Rising commercial solid rocket motor demand effects on the HPR hobby

[Chad]

I saw this article a while back about rising demand for commercial solid rocket motors. I didn't recognize any of the companies mentioned but i wonder if the HPR hobby will see any supply chain impacts. I could see chemical manufactures ramping up the supply of ingredients for solid rocket motors which could make prices go down but, on the other hand, if every last bit made is being snatched up by motor manufactures then i could see prices rise.

https://www.defensenews.com/industr...-amid-growing-demand-for-solid-rocket-motors/

 

[techrat]

On the contrary, I consider this a *good thing*. If they are making lots and lots of batches of Ammonium Perclorate, that means availablity as opposed to "out of stock". Not making those batches usually means that it's harder to get because less companies are mixing this stuff up. Think of it like the chip shortage. When the fabs were not printing chips, nobody could make new cars. That sent prices up, even for used cars. Now it's starting to settle out again, but it was bad for a while.

Lots of batches of solid rocket fuel means that production is ramping up, which means more availability which means that prices might actually come down.

At least that's what I think. Which is worth the paper it's printed on.

 

[NTP2]

At least that's what I think. Which is worth the paper it's printed on.

My phone cost me 500$!
Ps I agree

 

[wsume99]

Lots of batches of solid rocket fuel means that production is ramping up, which means more availability which means that prices might actually come down.

That article speaks to motor manufacturing but I recall reading somewhere there was either one or two domestic AP suppliers. Maybe it was production locations, not sure. I think the problem is demand for AP is going up but we're not increasing supply in terms of facilities that can produce AP in the US. More demand for solid propellant is going to mean less AP availability and more expensive motors for consumers.

 

[bad_idea]

There are signs AP will eventually be phased out of the rocket industry in favor of ammonium dinitramide (ADN). What the hobby does then is hard to say, aside from hybrids maybe making a comeback. The ATF lawsuit specifically addressed AP so far as I know.

Fortunately ADN is still quite expensive compared to AP, so there is still plenty of impetus for AP production. Whether prices rise or fall, it would seem likely that surplus trickles down to the hobby for some time to come.

 

[CoyoteNumber2]

There are signs AP will eventually be phased out of the rocket industry in favor of ammonium dinitramide (ADN).

Source?

 

[bad_idea]

Source?

Environmental concerns about perchlorates leading to tighter regulation of both production and consumption, lower observable exhaust, higher Isp.

 

[jsdemar]

Environmental concerns about perchlorates leading to tighter regulation of both production and consumption, lower observable exhaust, higher Isp.

The bulk of solid motor production still uses AP. There are some higher-energy military propellants for special purposes. The "green" propellant push is still expensive and not mainstream, from what I've heard.

There is only one manufacturer of AP in the US (Aerotech is located down the road from them). China is making it difficult and expensive to import now. France is a large source but all allocated and expensive. Other sources such as India have QC issues (I've received samples).

I think it will take some time to turn around, if/when more AP is produced in the US. The rest of the ingredients in APCP are not as critical. I don't think there will be a shortage of hobby/HPR motors, but prices will likely keep rising. Besides the AP, manpower and shipping costs are driving up everything.

 

[rocket_troy]

There is only one manufacturer of AP in the US (Aerotech is located down the road from them). China is making it difficult and expensive to import now. France is a large source but all allocated and expensive. Other sources such as India have QC issues (I've received samples).

John,
Can you elaborate on the QC issues from the Indian samples? I've heard the measured particle sizes can be larger than nominated.

TP

 

[CoyoteNumber2]

Environmental concerns about perchlorates leading to tighter regulation of both production and consumption, lower observable exhaust, higher Isp.

Ok, but is that your speculation or can you provide a citation?

 

[jsdemar]

John,
Can you elaborate on the QC issues from the Indian samples? I've heard the measured particle sizes can be larger than nominated.

TP

India has their own spec and does not follow US mil-spec for AP. Beyond the particle size/shape/distribution, there are some differences in impurities and density. Everything has to be recharacterized. China has also done some minor changes to meet their internal specs.

 

[bad_idea]

Ok, but is that your speculation or can you provide a citation?

I chose the word "signs" rather than the word "evidence" for a reason.

Nonetheless you can find a good deal of informed speculation on this topic if you search for papers about ADN. This one gives a good overview of the problems of synthesis (there are many, contributing to the current high cost) and the potential applications, and provides a number of references:

A review on the high energy oxidizer ammonium dinitramide: Its synthesis, thermal decomposition, hygroscopicity, and application in energetic materials

Generally no single paper touches on everything I mentioned above, but if you follow the rabbit hole from papers to references to papers to references to papers, you begin to get a picture. That particular paper isn't the rabbit hole I went down when I looked into this before, but it's open access and appears to lead to the same warren.

The bulk of solid motor production still uses AP. There are some higher-energy military propellants for special purposes. The "green" propellant push is still expensive and not mainstream, from what I've heard.

