The real reason for Black Friday Blu-Ray numbers...

[2muchstuff]

If you're sick to death of the Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD debate, stop and find another thread. Otherwise, you've been warned.

KermieD and I have been exchanging views on the above two standards in another thread. I cited Black Friday numbers as evidence that Blu-Ray was vastly outselling HD-DVD. KermieD dismissed those numbers as an aberration and said I just didn't get it. He said momentum was swinging in favor of HD-DVD. I contend that since all PS3's are also Blu-Ray players, that will give Blu-Ray the edge. Well, here' a possible explanation for the big uptick in Blu-Ray disc sales: (cite at bottom of post)

"But while Wii remains the leader of the next-gen gaming console sales, Sony has also a wonderful November."

"Finally, after a series of bad months, the sales of PS3 are kicking off. Since Sony has slashed the price and unveiled new versions, PS3 outsold Nintendo Wii in Japan in November, while in US Sony’s gaming console reached 466,000 units sold."

"This is a huge step forward compared to October’s sales when Sony sold only 121,000 PS3s and a confirmation of the announcement that since the price reduction the weekly sales have doubled and even tripled."

"Following these good results, Kazuo Hirai, Sony Computer Entertainment's CEO, said for the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun that the worldwide sales of PS3 are expected to reach 11 million by the end of this fiscal year."

"As in December sales are generally twice November's, maybe Sony will sell somewhere around 800,000 units, especially because PS3 is also promoted as a BluRay player."


So, in November, Sony sold nearly a half-million PS3's. Obviously, some of the new owners are going to buy movies as well as games. If Sony really does manage to sell 800,000 units in Dec., in one month they will nearly outsell the entire HD-DVD installed base. That gives the Blu-Ray player a HUGE lead over HD-DVD in the US. Plus, the worldwide installed base will be nearly 9:1 over HD-DVD.

Say all you want about HD-DVD owners buying more movies, but when the installed base has that big of a lead, it will be hard for the competing format to catch up. From my point of view, it sure seems like the momentum is behind Blu-Ray. There is a big difference in 'exclusive' deals with Studios and what kinds of players are in the hands of consumers. KermieD may claim momentum is swinging to HD-DVD because of exclusive studio deals, but you can be sure that once those deals expire, the studios aren't going to ignore MILLIONS of installed Blu-Ray players.

CITE:
https://www.efluxmedia.com/news_Wii_Is_Still_The_Champ_But_PS3_Sales_Increase_11868.html


tms

 

[by basher]

Betamax

 

[2muchstuff]

Betamax

You're right - Blu-Ray, like Betamax, is the better format. Only this time around it looks like the better format will win.


tms

ps: for all of you who think Beta died out, it was the gold standard for pro SD video. Nearly everything broadcast in this country in the last 25 years was on some version of the Beta format during it's life cycle.

 

[Silverleaf]

God bless the Victrola...:cry:

 

[WiK]

The only way this is going to end is if Apple comes out with some sort of "iHD-Disc", makes it in lots of pretty colours and gets Bono to endorse it.

I'm still not convinced PS3's will have a huge influence on all of this, I never played DVD's on my PS2.

Phil

 

[Fore Check]

I cited Black Friday numbers as evidence that Blu-Ray was vastly outselling HD-DVD. KermieD dismissed those numbers as an aberration and said I just didn't get it.

Without getting into the meat of the discussion of BluRay vs. HD-DVD (yet)

I will comment on "Black Friday" numbers.

My dad works for one of the "Big Three" major credit card companies, in a position that I'll loosely describe as the head of a group of statisticians and programmers that do "data mining" on credit card transactions to do things like market predictions, market trends, and all kinds of stuff that (when he tells me about it) I find absolutely mind boggling. The group has a history of a high-degree of accuracy, so much so that their information output "product" is very valuable and often times very confidential. Let's just leave the description at that.

Anyway - regarding "Black Friday" and the Christmas shopping season in general: He told me that the vast majority of consumer electronics sold in the US are purchased during the Christmas season (defined as "Black Friday" through a date near Christmas, truthfully I think its soon *after* Christmas) with tremendous spikes in sales on Black Friday and the following weekend, as well as the day after Christmas. The data from this period historically is a *very* accurate market predictor/indicator for the *entire year* regarding sales of those products, perhaps because of how heavily weighted the period is in terms of total annual sales (I think I remember that part right.) I'll ask again how weighted that total sales value is - but it's huge (like 70% or greater. Really - take a guess at what percentage of annual sales you would intuitively think is reasonable for that short period of time and then double it to get in the ballpark of the true answer.

