NATO relations with Ukraine

[GlueckAuf]

Javelin uses a 2-stage warhead for attacking reactive armor. I think it would take something as little as a firmware update to increase the time delay between the stage 1 warhead (could be used to clear the "visors") and the stage 2 warhead once the visors are clear of the turret.

As I understand it, the idea behind slat armor is not so much to detonate the incoming round prematurely, but to actually let the fuse pass through the slat and fracture the wider-shouldered warhead before it detonates. This may prevent its detonation altogether (best case), or at very least disrupt its ability form the critical jet of molten copper (called an Explosively Formed Projectile). It's the base-detonated EFP that focuses the explosion's heat and pressure against a very small point on the armor, burning through it like a soldering iron penetrates a plastic model and showering the inside of the target with molten metal. To ensure the engagement's coup de grâce, Russian tank designers, even with the vaunted T-14 Armata, have thoughtfully equipped their tanks with forty-some rounds of combustible-case ammunition in the turret floor to ensure a rather spectacular secondary explosion.



Against the lightly-constructed warhead of an RPG, slat armor might stop or degrade half of the incoming grenades. But probably only once since even the degraded explosion tends to destroy the relatively flimsy cage. And against medium (like Javelin) and heavy ATGMs, or tank-fired HEAT ammo, YMMV (read, fuggedabowdit).

 

[bguffer]

Mention of Taiwan, Ukraine (and Poland) got me interested in ordinary citizen's ability to resist an occupation:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_guns_per_capita_by_country
I won't be putting any money on Taiwan resisting occupation.

 

[cbwho]

I won't be putting any money on Taiwan resisting occupation.

You underestimate them.

 

[GlueckAuf]

Mention of Taiwan, Ukraine (and Poland) got me interested in ordinary citizen's ability to resist an occupation:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_guns_per_capita_by_country
I won't be putting any money on Taiwan resisting occupation.

Ukrainians, mindful of how Moscow starved them in the 30s and irradiated them in the 80s, might just decide it's not better to be red (again) than dead.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/articl...ine-russia-invade-volunteer-fighters-training

 

[cwbullet]

Ukrainians, mindful of how Moscow starved them in the 30s and irradiated them in the 80s, might just decide it's not better to be red (again) than dead.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/articl...ine-russia-invade-volunteer-fighters-training

I would not put money on that. I think they will resist. Guns are not the only means and Ukrainians are tough.

 

[Halvey]

We should rush - hurry, hurry hurry without doubt or further thinking - to attack now with all our strength, risking the lives of all Americans and indeed global civilization itself in the effort to rid the planet of these red headed, blue-eyed Huns which have been the scourge of the civilized portion of Earth for thousands of years.

Absolutely,,but China,,since they released this virus on the planet. Should have been a smoking hole a year ago.

I wonder how the Bidens feel about the gas shortage.,,since they went after the Ukraine as well.

 

[Halvey]

We should rush - hurry, hurry hurry without doubt or further thinking - to attack now with all our strength, risking the lives of all Americans and indeed global civilization itself in the effort to rid the planet of these red headed, blue-eyed Huns which have been the scourge of the civilized portion of Earth for thousands of years.

.

 

[cwbullet]

Mention of Taiwan, Ukraine (and Poland) got me interested in ordinary citizen's ability to resist an occupation:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_guns_per_capita_by_country
I won't be putting any money on Taiwan resisting occupation.

Guns are not the sole means to resist.

 

[GlueckAuf]

I would not put money on that. I think they will resist. Guns are not the only means and Ukrainians are tough.

Methinks you missed the "not" in "Ukrainians...might just decide it's not better to be red (again) than dead."

