Thoughts on the middle east conflicts.

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That’s why I asked, it’s not unlikely that we gave them some of our stuff (I mean it’s not like we have a shortage).
Define "shortage".

It is argued one should never use the word never in describing chance, but in this case, never, as in "never happened" is appropriate. Information around the nuclear weapons environment is mostly secret or of higher classification. Even the geo-political stuff between allies. Even if someone were to know, it is not likely they would tell. The one thing for sure is the value of nuclear deterrence has waned over time...
 
I think we need to call in the expert, paging @Antares JS
As @PhilC said, Islam didn't exist during biblical times. The first infighting between the Abrahamic religions were the Jewish leaders persecuting Christians from the first century AD. This lasted up until the Judeo-Roman war of 67-70 AD that saw the destruction of the temple in Jerusalem. After that point, the remaining Jews who hadn't converted to Christianity had bigger issues to worry about - namely the very survival of their religion, since the line of Aaron had just been wiped out.

My knowledge of what was happening in the middle east from the founding of Islam to the crusades is fuzzy, but it can't have been all good since the crusades initially happened because of Muslims forcibly encroaching on Christian territory and waylaying Christian pilgrims. I assume Islam slowly spread and gained strength until the point when Muslim countries started eyeing up Christian lands of the Middle East and were able to make a serious play for them. All the crusades really managed to do in the Middle East was slow them down. If I remember correctly, the Christian Kingdom of Jerusalem barely lasted a century before being taken again by Muslims. Not all crusades were failures though - the Reconquista campaign that retook Iberia (modern day Spain and Portugal) for Christendom was a crusade.

Long story short, I don't think relations between the three have ever been that good, and while bad relations between Christians and Jews do go back to biblical times, those mostly seem to be resolved. Islam and Christianity have, at best, tolerated each other, but as Islam itself does not go back to biblical times, neither do their bad relations.

I'm also pretty sure "People of the book" was a way Muslims referred to Christians and does not refer to Jews or other Muslims, but I could be wrong about that.
 
As @PhilC said, Islam didn't exist during biblical times. The first infighting between the Abrahamic religions were the Jewish leaders persecuting Christians from the first century AD. This lasted up until the Judeo-Roman war of 67-70 AD that saw the destruction of the temple in Jerusalem. After that point, the remaining Jews who hadn't converted to Christianity had bigger issues to worry about - namely the very survival of their religion, since the line of Aaron had just been wiped out.

My knowledge of what was happening in the middle east from the founding of Islam to the crusades is fuzzy, but it can't have been all good since the crusades initially happened because of Muslims forcibly encroaching on Christian territory and waylaying Christian pilgrims. I assume Islam slowly spread and gained strength until the point when Muslim countries started eyeing up Christian lands of the Middle East and were able to make a serious play for them. All the crusades really managed to do in the Middle East was slow them down. If I remember correctly, the Christian Kingdom of Jerusalem barely lasted a century before being taken again by Muslims. Not all crusades were failures though - the Reconquista campaign that retook Iberia (modern day Spain and Portugal) for Christendom was a crusade.

Long story short, I don't think relations between the three have ever been that good, and while bad relations between Christians and Jews do go back to biblical times, those mostly seem to be resolved. Islam and Christianity have, at best, tolerated each other, but as Islam itself does not go back to biblical times, neither do their bad relations.

I'm also pretty sure "People of the book" was a way Muslims referred to Christians and does not refer to Jews or other Muslims, but I could be wrong about that.
People of the Book definitely includes Jews. It was a distinction between monotheists and pagans/polytheists.
 
My knowledge of what was happening in the middle east from the founding of Islam to the crusades is fuzzy, but it can't have been all good since the crusades initially happened because of Muslims forcibly encroaching on Christian territory and waylaying Christian pilgrims. I assume Islam slowly spread and gained strength until the point when Muslim countries started eyeing up Christian lands of the Middle East and were able to make a serious play for them. All the crusades really managed to do in the Middle East was slow them down. If I remember correctly, the Christian Kingdom of Jerusalem barely lasted a century before being taken again by Muslims. Not all crusades were failures though - the Reconquista campaign that retook Iberia (modern day Spain and Portugal) for Christendom was a crusade.

