Anti-satellite warfare

[boatgeek]

So the purported Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapon has been all over the news in the last few days. On another forum, I got into a discussion about them. My theory was that they were a paper tiger, since destroying our satellites (eg GPS, spy sats) would also take out theirs, and we have a much better capability to rebuild our constellations quickly. The other person’s theory was that the destructive raid of the weapon could be small enough to target individual satellites. About midway through the discussion, I realized that I really didn’t know what I was talking about. So here I am in a form where people do know what they’re talking about.

So in to some questions.
1. Could one reasonably use space nukes for targeted destruction of satellites? In other words, would the shock and EMP be fairly localized, or would it wipe out whole swathes of the sky?

2. Would nukes in space be better or worse space junk generators than standard anti-satellite missiles?

3. If you were going to disable satellites without generating a lot of space junk, how would you do it?

4. How many of the 31 GPS satellites in orbit would you have to disable to create meaningful numbers of dead spots where you couldn’t get a fix at all?

My first thought for 3 is to attack solar arrays with lasers. Even burning out a third of the cells would seriously impact a satellite’s capability.

For 4, I was guessing 8-12.

 

[NTP2]

A EMP would be short range, it’s basically a magnet so the target needs to be inside the magnetic field. A nuclear blast would not be very effective as far as kinetic damage is concerned as in space it’s just light and hot gas so I’d need to be really close to do anything with that, but the EMP would be much longer range so maybe it would be effective. And lastly if it’s a EMP then it would basically stop the electrical systems so it would be better because it would not turn into a shotgun.

Ps I should note that I’m not a EMP expert but it makes sense to me.

 

[Alan15578]

I think in the old Reagan era Star Wars days, there was concept for a nuclear pumped X-ray satellite weapon. The X-rays would shoot out laser like from rods before the device destroyed itself.

The GPS satellites are in very high orbits. It takes about 6 hours to reach from the ground, and by then the war would be over.

 

[cls]

latest stories are of nuclear pumped directed energy attacks (x rays or something), not a disbursed nuclear explosion. So it would be targeted at one place in orbit.

But the latest stories also say this threat is not imminent.

 

[boatgeek]

latest stories are of nuclear pumped directed energy attacks (x rays or something), not a disbursed nuclear explosion. So it would be targeted at one place in orbit.

But the latest stories also say this threat is not imminent.

So this would presumably be aimed rather than shotgun. I’m still having some trouble with the premise. Setting off a nuke in space pretty much guarantees a shooting war, and does Russia really need another one of those?

 

[MClark]

I think in the old Reagan era Star Wars days, there was concept for a nuclear pumped X-ray satellite weapon. The X-rays would shoot out laser like from rods before the device destroyed itself.

The GPS satellites are in very high orbits. It takes about 6 hours to reach from the ground, and by then the war would be over.

I remember an article in Aviation Week.
Basically a laser powered by sitting on a nuke.
They described the test conditions as "harsh."

 

[Worsaer]

Take a look at the nuclear test in 1962 over Hawaii, Starfish Prime. The Soviets also performed high altitude tests. Depending on the weapon, the effects could be widespread.

 

[jderimig]

So this would presumably be aimed rather than shotgun. I’m still having some trouble with the premise. Setting off a nuke in space pretty much guarantees a shooting war, and does Russia really need another one of those?

The issue is destabilization. MADD keeps the peace because a nuclear first strike can be detected in time to retaliate massively. We depend on space tech to detect the first strike and keep MADD valid. A satellite attack would/could be interpreted as a first strike because we would be blind. Though not the speculation here, but an orbiting EMP weapon could make a response to a first strike ineffective. Its the not weapon, its the stability in keeping MADD a deterrent.

 

[RobertH3]

Nuclear powered X-Ray laser. A detonation generates primarily soft X-Rays. Push em' through a tube coherently and Zam, Death ray.
I don't think it ever worked though the idea is all over science fiction.
SDI did fly a particle beam equipped experiment back in the 80's - it used Mercury since it ionizes at <600 volts and individual atoms are heavy. From cold war reading (can't remember which history book), the idea was to ionize the mercury, accelerate the nuclei, and recombine the electrons at the business end so you had a neutral particle beam. If this one worked, orbit would be full of them, so it probably didn't either.
SDI was psychological warfare as the Soviet Union believed we could do it. All that mattered.

 

[RobertH3]

So is this.

 

[boatgeek]

The issue is destabilization. MADD keeps the peace because a nuclear first strike can be detected in time to retaliate massively. We depend on space tech to detect the first strike and keep MADD valid. A satellite attack would/could be interpreted as a first strike because we would be blind. Though not the speculation here, but an orbiting EMP weapon could make a response to a first strike ineffective. Its the not weapon, its the stability in keeping MADD a deterrent.