In the late 90s/early 2000s, I had the opportunity to help plan and execute a number of annual, NATO-sponsored, computer simulation-based virtual and live "Partnership for Peace" exercises held near L'viv and hosted by the newly-independent Ukrainian Armed Forces. (These always sought to improve the interoperability of NATO and former Soviet satellite nation armies during peace-keeping and disaster-relief operations, not warfighting.) Then, there was absolutely no love lost for the Russians among the Ukrainian military and civilian population I encountered for the long and despicable history of recklessness, oppression, and outright genocide Soviet Russians had inflicted on them.

Whether or not that passion for liberty still exists, and if it does will translate into the kind of resolute, vicious tenacity the Chechen resistance mounted against Russia's initial invasion of Chechnya in their spectacularly effective (but ultimately failed) push-back is impossible to say. But I'm pretty confident that Ukraine will not simply fold up like a paper lantern, either, and allow itself to be re-annexed by Vlad without a very tough and very bloody fight.

 

[Peartree]

Mention of Taiwan, Ukraine (and Poland) got me interested in ordinary citizen's ability to resist an occupation:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_guns_per_capita_by_country
I won't be putting any money on Taiwan resisting occupation.

Taiwan is a quarter the size of Florida but has almost 5 million more people. But despite being the size of a large US state, Taiwan has the 22nd largest military in the world (only slightly behind Canada). That's a lot of military firepower packed into a small space. I wouldn't bet against them so easily.

 

[user 35280]

Taiwan has the 22nd largest military

Their military though is all in a small area, makes them an easy target in an attack.

 

[bguffer]

Taiwan is a quarter the size of Florida but has almost 5 million more people. But despite being the size of a large US state, Taiwan has the 22nd largest military in the world (only slightly behind Canada). That's a lot of military firepower packed into a small space. I wouldn't bet against them so easily.

By "resist an occupation", i meant to express the potential situation where Taiwan military had already been defeated, and it was up to civilians to over time make the occupiers/invaders pay a price the occupiers/invaders are unwilling to pay. The invading/occupying force would presumably capture and/or destroy most/all of the occupied/invaded countries military assets fairly early on.

 

[Halvey]

I feel sorry for the Ukrainan's, I truly do. I wouldn't trust anyone around me either.

 

[cwbullet]

The problem with China is that they do not have a huge ability to project military power. Our navy is more capable and we can land a large number of troops. To this day, China does not have that capability. We are the only ones in the world able to land a large number of troops via the sea.

 

[StreuB1]

Ukrainians will resist en force. There is a lot of history as to why the Ukrainians will resist, and also why Poland will also fight like never before.

It stems back to the Katyn Massacre and the fact that most of western Ukraine was actually part of The Kingdom of Poland hundreds of years ago. A decent part of the Ukrainian population are ethnic Poles or are at most 2 generations from their Polish ancestors. Many people in Ukraine speak Polish as matter of course.

Fun fact, portions of Ukraine were annexed by Russia from Poland. Russia has a way of simply annexing land that is not theirs.

We won't speak of the Holodomor..... something with few people today even know about, but should.

The Holodomor and Katyn are atrocities that get no attention but must never be forgotten, just like The Holocaust.

For the edification of others:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomorhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre

 

[hball55]

If Putin is telling the truth when he says that if we don’t admit Ukraine to NATO, he will remove his troops from the border, then it would be a simple decision to not have Ukraine admitted to NATO. Putin does not want U.S. missiles in Ukraine.

If Putin is being truthful . . . BIG IF.

 

[PhilC]

Since the time of Peter the Great Russian governments have believed that the only good border is one with Russians on both sides. The border with Belorussia is fairly safe, while those with the Baltic states and Ukraine make Russia vulnerable.
The Latvian border is partially protected by the Kaliningrad Oblast, but the border with Ukraine leaves a gaping gap in Russia’s south. Add to that the long standing desire for access to the Black Sea, and that the origins of the Rus lie in Ukraine, and you can see the historic significance of Ukraine to Russia.
Putin is using the ‘crisis‘ this to strengthen his internal position at a time when there are serious internal issues. Its a crude but simple message that appeals to the Russian nationalist inclinations.