You need to look 300 360 years before the crusades. Charlemagne Charles Martel was able to unite most chunks of western Europe because he got them all together to repel the Muslim incursion that had moved north out of Spain and halfway up France.

"...to the shores of Tripoli." This stuff is integral to the history of the U.S., like it or not. It was held in check for awhile by the French conquest of North Africa in the early 19th century and the following domination of that region that persisted until the mid-20th century.
 
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Define "shortage".
I mean last I checked the US was number two and I can’t imagine that they ALL got disposed of.
As @Bravo52 said, those who know aren’t saying and those who say don’t know. According to Wikipedia, it looks like their original partner was the French, but see the previous statement.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel
Hmm following the source leads me to a book published in the 90s and that is the only source I’ve seen to say that then again it’s the only source to suggest who it was so I guess it’s the best we’ve got. I really hope that they don’t have full on nuclear weapons though, if they have the largest estimate of 80 then they could make the entire area a waste land. If they have fission ones then they can only damage most of the cities.
 
I mean last I checked the US was number two and I can’t imagine that they ALL got disposed of.

Hmm following the source leads me to a book published in the 90s and that is the only source I’ve seen to say that then again it’s the only source to suggest who it was so I guess it’s the best we’ve got. I really hope that they don’t have full on nuclear weapons though,
I would not bet against Israel having nuclear weapons, from fusion bombs to artillery shells.
if they have the largest estimate of 80 then they could make the entire area a waste land. If they have fission ones then they can only damage most of the cities.
See also: MAD.
 
You need to look 300 years before the crusades. Charlemagne was able to unite most of Europe because he got them all together to repel the Muslim incursion that had moved north out of Spain and halfway up France.
That's interesting. I didn't know that Charlemagne did any fighting against Muslims.
 
If they have fission ones then they can only damage most of the cities.
If you look at the history of weapons, the first bombs used were fission weapons and of rudimentary design. Modern fission weapons are not rudimentary. Even the Ivy King (early 1950s) weapons (Mk-18s) were roughly 500-600 Kt and by Hiroshima and Nagasaki standards were approx 40 times more powerful. I wouldn't think Israel would be rock'n just a few "Fat Mans" and "Little Boys". 1713141727365.png
 
According to Wikipedia Israel has between 90 and 400 nuclear weapons. As of now best guess is Iran does not have a nuclear weapon. The cost of Israel's defense last night is reported to have cost one billion dollars. I expect Israel to wait a couple of weeks before they attack. Iran is probable on high alert. They can't keep that up very long. Th stress to their military will be detrimental if they stay on high alert for a long time. When Iran thinks they dogged a bullet then they will get hit. Israel had a couple hours warning before the attack. Either they have a satellite providing real time imaging or maybe a submarine gave a warning. It's also possible that Israel has assets in Iran. We'll just have to wait and see.
 
My knowledge of what was happening in the middle east from the founding of Islam to the crusades is fuzzy, but it can't have been all good since the crusades initially happened because of Muslims forcibly encroaching on Christian territory and waylaying Christian pilgrims. I assume Islam slowly spread and gained strength until the point when Muslim countries started eyeing up Christian lands of the Middle East and were able to make a serious play for them. All the crusades really managed to do in the Middle East was slow them down. If I remember correctly, the Christian Kingdom of Jerusalem barely lasted a century before being taken again by Muslims. Not all crusades were failures though - the Reconquista campaign that retook Iberia (modern day Spain and Portugal) for Christendom was a crusade.
Prior to the Crusades Europe was fairly chaotic in the 'dark ages' following the collapse of Rome. Bands of Saxons, Franks and Danes migrated generally westwards and founded their own states. Stability started to emerge when the Normans established stable kingdoms in northern Europe and the Mediterranean, leading to increased pilgimages and other contact.
Over its first 50 years a rapid Arab expension took Islam, and its associated culture, along the African coast to Spain and eastwards to Afghanistan. Scholarship was prized In the Islamic world to a much greater extent than in the west. The Arabs saw Europe as backward and didn't seem particularly interested in the region except for trade and opportunistic expansion of their religion. Under the Abassids (750AD to the Crusades) Christians and Jews in the Arab world were generally tolerated, but required to pay taxes from which Muslims were exempt. They were also subject to some social restrictions about dress and intermarriage which were intended to encourage conversion rather than suppress other religions.
My 'go to' book on this period is Albert Hourani's excellent 'History of the Arab Peoples' which is well worth reading.
 
