Kelly,
I've flown a 900 MHz Eggfinder with the 1/4 wave stick antenna to just over 10,000 feet in the nose of a rocket with a metal tip. This was the same rocket depicted in my avatar (which looks very similar to your avatar!). Maintained radio link for the entire flight (until the last 10 feet of descent) at a range of 2 miles from the pad. Picked the signal up again at about 0.5 mile out during recovery.
On a different rocket, without nose cone metal (no ballast or tip), the eggfinder mini (900 Mhz, rubber ducky antenna) tracked the entire flight 13,700 ft up and 4.5 miles away from the pad (unintentionally deployed main chute at the top).
I think you could gather a bunch of anecdotal data and maybe come up with a reasonable conclusion, but a simple ground test may be better suited to test your exact set-up (ballast mass orientation, radio frequency and power). Try with and without a ballast in the nose, and see if the ballast test has significant reduction in ground range. You may want to run the test with the nose in 3 orientations pointing North-South, East-West, Up-Down. If you do this test, I would be interested in seeing your results.