Gotcha. I was concerned at what your 'third fin' was and why you had a grip on it for your sake.
You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus
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Never entered my mind.
My main concerns stem from a common origin . . . We have not been told the truth and we are not being told the truth.
(1) China has not accurately reported the numbers of cases / deaths or the severity of the R0 of the coronavirus.
(2) Other countries, including the USA, are, likely, acting in a similar fashion, in order to prevent wide-spread panic.
The end result is that we do not know the truth and facts are being concealed from us. So, people tend to choose to believe whatever
narrative aligns with their own beliefs or agendas. As a result, much misinformation circulates and no one knows whom to truly trust
and believe.
Dave F.
(1) China has not accurately reported the numbers of cases / deaths or the severity of the R0 of the coronavirus.
(2) Other countries, including the USA, are, likely, acting in a similar fashion, in order to prevent wide-spread panic.
The end result is that we do not know the truth and facts are being concealed from us. So, people tend to choose to believe whatever
narrative aligns with their own beliefs or agendas. As a result, much misinformation circulates and no one knows whom to truly trust
and believe.
Dave F.
R0: How Scientists Quantify the Intensity of an Outbreak Like Coronavirus and Its Pandemic Potential
R0 for coronavirus spreading from China
A number of groups have estimated R0 for this new coronavirus. The Imperial College group has estimated R0 to be somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5. Scientists from the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Automation and the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences have estimated R0 to be much higher, at 4.08.
These differences are not surprising; there’s uncertainty about many of the factors go into estimating R0, such as in estimating the number of cases, especially early on in an outbreak.
Based on these current estimates, projections of the future number of cases of coronavirus are fraught with high levels of uncertainty and will likely be somewhat inaccurate.
The difficulties arise for a number of reasons.
First, the basic properties of this viral pathogen – like the infectious period – are as yet unknown.
Second, researchers don’t know how many mild cases or infections that don’t result in symptoms have been missed by surveillance but nevertheless are spreading the disease.
Third, the majority of people who come down with this new coronavirus do recover, and are likely then immune to coming down with it again. It’s unclear how the changing susceptibility of the population will affect the future spread of infection. This is especially important in Wuhan, the origin of the epidemic.
Finally, and likely the most important reason, no one knows the future impacts of current disease control measures. Epidemiologists’ current estimates of R0 say nothing about how measures such as isolation or quarantine efforts will influence the virus’ future spread.
https://sph.umich.edu/pursuit/2020posts/how-scientists-quantify-outbreaks.html
Well, at least it doesn't have the R0 of Measles . . .
R0 for coronavirus spreading from China
A number of groups have estimated R0 for this new coronavirus. The Imperial College group has estimated R0 to be somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5. Scientists from the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Automation and the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences have estimated R0 to be much higher, at 4.08.
These differences are not surprising; there’s uncertainty about many of the factors go into estimating R0, such as in estimating the number of cases, especially early on in an outbreak.
Based on these current estimates, projections of the future number of cases of coronavirus are fraught with high levels of uncertainty and will likely be somewhat inaccurate.
The difficulties arise for a number of reasons.
First, the basic properties of this viral pathogen – like the infectious period – are as yet unknown.
Second, researchers don’t know how many mild cases or infections that don’t result in symptoms have been missed by surveillance but nevertheless are spreading the disease.
Third, the majority of people who come down with this new coronavirus do recover, and are likely then immune to coming down with it again. It’s unclear how the changing susceptibility of the population will affect the future spread of infection. This is especially important in Wuhan, the origin of the epidemic.
Finally, and likely the most important reason, no one knows the future impacts of current disease control measures. Epidemiologists’ current estimates of R0 say nothing about how measures such as isolation or quarantine efforts will influence the virus’ future spread.
https://sph.umich.edu/pursuit/2020posts/how-scientists-quantify-outbreaks.html
Well, at least it doesn't have the R0 of Measles . . .
Last edited:
The epidemic is not over until the R0 is below 1.0!
I am going on the assumption of a fully aerosolized transmission with a size small enough to make most masks ineffective or only partially effective if high quality and worn/maintained properly with eye protection. Even partially effective is much better than nothing.
If you are out and about with a nine day viral surface life you will ideally need nine masks on a daily rotation. Let them dry out (It will be much quicker under UV light if you have one, sunshine is also nice but slower) If it goes on longer and you are stuck indoors use a perfume bottle with a bleach solution and give the mask a light misting and let dry. Do not make it wet as that will degrade the weave. Lots of gloves will need care if supply runs low. Bleach is your friend. Take the time to do it right. The model rocket folks will come through this with shining colors.
I am going on the assumption of a fully aerosolized transmission with a size small enough to make most masks ineffective or only partially effective if high quality and worn/maintained properly with eye protection. Even partially effective is much better than nothing.
If you are out and about with a nine day viral surface life you will ideally need nine masks on a daily rotation. Let them dry out (It will be much quicker under UV light if you have one, sunshine is also nice but slower) If it goes on longer and you are stuck indoors use a perfume bottle with a bleach solution and give the mask a light misting and let dry. Do not make it wet as that will degrade the weave. Lots of gloves will need care if supply runs low. Bleach is your friend. Take the time to do it right. The model rocket folks will come through this with shining colors.
