The US Dollar - Nothing to Worry About.

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Dotini

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As a rule, I sleep very soundly with no concerns at all over my investments, which are diversified. I'm invested in rental income property, oil and gas royalties, CD's and the like. I have no debt of any kind. But could my strategy be unsound? I doubt it.


Mad Magazine mascot Alfred E. Neuman. Photo courtesy Mad Magazine

Below, a recent article from Marketwatch:


Is ‘King Dollar’ in danger of losing its crown?

Probably not yet, but the rapid unwind of last year’s torrid rally in the U.S. dollar, combined with efforts by Beijing and others to ease their dependence on the buck, have helped to reinvigorate speculation that the greenback’s dominance over international trade and finance may be moving toward its twilight.

Talk about “de-dollarization“ has intensified and Wall Street analysts have joined in, publishing research reports forecasting more competition for the buck in trade and global reserves alongside assessments about where the dollar is heading in the coming months, and how the adoption of so-called central bank digital currencies might shake things up.
To be sure, many currency strategists and economists have pushed back against the notion that the dollar is anywhere close to shedding its reserve status, citing its dominance in global trade and as a widely used reserve asset by central banks.
The dollar’s sharp appreciation last year caught many currency strategists off guard, as has its reversal over the last six months.
After hitting its strongest level in more than two decades in late September, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, -0.38%, a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, has fallen more than 10%, according to FactSet. The dollar hit its lowest level against the euro EURUSD, 0.39% in more than a year on Thursday, with the shared currency trading at roughly $1.10.

As a result, the dollar has been the worst-performing G-10 currency over the past month, according to a team of analysts at Rabobank.

Alan Ruskin, a macro strategist at Deutsche Bank who has covered currencies for years, noted that de-dollarization talk is coming back in vogue less than a year after the 50th anniversary of the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system. Under Bretton Woods, a gold-backed U.S. dollar assumed a central role in a the global postwar economy.

The Bretton Woods system collapsed when President Richard Nixon announced the abandonment of the gold standard in August 1971. But the dollar’s status as the indispensable global reserve currency endured.

Years later, more than a decade of quantitative easing and rock-bottom interest rates have helped undermine this hard-won credibility, Ruskin said, noting the rise of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin as one sign of a “revolt“ against the greenback. Central banks doubled down on these policies following the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, spurring inflation and with it more skepticism abroad.

“The money printing, with its overt seigniorage extraction, and inflation repercussions, has only further encouraged those in the developing world that want to establish a multipolar currency system more in keeping with their growing share of global GDP,“ Ruskin said in a research note emailed to MarketWatch.

Seigniorage refers to stealth profits that governments reap from issuing currencies.

Now, a fresh challenge to the dollar’s stability may loom on the horizon as Congress prepares for another ugly showdown over the debt ceiling, analysts said, while world leaders including France’s Emmanuel Macron have said that international dependence on the dollar should be reduced.
etc...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...greenback-loses-its-world-dominance-d48ad5e6.
 
The death of the dollar is kinda like the hyperbole on the effects of climate change. Every flood, drought, snowstorm, heat wave, crop failure, crop bounty, hurricane, windless days etc is framed around 'catastrophicclimatechange' (one word now) even though the data plotted on a control chart shows no trend. Same with the US dollar, long maturity treasury bills are in high demand as indicated by price strength. Last weeks auction on 30y treasuries was solid. Alot of news and angst in the media around the dollar but the market indicates otherwise. I will go with the market.
 
from an article I was reading:
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is growing faster than ever before. With some quick math, one finds that the Fed is printing some $60 million every minute.Mar 28, 2020
“The United States printed more money in June than in the first two centuries after its founding,” Morehead wrote. “Last month the U.S. budget deficit — $864 billion — was larger than the total debt incurred from 1776 through the end of 1979.”
“The U.S. is about to experience one of the greatest inflationary periods in world history,” Schiff said on Twitter. “Any credibility the Fed has left will be lost. Federal Reserve Notes soon won't be worth a Continental.” (Continental paper money in the U.S. was at one time exchanged for treasury bonds at 1% of its face value.)
 
Data available from the Board of Governors public website tells a different story. Does the BEP print a lot of currency? Absolutely. What matters is why they print it. The Fed orders currency from the BEP to meet demand for commerce, not to earn seigniorage. The BEP simply cannot print enough physical currency to get the US out of debt. Below, you can see that the Print Order, or what the Fed is paying the BEP to print, is not increasing (below). If you’re referring to ‘printing money’ euphemistically as creating value on the balance sheet out of thin air, yes the government does that through other financial instruments not involving US currency.


865656F7-1433-491F-A1A5-CE2882FDF6E4.jpeg

An indicator of the strength of the US dollar is demand. As shown below, every year the volume of currency in circulation increases. It is estimated that at least 60% of US currency in circulation is held overseas.

