Government mandates, forcing and coercion.

[Antares JS]

It’s clearly not common.

No, but it's interesting that it was roughly eighty years each between the late 1850's, 1939, and 2023. One could argue that California was possibly due.

If California gets two or three more hurricanes in the next few years, you might have a point. Otherwise, it doesn't look like this is a good example of climate change-wrought disaster.

 

[Tyeeking]

Other hurricanes made landfall in California in 1854,1859, and 1939.

And to be clear, a hurricane did not hit California this year. It was a tropical storm by the time it made it to California. The dramatic hype is so laughable that it has become counter productive.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Got it. Follow the science only when it fits your feelings and preferred narrative.

You have a long record of cherry picking and misrepresenting research, and I don’t have the bandwidth right now to deal with researching something you found on some substack.

You also have a long record of misrepresenting my posts, which is what you are doing right now. I believe in following the science and not making decisions, especially forward-looking planning based on feelings. Unfortunately, it seems to be that’s not the way things mostly work in real life, and people need to wait until they are neck-deep in trouble before they will act.

For decades, scientists have said we need to do everything we can to avoid going over 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial global temperatures. This year, we have temporarily (we should hope) popped up over that threshold ahead of predictions. So this year we are getting a peek at what is our likely future. Not great. Very, very hot in some places. Huge fires in some places. Smoke. Floods.

Maybe the silver lining is that a few people will wake up to the fact that we are already neck-deep in trouble and start doing the things we should have done earlier.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

And to be clear, a hurricane did not hit California this year. It was a tropical storm by the time it made it to California. The dramatic hype is so laughable that it has become counter productive.

It made landfall as a hurricane in Baja California, which is unusual, but you are correct it was a tropical storm by the time the eye crossed the border. Still not normal. And there was significant flooding in places that don’t normally get it.

 

[TheTank]

I love it when the government tries to mandate anything and laugh at the sheep that blindly follow the clowns from either party. They are not our "rulers." They are our employees... they do what WE tell them to do. Far too many people forget that these days - the worst of which are the politicians that THINK they have the power.

 

[AllDigital]

Yeah, change sucks. I'm going to keep riding my horse and carriage on LA freeways until ya'll stop honking and screaming at me about "cars only". Also, we should bring back the LA smog from the 1980's when I could save money on cigarettes by just going for walk. Going a whole year without a smog alert really sucks. And the additional four billion people that joined us on our planet in the last fifty years? Screw the "mandated" building codes. Let them all be free and defecate outdoors and cook over campfires like the olden days, while we enjoy indoor plumbing. While we are at it we should get rid of all the stupid trees. Such a hassle in the fall to rake all those leaves. Just leave me one tree to tie up my horse.

 

[jderimig]

For decades, scientists have said we need to do everything we can to avoid going over 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial global temperatures. This year, we have temporarily (we should hope) popped up over that threshold ahead of predictions. So this year we are getting a peek at what is our likely future. Not great. Very, very hot in some places. Huge fires in some places. Smoke. Floods.

 

[jderimig]

and my favorite (from those wacky MAGA's at NOAA)

 

[user 30299]

The IPCC has determined that most all the of those subjective effects of recent weather cannot be attributed to climate change. I try and follow the science and that wacky MAGA IPCC. This is the best climate/weather I have personally experienced.

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-ipcc-actually-says-about
The IPCC has concluded that a signal of climate change has not yet emerged beyond natural variability for the following phenomena:

• River floods
• Heavy precipitation and pluvial floods
• Landslides
• Drought (all types)
• Severe wind storms
• Tropical cyclones
• Sand and dust storms
• Heavy snowfall and ice storms
• Hail
• Snow avalanche
• Coastal flooding
• Marine heat waves

Furthermore, the emergence of a climate change signal is not expected under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario by 2100 for any of these phenomena, except heavy precipitation and pluvial floods and that with only medium confidence. Since we know that RCP8.5 is extreme and implausible, that means that there would even less confidence in emergence under a more plausible upper bound, like RCP4.5

IPCC stands for Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change - and is overseen by the United Nations.

This is taken from the first paragraph of the current IPCC report:

Summary for Policymakers
A. Current Status and Trends Observed Warming and its Causes
A.1 Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global
surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850-1900 in 2011-2020. Global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase,
with unequal historical and ongoing contributions arising from unsustainable energy use, land use and land-use change, lifestyles
and patterns of consumption and production across regions, between and within countries, and among individuals (high confidence).
{2.1, Figure 2.1, Figure 2.2}

Here is the link to the report: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/

You will have a choice of a Summary, Long Version, or the Full Volume.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Again, getting back to my point about how most people it seems make decisions, I wonder how people who have experienced some of these things think about them.

If you live in Phoenix, what do you think about the temperatures this summer? I mean, it’s always hot in Phoenix every summer. So was this summer unusual? Is it within normal variability? If it wasn’t normal, do you think it’s going back to normal?

Same question to anyone else under the “heat dome” from the Southwest to the Southeast. It’s always hot in summer. Was this summer hotter than usual? Does it seem like it’s within the normal range? If it’s not normal, do you think it’s probably going back to normal? Or is it a “new normal”? Do you like it?