After reading this thread this morning, I sent him an email asking the question about the BluRay vs. HD-DVD case, as well as some clarification questions regarding the accuracy/usefulness of the data. I'll post here what he says, assuming that he can/will tell me at all.

BTW: Just regarding the PS3, it's my understanding that not *all* PS3's are BluRay players. The cheapest (i.e. $399) versions are not BluRay players, that option being left off to afford the cheaper version I think.

 

[msurocketgurl]

BTW: Just regarding the PS3, it's my understanding that not *all* PS3's are BluRay players. The cheapest (i.e. $399) versions are not BluRay players, that option being left off to afford the cheaper version I think.

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that both versions are BluRay. The more expensive one just has 40GB more, 2 more USBs, and has memory card slots...

https://www.us.playstation.com/ps3/about/specs

 

[kandsrockets]

BTW: Just regarding the PS3, it's my understanding that not *all* PS3's are BluRay players. The cheapest (i.e. $399) versions are not BluRay players, that option being left off to afford the cheaper version I think.

All PS3s are BluRay players. The only major change between the units in the packages is the hard drive size.

 

[Fore Check]

All PS3s are BluRay players. The only major change between the units in the packages is the hard drive size.

Ok, I was wrong there. I'm not in the market for one, but when I was eyeballing an XBox 360 recently and asked about the comparably priced PS3, the nerd at GameStop I swear said something that made me type what I did. Oh, well.

A thought ocurred to me on the drive to work this morning - consider the advertising focus regarding BluRay vs. HD-DVD. We constantly get bombarded with ads (especially this time of year) for various DVDs about to be or just recently released. How many ads for DVDs stick in your mind that specifically mention BluRay format? How about HD-DVD's? Not taking sides (because I don't care that much because I am not yet really in the market, but will be sooner or later,) it seems that most ads specifically mention the BluRay format.

I would think that advertisers wouldn't waste their dollars barking up a dying tree. Further, these ads might focus purchasing of players to one format or the other because of the perceptions (like the one I have) that the ads develop.

 

[CAS2047]

I don't care how good Blu-Ray is, I won't be converting my vast DVD collection over to a Blu-Ray collection. I'll continue to buy and watch DVD's.

 

[WiK]

How many ads for DVDs stick in your mind that specifically mention BluRay format? How about HD-DVD's? Not taking sides (because I don't care that much because I am not yet really in the market, but will be sooner or later,) it seems that most ads specifically mention the BluRay format.

I would think that advertisers wouldn't waste their dollars barking up a dying tree.

I wonder how many of those ads are for movies with some affiliation to Sony Pictures?

Phil

 

[Fore Check]

I wonder how many of those ads are for movies with some affiliation to Sony Pictures?

Phil

Fair enough question. But think about it - if the market gets flooded with BluRay compatible discs (by anyone,) an easy perception to make by John Q. Consumer who is in the market for a high-def DVD player is "Hey, I'd better purchase a BluRay player so I'm not left holding an expensive and relatively useless piece of equipment if all the high-def discs are going to be made in BluRay format." I'd be willing to bet that most consumers would base their purchase based on the availability of currently compatible discs in the next department over from the electronics section, rather than doing serious research.

 

[mwiggins367]

Blue-Ray can hold more data (about twice as much), but is more expensive to make.

The studios are backed into their corners on whom they are supporting.

Blue-Ray

20th Century Fox
Buena Vista Home Entertainment
Electronic Arts
MGM Studios
Paramount Pictures
Sony Pictures Entertainment
The Walt Disney Company
Vivendi Universal Games
Warner Bros.

HDDVD
Buena Vista Home Entertainment
New Line Cinema
Paramount Pictures
The Walt Disney Company
Universal Studios
Warner Bros.

Blockbuster Video announced that they will only sell Blue-Ray.

I think in the end, there will be players that support both versions.