 

[StreuB1]

Simply put. All this is, is a modern day version of Russification (Yes, it is a real thing. Look it up). I cannot be made to believe otherwise.

 

[cwbullet]

If Putin is telling the truth when he says that if we don’t admit Ukraine to NATO, he will remove his troops from the border, then it would be a simple decision to not have Ukraine admitted to NATO. Putin does not want U.S. missiles in Ukraine.

If Putin is being truthful . . . BIG IF.

It is only a matter of time till Ukraine and many of the other former puppet states are a part of NATO.

 

[boatgeek]

It is only a matter of time till Ukraine and many of the other former puppet states are a part of NATO.

Putin is one of NATO's most effective recruiters. In my dream world, I'd like someone to tell him that if he doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO, he shouldn't make Ukraine feel like they have to join NATO to stay independent. It's pretty simple...

 

[Bill S]

It is only a matter of time till Ukraine and many of the other former puppet states are a part of NATO.

But does it really matter if they join Nato or not? I was under the impression that most of the NATO member countries have let their militaries decline to the point where they would be no longer be much use/deterrent to Russian aggression. 5 of what, 28 counties are meeting their mandated 2% of GDP spending on their militaries, and only a small percentage of that is for new equipment in general.

 

[cwbullet]

But does it really matter if they join Nato or not? I was under the impression that most of the NATO member countries have let their militaries decline to the point where they would be no longer be much use/deterrent to Russian aggression. 5 of what, 28 counties are meeting their mandated 2% of GDP spending on their militaries, and only a small percentage of that is for new equipment in general.

The Big Four have plenty of capabilities to pummel the Russians in a short war. None can maintain a sustained conflict and that includes Russia. I am not expecting a war. I think there is enough of a risk that it will prevent someone from firing the first salvo.

 

[boatgeek]

But does it really matter if they join Nato or not? I was under the impression that most of the NATO member countries have let their militaries decline to the point where they would be no longer be much use/deterrent to Russian aggression. 5 of what, 28 counties are meeting their mandated 2% of GDP spending on their militaries, and only a small percentage of that is for new equipment in general.

Joining NATO means that they are covered by the broader self-defense clause, so all NATO members would have to respond if they were attacked. While some nations’ militaries are small, 28 together is nothing to sneeze at. Also, the Baltic states are awfully close to St Petersburg…

 

[PhilC]

But does it really matter if they join Nato or not? I was under the impression that most of the NATO member countries have let their militaries decline to the point where they would be no longer be much use/deterrent to Russian aggression. 5 of what, 28 counties are meeting their mandated 2% of GDP spending on their militaries, and only a small percentage of that is for new equipment in general.

To the west, it probably doesn't matter too much id Ukraine joins NATO. To Russia it matters a lot. It would place a perceived enemy directly along the Russian border. The geopolitics and numbers game has changed a lot from the days when NATO was focussed on the inner German border and trying to stop waves of tanks with very little depth of manoeuvre. NATO now has a lot more depth now that Germany is unified and Poland is a member. The southern flank shows similar depth with Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and a host of smaller states joining NATO. Russia has lost that buffer zone and has NATO forces positioned much closer to its border.
Following the 2014 NATO summit in Newport UK (about 15 miles from where I live) many of the NATO members agreed to increase spending back to the 2%, and timetable was put in place. For me it's not a magic number, more a statement of commitment. For a small country such as Belgium 2% of GDP is a much more significant sum than for larger countries. It will take smaller countries longer to reach 2% than the larger economies, but the change is underway.
I'm not so concerned about it not being spent on hardware, provided that hardware is able to counter current threats. The nature of warfare has changed a lot since my days in uniform. Force multipliers such as communications, AI and autonomous systems can be far more effective investments than hardware provided that the doctrine for their use is sound.