We do still have MAD deterrent with the Trident fleet, though it may be harder to get a second strike in the air before a first strike lands if satellites get blinded. Not saying it’s not destabilizing, but it still doesn’t make a nuclear war a one-sided affair.

Nuclear powered X-Ray laser. A detonation generates primarily soft X-Rays. Push em' through a tube coherently and Zam, Death ray.
I don't think it ever worked though the idea is all over science fiction.
SDI did fly a particle beam equipped experiment back in the 80's - it used Mercury since it ionizes at <600 volts and individual atoms are heavy. From cold war reading (can't remember which history book), the idea was to ionize the mercury, accelerate the nuclei, and recombine the electrons at the business end so you had a neutral particle beam. If this one worked, orbit would be full of them, so it probably didn't either.
SDI was psychological warfare as the Soviet Union believed we could do it. All that mattered.

So this is still a one time use weapon, killing one satellite each, right? What size nuke are we talking about? If it’s any significant size, I would think that testing would be obvious. Then we would be watching very closely for the Russians putting 10-20 classified things in orbit. Depending on how many they can stack on a Soyuz, that’s also 5 or so years worth of launches at the current cadence.

 

[MClark]

I thought we were supposed to be EMPed 20 years ago by the Chinese.
Nuke set off in space over Kansas and we were to go into the Stone Age.

 

[jqavins]

Most of the nuclear EMP (NEMP) phenomenon effect arises from interaction between the gamma rays from the explosion and air molecules. That means that high altitude blasts, including LEO blasts, will have a strong effect on the ground, as gamma rays travel through the upper atmosphere. But the effect on other objects in orbit are not nearly as great.

The damaging effects on orbiting satellites are usually due to factors other than EMP. In the Starfish Prime nuclear test, most damage was to the satellites' solar panels while passing through radiation belts created by the explosion.​

A EMP would be... basically a magnet...

Um, no.

A nuclear electromagnetic pulse (nuclear EMP or NEMP) is a burst of electromagnetic radiation created by a nuclear explosion. The resulting rapidly varying electric and magnetic fields may couple with electrical and electronic systems to produce damaging current and voltage surges. The specific characteristics of a particular nuclear EMP event vary according to a number of factors, the most important of which is the altitude of the detonation...​

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse​

The popular media often depict EMP effects incorrectly, causing misunderstandings among the public and even professionals, and official efforts have been made in the United States to set the record straight.[43] The United States Space Command commissioned science educator Bill Nye to narrate and produce a video called "Hollywood vs. EMP", so that inaccurate Hollywood fiction would not confuse those who must deal with real EMP events. The video is not available to the general public.​

Bit of a shame; I'd love to see the video.

 

[heada]

LEO based objects could be impacted (spy sats, launch detect sats, etc.) but sats like GPS are in a MUCH higher orbit and wouldn't be impacted. Spy sats are 100km to 300km typically. GPS is at 22,200km. Most comm sats are in higher orbits as well.

We did Starfish Prime in 1962 and it had an impact on only 3 sats in LEO but had an impact in the atmosphere for ~2600km EMPs in space are much less of a threat than in the atmosphere due to needing N2 and O2 to enhance the output. Laser or kinetic would be the best way to interact with sats at distance.

An Arleigh Burke-class destroyer launched an SM3 missile and took out a LEO sat back in ~2008 and an F15 took out a LEO sat back in the 80's Taking sats out of LEO is trivial now.

 

[NTP2]

Most of the nuclear EMP (NEMP) phenomenon effect arises from interaction between the gamma rays from the explosion and air molecules. That means that high altitude blasts, including LEO blasts, will have a strong effect on the ground, as gamma rays travel through the upper atmosphere. But the effect on other objects in orbit are not nearly as great.

The damaging effects on orbiting satellites are usually due to factors other than EMP. In the Starfish Prime nuclear test, most damage was to the satellites' solar panels while passing through radiation belts created by the explosion.​

Um, no.

A nuclear electromagnetic pulse (nuclear EMP or NEMP) is a burst of electromagnetic radiation created by a nuclear explosion. The resulting rapidly varying electric and magnetic fields may couple with electrical and electronic systems to produce damaging current and voltage surges. The specific characteristics of a particular nuclear EMP event vary according to a number of factors, the most important of which is the altitude of the detonation...​

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse​

The popular media often depict EMP effects incorrectly, causing misunderstandings among the public and even professionals, and official efforts have been made in the United States to set the record straight.[43] The United States Space Command commissioned science educator Bill Nye to narrate and produce a video called "Hollywood vs. EMP", so that inaccurate Hollywood fiction would not confuse those who must deal with real EMP events. The video is not available to the general public.​

Bit of a shame; I'd love to see the video.