Actually, I goofed up. It was Charlemagne's grandfather, Charles Martel, who first provided effective resistance to stop Muslim incursion into France.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tours
He was also known as “the Hammer” because he fought with a big hammer.

If you look at the history of weapons, the first bombs used were fission weapons and of rudimentary design. Modern fission weapons are not rudimentary. Even the Ivy King (early 1950s) weapons (Mk-18s) were roughly 500-600 Kt and by Hiroshima and Nagasaki standards were approx 40 times more powerful. I wouldn't think Israel would be rock'n just a few "Fat Mans" and "Little Boys". View attachment 640626
Interesting I was not aware that there was work done on fission after the fusion program started (besides reactors).
See also: MAD.
I’m usually pretty confident in that but this time there’s complications, mostly the fact that both parties are entertaining a hot war with hard liners on both sides, all it might take is one’s army getting to close for comfort and then making the call of a scorched earth becomes a lot more appealing (if I can’t then no one can)
 
I don't think the leadership in Iran knows what kind of hell is going to come out of the Pandoras Box they have opened. Earlier tonight a news man was saying Iran has said this was a one off. Did they learn nothing by the Israeli response to the Hamas attack. This is how I see this playing out. If there isn't already Israeli submarines off the Iranian coast there soon will be. First the Israelis will send a swarm of cruise missiles to take out Iran's air defense. Then F35's and F15's come in from all directions. 5000 pound deep penetrators hit all the nuclear sites, underground bases and weapon storage sites. Every air base. Fixed missile sites. Command and control sites. The IRGC is going to get hit with a very big hammer. The submarines sink Iran's navy. And for good measure, good by Khrag Island and that's the end of Iranian oil exports. And then it gets real ugly because Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon. Syria and Iraq get involved. Jordan won't get involved, they may even help Israel. I don't think Egypt will either. Turkey is a wild card. I don't know what they might do. The Taliban might attack Iran too. I expect the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Mines is my guess. The Houthi will double down on attacks on shipping. I remember hearing a very very long time ago that Armageddon will start in the Middle East. Hold on tight, the ride is about to get bumpy.
I think you underestimate Iran's ability to defend itself against external attack. The Iron Dome proved very effecting in defending Israel from this barrage; don't confuse that with the idea that Israel can hit targets in Iran with impunity.

It's also possible that Israel has assets in Iran. We'll just have to wait and see.
"Possible"? I consider it a virtual certainty that Israel has covert assets in Iran. And so do we. And so does every other country with significant covert intelligence capability. And they all have assets here, and in all those other places. Everybody watches everybody, everybody knows it, and even knows who a few of those assets are.
 
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He was also known as “the Hammer” because he fought with a big hammer.
Martel means hammer in old French, so Charles Martel is more or less Charles the Hammer.
I’m usually pretty confident in that but this time there’s complications, mostly the fact that both parties are entertaining a hot war with hard liners on both sides, all it might take is one’s army getting to close for comfort and then making the call of a scorched earth becomes a lot more appealing (if I can’t then no one can)
I may be a minority on this here, but I see the Iranians as a fundamentally rational regime cloaked in religious fundamentalism. At this point, they're more interested in regional power and self-preservation than the fundamentalism. Pursuing nuclear weapons is a self-preservation move vs. the US (the US invaded Iraq and Afghanistan, who don't have nukes, but have not invaded North Korea, who does). Keeping Israel and others occupied with insurgents is a self-preservation move too. The IRGC is on a financial gravy train, since there's a lot of Guard-owned businesses. Like in Cuba, the opposition to the US and Israel is a way to justify a poorer economic climate partly caused by the IRGC skimming a lot off the top. I don't agree with their choices, but I see them as fundamentally rational. And MAD works on rational people.

