NTP2
Well-Known Member
Yup it’s part high tech satellites and part people in cubicles counting sun spots (I did it once, never again).
A question for the astronomers among us
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Superb photos of solar activity, from todays's edition of Spaceweather.com:
AN X-FLARE FROM 'THE DANGER ZONE': Sunspot AR3576 erupted today (0653 UT) producing a brief but intense X2.5-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory saw huge plumes of plasma fly away from the blast site:
This composite was created by Senol Sanli of Bursa, Turkey
As these images show, AR3576 is no longer facing Earth. You might think that means our planet is safely outside the line of fire. In fact, the opposite is true. AR3576 is entering a 'danger zone' where the sun and Earth are magnetically connected. This phenomenon is explained in more detail below (See "The Danger of Sunspots That Don't Face Earth").
A remarkable aspect of this flare was its brevity. It lasted minutes rather than hour, and this mitigated its effect on Earth. Nevertheless, our planet did get hit with a pulse of energetic protons, shown here in a plot from NOAA's GOES18 satellite:
Any more X-flares from AR3576 this weekend could send more particles our way, triggering a full-fledged radiation storm. Possible effects include high-latitude radio blackouts, fogged cameras on Earth-orbiting satellites, and elevated levels of radiation on commercial air flights. Stay tuned. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
AN X-FLARE FROM 'THE DANGER ZONE': Sunspot AR3576 erupted today (0653 UT) producing a brief but intense X2.5-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory saw huge plumes of plasma fly away from the blast site:
This composite was created by Senol Sanli of Bursa, Turkey
As these images show, AR3576 is no longer facing Earth. You might think that means our planet is safely outside the line of fire. In fact, the opposite is true. AR3576 is entering a 'danger zone' where the sun and Earth are magnetically connected. This phenomenon is explained in more detail below (See "The Danger of Sunspots That Don't Face Earth").
A remarkable aspect of this flare was its brevity. It lasted minutes rather than hour, and this mitigated its effect on Earth. Nevertheless, our planet did get hit with a pulse of energetic protons, shown here in a plot from NOAA's GOES18 satellite:
Any more X-flares from AR3576 this weekend could send more particles our way, triggering a full-fledged radiation storm. Possible effects include high-latitude radio blackouts, fogged cameras on Earth-orbiting satellites, and elevated levels of radiation on commercial air flights. Stay tuned. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
New X-class flares:
DOUBLE X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE (UPDATED): Big sunspot AR3590 is as dangerous as it looks. Late yesterday (Feb. 21 @ 2307 UT), the active region produced a powerful X1.8-class solar flare with a shortwave radio blackoutover the western USA and Pacific Ocean. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:
Hours later (Feb. 22 @ 0635), the sunspot erupted again, producing an almost identical X1.7-class flare. Neither explosion produced a bright CME. This means the double flares will *not* cause a geomagnetic storm on Earth.
More explosions are in the offing. AR3590 has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for additional X-class explosions. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
DOUBLE X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE (UPDATED): Big sunspot AR3590 is as dangerous as it looks. Late yesterday (Feb. 21 @ 2307 UT), the active region produced a powerful X1.8-class solar flare with a shortwave radio blackoutover the western USA and Pacific Ocean. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:
Hours later (Feb. 22 @ 0635), the sunspot erupted again, producing an almost identical X1.7-class flare. Neither explosion produced a bright CME. This means the double flares will *not* cause a geomagnetic storm on Earth.
More explosions are in the offing. AR3590 has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for additional X-class explosions. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
Solar storm headed to Earth?
From NASA outlet, Spaceweather.com:
PROTONS ARE RAINING DOWN ON EARTH: An S2-class solar radiation storm is underway following the twin X-flares of March 23rd. This means energetic protons from the sun are raining down on Earth. Primary effects include an Arctic blackout of shortwave radio signals and slightly elevated radiation levels for aircraft flying over the poles. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.
A BIG CME IS COMING: Yesterday's X1-class solar flare (described below) hurled a bright CME toward Earth. NASA and NOAA models agree that the storm cloud should reach our planet by the early hours of March 25th (UT). A direct hit could spark strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with mid-latitude auroras in the USA and Europe.
SOHO coronagraphs captured this halo CME heading for Earth on March 23, 2024
Would you like a text message when the CME arrives? Sign up for our Space Weather Alert Service to receive instant notifications of CME impacts. CME alerts: SMS Text.
STRONG X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Yesterday, the sun produced a solar flare so strong, it took two sunspots to make it. Sunspots AR3614 and AR3615 exploded in tandem on March 23rd (0130 UT), directing their fire straight at Earth. A National Solar Observatory telescope in Australia recorded the double blast:
The explosion from AR3614 (top) was so violent it seemed to rip the fabric of the sun, while AR3615 (bottom) followed very close behind with a less intense blast of its own. The same sequence was captured in this movie from NASA's Solar Dyanamics Observatory.
