Thoughts on the middle east conflicts.

[boatgeek]

...helicopter...pretty much same thing, they aren't known for reliability, some are better than others. Accident is what we hope is the result of the investigation, anything else will lead to finger pointing and a relations between countries getting even worse.

My son says he doesn’t have a phobia of helicopters-it’s an entirely rational fear.

I agree with posts above. Extremely convenient for a number of nations. Which may give them all plausible deniability. And of course Iran may wish to blame someone else rather than mechanical/maintenance failures.

 

[NateB]

...helicopter...pretty much same thing, they aren't known for reliability, some are better than others. Accident is what we hope is the result of the investigation, anything else will lead to finger pointing and a relations between countries getting even worse.

Poor visibility with fog in the mountains is one of the most common causes of helicopter crashes. Helicopters have a lot of redundant systems and have the advantage of being able to attempt a landing almost anywhere.

They are now reporting the crash "isn't believed to be severe", but who knows. I'd be skeptical of misdirection.

 

[rharshberger]

Poor visibility with fog in the mountains is one of the most common causes of helicopter crashes. Helicopters have a lot of redundant systems and have the advantage of being able to attempt a landing almost anywhere.

They are now reporting the crash "isn't believed to be severe", but who knows. I'd be skeptical of misdirection.

Well maintained helicopters generally work well, military helicopters on the other hand can have operational readiness issues....a lot.

I dont know how many time when I was in the service we heard "chopper delayed due to mechanical issues...."

 

[Art Upton]

Poor visibility with fog in the mountains is one of the most common causes of helicopter crashes. Helicopters have a lot of redundant systems and have the advantage of being able to attempt a landing almost anywhere.

They are now reporting the crash "isn't believed to be severe", but who knows. I'd be skeptical of misdirection.

If they have not found them, and have no communications with them; how can they assume anything about the crash ?

 

[NateB]

There are reports the Iranian Government claims to have a position signal from the ship and contact with someone on board. Assuming that's true, even with a known position it might be difficult to get to the crash site with the reported fog and remote terrain.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...ts-convoy-accident-says-strate-tv-2024-05-19/

 

[jderimig]

There are a couples things here in the reporting that makes you go hmm:
1. Reports that heli crashed. How would that be known?
2. Reports of "hard landing". Same question?
3. If the heli flew into a mountain in the fog, and communication was lost, which is can explain 1 or 2, the odds of survival are Kobe slim. My opinion only.
4. Do Iranian avionics have ground truth GPS I wonder?

 

[boatgeek]

There are a couples things here in the reporting that makes you go hmm:
1. Reports that heli crashed. How would that be known?
2. Reports of "hard landing". Same question?
3. If the heli flew into a mountain in the fog, and communication was lost, which is can explain 1 or 2, the odds of survival are Kobe slim. My opinion only.
4. Do Iranian avionics have ground truth GPS I wonder?

If it’s true that they have a position signal and communications from the crash site (per @NateB #515), then I think 1 or 2 are knowable, though the line between a hard landing and a crash is very wide and fuzzy.

I don’t entirely believe the “hard landing but everyone’s fine; it’s just too foggy to go pick them up now” line. That sounds suspiciously like something the flacks would say if they don’t know if the president is alive or dead and don’t want to admit that. They can always correct later. And who knows, it might even be true.

The other issue is that even if the incident is blamed on weather/mechanical failure, there will be conspiracy theories all around that it was really Israel/the US/Ukraine behind it all.

 

[cwbullet]

The area where the crash is reported is very rural.

 

[NateB]

AP is now reporting the crash site was located with no signs of survivors.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-426c6f4ae2dd1f0801c73875bb696f48

Different sources were stating the ship is a Bell 212 or 412. The weather looked terrible from different pictures. Those helicopters could be IFR, but who knows what rules they operate under over there.

 

[teepot]

It's 1:54 PST. 19 minutes ago Reuters reported that Raisi is dead. The state media confirmed it.

 

[NTP2]

It's 1:54 PST. 19 minutes ago Reuters reported that Raisi is dead. The state media confirmed it.

well’p, that is not good.

 

[Antares JS]

Looks like there's a VP who has taken over until the next election. Offhand, it doesn't look like this will have a significant effect on any political situation. Iran will more than likely keep doing what they're doing.

I did see a statement where someone blamed the US for the crash because of the embargo on aircraft parts.

