomatic carriers. The more people outside who have the virus, the more likely it is to get into the long-term care facilities.

I really hope I'm wrong about this, but the numbers so far from other countries aren't encouraging.
 
BDB said:
One of my staff is currently being tested for COVID-19. She tested positive for flu, which makes me feel a little at ease. But is there a chance that this coronavirus could induce a positive flu test? I assume the flu test is ELISA based, and I know the current coronavirus test is more accurate because it is PCR-based.

So the question is....how "promiscuous" is the flu test?
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I think you have the tests current. I do not think accuracy is the correct word. Tests are evaluated by possible and negative preductive values along with specificity and sensitivity. These are dependent on true positives, false positives, true negatives, and false negatives. Both tests for Flu and Corona have a fairly low false positive and false negative value. I would trust their results.
 
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Mushtang said:
I've read this thread since the beginning but it's possible my question has been asked, answered, and I just don't remember it. I'm sure that's possible.

Is there any reason to think that someone surviving the Coronavirus wouldn't be immune to it afterward? I know that people get the flu again on different years but those are different strands of the flu. I'm just curious if someone does catch it and gets over it with light symptoms (as we're told many do) does that mean they can stop worrying about catching it?
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It is possible. Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that range from the common cold to MERS coronavirus, which is Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus and SARs, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus. The Coronaviruses mutate like cold viruses so we may see a different strain next year. If you survive an infection, we would expect at least some immunity afterwards. I know of at least 7 variants that infect humans. There are probably more to take its place if you develop immunity to another form.
 
Chuck, I heard someone talk about long term damage from covid19. They mentioned something about Alveoli damage and damage to male reproduction. They mentioned something about ACE2 receptors or something like that.

What do you know about long term damage, if any?
 
cwbullet said:
It is possible. Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that range from the common cold to MERS coronavirus, which is Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus and SARs, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus. The Coronaviruses mutate like cold viruses so we may see a different strain next year. If you survive an infection, we would expect at least some immunity afterwards. I know of at least 7 variants that infect humans. There are probably more to take its place if you develop immunity to another form.
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Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems historically once the virus goes through it’s “first pass” (first exposure of previously uninfected people) it may mutate enough to re-infect people who previously had it, but the mutated form is either less severe (less likely to kill) and/or the previous exposure provides partial immunity (still get sick, but not as severe.) Otherwise flu pandemics would never end.

From a virus standpoint, causing FATAL disease is a negative survival trait for the virus, when host dies it no longer produces new virus particles. A more “successful” virus makes victims sick and therefore infectious for long periods without killing them, mutates a bit and comes back to repeat the cycle again.
 
BABAR said:
Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems historically once the virus goes through it’s “first pass” (first exposure of previously uninfected people) it may mutate enough to re-infect people who previously had it, but the mutated form is either less severe (less likely to kill) and/or the previous exposure provides partial immunity (still get sick, but not as severe.) Otherwise flu pandemics would never end.

From a virus standpoint, causing FATAL disease is a negative survival trait for the virus, when host dies it no longer produces new virus particles. A more “successful” virus makes victims sick and therefore infectious for long periods without killing them, mutates a bit and comes back to repeat the cycle again.
Click to expand...

It is all conjecture till next season. Coronaviruses, to date, have not had as many mutations as Influenza. Flu mutates every year. Human Coronaviruses have not mutated as as often. Yes, as with parasites, death reduces the spread of all viruses except ones like eBola.
 
mpitfield said:
Chuck, I heard someone talk about long term damage from covid19. They mentioned something about Alveoli damage and damage to male reproduction. They mentioned something about ACE2 receptors or something like that.

What do you know about long term damage, if any?
Click to expand...

I have read a few researchers and experts make that comment. I have yet to see any evidence or research to back it.
 
The President will brief the nation on COVID at 2100.
 
BDB said:
One of my staff is currently being tested for COVID-19. She tested positive for flu, which makes me feel a little at ease. But is there a chance that this coronavirus could induce a positive flu test? I assume the flu test is ELISA based, and I know the current coronavirus test is more accurate because it is PCR-based.

So the question is....how "promiscuous" is the flu test?
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My staff member was negative for Covid! Much relief in my office. If she had been positive, we would have all been quarantined.
 
BDB said:
My staff member was negative for Covid! Much relief in my office. If she had been positive, we would have all been quarantined.
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That is good news. Just for clarification, only HHS or a judge can put someone in quarantine. The staff member was going to placed in Isolation.
 
My question: are soft materials like clothes equally bad for carrying and transmitting the virus as hard surfaces? I've heard some questioning whether even the elbow-bump is a good idea, or if all contact should be avoided.
 
neil_w said:
My question: are soft materials like clothes equally bad for carrying and transmitting the virus as hard surfaces? I've heard some questioning whether even the elbow-bump is a good idea, or if all contact should be avoided.
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The virus is extremely "sticky" and is found in multiple bodily fluids and oils. I would stick to "no contact".
 
Years ago I adopted the slight bow that many of my Japanese colleagues use when greeting people. Respectful and germ free.

I will shake someone’s hand if they extend it, but I always try to get to the bow first as that usually heads it off.
 
Cl(VII) said:
Years ago I adopted the slight bow that many of my Japanese colleagues use when greeting people. Respectful and germ free.

I will shake someone’s hand if they extend it, but I always try to get to the bow first as that usually heads it off.
Click to expand...

Makes sense. Touching others outside of your spouse can only get you in trouble. This time it is enforced by a virus.
 
The CDC is finally admitting there isn't enough testing. We can't possibly know how many cases there are just based on the very limited number of tests that have been available. The decision to not use the already available WHO test and develop our own seems to have been a pretty significant error.


Tony
 
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cwbullet said:
I have them. What specifically do you want to know and why?
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I'm interested in the ages of the people who has died,. and if available a breakdown of the ages of all the reported cases,. Why? Because when I state an opinion, I like to back it up with facts, not feelings,.
 
manixFan said:
The CDC is finally admitting there isn't enough testing. We can't possibly know how many cases there are just based on the very limited number of tests that have been available. The decision to not use the already available WHO test and develop our own seems to have been a pretty significant error.


Tony
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I guess you think the United States should have kept 325,000,000 flu testing kit in stock, just in case,huh
 
WhiskyTangoFoxtrot said:
I'm interested in the ages of the people who has died,. and if available a breakdown of the ages of all the reported cases,. Why? Because when I state an opinion, I like to back it up with facts, not feelings,.
Click to expand...

I am not sure that data is available to the degree you want it and most importantly, it is not accurate. It is only the data on those tested. Everyone keeps stating we need more testing. I have not seen a lack of test kits. It is a PCR so not every hospital can perform it.

I would ask a few questions:
  1. Why do we need to test so may patients?
  2. Once it is in the area, why continue to test?
  3. If you have a positive test, would it change treatment?
The issue is not whether there are enough test kits. The issue is are testing the right patient with the right tests. Influenza A is a bug that is more common and has a special treatment. COVID is less common today (might change tomorrow) and to date, the treatment is the same as a common cold in most patients. Pneumonia from COVID is one diagnosis that we can treat differently, but the actual PCR is not how you diagnose this. It is a Chest xray.

Once again, I am not saying the test is worthless or unneeded, but those who claim there are not enough tests do not understand that the test is a means of obtaining statistics and does not save lives or change the treatment COVID patients receive at this time.
 
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