Re. the former, agreed. Re. the latter, not yet, but environmental pushes don't generally come from industry but are instead imposed from the outside by regulators, and it's no secret perchlorates have been on the EPA's radar for a long time. Most recently they have decided not to act against perchlorates with the reasoning that perchlorate pollution levels are still low and the cost of water treatment was far lower than the cost to industry of further regulation, but they left the door open, and it's been pretty rare in my lifetime to see a door to environmental regulation close.

In any case, as mentioned above, I don't see this as an immediate concern, just something we should be aware of with respect to the future of the hobby. ADN isn't a viable option now away, being far to expensive to make and having too many problems to work around for it to be worth using for anything but very particular uses so far.

 

[sharkbait]

I chose the word "signs" rather than the word "evidence" for a reason.

Nonetheless you can find a good deal of informed speculation on this topic if you search for papers about ADN. This one gives a good overview of the problems of synthesis (there are many, contributing to the current high cost) and the potential applications, and provides a number of references:

A review on the high energy oxidizer ammonium dinitramide: Its synthesis, thermal decomposition, hygroscopicity, and application in energetic materials

Generally no single paper touches on everything I mentioned above, but if you follow the rabbit hole from papers to references to papers to references to papers, you begin to get a picture. That particular paper isn't the rabbit hole I went down when I looked into this before, but it's open access and appears to lead to the same warren.

Re. the former, agreed. Re. the latter, not yet, but environmental pushes don't generally come from industry but are instead imposed from the outside by regulators, and it's no secret perchlorates have been on the EPA's radar for a long time. Most recently they have decided not to act against perchlorates with the reasoning that perchlorate pollution levels are still low and the cost of water treatment was far lower than the cost to industry of further regulation, but they left the door open, and it's been pretty rare in my lifetime to see a door to environmental regulation close.

In any case, as mentioned above, I don't see this as an immediate concern, just something we should be aware of with respect to the future of the hobby. ADN isn't a viable option now away, being far to expensive to make and having too many problems to work around for it to be worth using for anything but very particular uses so far.

There always seems to be one thing or another in our hobby that faces supply issue panics, most recently was Black Powder.

AN, KNO3, KCLO4, and some others that may require some Tripoli rules changes are all options (for EX, probably not viable for commercial manufacturers though)

 

[bad_idea]

AN, KNO3, KCLO4, and some others that may require some Tripoli rules changes are all options (for EX, probably not viable for commercial manufacturers though)

Tripoli liberalized EX oxidizers greatly last September. Sugar propellants are still restricted to potassium nitrate, but the safety code now refers to composite propellant as "using one or more inorganic oxidizers dispersed in a carbon-based polymer binder" as opposed to the previous language of "using ammonium perchlorate or ammonium nitrate as oxidizer." The AFT still calls everything but APCP explosive though.

 

[tsmith1315]

AN, KNO3, KCLO4, and some others that may require some Tripoli rules changes are all options

The AFT still calls everything but APCP explosive though

While that's inconvenient and requires a higher level of commitment, it's something the hobby has lived with before. For someone who has bought into the tools and supplies for EX work, the cost of a LEUP may not be that much.

 

[Kelly]

Tripoli liberalized EX oxidizers greatly last September. Sugar propellants are still restricted to potassium nitrate

Sorta. Sugar propellants are restricted to "potassium nitrate as the PRIMARY oxidizer" - which means you are still free to experiment with up to 49% of the oxidizer being something other than KNO3.

 

[jsdemar]

Tripoli liberalized EX oxidizers greatly last September. Sugar propellants are still restricted to potassium nitrate, but the safety code now refers to composite propellant as "using one or more inorganic oxidizers dispersed in a carbon-based polymer binder" as opposed to the previous language of "using ammonium perchlorate or ammonium nitrate as oxidizer."

The Tripoli research committee did some pondering and wordsmithing.

 

[Art Upton]

My phone cost me 500$!
Ps I agree

Your paying WAY too much. I have never spent that kind of money on my phone. I still have a Pixel 3A I paid $250 FOR

Edit: AND If I get forced to 5G sometime in future, a Pixel 6 I can get by then will be $250

 

[sharkbait]

The Tripoli research committee did some pondering and wordsmithing.

Now on to that pesky carbon bases polymer binder restriction John

 

[bad_idea]

While that's inconvenient and requires a higher level of commitment, it's something the hobby has lived with before. For someone who has bought into the tools and supplies for EX work, the cost of a LEUP may not be that much.

Yes, survivable for the hobby, but far from ideal.

 

[rocket_troy]

There always seems to be one thing or another in our hobby that faces supply issue panics, most recently was Black Powder.

AN, KNO3, KCLO4, and some others that may require some Tripoli rules changes are all options (for EX, probably not viable for commercial manufacturers though)

I have experience with all the above and I wouldn't list AN or KClO4 as suitable alternatives. Just too easy to destroy hardware with them.

TP

 

[jsdemar]

Now on to that pesky carbon bases polymer binder restriction John

Don't be silly (putty).