Trust me, a lot of the reporting is not based on fact but inflammatory reporting meant to sell adds. I agree China has not been forthcoming but the WHO is about as reliable as the National Inquirer. The news last night reported the US government has 30 million or fewer masks and needed 300 million. The 30 million is based on a single report and does not include CDC, Military, FEMA, or State storage. I am not saying it is enough, sometimes someone needs to throw a flag.
Secondly, the virus does not typically survive 9 days on all surfaces. The quote is: "Some coronaviruses can linger on some surfaces for up to 9 days." It has been misquoted. The largest risk in surfaces that are not cleaned and are exposed to low levels of UV light. We are bombarded by this stuff all day long and it kills the virus. This is why both Coronavirus and Influenza infections are less common in the summer months.
If you are concerned, bring Lysol or bleach wipes to clean pubic surfaces. Better yet, wash your hands or use purel after you touch anything and do not shake hands.
The only thing that worries me is the mass hysteria.
Secondly, the virus does not typically survive 9 days on all surfaces. The quote is: "Some coronaviruses can linger on some surfaces for up to 9 days." It has been misquoted. The largest risk in surfaces that are not cleaned and are exposed to low levels of UV light. We are bombarded by this stuff all day long and it kills the virus. This is why both Coronavirus and Influenza infections are less common in the summer months.
If you are concerned, bring Lysol or bleach wipes to clean pubic surfaces. Better yet, wash your hands or use purel after you touch anything and do not shake hands.
The only thing that worries me is the mass hysteria.
The most reasoned comment I have seen in any of the Coronavirus threads.
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Chuck,
I agree . . .
The obvious lies from China, coupled with widely-varying information, from numerous sources, and the problem of not knowing whom to really trust, all compounds the problem.
Dave F.
Okay, this worries me slightly more than the mass hysteria.
I left this morning. Very scary not none sick people wearing masks. I do not think they understand the prevention measures.
I saw a lady wipe down her airline seat with sanitizer wipes and she was wearing a full face mask (not an M95). Just wow. I would say probably 10-20 total wearing masks. No appeared sick.
Just so you know the n95 is most effective on an ill person.
Just so you know the n95 is most effective on an ill person.
A CDC lab in Atlanta is being investigated for potential contamination in its coronavirus test kits
www.aol.com/article/news/2020/03/02/a-cdc-lab-in-atlanta-is-being-investigated-for-potential-contamination-in-its-coronavirus-test-kits/23938357/
Dave F.
www.aol.com/article/news/2020/03/02/a-cdc-lab-in-atlanta-is-being-investigated-for-potential-contamination-in-its-coronavirus-test-kits/23938357/
Dave F.
dr wogz
Fly caster
I find it funny, some I've seen who wear a mask but have it nicely tucked up under their nose.. (Their nose is uncovered!)
Maybe they are mouth breathers!
Personally, I find that tragic, since they naively believe that they are safe.
Dave F.
Dave F.
California: Orange County Declares State Of Emergency As LA Flight Attendant Tests Positive For CoronaVirus
https://sonsoflibertymedia.com/cali...ight-attendant-tests-positive-for-coronavirus
Dave F.
https://sonsoflibertymedia.com/cali...ight-attendant-tests-positive-for-coronavirus
Dave F.
A county with no known cases of coronavirus declares a state of emergency. I wonder how much in state and federal tax payer funds they seek with that declaration and how they intend to use the funds? Now that would be an interesting story.
Actually, San Francisco declared a state of emergency ( last Tuesday ), before Orange County, also without any known cases of Coronavirus.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/health/san-francisco-coronavirus-emergency-declaration/index.html
Dave F.
I’m starting to get hopeful that I’ll have a lot of stretching out room on my flight to London in a couple weeks.
heada
Well-Known Member
My parents just flew to Seattle for my baby brother's Navy officer commissioning ceremony 
They fly back tomorrow and go into isolation for a few weeks. If they did get infected while there, the outlook isn't good since they're both in their 70s
They fly back tomorrow and go into isolation for a few weeks. If they did get infected while there, the outlook isn't good since they're both in their 70s
My parents just flew to Seattle for my baby brother's Navy officer commissioning ceremony
I wish your parents and you well, Aaron.
I work in the airline industry. The tray tables are only cleaned
(if at all) at night. People even change babies on them. They are one of the most germ covered surfaces in the plane. It is wise to clean them along with anything you can reach or touch while seated. Carry with you a little bottle of hand sanitizer and use it. Not just for Corona but colds, flu etc...
John,
Does the TSA have a "problem" with Hand Sanitizer, since it's, technically, a "flammable liquid" ?
Dave F.
ThirstyBarbarian
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Maybe. Or maybe it’s canceled. A lot of flights are being canceled.
That will definitely pose problems for travelers, particularly those on "business trips", rather than vacations.
Dave F.
heada
Well-Known Member
Just this morning, our company sent out a memo limiting international travel and restricting it to some locations entirely. 100,000 employees spread over just about every country in the world. Our work-from-home policy was changed to encourage anyone that wants to work from home to do so. This from one of the largest pharma companies in the world.
Good question, I'll find out for sure and get back.
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