11614931-934D-4C40-A2EA-DB35F01F2831.jpeg
 
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is growing faster than ever before. With some quick math, one finds that the Fed is printing some $60 million every minute.Mar 28, 2020
Bear in mind that during the first year of the pandemic there was a spike in demand for US currency around the globe. In times of uncertainty people stock up on cash. Much of that ‘rainy day’ stash of cash is still out there waiting to be deposited or spent.
 
An indicator of the strength of the US dollar is demand. As shown below, every year the volume of currency in circulation increases. It is estimated that at least 60% of US currency in circulation is held overseas.

View attachment 575856
Also its seems like the "death of cash" is greatly exaggerated. At least for the near term.
 
This is also one of those things that, while potentially troublesome, even disastrous, there is nothing I can do to control it. There is, in fact, very little that I can do to prepare for such a thing. In that case, worrying is pointless.

"Worry is like a rocking chair. It gives you something to do, but it doesn't get you anywhere." - old American adage

So, no. I'm not wasting any time worrying about it. Monitoring... maybe.
 
This is also one of those things that, while potentially troublesome, even disastrous, there is nothing I can do to control it. There is, in fact, very little that I can do to prepare for such a thing. In that case, worrying is pointless.
Everyone should watch this documentary on how money really works:
 
I’m not too worried about the dollar. I am kind of worried that debt ceiling brinksmanship might destroy the full faith and credit of the US government, tank US treasury securities, cripple the global economy, etc. And that might have an affect on the dollar. But other than that, I think we’re good.
 
I’m not too worried about the dollar. I am kind of worried that debt ceiling brinksmanship might destroy the full faith and credit of the US government, tank US treasury securities, cripple the global economy, etc. And that might have an affect on the dollar. But other than that, I think we’re good.
We really, really, REALLY, need to stop spending 30 percent more than we take in. Five decades of deficit spending has been terribly addicting, but if it doesn't stop, THAT's going to (already has) have an effect on the dollar.
 
We really, really, REALLY, need to stop spending 30 percent more than we take in. Five decades of deficit spending has been terribly addicting, but if it doesn't stop, THAT's going to (already has) have an effect on the dollar.

It seems to make sense that long-term deficit spending should eventually catch up with us, but on the other hand, we’ve been hearing that for at least 40 years of deficit spending, and inflation has remained very low and well controlled for that entire time.

Recent inflation was due to the pandemic, supply chain problems, changes in consumer demand from services to goods, big injections of money into the economy to prevent a pandemic recession. It’s not a sign of the long-term deficit spending and debt catching up.

It seems like economic crises during my lifetime have been due to other kinds of shocks or structural problems, not debt. I definitely think debt-cieling brinksmanship is a far more dangerous risk to the economy than the debt all the drama is supposedly about.
 
Every flood, drought, snowstorm, heat wave, crop failure, crop bounty, hurricane, windless days etc is framed around 'catastrophicclimatechange' (one word now) even though the data plotted on a control chart shows no trend.

That's objectively not true. There are plenty of valid data sources showing the opposite. One specific example is the frequency and severity of hurricanes has increased significantly. (NOAA reference, C2ES, NASA, the list goes on)
 
That's objectively not true. There are plenty of valid data sources showing the opposite. One specific example is the frequency and severity of hurricanes has increased significantly. (NOAA reference, C2ES, NASA, the list goes on)
Not to derail this thread but see data and discussion in this thread. Feel free to post in that thread.
https://www.rocketryforum.com/threads/hurricane-losses-since-1900.175063/#post-2375750
And another similar thread.
https://www.rocketryforum.com/threads/us-extreme-weather-year-in-review.176402/#post-2357555
 
Last edited:
"Moody’s Investors Service late Friday cut its outlook on the U.S. sovereign credit rating to negative from stable, citing higher interest rates and doubts about the government’s ability implement effective fiscal policies.

A negative outlook means that a rating may be cut in the future, but doesn’t mean that it will be. Moody’s continues to rate U.S. sovereign debt Aaa — the only one of the three major credit-rating companies to maintain a triple-A rating on the world’s largest economy.

“The sharp rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields this year has increased pre-existing pressure on U.S. debt affordability. In the absence of policy action, Moody’s expects the U.S.’s debt affordability to decline further, steadily and significantly, to very weak levels compared to other highly-rated sovereigns, which may offset the sovereign’s credit strengths explained below,” the company said, in a statement.

In response to the announcement, a Treasury Department official said the agency disagrees with the warning sounded by Moody’s."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/m...redit-rating-to-negative-from-stable-4ede1b9b
 
2 observations (& requests) as a foreigner visiting the US (frequently!):

You guys to love your dollars! While the rest of the world is moving to a cashless system (bank cards, credit cards, e-transfers, etc..) the US still holds onto their paper dollars!

Despite the fact you have a $2 bill, I have yet to see one! Why are they sooo rare? So, we all end up walking around with about $20 in $1 bills!

Coins! most places have made their lower "paper" denomination into coins. Yes, you have a 50 cent piece, and you do have $1 coins, but again, those are very rare.. (An old member here used to push that: $1 coins.. had it in his sig if I recall..)