 

[powderburner]

The plain old TV screen looks just fine to me. I don't need a finer picture than my old eyeballs can see. (Same situation as the guy in the store trying to sell me a new stereo, with better sound quality than I can even distinguish with my hearing damage.....all I need is LOUD.)

And since the biggest TV screen in the house is only 25 inches, having a whole bunch of extra definition is largely wasted anyway.

 

[WiK]

True. But is the market (being) flooded with BluRay titles, or is it just an advertising campaign to make it look like it is?

Come to think of it, is there a list anywhere that shows all the titles available on each format?

Phil

 

[SpartaChris]

I think I'm gonna wait a while before I go with one or the other. I don't want to get hosed with buying a new piece of equipment that isn't going to be supported.

 

[Fore Check]

True. But is the market (being) flooded with BluRay titles, or is it just an advertising campaign to make it look like it is?

Exactly my point. It's about perception, no matter where that perception comes from.

 

[by basher]

The plain old TV screen looks just fine to me....extra definition is largely wasted anyway.

Ditto.

If I can see/hear the news/weather and watch NFL/NHL/MLB till I fall asleep on Sat/Sun afternoons, :yawn: ...uh, eh what was the question?

 

[11bravo]

All PS3s are BluRay players. The only major change between the units in the packages is the hard drive size.

Not entirely.
I am about to bestow upon y'all the extent of my vast knowledge of PS3s.
The 40GB version is 100% backward compatible (IIRC it'll even play PS games) and the 80GB version is not.
So, in review...
The less expensive one plays more games.

 

[Nerull]

Actually, the 40 gig doesn't do PS2 games at all. It will apparently emulate some PS1 games.

The now-discontinued 20 gig had hardware support, as does the 60 gig. The 80 doesn't have hardware CPU support, but does have the graphics system and can emulate the CPU in software, though its not as good as having the actual hardware.

Note that this only applies to North American PS3s - others may be different.

EDIT: Upon further reading the 60 gig has been discontinued as well, though it may still be in stores - once they sell there aren't any more.

So your choices are a 40 gig that doesn't play older games, or a 80 gig that plays some, but not as many as they did at launch.

 

[Hospital_Rocket]

Betamax

Oh come on, U-Matic beats Beta by a long shot.

 

[11bravo]

Duh.
60GB.
You're right.
Got my 4's and 6's messed up.

Actually, the 40 gig doesn't do PS2 games at all. It will apparently emulate some PS1 games.

The now-discontinued 20 gig had hardware support, as does the 60 gig. The 80 doesn't have hardware CPU support, but does have the graphics system and can emulate the CPU in software, though its not as good as having the actual hardware.

Note that this only applies to North American PS3s - others may be different.

EDIT: Upon further reading the 60 gig has been discontinued as well, though it may still be in stores - once they sell there aren't any more.

So your choices are a 40 gig that doesn't play older games, or a 80 gig that plays some, but not as many as they did at launch.

 

[2muchstuff]

...Anyway - regarding "Black Friday" and the Christmas shopping season in general: ... The data from this period historically is a *very* accurate market predictor/indicator for the *entire year* regarding sales of those products, perhaps because of how heavily weighted the period is in terms of total annual sales ...

Fore Check,
Thanks for the insight into the numbers. I bet the data they come up with is in high demand and worth lots of money to manufacturers, retailers, and economists in general. Sounds like this Christmas overall sales numbers will be down or at the best flat.

Let us know if you learn anything else from him about the whole Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD debacle.

Thanks again,


tms

 

[Fore Check]

Let us know if you learn anything else from him about the whole Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD debacle.

Well, I talked to Dad at length last night. Long story short, he couldn't tell me much. His group hasn't done anything at the product level in this segment for a while, and no one has ponied up to make them do it; So, they keep pressing on with other intersting projects that he asked me not to talk about.

 

[n3tjm]

All PS3's are blue-ray players. They need to be, since PS3 games are on blu-ray disks. If you find a PS2 game does not work on your Ps3, try again after the next update. They add more games to the compatibility list every update. There were some PS2 games that did not work on my 60gb PS3 when I first got it, and they work fine now.

 

[by basher]

Oh come on, U-Matic beats Beta by a long shot.

And, of course, DiscoVision