North Korea scares me more because I don't see Kim as a rational person. Who knows what he might decide to do if someone puts the wrong cognac on his corn flakes in the morning?
 
North Korea scares me more because I don't see Kim as a rational person. Who knows what he might decide to do if someone puts the wrong cognac on his corn flakes in the morning?
Nah, Kim is perfectly aware that his military and government will be obliterated by the west and their allies if he tries anything stupid. His chief interest is in maintaining the status quo with himself on top of North Korea.
 
Nah, Kim is perfectly aware that his military and government will be obliterated by the west and their allies if he tries anything stupid. His chief interest is in maintaining the status quo with himself on top of North Korea.
This, I have think that dictators are always intelligent people after all it takes some smarts to run a country.
 
Martel means hammer in old French, so Charles Martel is more or less Charles the Hammer.
Well I don’t speak French and I saw I pic of him holding a big hammer so I assumed that was why he was called the hammer.
I may be a minority on this here, but I see the Iranians as a fundamentally rational regime cloaked in religious fundamentalism. At this point, they're more interested in regional power and self-preservation than the fundamentalism. Pursuing nuclear weapons is a self-preservation move vs. the US (the US invaded Iraq and Afghanistan, who don't have nukes, but have not invaded North Korea, who does). Keeping Israel and others occupied with insurgents is a self-preservation move too. The IRGC is on a financial gravy train, since there's a lot of Guard-owned businesses. Like in Cuba, the opposition to the US and Israel is a way to justify a poorer economic climate partly caused by the IRGC skimming a lot off the top. I don't agree with their choices, but I see them as fundamentally rational. And MAD works on rational people.
I don’t know, the US for a long time really intended to hit the button if the USSR did anything funny, but then we both started doing something funny and bing bang boom Cuba has nuclear weapons and the US is about to do it, I think this can play out the same way.
 
I think you underestimate Iran's ability to defend itself against external attack. The Iron Dome proved very effecting in defending Israel from this barrage; don't confuse that with the idea that Israel can hit targets in Iran with impunity.
Iran surely has an ability, but not "the" ability. They should assume Israel can hit strategic targets at a much higher capacity than they can defend. If you look at the overall "big board" you will see the systems Iran possesses are not as capable as the systems the Israelies possess. The majority of the systems in Iran are copies of other systems that are 60-70s era systems. Copies. The bigger threat is the S-300, which they have trouble maintaining so they copied it. However, that's not the biggest issue. While those systems have some capability, the command and control is the bigger void they have issues overcoming. Considering the "similar" systems in Syria, they have done nothing to stop Israel.
 
Well I don’t speak French and I saw I pic of him holding a big hammer so I assumed that was why he was called the hammer.
You may or may not know this, but in the middle ages most surnames were descriptive. Charles the Hammer got the name because he used a hammer in battle. Charlemagne is literally Charles the Great. John Farmer and Joseph Miller got their names from their jobs (which were likely handed down parent to child so they approximated family names, at least for eldest sons). George Brown and Erik the Red... well, you get the idea.

Most places have gotten away from that system, though Iceland has a pretty strong parental name tradition. I believe that men are generally named after their fathers (eg Bjarni Benedicktsson, literally Bjarni son of Benedikt) and women are generally named after their mothers (eg Johanna Sigurdardottir. literally Johanna daughter of Sigurdar). Surnames change from generation to generation.
 
