Thoughts on the middle east conflicts.

[teepot]

it wasn’t ok, and Israel should learn from our mistakes. This applies to Using large scale military to combat terror as well, it really just makes it worse.

First, I think you should read some WWII history about Japan and the mindset of both the general population and military. After reading the predictions about what the expected results would be if the US had to do and amphibious landing were you might change your mind about how the war was stopped. As @OverTheTop posted the casualties on both sides would have been astronomical and every city in Japan would have been flattened. General Curtis LeMay had already ordered the fire bombing of Tokyo and other cities. Japanese houses were paper and wood. The fire storms were so intense people would burst into flames. If something like that happened now it would be a war crime. Stopping the war with atom bombs was probably the best way to save the lives of the Japanese.
Second, The number of soldiers, the quantity and types of weapons and their sophistication makes Hamas an army in my book. Just about the only thing Hamas doesn't have are tanks. They are inflecting a lot of casualties on Israel. If Hamas wasn't a capable army this conflict wouldn't have happened.

 

[cwbullet]

First, I think you should read some WWII history about Japan and the mindset of both the general population and military. After reading the predictions about what the expected results would be if the US had to do and amphibious landing were you might change your mind about how the war was stopped. As @OverTheTop posted the casualties on both sides would have been astronomical and every city in Japan would have been flattened. General Curtis LeMay had already ordered the fire bombing of Tokyo and other cities. Japanese houses were paper and wood. The fire storms were so intense people would burst into flames. If something like that happened now it would be a war crime. Stopping the war with atom bombs was probably the best way to save the lives of the Japanese.

Very true. There have been many studies to back up the theory that the loss of life was less with Atomic Bombs. My grandfather was a surgeon with the Army. He was very skeptical of Nukes after what he saw in Japan, but he often said that using them was the lesser of two evils.

Second,
The number of soldiers, the quantity and types of weapons and their sophistication makes Hamas an army in my book. Just about the only thing Hamas doesn't have are tanks. They are inflecting a lot of casualties on Israel. If Hamas wasn't a capable army this conflict wouldn't have happened.

Hamas is both a terrorist organization and Army. We will not know the truth until the war is over. I would wager that we are getting partial truths out both sides and the news organizations are terrible. Hopefully, this war ensure that both sides understand that peace is the only solution and recognize both people and cultures have a right to exist.

 

[NTP2]

First, I think you should read some WWII history about Japan and the mindset of both the general population and military. After reading the predictions about what the expected results would be if the US had to do and amphibious landing were you might change your mind about how the war was stopped. As @OverTheTop posted the casualties on both sides would have been astronomical and every city in Japan would have been flattened. General Curtis LeMay had already ordered the fire bombing of Tokyo and other cities. Japanese houses were paper and wood. The fire storms were so intense people would burst into flames. If something like that happened now it would be a war crime. Stopping the war with atom bombs was probably the best way to save the lives of the Japanese.
Second, The number of soldiers, the quantity and types of weapons and their sophistication makes Hamas an army in my book. Just about the only thing Hamas doesn't have are tanks. They are inflecting a lot of casualties on Israel. If Hamas wasn't a capable army this conflict wouldn't have happened.

The first thing is a discussion for another time (one I’d love to have).

As for the second one, I think that they were a army but they have been completely obliterated as far as I’m aware they are now a gorilla army and only have significant presence in Rafa.

 

[Peartree]

The first thing is a discussion for another time (one I’d love to have).

As for the second one, I think that they were a army but they have been completely obliterated as far as I’m aware they only have significant presence in Rafa and even there they operate in a manner that makes the most sense if they are a terrorist organization (eg child combatants).

Sadly, given that the hostages have not yet been returned and that they still insist that they are "in charge" and "governing" Rafa, they are, as yet, far from being obliterated. Videos pop up every week showing Hamas shooting civilians, which of course will be blamed on Israel. Worse yet, Hamas isn't the only terror organization operating in Gaza, there are, I understand, quite a few. Hamas is just the biggest one and it does not control the others.