And a lot of countries are opting for "polymer" dollars, no longer a "paper". they tend to be more resilient to ripping & other forms of 'daily abuse'..

And please adopt an 'e-mail' type cash transfer system between banks & countries! :D (paypal fees can be expensive for international transfers!!)



Up here, I rarely carry cash anymore. Everything is thru a credit card (no interest if paid within teh month), a debit/bank card, and we send monies to each other via an 'e-transfer', essentially an e-mailed "check".. We also have $1 & $2 coins. (And we no longer use pennies. If electronically, it there. But in cash its either rounded up or down to the nearest nickel..)
 
2 observations (& requests) as a foreigner visiting the US (frequently!):

You guys to love your dollars! While the rest of the world is moving to a cashless system (bank cards, credit cards, e-transfers, etc..) the US still holds onto their paper dollars!

Despite the fact you have a $2 bill, I have yet to see one! Why are they sooo rare? So, we all end up walking around with about $20 in $1 bills!

Coins! most places have made their lower "paper" denomination into coins. Yes, you have a 50 cent piece, and you do have $1 coins, but again, those are very rare.. (An old member here used to push that: $1 coins.. had it in his sig if I recall..)

And a lot of countries are opting for "polymer" dollars, no longer a "paper". they tend to be more resilient to ripping & other forms of 'daily abuse'..

And please adopt an 'e-mail' type cash transfer system between banks & countries! :D (paypal fees can be expensive for international transfers!!)



Up here, I rarely carry cash anymore. Everything is thru a credit card (no interest if paid within teh month), a debit/bank card, and we send monies to each other via an 'e-transfer', essentially an e-mailed "check".. We also have $1 & $2 coins. (And we no longer use pennies. If electronically, it there. But in cash its either rounded up or down to the nearest nickel..)

We tend to be more paranoid about monitoring and tracking of our activities. Cash is an easy way to pretend we're under the radar.

The strategy currently being used by totalitarian governments around the world, from China to Iran, was demonstrated in 2013-2014 by the Giver of Light then occupying the White House. Read up on "Operation Choke Point." Very 1984.
 
The "dollar" is still the world's currency, and despite the dire warnings, will probably be so for the next 50 years. The USA is still the world's largest economy, and our default would also mean disaster for the rest of the world. We are the economy that provides for those nations that do not. While China and Russia can take care of themselves, almost everyone else depends upon our aid.

Try to remember that while we have borrowed 100% of GDP, Japan is double that, and not one is talking about Japan defaulting on their loans. Most of the screaming you hear from talking heads on the news is just typical fear-mongering because Americans have to be afraid of *something*, that's been our constant diet since the 1950's.

I'm sorry... what was the original question? If you're diversified, if you've got your money spread around, if you're invested in multiple areas. You're fine. Think Warren Buffet, he's got his money everywhere, so if something goes wrong somewhere, he's still OK. Now, if you're Mark Zuckerberg, and your entire wealth is based in just Facebook stock, well, then you're in trouble if Facebook suddenly goes bust. But, like I said, if your money is spread out, no problem.
 
If you're diversified, if you've got your money spread around, if you're invested in multiple areas. You're fine.
So what if you have $100 in savings. Have no investments. and no real assets? Live on social security income with lots of medical bills?
 
I hope you have applied or are receiving MedicAid?
We make too much on Medicare get the Medicaid benefits they conveniently make that the reality show that people cannot get both of them at the same time, some people can qualify, but very few
 
So what if you have $100 in savings. Have no investments. and no real assets? Live on social security income with lots of medical bills?
So, I have to ask, did you ever have a job? When you worked, where did the money go? I always made sure my lifestyle never exceeded my income, so, I always had extra cash to invest/save/use on hobbies. I'm technically retired, but I'm working right now. I also have 1/3 of a side business that we're in the process of selling, which may net me a few extra bucks. Right now, in this economy, you should be able to make some money pretty easily if you have any marketable skills.
 
So, I have to ask, did you ever have a job? When you worked, where did the money go? I always made sure my lifestyle never exceeded my income, so, I always had extra cash to invest/save/use on hobbies. I'm technically retired, but I'm working right now. I also have 1/3 of a side business that we're in the process of selling, which may net me a few extra bucks. Right now, in this economy, you should be able to make some money pretty easily if you have any marketable skills.
Yes I worked for 35 years, but for the last 30 of those years I made $16 an hour all the way up to my very last year working in 2013, so what money I made went for the normal expensive like a mortgage, food ,clothing, gasoline, raising two kids. Then when I lost my health in 2013 and had to quit work, i went five months with zero income as the first disability check took five months to get here, which wiped out all the savings and 401 that we had. I definitely cannot work anymore as I spend about 16 hours a day in bed due to extreme fatigue and physical issues due to losing about 70% of my muscles and 95% of my nerves in my arms and legs, along with being down to only one lung and only being able to produce 35% of my normal inhale and exhale pressure because of the nerve and muscle damage in my chest. I'm in pretty bad shape.
 
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