What do you think will happen to the house/apartment rental market?

[psmcginnis5]

More great info on lumber here: https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/what-is-really-happening-with-lumber-pricing/

Imagine being an insurance carrier trying to figure out long term replacement cost methodology given the lumber spike up, now plummeting down.

 

[prfesser]

If they were smart, they would have saved that money from all the free stimulus money the .gov has been slinging around. But I bet most of them said yay, no rent for a while, and the .govt is giving us even more free money. Party time.... spend it on crap, save none of it for later.

Some might do that, but the poor often have to use the stimulus money to stay alive. Food, ridiculously-priced medical care and prescriptions, etc.

We were poor, growing up. 12-14 kids in the house at any given time, and dad was a truck driver. Luckily we lived at a time when inflation had not yet ruined purchasing power. Didn't buy good shoes, we bought the cheapest shoes that looked okay and fitted reasonably well. Most of my clothing was hand-me-downs. A nickel candy bar was an unexpected treat.

Best -- Terry

 

[Kelly]

My prediction is that it will get tougher and tougher to find affordable housing, as governments continue to demonstrate that (1) property owners who choose to rent out their property have virtually no rights, and (2) government policies make it nearly impossible to earn a profit from renting out property. I hear a lot of kvetching about the lack of affordable housing, but the policies that are being pushed seem to be targeted towards ensuring that the supply dries up, as no one will want to be in this business.

 

[Bill S]

Some might do that, but the poor often have to use the stimulus money to stay alive. Food, ridiculously-priced medical care and prescriptions, etc.

We were poor, growing up. 12-14 kids in the house at any given time, and dad was a truck driver. Luckily we lived at a time when inflation had not yet ruined purchasing power. Didn't buy good shoes, we bought the cheapest shoes that looked okay and fitted reasonably well. Most of my clothing was hand-me-downs. A nickel candy bar was an unexpected treat.

Best -- Terry

Not judging, but could part of the reason you grew up poor was 12-14 kids in the household? Kids are pretty expensive.

 

[Kelly]

When I was a grad student, I drained my savings account for a down payment on a house that had been divided up as a triplex. I lived in one (tiny) apartment on the property, and rented out the other two. The income from the renters paid for the mortgage and upkeep on the house. Had this eviction moratorium come at that time, I'm sure that the renters would have stopped paying rent. I would have been unable to pay the mortgage, or any other bills, the bank would have foreclosed on me, and I (not being a renter) would have been evicted from the property and lost my life savings. Meanwhile the deadbeat tenants would have continued to enjoy rent-free accomodations. Where is the logic in that?

A few years ago, with housing prices down, I thought it might be a smart investment to buy an second house and become a landlord again. Unfortunately, the ruling party in my state HATES property owners, and continues to enact policies that deprive landlords of any rights to use property as they wish, or to profit from investing in affordable housing. After some consideration, I felt it probably wasn't a wise time/place for this investment, and put the money elsewhere. Looking at what has happened to landlords since COVID hit, I thank my lucky stars I made that decision.

Meanwhile, the powers that be continue to wonder why there is such a shortage of affordable housing.

 

[boomtube-mk2]

The housing market in Las Vegas is crazy.

Smart move.
Building a vast city, along with its burgeoning population, in the middle of an empty DESERT!

Sooner, rather than later, the water source/s for Las Vegas are going to run dry, they are well . . . see what I did there . . . on their way already with the Colorado River reservoirs so low they had to build new pipes to feed the hydroelectric plants turbines.

Las Vegas could become the next major metropolis to suffer a catastrophic population collapse, perhaps one that's even worse that Detroit's.

 

[Bravo52]

Clearly unconstitutional. Will be injunctioned shortly.

Yes! Clearly a questionable move by the administration (but not surprising) to try to enact a faux moratorium they already know is unconstitutional. biden said ""Well, look, the courts made it clear that the existing moratorium was not constitutional; it wouldn’t stand," so it clearly lacks any integrity and is just a stall tactic. Even CA's efforts are to keep litigants out of court by paying rent (taxes you and me are paying by the way) to stall any civil actions.

 

[boomtube-mk2]

Housing.
Once Upon a Time people bought a house as a place to live in and raise their family, sometimes multiple generations of said family.
Starting sometime around the early '80's more and more people began to see their house as a means to finance at least part of their retirement.
This meant that housing prices HAD to increase and at a ever increasing rate, making it more and more difficult for each succeeding generation of home purchasers to enter the market.

Lending institutes were happy as pigs at a trough with this new paradigm, as it allowed for ever increasing levels of lending, thus debt for their customers.
Insurance providers were happy, as more expensive houses meant more expensive home owner's insurance premiums.
And governments were happy, as more expensive homes meant more income from property taxes.
Thus all of the above had a vested interest in making sure that housing prices increased.