Iran surely has an ability, but not "the" ability. They should assume Israel can hit strategic targets at a much higher capacity than they can defend. If you look at the overall "big board" you will see the systems Iran possesses are not as capable as the systems the Israelies possess. The majority of the systems in Iran are copies of other systems that are 60-70s era systems. Copies. The bigger threat is the S-300, which they have trouble maintaining so they copied it. However, that's not the biggest issue. While those systems have some capability, the command and control is the bigger void they have issues overcoming. Considering the "similar" systems in Syria, they have done nothing to stop Israel.
As stated above, Israel acquired nuclear technology in the mid 1950s from Charles DeGaulle. In the 1973 war, when the initial tide of war was against Israel, Moshe Dayan (defense chief) requested that several nuclear bombs be assembled in their nuclear labs in Dimona. Israel has been reported to have over 200 nuclear devices in their stock pile. They have both the aircraft and missiles readily available to deliver these devices. It was reported (~ 2 years ago) that several Israeli F-35s flew over Terhan and were undetected. One of several distinctions is that Israel has had nuclear weapons for over 70 years and not used them and only would if needed in a last ditch measure to sustain their existence. In contrast, once Iran has operational nuclear bombs, they will use them for nuclear blackmail and at any opportunity possible. Thankfully, 99% of the drones/ ballistic missiles were intercepted. However , if the few missiles that got through the defense network were nuclear "tipped," it would have been devastating. IMHO Israel needs to hit Iranian military sites and their developing nuclear sites as soon as possible
Fred, L2
 
In contrast, once Iran has operational nuclear bombs, they will use them for nuclear blackmail and at any opportunity possible.
Nah, for the same reason Kim won't use his nukes. If Iran does that, anything sketchy that Israel has done will be instantly forgotten as the full wrath of the West is turned on Iran.
 
Nah, for the same reason Kim won't use his nukes. If Iran does that, anything sketchy that Israel has done will be instantly forgotten as the full wrath of the West is turned on Iran.
Nah, for the same reason Kim won't use his nukes. If Iran does that, anything sketchy that Israel has done will be instantly forgotten as the full wrath of the West is turned on Iran.
North Korea takes its marching orders from China only, they have functional delivery systems and nuclear weapons. In contrast, we believe Iran does not yet have a functional bomb or effective delivery system; thus the comparison may not hold. Furthermore, If Iran one day does hit Israel with a nuclear bomb, it would be too late for the West to effectively act. Israel does not want to be in a position to "depend" on anyone to defend them or control their response to a potential existential attack. If the UK told the US to not retaliate for the attack on 911, you know what our response would have been.
 
You may or may not know this, but in the middle ages most surnames were descriptive.
A great book to read that uses this descriptor is Ken Follett's "Pillars of the Earth". That said, I'm pretty sure there is a "little john" in my surname. If I look at my DNA, there are only two places I could be from...here and there. One on this side of the pond and one on the other. 😆
 
what could we do that was worse than using nuclear weapons that Israel has already used in this situation? Bio weapons to finish the last off?
For starters, Israel probably wouldn't use all of their nukes. They would likely want to save some for another adversary. Next up, if some of the nukes are not in a form that can reach Iran. For example, srtillery shells and a modern equivalent of the Honest John don't have the range. Finally, you would expect that they would use redundant targeting of high value targets either to make sure that at least one bomb gets through or to try to get a blast deeper underground (one nuke digs a hole, the next digs it deeper, etc.). So I could imagine a scenario where 5-20 targets got hammered, and the rest of the country was relatively unscathed except for fallout.

I'm pretty far out on a limb here, so I more or less expect a correction.
 
For starters, Israel probably wouldn't use all of their nukes. They would likely want to save some for another adversary. Next up, if some of the nukes are not in a form that can reach Iran. For example, srtillery shells and a modern equivalent of the Honest John don't have the range. Finally, you would expect that they would use redundant targeting of high value targets either to make sure that at least one bomb gets through or to try to get a blast deeper underground (one nuke digs a hole, the next digs it deeper, etc.). So I could imagine a scenario where 5-20 targets got hammered, and the rest of the country was relatively unscathed except for fallout.

I'm pretty far out on a limb here, so I more or less expect a correction.
Good point we could make the entire country resemble the fallout games,
 
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