Motor costs up 300%?
- Thread starter sed6
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spigalau
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Global chip supply issues have driven the prices up for everything.
Perhaps you’re remembering wrong or you got a really good sale price for that J270 in 2016. I seem to remember J350s going for $45 in 2001.
Also, the inflation rate is a statistical blend of prices, rather than specific for a product like rocket motors. You can look back through the forums to see how the price of AP has drastically risen.
@sed6 --
That's because your 2023 motor dollars are actually worth only $0.31 1998 motor dollars ( 25 years ago )
But don't worry, the way the dishonest economist bastards in DC measure inflation, that ain't really the case because the costs of fuel and food are 'too volatile' to factor into inflation rates ...
-- kjh
This is an actual motor order from from May 31, 1998 in Ocotillo, CA:
Code:
May 31, 1998
John --
Here is the order.
Thanks and see you Sunday !
-- kjh
+------+----------------------------------------+-------+--------+
| Qty | Description | Price | Amount |
+------+----------------------------------------+-------+--------+
| 2 | Aerotech RMS H128-Medium | 6.97 | 13.94 |
| 2 | Aerotech RMS H180-Long | 11.17 | 22.34 |
| 2 | Aerotech RMS I435-Long | 25.17 | 50.34 |
| 1 | Aerotech RMS J350-Long | 29.37 | 29.37 | <-- this
| 1 | Aerotech RMS K1100-Long | 65.97 | 65.97 |
+------+----------------------------------------+-------+--------+
| Subtotal | 181.96 |
| Tax @ 0.0775 | 14.10 |
+------------------------------------------------+--------+
| Total | 196.06 |
+------------------------------------------------+--------+
Everything was affected by the shutdown of the world a couple years ago and has not rebounded (and probably never will)
Also with the demise of the Shuttle program, surplus APCP has dwindled.
Also with the demise of the Shuttle program, surplus APCP has dwindled.
We pay a minimum of 2.5 times what you pay for motors at RRP. That's for motors not requiring SDL and not including hazmat fees. It requires another degree of dedication to fly big motors here.
Good call, @T-Rex ... a real-world cause that I hadn't considered because I didn't think of it !
Thanks
-- kjh
Its highly disingenous to divorce food and energy price increases into inflation, as energy price increases affect every aspect of the economy in some way. Food, well one can substitute to a certain degree or skip "luxury" foods, but... They don't use the same food "basket" year after year anymore; they tweak it as needed for political reasons (ie, to make inflation look less than it actually is).
AP has skyrocketed since the supply of 'surplus' AP has dwindled/disappeared.
About twenty years ago I bought a barrel of excellent quality AP for $2/lb. If you can get it for less than about seven times that today, you are doing pretty well.
Hopefully some less-expensive surplus AP will show up in a few years. Maybe NASA or the military surplus-es it when the use-by date has passed. No, AP does ntt actually go bad...not even for decades. It may cake from moisture depending on how it's stored but it's still AP. As long as it's not TOO caked (rock-hard) it's still useful.
About twenty years ago I bought a barrel of excellent quality AP for $2/lb. If you can get it for less than about seven times that today, you are doing pretty well.
Hopefully some less-expensive surplus AP will show up in a few years. Maybe NASA or the military surplus-es it when the use-by date has passed. No, AP does ntt actually go bad...not even for decades. It may cake from moisture depending on how it's stored but it's still AP. As long as it's not TOO caked (rock-hard) it's still useful.
ThirstyBarbarian
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Maybe you transposed some digits? I think J motors were closer to 73 bucks than 37 bucks in 2016. $37 sounds more like the 2016 price for an H or I.
That’s not to say prices for motors have not gone up a LOT in recent years. They definitely have gone up faster than inflation in general.
J270 is currently available for $67 if you pre-order them from Balsa Machining Service. I don't know when the last time I paid MSRP for a motor was, maybe never.
sed6
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Didn't know this was a thing, thanks!
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I pulled my 2016 BF order from Wildman, I had a J270 on it... it was $44 at the 35% discounted price. That makes the list price about $68. So yes, they've gone up a lot in 7 years (50%), but then so have a lot of other things. When you give $4T away, that's what happens... your dollar isn't worth as much.
https://www.defensenews.com/space/2...base-at-risk-for-key-rocket-motor-ingredient/
That was the start as I recall of a big run-up in the price of AP. It used to be easy to buy barrels of surplus AP for a few dollars a pound. Not anymore. The price of AP is of course a significant portion of the price of a motor, so it's not really the same inflationary factors at play here (as for many other items) for a large portion of the price increase.
At least that's my understanding of it. Hopefully someone more fully versed on the details will chime in.
Tony
PS: The single source issue led to an audit that [redacted}:
https://media.defense.gov/2020/Jul/13/2002452356/-1/-1/1/DODIG-2020-095.PDF
That was the start as I recall of a big run-up in the price of AP. It used to be easy to buy barrels of surplus AP for a few dollars a pound. Not anymore. The price of AP is of course a significant portion of the price of a motor, so it's not really the same inflationary factors at play here (as for many other items) for a large portion of the price increase.
At least that's my understanding of it. Hopefully someone more fully versed on the details will chime in.
Tony
PS: The single source issue led to an audit that [redacted}:
https://media.defense.gov/2020/Jul/13/2002452356/-1/-1/1/DODIG-2020-095.PDF
The major costs are AP, binder, liner material.
AP and HTPB due to the evaporation of surplus that people were using for years as well as the MFG's of HTPB being traded around and being tied to the petrochem industry.
AP and HTPB due to the evaporation of surplus that people were using for years as well as the MFG's of HTPB being traded around and being tied to the petrochem industry.
terryg
Well-Known Member
Labor costs are up also. Someone has to prep the propellant and assemble and package the components.
ShadowSpire48
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Motor costs are why I stopped flying high power, it's just not worth it anymore unless you can afford to save up all year long and then do a big purchase on black friday or another sale. My full scale ARCAS will never fly. I paid less than $70 for a J425R motor 3 years ago, now that same motor is $103. Hell the only K I've ever flown was 2 years ago and it was a K535. Paid 130ish for it, now it's damn near $200. Not worth a $30-60 increase per motor. Say what you will but the amount of high power flyers is going to take a big tumble
Gastrok
Well-Known Member
Replying as a test. Nice discussion.
I think the number of HPR flyers will decrease but not drastically. University students will still be building their Zephers and burning an H100 to get certified.
I have never understood how folks can fly even 54mm motors on a regular basis. I look at my own finances and will continue to fly 29mm AT reloads for the vast majority of my HPR fights. I have only recently been in position to burn a 38 more than once or twice a year (short lived due to prices, but that's life). I have enough motors to ease into the higher prices, but then I only get to fly maybe 4 times a year. I only have 1 rocket that requires a 38mm motor to get off the rail safely.
I have it set up so $25 goes directly into a savings account every week. In theory it makes it so I have enough cash to make motor purchases as I desire. (In theory because it keeps getting raided for other uses. A lot like the Social Security trust fund.)
I enjoy the social interaction that I get from rocketry. I will keep flying when I can, but, just fewer flights. I went from BP to HPR. I'm kind of enjoying taking a step back to more MPR.
@ShadowSpire48 you should fly that ARCAS, but make it a special event, once a year and maybe on a smaller motor than you would have liked. Yes maybe put money in a mason jar every payday to help support that endeavor. No one cares if you have to purchase that motor during Black Weekend, or be part of a group buy (to ease the burden of HazMat), or if you can only get a single motor from your onsite vendor at a time (or all year). All anyone cares about is that you came out to the field, said hello, got in a launch (HPR or otherwise), and smiled.