 

[Peartree]

Yesterday's news was that they've found 50 tunnels passing under the Egyptian border (and hundreds elsewhere in Rafah). Some big enough to practically drive through.

Some hostages are now believed to be in Egypt or Turkey. (My personal belief, sadly, is that any remaining, unreturned, hostages are probably dead).

Egypt now belived to have been actively supplying arms to Hamas and only "negotiating" for peace in order to get US money and arms for itself.

Accusations are being made that many western politicians, including the United States, were aware of these things and profited from it, explaining why some politicians were so adamant that Israel stay out of Rafah.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/idf-...s-in-rafah-including-50-that-cross-into-egypt

 

[Dotini]

Looks like there's a VP who has taken over until the next election. Offhand, it doesn't look like this will have a significant effect on any political situation. Iran will more than likely keep doing what they're doing.

I did see a statement where someone blamed the US for the crash because of the embargo on aircraft parts.

I think Raisi, elected only a few years ago, was in line to become the next Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei is getting old.

 

[Antares JS]

Egypt now belived to have been actively supplying arms to Hamas and only "negotiating" for peace in order to get US money and arms for itself.

Accusations are being made that many western politicians, including the United States, were aware of these things and profited from it, explaining why smell politicians were so adamant that Israel stay out of Rafah.

I wouldn't put any of this past any politician, American or not.

 

[Antares JS]

I think Raisi, elected only a few years ago, was in line to become the next Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei is getting old.

I'm sure there were other candidates, even if he was the top one. Khamenei would have to be rather stupid to put all his effort into mentoring only one potential successor. Even kings used to try to have "the heir and the spare" back in the day.

 

[Dotini]

Yesterday's news was that they've found 50 tunnels passing under the Egyptian border (and hundreds elsewhere in Rafah). Some big enough to practically drive through.

Some hostages are now believed to be in Egypt or Turkey. (My personal belief, sadly, is that any remaining, unreturned, hostages are probably dead).

Egypt now belived to have been actively supplying arms to Hamas and only "negotiating" for peace in order to get US money and arms for itself.

Accusations are being made that many western politicians, including the United States, were aware of these things and profited from it, explaining why smell politicians were so adamant that Israel stay out of Rafah.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/idf-...s-in-rafah-including-50-that-cross-into-egypt

These may very well be grounds for tearing up the Camp David Accords. But I don't think anyone really wants to do this this right now.

 

[jqavins]

Yesterday's news was that they've found 50 tunnels passing under the Egyptian border (and hundreds elsewhere in Rafah). Some big enough to practically drive through.

I live in Steuben County, NY, which borders Pennsylvania to the south. In the crazy and impossible event that the State of New York cut my county off, destroying or blocking most of the roads in and out, putting check points on the remaining ones, walling it off, and requiring special permits to leave or enter, I would be among the first to start digging secret tunnels into Penn. The difference, or course, is that I'd smuggle in food, fuel, medical supplies, building materials, etc., not weapons.

Some hostages are now believed to be in Egypt or Turkey...

Egypt now belived to have been actively supplying arms to Hamas and only "negotiating" for peace in order to get US money and arms for itself.

If true, that's both rather surprising and very disappointing.

explaining why smell politicians were so adamant that Israel stay out of Rafah.

"Smell politicians"? Is that a typo?

 

[Steve Shannon]

"Smell politicians"? Is that a typo?

Auto correct. You start typing “some” but miss the ‘o’ and “sme” becomes “smell”.

 

[jqavins]

The first thing I do each time I have to get a new phone is turn off all that autocorrect garbage.

 

[boatgeek]

Yesterday's news was that they've found 50 tunnels passing under the Egyptian border (and hundreds elsewhere in Rafah). Some big enough to practically drive through.

Some hostages are now believed to be in Egypt or Turkey. (My personal belief, sadly, is that any remaining, unreturned, hostages are probably dead).

Egypt now belived to have been actively supplying arms to Hamas and only "negotiating" for peace in order to get US money and arms for itself.

Accusations are being made that many western politicians, including the United States, were aware of these things and profited from it, explaining why smell politicians were so adamant that Israel stay out of Rafah.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/idf-...s-in-rafah-including-50-that-cross-into-egypt

They have been tunnels under the Egypt-Gaza border for decades, so it’s no surprise that Israel found them there or that politicians from anywhere knew that they existed. I’d need evidence and not just accusations to believe that western politicians were profiting from the smuggling though. Anyone can make an accusation.

