You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

[Marc_G]

My point is, while I generally espouse a relatively liberal perspective, I recognize the administration IS taking this seriously. I use this to point out that accepting the seriousness of what is going on is not / should not at this time be a political issue.

And for the record I was a supporter of the early targeted travel restrictions. I wish more had been done to screen and quarantine entrants to the country.

 

[Ez2cDave]

My point is, while I generally espouse a relatively liberal perspective, I recognize the administration IS taking this seriously. I use this to point out that accepting the seriousness of what is going on is not / should not at this time be a political issue.

And for the record I was a supporter of the early targeted travel restrictions. I wish more had been done to screen and quarantine entrants to the country.

Marc,

I espouse an extremely conservative perspective, all the time . . . At least as much as the Forum will let me get away with - LOL !

You are correct that "politics" should be left out of this situation . . . Unfortunately, we both know that will not happen, in reality, despite our wishes.

Dave F.

 

[neil_w]

That may sound cruel / cold-hearted, but the facts are the facts and the severity of the problem, objectively, can only be measured by the "numbers", overall.

You are relying on a momentary snapshot (if you'll pardon the redundancy) of an exponentially growing problem as your evidence of "the numbers". If that seems OK to you then... well maybe you should just stay away from numbers altogether.

Here are some charts that matter (again, from Worldometer):

 

[Speaknoevil]

This chart from Worldometer seems worse. As of today:

 

[Ez2cDave]

I previously posted the link to "Worldometer" . . . https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus

Dave F.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

The "numbers" are the "numbers" . . . Aside from family, friends, and acquaintances, all other victims have little or no significance, personally, and remain "anonymous" in the big picture.

That may sound cruel / cold-hearted, but the facts are the facts and the severity of the problem, objectively, can only be measured by the "numbers", overall.

Dave F.

You really don’t know what the numbers are, or what they’re ultimately going to be. Nobody does. The uncertainty is a big source of anxiety for people.

 

[CalebJ]

I previously posted the link to "Worldometer" . . . https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus

Dave F.

Yes, you did. Right next to a chart of useless outdated information and making the point that this thing was entirely overblown.

 

[lakeroadster]

Sure - opinions vary. Facts, however, don't carry one iota how you feel about them. Spreading nonsense is pretty damn reprehensible under the circumstances.

Nonsense? You didn't look at the data in the link, did you? Those are the facts.

What you are hearing and watching on the mainstream media is a mixture of fact, interpretation and agenda.

 

[CalebJ]

I've looked at the data you shared. Which part didn't you understand about it? If you think the steps we're taking are an over reaction, you clearly aren't understanding the data.

 

[Ez2cDave]

I've looked at the data you shared. Which part didn't you understand about it? If you think the steps we're taking are an over reaction, you clearly aren't understanding the data.

Is that the same data you called "bogus" ? . . . If so, clearly, you must have something better.

OK, Caleb . . . Where is YOUR data ? Give us a link to the source . . . Put up or shut up !

Whether the deaths are 7,100 or 71,000,000, the "numbers", at worst, are less than 1% of the world's population of 7.7 BILLION people . . . ( 7,100 is less than 1/000 of 1% . . . 71,000,000 is less than 1% )

The math is irrefutable . . . It is a simple ratio . . . The number of reported deaths may vary widely, but not THAT widely.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack

Dave F.

 

[kuririn]

As others have stated, this is a novel (i.e. new) virus and the numbers are of a pandemic that is just starting to explode worldwide. If you project from the experiences of Wuhan and Italy, there will be an exponential explosion when the disease spreads if steps aren't taken to reduce exposure. That is what "flattening the curve" means, mitigating the # of cases so that the US health care system is not overwhelmed. In China they had to build two new hospitals in a matter of days to deal with the numbers. In both Italy and China they had to do complete lockdowns. These are facts, not agenda.
US is lucky in that we can see what is happening in China and Italy and can prepare.
The numbers for Covid-19 in that chart you guys cite will change dramatically in the coming days/weeks.
Maybe then you'll take it seriously.
BTW POTUS, Dr. Fauci and other officials held a lengthy press conference today.
Announced new measures to try to slow the spread of the virus.
At least they are taking it seriously.

 

[CalebJ]

As others have stated, this is a novel (i.e. new) virus and the numbers are of a pandemic that is just starting to explode worldwide. If you project from the experiences of Wuhan and Italy, there will be an exponential explosion when the disease spreads if steps aren't taken to reduce exposure. That is what "flattening the curve" means, mitigating the # of cases so that the US health care system is not overwhelmed. In China they had to build two new hospitals in a matter of days to deal with the numbers. In both Italy and China they had to do complete lockdowns. These are facts, not agenda.
US is lucky in that we can see what is happening in China and Italy and can prepare.
The numbers for Covid-19 in that chart you guys cite will change dramatically in the coming days/weeks.
Maybe then you'll take it seriously.
BTW POTUS, Dr. Fauci and other officials held a lengthy press conference today.
Announced new measures to try to confine the virus.
At least they are taking it seriously.