I wonder why not, the if the point is correct them? Also I know I was skipping a lot and but I still say it’s basically a magnetic field pulsing, I didn’t know that it matters what the air density is, interesting!

Edit also from Wikipedia, E1 is a brief but intense electromagnetic field.

 

[Johnly]

LEO based objects could be impacted (spy sats, launch detect sats, etc.) but sats like GPS are in a MUCH higher orbit and wouldn't be impacted. Spy sats are 100km to 300km typically. GPS is at 22,200km. Most comm sats are in higher orbits as well.

We did Starfish Prime in 1962 and it had an impact on only 3 sats in LEO but had an impact in the atmosphere for ~2600km EMPs in space are much less of a threat than in the atmosphere due to needing N2 and O2 to enhance the output. Laser or kinetic would be the best way to interact with sats at distance.

An Arleigh Burke-class destroyer launched an SM3 missile and took out a LEO sat back in ~2008 and an F15 took out a LEO sat back in the 80's Taking sats out of LEO is trivial now.

The W49 detonated as part of Starfish Prime had a yield was 1.4 MT, and is well above the nominal yield of currently deployed US nuclear stockpile. Hard to say what the Russians currently have deployed.

 

[jqavins]

Also I know I was skipping a lot and but I still say it’s basically a magnetic field pulsing

But when you say it's "basically a magnet", and it's actually an EM wave, you're equating the magnet on the fridge to the inside of the microwave oven next to it. It's not basically a magnet any more than it's basically a battery. Even if "basically a magnetic field pulsing", that's what you get from AC in an electromagnet, still not a wave.

LEO based objects could be impacted (spy sats, launch detect sats, etc.) but sats like GPS are in a MUCH higher orbit and wouldn't be impacted. Spy sats are 100km to 300km typically. GPS is at 22,200km. Most comm sats are in higher orbits as well.

You've mixed up some numbers there. The GPS satellites are at about 20,200 km (from good old Wikipedia) and GEO is at 35,768 km, or about 22,200 miles.

I don't think the Russians would want to knock out GPS even if they could, as that would probably hurt them as much as it would us.

 

[NTP2]

But when you say it's "basically a magnet", and it's actually an EM wave, you're equating the magnet on the fridge to the inside of the microwave oven next to it. It's not basically a magnet any more than it's basically a battery. Even if "basically a magnetic field pulsing", that's what you get from AC in an electromagnet, still not a wave.

I think you got confused by my wording, I meant that it’s a wave of high strength magnetic field that can cause massive voltage spikes in microelectronics.

 

[heada]

You've mixed up some numbers there. The GPS satellites are at about 20,200 km (from good old Wikipedia) and GEO is at 35,768 km, or about 22,200 miles.

what's 2000 km between friends?

 

[cls]

Some GPS sats fly through the Van Allen belts repeatedly and survive, they are very well protected.

 

[Art Upton]

Some GPS sats fly through the Van Allen belts repeatedly and survive, they are very well protected.

But , But, But the no moon landing folks say nothing can shield the belts

 

[rharshberger]

But when you say it's "basically a magnet", and it's actually an EM wave, you're equating the magnet on the fridge to the inside of the microwave oven next to it. It's not basically a magnet any more than it's basically a battery. Even if "basically a magnetic field pulsing", that's what you get from AC in an electromagnet, still not a wave.


You've mixed up some numbers there. The GPS satellites are at about 20,200 km (from good old Wikipedia) and GEO is at 35,768 km, or about 22,200 miles.

I don't think the Russians would want to knock out GPS even if they could, as that would probably hurt them as much as it would us.

The Russians could probably care less about GPS, they depend on GLONASS which is their own version of our GPS system, but they probably do use our system as well, and we probably use their system too. In the event of a major war I would not be surprised to see the GPS and GLONASS systems both become fully encrypted and restricted to military use only.

 

[cls]

But , But, But the no moon landing folks say nothing can shield the belts

Oh gawd, flashbacks of my misspent childhood watching bad black and white movies... Journey to the Moon! Watch out for the meteor storm! Navigate through the asteroids! Taken hostage by the tall Amazons with gold lame bikinis and high heels.. oh, oops, that was another movie.

 

[Bill Hanson]

There's a lot of good discussion in the RAND monography, "Space Weapons, Earth Wars" which is a good general look at a whole bunch of different ideas for both space-to-space and space-to-earth weapons. https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1209.html