At this point, housing has become something of a Ponzi Scheme, with each new generation of home buyers hoping like hell that they can get in and get out before the scam comes crashing down.

 

[jderimig]

Amazing that sitting POTUS would intentionally violate his oath of office and actually state that when he does it. And crickets from the media and law establishment.

 

[Woody's Workshop]

Like everything else, a decrease in cost is somewhat temporary. Everything always goes up.
I will no longer consider buying a home. Due to my age, credit rating, and the fact I am no longer to take care of a home.
Renting is I'm considering, and we get an increase in rent every year. Typically in the neighborhood of $50.
While income for some of us don't really increase enough to keep up with rising prices, the quality of life drops.
If prices continue to rise, I will be forced to live in a tent in the woods and scavenge for food. And that's no exaggeration!
Between my wife's and my disability, we make less than $1200 a month.
Since out son started working to pay for his tuition this Fall, we lost food assistance.
I'm glad I adapted to eating only once a day a while back. That's all we afford.

 

[Kelly]

And crickets from the media and law establishment.

Now, that's not entirely true.
The Washington Post spoke up about this, and had this to say: "Maybe it's illegal, but it's worth it". So, according to the watchdogs - the guardians of democracy! - a president doing stuff that he (and everyone) knows is illegal is a GOOD thing.

 

[prfesser]

Not judging, but could part of the reason you grew up poor was 12-14 kids in the household? Kids are pretty expensive.

Unfortunately I wasn't able to do anything about the number of siblings...but we all learned from my parents. Only one sibling has four kids (two each from two marriages). The rest of us have either two kids --- after two, you're outnumbered --- or none.

 

[jderimig]

Now, that's not entirely true.
The Washington Post spoke up about this, and had this to say: "Maybe it's illegal, but it's worth it". So, according to the watchdogs - the guardians of democracy! - a president doing stuff that he (and everyone) knows is illegal is a GOOD thing.

Like the "insurrection".

 

[Bill S]

Like the "insurrection".

Its only okay when one party does it. The other one is a bunch of undesirables and deplorables who have to be re-educated. They get put under a microscope and constantly criticized, but the party in favor gets to do what they want.

 

[Bill S]

Unfortunately I wasn't able to do anything about the number of siblings...but we all learned from my parents. Only one sibling has four kids (two each from two marriages). The rest of us have either two kids --- after two, you're outnumbered --- or none.

This is true.

 

[DaHabes]

The housing market in Las Vegas is crazy. There is more demand than inventory. The same thing happened in the early 2000's. We bought a 2000 sq ft house in a new development for $160,000 in 2000 and sold it in 2004 for $335,000. Took the profit and moved to Pahrump. Paid $35k for an acre and built a 2700 sq ft house for $229,000. Our house is now worth about $400,000. The average house price in Vegas is $450,000 and in Pahrump a staggering $350,000. In Vegas the builders are putting houses up as mast as the can. Apartment complexes are going up as fast as well. Rents are skyrocketing. The lot sizes have shrunk dramatically. There are now 3 story houses popping up like mushrooms. They are so close together you can touch 2 houses at the same time. Traffic has gotten worse . In 1991 when we moved to Vegas there were 200,000 people in the valley. Now there is more than 2 million. At one point around 2003 there were 5k people moving here a month. The casinos were building new properties and hiring hundreds. When the bubble burst in 2007/8 the casinos were shedding hundreds a day. I worked for The Mirage's golf course Shadow Creek for 9 years. MGM Mirage was letting 100 people a day go at all 13 properties. I was one of them. The golf industry just about ceased to exist. As long as people keep moving here from California it's going to stay the same as it is now. California is a dirty word here. As soon as there is more inventory than buyers the bubble will burst and a lot of people will get hurt. I have friends in Eugene Or. and they tell me it is the same up there. I have no plans to sell or to move anywhere else. I like having no neighbors close.

What is Vegas going to do when the water runs out?

 

[dr wogz]

Not judging, but could part of the reason you grew up poor was 12-14 kids in the household? Kids are pretty expensive.

many kids was the norm back then (not trying to age / date Prfesser!! )

But:
Farm families had lotsa kids: cheap labour for the running of the farm
Catholics abhor birth control
It was somewhat common for kids to not survive their first few years (whether that is 1-4 yrs or 1-15 yrs..)
And some jurisdictions encouraged large families to increase the [local] population

Large families were common up here; (French) Farming Catholic families..

 

[CalebJ]

Clearly we're doing a great job of focusing on the OP's idea of discussing the housing/rental market rather than politics...