 

[NTP2]

Sadly, given that the hostages have not yet been returned and that they still insist that they are "in charge" and "governing" Rafa, they are, as yet, far from being obliterated. Videos pop up every week showing Hamas shooting civilians, which of course will be blamed on Israel. Worse yet, Hamas isn't the only terror organization operating in Gaza, there are, I understand, quite a few. Hamas is just the biggest one and it does not control the others.

I meant more that they can’t actually combat Israel on a large scale, if Israel wants to go into Rafa (which they do) hamas can’t stop them. They are obviously still around and dangerous.

 

[jqavins]

The first thing is a discussion for another time (one I’d love to have).

As for the second one, I think that they were a army but they have been completely obliterated as far as I’m aware they only have significant presence in Rafa and even there they operate in a manner that makes the most sense if they are a terrorist organization (eg child combatants).

As Chuck wrote, "army" or "terrorist organization" is a false dichotomy. "Army that performs coordinated attacks and hold lines" or "guerilla army" is a proper dichotomy (mostly) but terrorist and guerilla are not the same thing. That's a very common mistake. Most but not all terrorists are guerillas, and many guerillas are not terrorists.

Historically, child soldiers have been used in both organized armies and guerilla armies. It's not a sign of either, but rather a sign of utterly depraved and immoral leadership.

 

[Antares JS]

Historically, child soldiers have been used in both organized armies and guerilla armies. It's not a sign of either, but rather a sign of utterly depraved and immoral leadership.

For example, Berlin, 1945...

It's hard to tell, but the guy on the left is the toothbrush mustache-having Austrian man.

 

[SolarYellow]

I remember reading stories about American men under 18 lying about their age to enlist in WWII and becoming heroes.

 

[Bravo52]

....ensure that both sides understand that peace is the only solution and recognize both people and cultures have a right to exist.

Joshua: Greetings, Professor Falken.
Stephen Falken: Hello, Joshua.
Joshua: A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?

 

[dr wogz]

if you haven't seen it, highly recommended.. (talking abut child solders & propaganda..)

 

[Art Upton]

I remember reading stories about American men under 18 lying about their age to enlist in WWII and becoming heroes.

Could you not enlist in Vietnam at 17 ? I vagally recall this

 

[NTP2]

For example, Berlin, 1945...

It's hard to tell, but the guy on the left is the toothbrush mustache-having Austrian man.

View attachment 645439

As Chuck wrote, "army" or "terrorist organization" is a false dichotomy. "Army that performs coordinated attacks and hold lines" or "guerilla army" is a proper dichotomy (mostly) but terrorist and guerilla are not the same thing. That's a very common mistake. Most but not all terrorists are guerillas, and many guerillas are not terrorists.

Historically, child soldiers have been used in both organized armies and guerilla armies. It's not a sign of either, but rather a sign of utterly depraved and immoral leadership.

Ok I see you point, I’ll edit the original.

 

[dr wogz]

Could you not enlist in Vietnam at 17 ? I vagally recall this

but go back a few years, to .. oh about 1916 or 1940..

https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-29934965

https://www.veterans.gc.ca/en/remembrance/classroom/fact-sheets/youth

 

[teepot]

I saw today that Hezbollah fired what they called heavy rockets into Israel along with Katyusha's and ATGM's. The video also said they are pulling back their front line troops and leaving observation posts. The heavy rockets reminded me of the Elephant rockets used in Syria. Huge diameter and packed with a lot of explosives. Certainly not as accurate as Hezbollah claimed.

 

[Dotini]

There is now sharp division within the Israeli war cabinet regarding the apparent failure to defeat Hamas, get the hostages back, or indeed have any coherent plan at all. This is all devolving into a gigantic cluster----.

 

[NTP2]

This is all devolving into a gigantic cluster----.

Wasn’t it always?

 

[terryg]

It's always been a no win situation.

 

[Tyeeking]

There is now sharp division within the Israeli war cabinet regarding the apparent failure to defeat Hamas, get the hostages back, or indeed have any coherent plan at all. This is all devolving into a gigantic cluster----.

Got a credible cite for that claim?

 

[Dotini]

Got a credible cite for that claim?

Yep:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...-governance-opposes-military-rule-2024-05-15/

Edit for video version.