While this may seem like an incredible coincidence, it probably didn't happen by chance. Researchers have long known that widely-spaced sunspots can explode in tandem. They're called "sympathetic solar flares." Occasionally, magnetic loops in the sun's corona fasten themselves to distant pairs of sunspots, allowing explosive instabilities to travel from one to the other. This has apparently happened to AR3614 and AR3615.
Some sympathetic flares are so much alike, they are considered to be twins. Yesterday's double-blast was not a perfect twin, but close enough. It shows that the two sunspots are linked, raising the possibility of more double-flares this weekend. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.
From NASA outlet, Spaceweather.com:
PROTONS ARE RAINING DOWN ON EARTH: An S2-class solar radiation storm is underway following the twin X-flares of March 23rd. This means energetic protons from the sun are raining down on Earth. Primary effects include an Arctic blackout of shortwave radio signals and slightly elevated radiation levels for aircraft flying over the poles. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.
A BIG CME IS COMING: Yesterday's X1-class solar flare (described below) hurled a bright CME toward Earth. NASA and NOAA models agree that the storm cloud should reach our planet by the early hours of March 25th (UT). A direct hit could spark strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with mid-latitude auroras in the USA and Europe.
SOHO coronagraphs captured this halo CME heading for Earth on March 23, 2024
Would you like a text message when the CME arrives? Sign up for our Space Weather Alert Service to receive instant notifications of CME impacts. CME alerts: SMS Text.
STRONG X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Yesterday, the sun produced a solar flare so strong, it took two sunspots to make it. Sunspots AR3614 and AR3615 exploded in tandem on March 23rd (0130 UT), directing their fire straight at Earth. A National Solar Observatory telescope in Australia recorded the double blast:
The explosion from AR3614 (top) was so violent it seemed to rip the fabric of the sun, while AR3615 (bottom) followed very close behind with a less intense blast of its own. The same sequence was captured in this movie from NASA's Solar Dyanamics Observatory.
While this may seem like an incredible coincidence, it probably didn't happen by chance. Researchers have long known that widely-spaced sunspots can explode in tandem. They're called "sympathetic solar flares." Occasionally, magnetic loops in the sun's corona fasten themselves to distant pairs of sunspots, allowing explosive instabilities to travel from one to the other. This has apparently happened to AR3614 and AR3615.
Some sympathetic flares are so much alike, they are considered to be twins. Yesterday's double-blast was not a perfect twin, but close enough. It shows that the two sunspots are linked, raising the possibility of more double-flares this weekend. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.
The more we learn about it the scarier it gets.
From spaceweather.com:
CME REPORT: A NASA model of recent CME activity suggests that a solar storm cloud could graze Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of April 26th. The slow-moving CME is heading mostly south of our planet, but its northern flank could deliver a glancing blow sufficient to spark a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. CME impact alerts: SMS Text
RAPID-FIRE PLASMA JETS: Sunspot complex AR3638-47 has been in a almost-constant state of eruption for days. This animation from earlier today shows multiple jets of plasma shooting into space in only a few hours:
Since last week, dozens of these jets have flown away from the sunspot group. All of them have missed Earth. The magnetic structure of the sunspot complex is guiding debris to the south--just far enough to miss our planet when the resulting CMEs pass nearby.
An exception might be on the way. One of the jets emitted on April 22nd *might* have an Earth-directed component. ETA: April 26th. Stay tuned. CME impact alerts: SMS Text
CME REPORT: A NASA model of recent CME activity suggests that a solar storm cloud could graze Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of April 26th. The slow-moving CME is heading mostly south of our planet, but its northern flank could deliver a glancing blow sufficient to spark a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. CME impact alerts: SMS Text
RAPID-FIRE PLASMA JETS: Sunspot complex AR3638-47 has been in a almost-constant state of eruption for days. This animation from earlier today shows multiple jets of plasma shooting into space in only a few hours:
Since last week, dozens of these jets have flown away from the sunspot group. All of them have missed Earth. The magnetic structure of the sunspot complex is guiding debris to the south--just far enough to miss our planet when the resulting CMEs pass nearby.
An exception might be on the way. One of the jets emitted on April 22nd *might* have an Earth-directed component. ETA: April 26th. Stay tuned. CME impact alerts: SMS Text
Aha! The true cause of global warming!From spaceweather.com:
CME REPORT: A NASA model of recent CME activity suggests that a solar storm cloud could graze Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of April 26th. The slow-moving CME is heading mostly south of our planet, but its northern flank could deliver a glancing blow sufficient to spark a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. CME impact alerts: SMS Text
RAPID-FIRE PLASMA JETS: Sunspot complex AR3638-47 has been in a almost-constant state of eruption for days. This animation from earlier today shows multiple jets of plasma shooting into space in only a few hours:
Since last week, dozens of these jets have flown away from the sunspot group. All of them have missed Earth. The magnetic structure of the sunspot complex is guiding debris to the south--just far enough to miss our planet when the resulting CMEs pass nearby.
An exception might be on the way. One of the jets emitted on April 22nd *might* have an Earth-directed component. ETA: April 26th. Stay tuned. CME impact alerts: SMS Text
Oddly enough, I always thought it was the true cause of ice ages! But I really don't know.