If you have been affected by smoke from Canadian fires, does it seem normal? Canada has fires every year. Is the amount of smoke you experienced similar to what you would expect, or is it different? Do you think it’s anything to be concerned about going forward?

Florida is no stranger to hurricanes, and hurricanes come with storm surge. Does the 12-foot storm surge with the recent hurricane seem like it’s within normal variability? Any concerns about that?

Vermont, are those floods normal?

SoCal, was the tropical storm normal?

To me, these all seem a bit out of the norm, but I don’t live there.

How about everyone else? Has your weather been normal this year? How about the last few years? Any noticeable changes?

 

[jderimig]

Where I live and in Wisconsin where my son lives the summer has been GORGEOUS! Beautiful spring and summer out of a relatively mild winter (only had to use my snowblower once or twice). Air conditioning electric usage a little lower than the last few years, lawn is beautifully green and only had to irrigate about 4-5 weeks July thru August. Outdoor temps were delightful. My landscaping plants and gardens are lit this year, must be all the extra plant food in the air. If this was due to catastrophic climate change I would like a little more of it please.

 

[cerving]

I'm still rooting for the Big One, so that California slides off into the Pacific.

New Orleans will most likely sink into the ocean first.

 

[cerving]

And to be clear, a hurricane did not hit California this year. It was a tropical storm by the time it made it to California. The dramatic hype is so laughable that it has become counter productive.

The "storm" was fairly decent, but it wasn't any more rain than we see a few times a year during the Winter rainy season. Except it wasn't cold... which made it quite bearable. And, you should see what people's lawns look like now... Spring redux.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Where I live and in Wisconsin where my son lives the summer has been GORGEOUS! Beautiful spring and summer out of a relatively mild winter (only had to use my snowblower once or twice). Air conditioning electric usage a little lower than the last few years, lawn is beautifully green and only had to irrigate about 4-5 weeks July thru August. Outdoor temps were delightful. My landscaping plants and gardens are lit this year, must be all the extra plant food in the air. If this was due to catastrophic climate change I would like a little more of it please.

You must not live near Milwaukee. In June they had the worst air quality in the world due to smoke from fires. AQI in the red — unhealthy for all groups.

 

[jderimig]

You must not live near Milwaukee. In June they had the worst air quality in the world due to smoke from fires. AQI in the red — unhealthy for all groups.

A couple days it was bad here too. AQI indoors was just fine. Absolutely beautiful sunrises and sunsets though. Really nice, enjoyed those immensely. No one died. Then all good and beautiful after couple of days.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I'm still rooting for the Big One, so that California slides off into the Pacific.

Pretty sure Florida will be under water before California is.

 

[bjphoenix]

I find the statistics interesting but summer here in central Texas has been very hot. 5 days ago we were 110 degrees, we have hit 110 degrees very few days since temperature statistics started being recorded in 1800s, and this year we hit 110 three times. I don't know if this is global warming or just how circumstances work out, the "perfect storm" of things. I know nothing about meteorology but I've noticed that we have a high pressure area move in and stagnate and temperatures go up. So maybe it's random high pressure areas.

I read arguments on both sides of the EV debate, it is hard to know what is true. It does appear to be true that EVs are more expensive and will remain more expensive for a long time, despite daily operating costs being lower, and this will negatively affect a large portion of the population that cannot afford anything but very cheap transportation. It also seems that fire issues will be a problem, there might be a time when you cannot park an EV in any commercial building. If the government stays on the green future train they probably won't ban EVs from government parking. I wonder how long before "Freemantle Highway" happens in the underground parking of a large government building.

I'm all for improving the environment and saving the future. I'm not sure we're going about it right.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

A couple days it was bad here too. AQI indoors was just fine. Absolutely beautiful sunrises and sunsets though. Really nice, enjoyed those immensely. No one died. Then all good and beautiful after couple of days.

When you say “no one died”, you mean no one died from smoke where you live? Can you really be sure? People do die from poor air quality.

And people have definitely died in those fires that sent you that smoke. And hundreds have lost their homes and property. And hundreds of thousands of people have had to evacuate. And about 67,000 square miles have burned already this year in Canada, about 5% of all of Canada’s forest land, and the most ever in one year in recorded history.

But that’s probably all within the margin of normal variation, right? Perfectly normal, for sure. And you personally are enjoying the sunsets, so it’s all good.

 

[jderimig]

Pretty sure Florida will be under water before California is.

I am pretty sure it won't. There is this thing called civil engineering. I am sure mankind will be able to keep up with 35mm of sea level rise per decade. Amsterdam has been 2000 mm below sea level since the 1600's. Its a nice place, nicer than LA.

 

[jderimig]

And you personally are enjoying the sunsets, so it’s all good.

They're gorgeous.

 

[cerving]

One issue that I have with mandating electric cars is that they may not be "the" solution to the carbon problem. Hydrogen, either burned or in fuel cells, could be a highly viable option. If somebody comes up with a way to produce it relatively easily in high volume, particularly locally so it doesn't have to be transported long distances, H2 infrastructure could be built up much more readily than electric because it won't require massive power generation and grid upgrades.