Is been a big news day in the Middle East. ICC prosecutors just confirmed that they are seeking arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant on the Israeli side and Sinwar and two top lieutenants on the Hamas side.

 

[Bravo52]

...The difference, or course, is that I'd smuggle in food, fuel, medical supplies, building materials, etc., not weapons.

What's the difference between those in the hands of an oppressive government? Hamas uses all of those as "weapons". It just depends on who the intended target is.

 

[jqavins]

What's the difference between those in the hands of an oppressive government? Hamas uses all of those as "weapons". It just depends on who the intended target is.

I don't understand the question, I think.

• What the difference between "food, fuel, medical supplies, building materials, etc." and weapons, no matter who's hands they're in? Simple: in the scenario I laid out, I'd be smuggling in items to help with living, not items to help with killing. In that absurd scenario, I'd be fighting New York in court, not murdering innocent New Yorkers.
• The analogy is that I'd support Palestinians smuggling in food, fuel, medical supplies, building materials, etc., if only Hamas were not also using the tunnels to smuggling in weapons.
• Of course Hamas uses all those weapons. The weapons that are smuggled through the tunnels to Egypt are not in the hands of an oppressive government, they're in the hands of a terrorist organization Did you somehow think I meant that weapons are being smuggled in for the IDF?
• I don't know why you've place quotation marks around "weapons". Should I been more specific? OK.
  • The difference, of course, is that I'd smuggle in food, fuel, medical supplies, building materials, etc., not guns, ammunition, bombs, etc.

 

[James53]

Did Raisi recently call Putin "that short little Infidel" when he thought no one was listening?
Otherwise, I'm sure it was A.I. that caused the crash...Skynet has decided humans don't know what the hell we're doing.

 

[boatgeek]

Did Raisi recently call Putin "that short little Infidel" when he thought no one was listening?
Otherwise, I'm sure it was A.I. that caused the crash...Skynet has decided humans don't know what the hell we're doing.

Naw, when Putin murders someone, you know Putin murdered them. Unless you believe that they were extremely careless near windows or nerve agents.

 

[NTP2]

Naw, when Putin murders someone, you know Putin murdered them. Unless you believe that they were extremely careless near windows or nerve agents.

Or like dropping dead in prison camps.

If it’s an assassin (I figure the odds at 50/50) it’s probably Israel.

 

[Peartree]

Auto correct. You start typing “some” but miss the ‘o’ and “sme” becomes “smell”.

Thanks. I couldn't even remember what I had originally written. Autocorrect often even changes words that I spelled correctly because it thinks I intended something else.

 

[Peartree]

These may very well be grounds for tearing up the Camp David Accords. But I don't think anyone really wants to do this this right now.

The thinking that I saw is that while the Egyptian government is in one camp, they have little control over the Islamic Brotherhood which "hates Palestinians but hates Jews more.

 

[Peartree]

They have been tunnels under the Egypt-Gaza border for decades, so it’s no surprise that Israel found them there or that politicians from anywhere knew that they existed. I’d need evidence and not just accusations to believe that western politicians were profiting from the smuggling though. Anyone can make an accusation.

That tunnels existed is no surprise. The principal reason the IDF wanted to go into Rafah was to shut them down. The surprise, I think, was the number and the size of them.

As to western politicians, "profiting" can be many things that aren't money, but money wouldn't surprise me either.

 

[Bravo52]

I don't understand the question, I think.

The question was posed mostly as rhetorical.

@jqavins, the problem with your hypothetical scenario is you are applying western logic to a non-western situation. Unfortunately you try to make the distinction between Hamas the terrorist organization and Hamas the government. They are one in the same. They are the government that Gazan's overwhelming voted for and support at what has been reported in some circles as "090%" of the people. I don't know how accurate the "90%" is but Hamas the terrorist organization was overwhelmingly voted into the government role. I'm sure there are some besides the 10% who've now rethought that decision.

Ideally the "food, fuel, medical supplies, building materials, etc." would only be used for good, however, there is some evidence that it is not in this situation. It's been said that "Life always gets in the way of plans." Or, more accurately, "reality" gets in the way of plans. Clearly, I took your comment to mean you'd only do "good" things with tunnels, but in Gaza, that's not reality.