Winston
Lorenzo von Matterhorn
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2009
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Why Alien Life Will Be Robotic
If life off Earth exists it has probably transitioned to machine intelligence.
OCTOBER 22, 2015
https://nautil.us/issue/29/scaling/why-alien-life-will-be-robotic
On the following simulation, it's a case of "Thank you, Captain Obvious..."
Luck Played a Major Role in Keeping Earth Fit for Life
28 Feb 2021
https://scitechdaily.com/luck-played-a-major-role-in-keeping-earth-fit-for-life/
Previous computer modeling work on Earth habitability has involved modeling a single planet: Earth. But, inspired by discoveries of exoplanets (those outside of our solar system) that reveal that there are billions of Earth-like planets in our galaxy alone, a Southampton scientist took a novel approach to investigating a big question: what has led Earth to remain life-sustaining for so long?
To explore this, Professor Tyrrell tapped into the power of the University of Southampton’s Iridis supercomputing facility to run simulations looking at how 100,000 randomly different planets responded to random climate-altering events spread out across three billion years, until they reached a point where they lost their habitability. Each planet was simulated 100 times, with different random events each time.
Having accrued a vast set of results, he then looked to see whether habitability persistence was restricted to just a few planets which were always capable of sustaining life for three billion years, or instead was spread around many different planets, each of which only sometimes stayed habitable for this period.
The results of the simulation were very clear. Most of those planets which remained life-sustaining throughout the three billion year period only had a probability, not a certainty, of staying habitable. Many instances were of planets which usually failed in the simulations and only occasionally remained habitable. Out of a total population of 100,000 planets, nine percent (8,700) were successful at least once – of those, nearly all (about 8,000) were successful fewer than 50 times out of 100 and most (about 4,500) were successful fewer than 10 times out of 100.
The study results suggest chance is a major factor in determining whether planets, such as Earth, can continue to nurture life over billions of years. Professor Tyrrell concludes: “We can now understand that Earth stayed suitable for life for so long due, at least in part, to luck. For instance, if a slightly larger asteroid had hit Earth, or had done so at a different time, then Earth may have lost its habitability altogether.
Why Captain Obvious? An excellent book first published 21 years ago:
Rare Earth: Why Complex Life is Uncommon in the Universe
https://www.amazon.com/Rare-Earth-Complex-Uncommon-Universe/dp/0387952896/
And on the use of RF-based SETI to find technological civilizations. Forget it IMO. Years ago I saw a question asked on-line of one of the premiere RF SETI guys: "How far away could we detect our own RF emissions using our current technology?" The answer was one light year. ONE measly light year.
Now, consider that it is highly likely that we are not the intelligent species which has been around the longest. Imagine our technology, assuming we're still around, just 1000 years from now. Then consider some other intelligent species which has been around for 1, 10, 100, 1000 million years longer than us. I've seen a claim which is based upon fact that even we will soon not be able to hear our own RF leakage even a mere one light year away because of advanced modulation methods like frequency hopping spread spectrum and the use of fiber optics. Imagine what they'd be using, possibly something currently undetectable to us.
So, basically, a technological civilization would have to stupidly high power directional beam their presence, scanned in every direction, into an "unknown neighborhood" where some other far more advanced civilization may see them as lowly, inferior forms of life to be studied with as much care as we study lab rats. And for even that to happen, the timing has to be just right, not just merely looking in the right place at the right time, but at just the right time where both civilizations were using basically the same technologies known by both.
So, I am not the least bit surprised that we have "heard" nothing and don't think that proves there's no one out there. I think that atmospheric gas via spectroscopic analysis will be the best way to detect life elsewhere, not only our form of life, but technological life although as technology becomes more advanced perhaps any technology-induced atmospheric effects might become less pronounced - for example, fusion power eliminating CO2 emissions.
If life off Earth exists it has probably transitioned to machine intelligence.
OCTOBER 22, 2015
https://nautil.us/issue/29/scaling/why-alien-life-will-be-robotic
On the following simulation, it's a case of "Thank you, Captain Obvious..."
Luck Played a Major Role in Keeping Earth Fit for Life
28 Feb 2021
https://scitechdaily.com/luck-played-a-major-role-in-keeping-earth-fit-for-life/
Previous computer modeling work on Earth habitability has involved modeling a single planet: Earth. But, inspired by discoveries of exoplanets (those outside of our solar system) that reveal that there are billions of Earth-like planets in our galaxy alone, a Southampton scientist took a novel approach to investigating a big question: what has led Earth to remain life-sustaining for so long?
To explore this, Professor Tyrrell tapped into the power of the University of Southampton’s Iridis supercomputing facility to run simulations looking at how 100,000 randomly different planets responded to random climate-altering events spread out across three billion years, until they reached a point where they lost their habitability. Each planet was simulated 100 times, with different random events each time.
Having accrued a vast set of results, he then looked to see whether habitability persistence was restricted to just a few planets which were always capable of sustaining life for three billion years, or instead was spread around many different planets, each of which only sometimes stayed habitable for this period.
The results of the simulation were very clear. Most of those planets which remained life-sustaining throughout the three billion year period only had a probability, not a certainty, of staying habitable. Many instances were of planets which usually failed in the simulations and only occasionally remained habitable. Out of a total population of 100,000 planets, nine percent (8,700) were successful at least once – of those, nearly all (about 8,000) were successful fewer than 50 times out of 100 and most (about 4,500) were successful fewer than 10 times out of 100.
The study results suggest chance is a major factor in determining whether planets, such as Earth, can continue to nurture life over billions of years. Professor Tyrrell concludes: “We can now understand that Earth stayed suitable for life for so long due, at least in part, to luck. For instance, if a slightly larger asteroid had hit Earth, or had done so at a different time, then Earth may have lost its habitability altogether.
Why Captain Obvious? An excellent book first published 21 years ago:
Rare Earth: Why Complex Life is Uncommon in the Universe
https://www.amazon.com/Rare-Earth-Complex-Uncommon-Universe/dp/0387952896/
And on the use of RF-based SETI to find technological civilizations. Forget it IMO. Years ago I saw a question asked on-line of one of the premiere RF SETI guys: "How far away could we detect our own RF emissions using our current technology?" The answer was one light year. ONE measly light year.
Now, consider that it is highly likely that we are not the intelligent species which has been around the longest. Imagine our technology, assuming we're still around, just 1000 years from now. Then consider some other intelligent species which has been around for 1, 10, 100, 1000 million years longer than us. I've seen a claim which is based upon fact that even we will soon not be able to hear our own RF leakage even a mere one light year away because of advanced modulation methods like frequency hopping spread spectrum and the use of fiber optics. Imagine what they'd be using, possibly something currently undetectable to us.
So, basically, a technological civilization would have to stupidly high power directional beam their presence, scanned in every direction, into an "unknown neighborhood" where some other far more advanced civilization may see them as lowly, inferior forms of life to be studied with as much care as we study lab rats. And for even that to happen, the timing has to be just right, not just merely looking in the right place at the right time, but at just the right time where both civilizations were using basically the same technologies known by both.
So, I am not the least bit surprised that we have "heard" nothing and don't think that proves there's no one out there. I think that atmospheric gas via spectroscopic analysis will be the best way to detect life elsewhere, not only our form of life, but technological life although as technology becomes more advanced perhaps any technology-induced atmospheric effects might become less pronounced - for example, fusion power eliminating CO2 emissions.
in the sea. If the seas crash the O2 goes.