My concern is that those ridiculously expensive power/grid upgrades will happen spurred on by pressure from the auto manufacturers and "green" lobbies, then become unnecessary... leaving us taxpayers to foot the bill since it's likely to be highly subsidized. It's like buying a VCR in the '80's... BetaMax or VHS? And the ultimate answer was... streaming over the Internet.

 

[jderimig]

One issue that I have with mandating electric cars is that they may not be "the" solution to the carbon problem. Hydrogen, either burned or in fuel cells, could be a highly viable option. If somebody comes up with a way to produce it relatively easily in high volume, particularly locally so it doesn't have to be transported long distances, H2 infrastructure could be built up much more readily than electric because it won't require massive power generation and grid upgrades.

My concern is that those ridiculously expensive power/grid upgrades will happen spurred on by pressure from the auto manufacturers and "green" lobbies, then become unnecessary... leaving us taxpayers to foot the bill since it's likely to be highly subsidized. It's like buying a VCR in the '80's... BetaMax or VHS? And the ultimate answer was... streaming over the Internet.

A fast transition to electrify transportation will require massive infrastructure projects (construction, mining, transportation, manufacturing) that will cause HUGE CO2 emissions above and beyond the use case of doing nothing. How will it take to breakeven when actual net CO2 reduction from EV reduced emissions are realized? 2060, 2080? And long after those $trillons are spent destabilizing our energy supply and the disruption of life will we see any actual change in the course of climate change? 2090? 2110?

What do the models say?

 

[jderimig]

One issue that I have with mandating electric cars is that they may not be "the" solution to the carbon problem. Hydrogen, either burned or in fuel cells, could be a highly viable option. If somebody comes up with a way to produce it relatively easily in high volume, particularly locally so it doesn't have to be transported long distances, H2 infrastructure could be built up much more readily than electric because it won't require massive power generation and grid upgrades.
.

The issue with hydrogen is that the round trip efficiency from electricity->H2->electricity is between 18% to 46%. It would take more electrical power generation capacity to run the cars on an H2 cycle than an electricity->battery cycle. Perhaps signicantly more. Also any green sources of electricity generating H2 results in >50% getting lost meaning less of its available to run factories, air conditioners and charging grid batteries whenever they become economically viable.

The lowest cost method of generating H2 is splitting it from natural gas, but to be green you need carbon capture on that process.

 

[b.wieting]

In other words, "pollute all you want, provided that you are willing to pay for the privilege" which, to no one's surprise, does absolutely ZERO to help "Global Warming / Climate Change", whatsoever . . . It's all a giant "global scam" to "redistribute wealth" !

Look at India . . . They have "air you could cut with a knife" !

View attachment 591093

View attachment 591095

Not so different than a bad day in 1960s LA county. I remember sitting in Mr Gould's 5th period chemistry class, looking out the door (no AC in public schools then, we had windows and doors) south across the parking lot, barely able to see the buildings across Firestone Blvd.

 

[JPalmer621]

Remember that he co2 equation. CO2 produced — CO2 absorbed by the environment = change. Our atmosphere is 77% nitrogen 21% oxygen. That leaves 2% for all the other gases. Co2 has gone from 0.3% to 0.4% of our atmosphere over the last 100 years. Maybe something else is going on. Just my opinion

 

[jderimig]

Remember that he co2 equation. CO2 produced — CO2 absorbed by the environment = change. Our atmosphere is 77% nitrogen 21% oxygen. That leaves 2% for all the other gases. Co2 has gone from 0.3% to 0.4% of our atmosphere over the last 100 years. Maybe something else is going on. Just my opinion

0.03% to 0.04%

 

[JPalmer621]

Sorry I was off a little

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I am pretty sure it won't. There is this thing called civil engineering. I am sure mankind will be able to keep up with 35mm of sea level rise per decade. Amsterdam has been 2000 mm below sea level since the 1600's. Its a nice place, nicer than LA.

Florida’s geology is different from Amsterdam’s. Florida’s ground is water permeable, so dikes don’t work. The water just comes up through the ground. And even if they did work, what are you going to do? Put a dike around the whole state?

Florida is in deep trouble. The reason Florida homeowner’s insurance has spiked so high and so quickly is that the insurance industry has determined that Florida’s homes have a much higher chance of being destroyed than previously thought.

They're gorgeous.

Well, you’ve found a nice silver lining for yourself in other people’s misery. Good for you.

 

[Tyeeking]

I am pretty sure it won't. There is this thing called civil engineering. I am sure mankind will be able to keep up with 35mm of sea level rise per decade. Amsterdam has been 2000 mm below sea level since the 1600's. Its a nice place, nicer than LA.

I have a lot more confidence in engineers being able to mitigate any negative effects of climate climate change (and help reap the benefits of any climate change) than I do the political class being able to stop any climate change.

 

[jderimig]

Florida is in deep trouble. The reason Florida homeowner’s insurance has spiked so high and so quickly is that the insurance industry has determined that Florida’s homes have a much higher chance of being destroyed than previously thought.

I am all in favor of the free market guiding where people choose to live.