 

[boomtube-mk2]

Putin wants to rebuild the Soviet Union, at least in part, and he is looking down the barrel of the population gun with respects to getting it done.
For a nation to have a sustainable population, there must be a birth rate of 2.11-2.3 per couple, depending on whose figures you use and the mortality rate of infants and children.
Russia's per-couple birth rate is somewhere around 1.75 thus Russia is suffering a population implosion as well as a rapidly aging population.
So, if Vlad can't get it done within the next ten or twenty years, he or whoever replaces him is going to go to war with 40/50-year-old troops and not many of them.
Japan is in the same situation as is many of the European nations.

 

[boomtube-mk2]

But, on the other hand, all indications are that China has less than 20 years of dominance left before they see huge, and unavoidable, economic and military impacts from their former one-child policy.

Another downside to the one-child policy is the current and growing imbalance between the male and female populations among marriageable age men and woman.
There are those in the intelligence gathering community that believe it might be as bad as two to one in favor of men vs women some believe it might even be worse.
The numbers are obscured by the huge numbers of men in China's Armed Forces and the who knows how many that are assigned to building China's Special Projects.
For the most part all of those men are out of sight, out of mind when it comes to the "Dating Pool".

 

[PhilC]

Putin wants to rebuild the Soviet Union, at least in part, and he is looking down the barrel of the population gun with respects to getting it done.
For a nation to have a sustainable population, there must be a birth rate of 2.11-2.3 per couple, depending on whose figures you use and the mortality rate of infants and children.
Russia's per-couple birth rate is somewhere around 1.75 thus Russia is suffering a population implosion as well as a rapidly aging population.
So, if Vlad can't get it done within the next ten or twenty years, he or whoever replaces him is going to go to war with 40/50-year-old troops and not many of them.
Japan is in the same situation as is many of the European nations.

He understands that the Soviet Union is dead and buried. I think he's more interested in presenting Russia as a great power, similar to the 19th century when Russia had an empire of client states with a sphere of influence. Russia's traditional SOI has collapsed, apart from Belorussia and a few disputed regions in the Caucasus which he tries to control by occasionally 'thawing' a few frozen conflicts.
Your comment on the birth rate is interesting. It might not affect him, but it could certainly affect his successors.

 

[Matt_The_RocketMan]

Russia reminds me what Germany was trying to do when it wanted to spread its territory.... Lebensraum....but it also reminds me of the old soviet union and its Iron Curtain with its boarder satellite states....but it also reminds of when Germany Invaded Czechoslovakia, and took over the land they thought they had people that they saw theirs... and didnt totally invade the other half since it wasnt supported.

 

[afadeev]

If Putin is telling the truth when he says that if we don’t admit Ukraine to NATO, he will remove his troops from the border, then it would be a simple decision to not have Ukraine admitted to NATO. Putin does not want U.S. missiles in Ukraine. If Putin is being truthful . . . BIG IF.

And if pigs could fly, we wouldn't need an air force ... BIG IF.

Ukraine's aspiration for joining NATO is merely an excuse for Russian aggression.
Putin wants Ukraine for the same reasons his predecessors wanted it - to build and expand the corrupt and inept Russian/Soviet empire. Same went for Afghanistan, and all other ex-Soviet republics, and slices of Finland, Poland, Latvia, Japan, etc, etc.

A review of the problem space can be found here:

 

[Peartree]

Another downside to the one-child policy is the current and growing imbalance between the male and female populations among marriageable age men and woman.
There are those in the intelligence gathering community that believe it might be as bad as two to one in favor of men vs women some believe it might even be worse.
The numbers are obscured by the huge numbers of men in China's Armed Forces and the who knows how many that are assigned to building China's Special Projects.
For the most part all of those men are out of sight, out of mind when it comes to the "Dating Pool".

Doesn't take an intelligence analyst to see that. I've been saying that was going to be a problem for China's neighbors since we adopted our daughter there in 1996. It certainly wouldn't be the first time that a country invaded their neighbors to steal wives for their soldiers. That sort of thing is positively biblical.