If the numbers aren't something considered serious by Dave, I don't suppose that's fixable. I consider the potential of a few hundred thousand deaths to be worth trying to avoid. Perhaps to him that's simply unnecessary?

 

[Speaknoevil]

Is that the same data you called "bogus" ? . . . If so, clearly, you must have something better.

OK, Caleb . . . Where is YOUR data ? Give us a link to the source . . . Put up or shut up !

Whether the deaths are 7,100 or 71,000,000, the "numbers", at worst, a less than 1% of the world's population of 7.7 BILLION people . . .( 7,100 is less than 1/000 of 1% . . . 71,000,000 is less than 1% )

The math is irrefutable . . . It is a simple ratio . . . The number of reported deaths may vary widely, but not THAT widely.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack

Dave F.

Actually I believe the total world population is irrevelant now. The proper stat is 7,000 dead in 182,000 cases, or 3.8% death rate.Then only later does total world population matter when it goes down by ~300,000,000 (3.8%, if something isn't done).

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Is that the same data you called "bogus" ? . . . If so, clearly, you must have something better.

OK, Caleb . . . Where is YOUR data ? Give us a link to the source . . . Put up or shut up !

Whether the deaths are 7,100 or 71,000,000, the "numbers", at worst, a less than 1% of the world's population of 7.7 BILLION people . . .( 7,100 is less than 1/000 of 1% . . . 71,000,000 is less than 1% )

The math is irrefutable . . . It is a simple ratio . . . The number of reported deaths may vary widely, but not THAT widely.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack

Dave F.

This is a really bizarre conversation to be having. You are right that 7,100 is less than .0001% of 7.7 billion. The math on that checks out. And 71,000,000 is less than 1%. No one disputes that.

But 7,100 is just a snapshot in time of an accelerating crisis. And 71,000,000 is a made-up hypothetical number. Neither of those numbers really tell us anything about where we will end up. And even if they did, that’s not really how most people would evaluate the seriousness of a humanitarian crisis. The idea that 71,000,000 people is not very significant because it is only 1% of ALL people is kind of crazy in my opinion. Again, it’s just a made-up hypothetical number, so it doesn’t mean much, but I think if you asked just about anyone else on the planet if 71,000,000 million deaths sounded serious, they would say it was the most serious thing they had ever heard of in their life.

 

[heada]

Between direct siblings, nephews, nieces, grand-nephews and grand-nieces, I have about 50 people I love. I'm really not liking it that I have a 50/50 chance that one will die based on the 1% odds. They may not matter to you, but they mean a whole lot to me.

 

[Ez2cDave]

This is a really bizarre conversation to be having. You are right that 7,100 is less than .0001% of 7.7 billion. The math on that checks out. And 71,000,000 is less than 1%. No one disputes that.

But 7,100 is just a snapshot in time of an accelerating crisis. And 71,000,000 is a made-up hypothetical number. Neither of those numbers really tell us anything about where we will end up. And even if they did, that’s not really how most people would evaluate the seriousness of a humanitarian crisis. The idea that 71,000,000 people is not very significant because it is only 1% of ALL people is kind of crazy in my opinion. Again, it’s just a made-up hypothetical number, so it doesn’t mean much, but I think if you asked just about anyone else on the planet if 71,000,000 million deaths sounded serious, they would say it was the most serious thing they had ever heard of in their life.

If you go back up, earlier in the thread, you will see that I never said that this is not serious. I did, however, say that this does not justify a global "panic". The coronavirus is NOT an "extinction-level" pandemic of Apocalyptic proportions. I am simply saying that panicking and buying every scrap of toilet paper on the planet is NOT the answer.

Frankly, we are prepared to stay "off the streets" for 4 months, comfortably, 6 months, uncomfortably.

THIS is MY suggestion : "Bug-In", until things settle down. ( NOTE : I am NOT a "Doomsday Prepper", nor a "Zombie Apocalypse" person )

(1) Limit public contact, as much as possible.
(2) Wash your hand frequently & use hand sanitizer, if soap & water is not available.
(3) Keep your hands away from your face.
(4) Stock up on Foods with long shelf-lives ( Peanut Butter, Rice, Beans, Pasta, Ramen Noodles, etc.)
(5) Buy foods that tolerate freezing well ( Beef, Poultry, Pork, Hot Dogs, Frozen Vegetables, etc. )
(6) Stock up a supply of Drinking Water, just in case. ( Buy flavored Drink Mixes, Coffee, & Tea )
(7) Fill your Propane cylinders, just in case.
(8) Obtain & Store extra fuel for vehicle(s), just in case.
(9) Obtain several months worth of medications, in advance. ( ask your doctor, for prescription med's )
(10) Obtain First Aid supplies and know how to use them.
(11) Obtain Flashlights, Radio's and a supply of Batteries for them. ( store vehicles in garage )
(12) Fill a couple of "Hazardous Waste" bags with old clothes and throw them out on your front step, if things start getting "sketchy".
(13) Tell no one what you have or your plans and do nothing to draw undue attention to yourselves.
(14) Be prepared to defend yourself & your family. ( methods, means, & levels vary widely )
(15) Have a good supply of cash on hand, just in case.
(16) Expect the unexpected !