 

[boatgeek]

Re. the former, agreed. Re. the latter, not yet, but environmental pushes don't generally come from industry but are instead imposed from the outside by regulators, and it's no secret perchlorates have been on the EPA's radar for a long time. Most recently they have decided not to act against perchlorates with the reasoning that perchlorate pollution levels are still low and the cost of water treatment was far lower than the cost to industry of further regulation, but they left the door open, and it's been pretty rare in my lifetime to see a door to environmental regulation close.

It's worth pointing out that the EPA article you cited above is about regulating perchlorates in drinking water. And their decision not to add more regulations at this time stemmed mainly from the fact that most utilities are already doing a decent job of keeping perchlorates out of their drinking water. While it's theoretically possible that EPA could come back and regulate perchlorates in drinking water, it seems like there's relatively little chance that change would impact ammonium perchlorate production for rocket fuel, at least as long as nobody goes and dumps a batch of APCP into an aquifer recharge area. It might make producing/storing/transporting/using perchlorates somewhat more expensive if the users had to prevent perchlorates from getting into water supplies.

 

[cbrarick]

What the hobby does then is hard to say, aside from hybrids maybe making a comeback.

Bad_idea, that's just hybrid fan wishful thinking. Why would manufactures using AP change formulations to ADN? Why spend the money to reinvent the wheel?

Fortunately ADN is still quite expensive compared to AP, so there is still plenty of impetus for AP production. Whether prices rise or fall, it would seem likely that surplus trickles down to the hobby for some time to come.

there's always AP to be had, the only question is are you willing to pay the price?
We saw super cheap AP during the shuttle years due to the amount of AP rolling around, prices went up when they stopped flying them. So there's a bit of a trickle down effect.
Since then, at least in the EX world, many of us have banded together to make large group purchases to get the price down. My last AP400 buy was about what I paid 10 years ago. SLS will really help keep lots of AP in the system now. Don't forget that it's also used in fireworks, multiple industrial applications and in some lab processes. So even if solid boosters all go to ADN, there will still be a need

 

[bad_idea]

It's worth pointing out that the EPA article you cited above is about regulating perchlorates in drinking water. And their decision not to add more regulations at this time stemmed mainly from the fact that most utilities are already doing a decent job of keeping perchlorates out of their drinking water.

That's part of it. Another part is they wanted to crack down on perchlorates hard about a dozen years ago, did a cost analysis and realized it was prohibitively expensive to industry comparted to the cost of better water treatement, then spent more time studying the issue and decided the current state of water treatment is good enough for now.

Bad_idea, that's just hybrid fan wishful thinking. Why would manufactures using AP change formulations to ADN? Why spend the money to reinvent the wheel?

First, I am not a hybrid fan.

Second, you are replying to a hypothetical scenario in which AP became unavailable so manufacturers would have to find a solution. You may find that unlikely or impossible, that's fine, but the answer "why spend the money to reinvent the wheel" was baked into the hypothetical. If it never happens, they won't. If it does, they will.

Don't forget that it's also used in fireworks, multiple industrial applications and in some lab processes.

I have not forgotten that at all. Indeed, reading papers on perchlorate replacements shows rocketry is far from the only industry where researchers are looking for alternatives under the assumption that perchorates will be increasingly heavily regulated. Importance to industry and lack of affordable substitutes for now will keep perchlorates around for a long time, but I doubt forever.

 

[AeroTech]

There are signs AP will eventually be phased out of the rocket industry in favor of ammonium dinitramide (ADN). What the hobby does then is hard to say, aside from hybrids maybe making a comeback. The ATF lawsuit specifically addressed AP so far as I know.

Fortunately ADN is still quite expensive compared to AP, so there is still plenty of impetus for AP production. Whether prices rise or fall, it would seem likely that surplus trickles down to the hobby for some time to come.

Honestly I don’t see that ever happening. I don’t see ADN prices ever coming close to AP, it’s lower density, lower available % oxygen and on top of that, ADN is an explosive. It’s main application is in minimum smoke propellants.

 

[Antares JS]

SLS will really help keep lots of AP in the system now.

Given SLS's low flight cadence, especially compared to shuttle, I have a feeling its particular effect is going to be negligible. Vulcan needing SRB's seems likely to have a bigger impact.

 

[ghostfather]

I understand that ADN also has a problem with being hygroscopic, similar to Ammonium Nitrate. That requires careful storage.

 

[bad_idea]

I understand that ADN also has a problem with being hygroscopic, similar to Ammonium Nitrate. That requires careful storage.

The manufacturing difficulties are pretty horrible too.

 

[schworer]

The other thing to keep in mind is the ongoing military market demand for AP. Weapons require very characterized propellant produced under tight quality standards, and the solid propellant needs to have a long storage life and be relatively impervious to environmental effects such as temperature ranges and rough handling. If the propellant is changed it will impact the weapon's flight performance, which then impacts the guidance system, and other associated subsystems on the weapon and the aircraft or surface based fire control systems. DoD and defense contractors are not going to want to tinker with the proven propellant formulations for existing weapons systems that are in service unless there is a huge performance advantage in going with a newer propellant that justifies a new systems engineering and test cycle.....both of which are time consuming and very expensive. To the extent that AP is used in military systems, there will be an ongong market requirement for its production.