 

[CalebJ]

Yep:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...-governance-opposes-military-rule-2024-05-15/

So a difference of perspective between leaders is translated into 'devolving into a giant cluster'?

 

[boatgeek]

Got a credible cite for that claim?

This is one of the articles in the same vein.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cglxlj4m3v0o

I would hazard a guess that the issue is that Netanyahu can't make a formal decision without burning bridges within his coalition. Since he has a very narrow majority in the Knesset, losing even a couple of people could collapse the government. And of course, staying PM is what's keeping him out of jail.

 

[Bravo52]

This is one of the articles in the same vein.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cglxlj4m3v0o

I would hazard a guess that the issue is that Netanyahu can't make a formal decision without burning bridges within his coalition. Since he has a very narrow majority in the Knesset, losing even a couple of people could collapse the government. And of course, staying PM is what's keeping him out of jail.

This is very true. There is no doubt Israel can eradicate Hamas. There is also no doubt there is a price to pay in doing that. One is "casualties of war" on the international stage. The second, and where I think this particular issue revolves, is around the homefront political environment. Netanyahu is weak and just holding the coalition together. The fight now is what the next Israeli government looks like. I think these cabinet members are all considering a run for the next PM and jockeying to best position themselves for that election.

So the issue is not the fight in Gaza, it's for the ballot box in the next election. Remember, "war is politics by an other means" and this certainly fits that bill.

 

[jqavins]

So a difference of perspective between leaders is translated into 'devolving into a giant cluster'?

No, it's one more piece of how an appropriate retaliation becomes a protracted operation becomes a brutal war becomes a giant flustered duck.

There is no doubt Israel can eradicate Hamas...

I beg to differ. I have no doubt that they can't. If you kill every Hamas fighter that you can find, Hamas will be back in just a few years. If you burn all of Gaza with a nuclear barrage, Hams will be back. (No, I'm not saying Israel is going to use nukes, just that even if they did it wouldn't be enough to eradicate Hamas.) Hamas will grow back like cockroaches, if perhaps with a name.

 

[NTP2]

I beg to differ. I have no doubt that they can't. If you kill every Hamas fighter that you can find, Hamas will be back in just a few years. If you burn all of Gaza with a nuclear barrage, Hams will be back. (No, I'm not saying Israel is going to use nukes, just that even if they did it wouldn't be enough to eradicate Hamas.) Hamas will grow back like cockroaches, if perhaps with a name.

Like what happened to us in Afghanistan (that’s what I meant when I said they should learn from our mistakes)

 

[CalebJ]

No, it's one more piece of how an appropriate retaliation becomes a protracted operation becomes a brutal war becomes a giant flustered duck.


I beg to differ. I have no doubt that they can't. If you kill every Hamas fighter that you can find, Hamas will be back in just a few years. If you burn all of Gaza with a nuclear barrage, Hams will be back. (No, I'm not saying Israel is going to use nukes, just that even if they did it wouldn't be enough to eradicate Hamas.) Hamas will grow back like cockroaches, if perhaps with a name.

For what it's worth, I agree with you on that. Just not the endless 'sky is falling ' predictions from the other poster.

 

[terryg]

https://apnews.com/article/iran-helicopter-raisi-b483ba75e4339cfb0fe00c7349d023b8

 

[NTP2]

https://apnews.com/article/iran-helicopter-raisi-b483ba75e4339cfb0fe00c7349d023b8

Assassin?

 

[rharshberger]

Assassin?

...helicopter...pretty much same thing, they aren't known for reliability, some are better than others. Accident is what we hope is the result of the investigation, anything else will lead to finger pointing and a relations between countries getting even worse.

 

[jqavins]

I wouldn't put it past the current Israeli government, and in a way I couldn't blame them, but it would be a really bad idea. I hope either it was an accident or a sufficiently good fake.

 

[NTP2]

I wouldn't put it past the current Israeli government, and in a way I couldn't blame them, but it would be a really bad idea. I hope either it was an accident or a sufficiently good fake.

Pretty much what I was thinking…

Ps just a little bit too convenient…