Dave F.

 

[cwbullet]

The data is skewed by testing or selection bias. I am very suspect of much of the data we have around the world. Around the globe, the death rate is 3.8% but it is only 2.1% in the US. Are we better at treating it? Maybe, but it is most likely just a testing bias in the US. We are testing more and probably testing more people who are likely to survive to dilute the death rate.

I can't say for sure, but that is a guess.

 

[Ez2cDave]

A sample "Bug-In" supplies list . . . ( not "endorsed" by me - LOL ! )

https://roguepreparedness.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Bug-In-Supplies-Checklist.pdf

Dave F.

 

[Rob702Martinez]

This week has been a little edgy. The mods have had to warn, thread ban, and ban several folks. I felt it was time for a posted warning.

People got banned?

 

[cwbullet]

People got banned?

Didn't noticed?

 

[Rob702Martinez]

Didn't noticed?

Dang, nope.

 

[Ez2cDave]

More than 3,800 passengers on a cruise ship disembarked in Miami without screening for COVID-19, despite a previous traveler testing positive days earlier

https://www.yahoo.com/news/more-3-800-passengers-cruise-203139303.html

More "mixed signals" on Coronavirus . . . From extreme caution to none at all !

Dave F.

 

[Steve Shannon]

From the people who work on this, Dr. Fauci says it’s ten times more deadly than the flu (flu is 0.1% but higher numbers than 1% are frequently mentioned) and Dr. Birx says it’s 2-3 times as contagious. Those numbers alone should be enough to inform us that a much greater effort is needed to avoid a significant number of deaths. I’m glad to see the government taking aggressive measures. Yup, it’s going to be a hardship for everyone, some much worse than others. We can whine and fight or we can look for ways to help each other. That’s completely up to us.

 

[cwbullet]

From the people who work on this, Dr. Fauci says it’s ten times more deadly than the flu (flu is 0.1% but higher numbers than 1% are frequently mentioned) and Dr. Birx says it’s 2-3 times as contagious. Those numbers alone should be enough to inform us that a much greater effort is needed to avoid a significant number of deaths. I’m glad to see the government taking aggressive measures. Yup, it’s going to be a hardship for everyone, some much worse than others. We can whine and fight or we can look for ways to help each other. That’s completely up to us.

You are right. The measures may ramp even more. It is important to understand that they are doing this to keep us safe as a group and not to inconvenience us.

 

[Ez2cDave]

People got banned?

Yep and a few more will be too, if they keep trolling MY thread . . . Take the hint.

Dave F.

 

[Mushtang]

Do the people that start threads have the ability to ban others from them? That would have been a handy feature to have years ago when I had a major troll in one of my build threads.

 

[tim cubbedge]

Do the people that start threads have the ability to ban others from them? That would have been a handy feature to have years ago when I had a major troll in one of my build threads.

No, only moderators can do that. They can also ban members from threads they started.

 

[Ez2cDave]

If the numbers aren't something considered serious by Dave, I don't suppose that's fixable. I consider the potential of a few hundred thousand deaths to be worth trying to avoid. Perhaps to him that's simply unnecessary?

"WE" ( in the collective sense, not just you ) need to remember that this is MY thread . . . If "YOU" ( in the collective sense, not just you ) continue to make "personal comments" about me, rather than talking about the coronavirus, I will ask Chuck to "escort people off" of MY thread . . . Otherwise, just stick to the coronavirus situation!

Dave F.

 

[CalebJ]

If the moderators (not -you-) have an issue with injecting a dose of humanity into your thread, it's entirely their call.

 

[Ez2cDave]

Back in the real world . . .

It is better to be well-stocked and prepared / willing to take whatever action is necessary to protect one's family, than to be caught without.

Real "panic" has not set in, yet. When it does, a lack of toilet paper will mean nothing by comparison, when the panic to buy food, water, & fuel starts.

People are unsure and confused now ( hence the "toilet paper wars" in the stores ) . . . Once they feel genuinely threatened, things will "go south" quickly.

Stay safe, prepare for the "worst case scenario", and pray that day never comes !

Dave F.