I am looking at this from the marketplace issues, not political. With the eviction moratorium now expired do you think we will see a huge rise in evictions? Do you think this will cause a drop in rental prices as the market will be flooded with rental properties and all the people who have been evicted will be basically blacklisted from renting?

I see this as a lose/lose situation. Renters who get evicted because they can't pay rent will have few options as they will have black marks on their credit reports. Clearly a loss for them. Landlords could have far fewer prospective tenants if they won't rent to people who have been evicted. Also a loss for them. This could be a huge mess. Any thoughts.

 

[Bravo52]

Clearly we're doing a great job of focusing on the OP's idea of discussing the housing/rental market rather than politics...

That's because "politics" is having the biggest impact on the housing/rental market. Just say'n.

 

[jderimig]

Clearly we're doing a great job of focusing on the OP's idea of discussing the housing/rental market rather than politics...

When you subsidize demand and punish supply this is what happens to a market.

 

[Dipstick]

When you subsidize demand and punish supply this is what happens to a market.

Now now, let's not have any of this actual economics stuff here, it'll only clear things up

 

[teepot]

What is Vegas going to do when the water runs out?

The second largest aquifer in the U.S. is just north of here. There has been talk of a pipeline from northern Nevada to Vegas. The state government started water conservation years ago. No more grass lawns. Grass has been removed all over the valley. The biggest water problem is when the water from the Colorado was being divided Nevada had less than a million people in the state. So Nevada got the smallest share. They have been trying to get more for a decade.

 

[boomtube-mk2]

Article on Yahoo were California is going to spend $5.8 Billion to build 42,000 units for the homeless.
That's apx. $138,000 each.

Meanwhile; the rest of us gets to pay for part of it as California plans to use Federal Funds in addition to State.

Hope this works out better for them than their High-Speed Choo-Choo to nowhere.

 

[CalebJ]

Article on Yahoo were California is going to spend $5.8 Billion to build 42,000 units for the homeless.
That's apx. $138,000 each.

Meanwhile; the rest of us gets to pay for part of it as California plans to use Federal Funds in addition to State.

Hope this works out better for them than their High-Speed Choo-Choo to nowhere.

Do you have a link?

 

[boomtube-mk2]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/48532f03-c430-3df6-8869-e732c9767c56/california-to-spend-5-8.html

 

[lakeroadster]

Up here in our sleepy little Colorado mountain area, tourism drives all the decisions made by county commissioners and city officials. They do whatever they can to get more tourists up into the mountains.

It seems everybody talks about the lack of affordable housing, yet every time affordable housing is built, the folks from out of state (mostly Texans) buy them up as a place to live while they are on vacation here.

That has made the value of homes / apartments / rentals / etc. rise to the point that many younger folk who grew up here, can't afford to live here and some folks who have lived here for decades are having to move because they can't afford the real estate taxes.

 

[cerving]

Apparently 39 1/2 million people haven't gotten the word that CA is a terrible place to live, if they did then there wouldn't be a supply-demand issue and "starter" houses in SoCal wouldn't be $700K. $138K each for prefab homeless housing is pretty much the cost of building and furnishing them... they're not each getting a 1 acre plot.

 

[Robert A Jablonski]

I dont watch the news enough to know the whole story as I am over most of it. But the renters are covered but how about the land lords? Are they getting reimbursed or will we see a spike in foreclosures??

 

[Bravo52]

It seems everybody talks about the lack of affordable housing, yet every time affordable housing is built, the folks from out of state (mostly Texans) buy them up as a place to live while they are on vacation here.

That is interesting (and probably anecdotal) regarding the "Texans". I looked at buying a second house in Colorado (I don't live there) and it was cost prohibitive if you were not a resident. Colorado charges "special" sales taxes for people who sell property there but don't actually live there. During my research, since about 2012, most of the folks buying in CO were from California I guess the difference is the Realtor Association of CO didn't distinguish between residents and non-residents who bought/own property in CO. It also showed that as of 2018 most of the folks moving to CO were young (er/ish) than the folks leaving (mostly in the Denver area).

 

[lakeroadster]

That is interesting (and probably anecdotal) regarding the "Texans". I looked at buying a second house in Colorado (I don't live there) and it was cost prohibitive if you were not a resident. Colorado charges "special" sales taxes for people who sell property there but don't actually live there. During my research, since about 2012, most of the folks buying in CO were from California I guess the difference is the Realtor Association of CO didn't distinguish between residents and non-residents who bought/own property in CO. It also showed that as of 2018 most of the folks moving to CO were young (er/ish) than the folks leaving (mostly in the Denver area).

Most folks you are talking about are buying front range real estate... things are different up here at 8,200 feet. Texans seem to like it up here.